2022 NHL Entry Draft Discussion v5

[rt]

Well they did mention Jersey was interested in Chychrun ..maybe there is a deal to be had for the 2nd.?

I’d certainly trade Chychrun for 2nd overall. Doesn’t seem like a great fit for the Devils, though. Maybe if we add 27th and they add Smith?

 

[jmelm]

Seems getting to Montreal by air is a bust.

The PHNXCoyotes crew had to spend a night in Minneapolis because their plane from Denver to MTL couldn’t pressurize. Avs coach Jared Bednar and the Stanley Cup were on the same flight.

Last I heard they finally got out of Minny about 3:00 this afternoon headed to MTL .

Touché

 

[jmelm]

I’d certainly trade Chychrun for 2nd overall. Doesn’t seem like a great fit for the Devils, though. Maybe if we add 27th and they add Smith?

I don't see a fit there (not for #2 anyway). NJD has a lot of LHD coming, starting with Luke Hughes. I know they want to make the playoffs next year, but they know they're not ready to be a legit cup contender. They have time for guys like Hughes, Shakir and others to arrive.

To fill the gap, I could see them maybe adding a veteran D like Chiarot to bridge the gap and wouldn't cost any trade assets. Or they could trade for a lower cost veteran like Brian Dumoulin or Brendan Dillon.

 

[avco]

One former NHL Scout perspective of Draft.

NHL Scout's Analysis: How to prepare a list for the draft table

Former NHL scout Jason Bukala explains the process behind organizing a draft list, and presents what his would look like at an NHL draft table in 2022.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[rt]

I don't see a fit there (not for #2 anyway). NJD has a lot of LHD coming, starting with Luke Hughes. I know they want to make the playoffs next year, but they know they're not ready to be a legit cup contender. They have time for guys like Hughes, Shakir and others to arrive.

To fill the gap, I could see them maybe adding a veteran D like Chiarot to bridge the gap and wouldn't cost any trade assets. Or they could trade for a lower cost veteran like Brian Dumoulin or Brendan Dillon.

I agree. Not sure why NJD keep coming up for Chychrun. DeBrincat? Sure. Chychrun? Not so much.

 

[Grimes]

I agree. Not sure why NJD keep coming up for Chychrun. DeBrincat? Sure. Chychrun? Not so much.

Probably because they were letting in five goals per game at one point so the quick, base level conclusion is they need more defensemen. Once you realize Hughes is coming up on LD it becomes more muddied. But at the flip side I think they want to make a significant improvement somewhere and this 2OA pick is just the icing on the cake. Still have ELC's so why not load up now and figure it out later. You can move a guy like Chychrun. Use him until Hughes is ready and then figured out what to do.

Probably not the best fit but I think NJD is just as motivated to add ANYONE who is top 25 in their position as we are to move Chychrun.

It's like the last two really attractive people in high school having to go to the dance together or else their partners may not look as good as they do.

 

[rt]

Probably because they were letting in five goals per game at one point so the quick, base level conclusion is they need more defensemen. Once you realize Hughes is coming up on LD it becomes more muddied. But at the flip side I think they want to make a significant improvement somewhere and this 2OA pick is just the icing on the cake. Still have ELC's so why not load up now and figure it out later. You can move a guy like Chychrun. Use him until Hughes is ready and then figured out what to do.

Probably not the best fit but I think NJD is just as motivated to add ANYONE who is top 25 in their position as we are to move Chychrun.

It's like the last two really attractive people in high school having to go to the dance together or else their partners may not look as good as they do.

I sure would love to pick 2nd and 3rd. One of Slafkovsky, Wright or Cooley and then Nemec. Would be a very nice way to kick off the rebuild. Haha.

 

[jmelm]

I agree. Not sure why NJD keep coming up for Chychrun. DeBrincat? Sure. Chychrun? Not so much.

I could see them being interested in JC, but not for second overall. If they use the #2 pick to get an elite forward, I could see a JC trade built around other picks & prospects (Holtz + Mukhamadullin + something else).

 

[rt]

I could see them being interested in JC, but not for second overall. If they use the #2 pick to get an elite forward, I could see a JC trade built around other picks & prospects (Holtz + Mukhamadullin + something else).

Holtz+Mukhamadullin is an interesting base.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I don’t think there’s any chance that next year’s top rated prospects and projected finish has any bearing at all on deciding who to select in this draft. 13 months ago Nemec and Jiricik weren’t viewed as Top 5 picks. It was Wright, Lambert and Savoie at 1st-3rd. Three future all-star centers. It’s possible Wright goes behind Nemec and they both Savoie and Lambert don’t go Top 10. And that neither ends up a center. Not to mention nobody figured Montreal fresh off the SC would pick last, and Arizona who tanked harder than any team in history would pick 3rd.

Making 2022 draft evaluations based on 2023 predictions is about as wise as using crystals and horoscopes to decide.

So, you are telling me that scouts don't have video to where they can make side-by-side comparisons of players at 16/17 years old and translate that into what they look like as a draft eligible? Take Cooley at 16/17 vs Matthew Wood at 16/17 yo and if Wood is showing similar traits/skill sets, Wood is right now in the top 18 skaters or so. Cooley has long been in the top 8-10. So, one could suggest that the 2023 draft has a deeper skill set at center and maybe you don't have to go after one this year.

That is the purpose of scouting. Armstrong said exactly what should be said - you are not necessarily looking for the player that can help now, unless a generational talent. You want the player who will have the growth to be that guy in 3-5 years and maintain a high value up to years 10-15.

Regardless of whether you wait for another yr or simply take BPA, there will always be an aspect of crystals and horoscopes. You just have a little more information because your scouts have focused on the previous yr.

To better answer: if we have the choice between the 2022 #1OA or 2023 #1OA, which do you choose? You know your answer is 2023 #1OA because Bedard is that much better than the top players this year. Similar principle. Some years, some players may have maxed out early. Some years, players have barely hit their potential and teams bring it out. I feel like people assume that we can only look at players in a vacuum for the year. If you know this draft is not as strong for certain players or positions and will be stronger next year at those same positions, you have to consider forgoing a certain player this year.

 

[rt]

So, you are telling me that scouts don't have video to where they can make side-by-side comparisons of players at 16/17 years old and translate that into what they look like as a draft eligible? Take Cooley at 16/17 vs Matthew Wood at 16/17 yo and if Wood is showing similar traits/skill sets, Wood is right now in the top 18 skaters or so. Cooley has long been in the top 8-10. So, one could suggest that the 2023 draft has a deeper skill set at center and maybe you don't have to go after one this year.

That is the purpose of scouting. Armstrong said exactly what should be said - you are not necessarily looking for the player that can help now, unless a generational talent. You want the player who will have the growth to be that guy in 3-5 years and maintain a high value up to years 10-15.

Regardless of whether you wait for another yr or simply take BPA, there will always be an aspect of crystals and horoscopes. You just have a little more information because your scouts have focused on the previous yr.

To better answer: if we have the choice between the 2022 #1OA or 2023 #1OA, which do you choose? You know your answer is 2023 #1OA because Bedard is that much better than the top players this year. Similar principle. Some years, some players may have maxed out early. Some years, players have barely hit their potential and teams bring it out. I feel like people assume that we can only look at players in a vacuum for the year. If you know this draft is not as strong for certain players or positions and will be stronger next year at those same positions, you have to consider forgoing a certain player this year.

They absolutely do not decide who to pick in 2022 based on what they think will happen in 2023.

 

[BUX7PHX]

They absolutely do not decide who to pick in 2022 based on what they think will happen in 2023.

That implies that our scouts put their heads in the sand when a 2023 eligible is in a game, and only pay attention when 2022 players are playing. If you have things being equal between a C, RHD, and LHD in this draft, but next year's crop of LHD looks way better, you possibly put LHD lower than the other 2 this year.

I can agree that you don't do this if you are near the playoffs, or a playoff team, because at that point, it becomes a little harder to control. But we are going to be a bottom 6 team next year. We will get a top prospect each yr. If the top 15 is littered with centers for 2023 who are on a similar path to Cooley, and few D are available that show promising growth, then you have to consider that. A lot can change in the year with regard to that, but I guarantee these scouts already have an idea of the relative strength of future drafts and that may come into play some at certain picks. Possibly not for us at #3, but somewhere in draft, a team likely has to look at 2022 vs 2023 eligible and that steers a direction in which to go.

 

[rt]

That implies that our scouts put their heads in the sand when a 2023 eligible is in a game, and only pay attention when 2022 players are playing. If you have things being equal between a C, RHD, and LHD in this draft, but next year's crop of LHD looks way better, you possibly put LHD lower than the other 2 this year.

I can agree that you don't do this if you are near the playoffs, or a playoff team, because at that point, it becomes a little harder to control. But we are going to be a bottom 6 team next year. We will get a top prospect each yr. If the top 15 is littered with centers for 2023 who are on a similar path to Cooley, and few D are available that show promising growth, then you have to consider that. A lot can change in the year with regard to that, but I guarantee these scouts already have an idea of the relative strength of future drafts and that may come into play some at certain picks. Possibly not for us at #3, but somewhere in draft, a team likely has to look at 2022 vs 2023 eligible and that steers a direction in which to go.

It implies they have brains and experience and understand the absolute futility and complete uselessness of what you’re suggesting. Or at least what I think you’re suggesting. I’m skimming.

 

[BUX7PHX]

It implies they have brains and experience and understand the absolute futility and complete uselessness of what you’re suggesting. Or at least what I think you’re suggesting. I’m skimming.

Again, the scouts job is to find the player to have the highest impact for the longest time. That may mean a player eligible now may not have that impact as an eligible player in a year.

Which is worse, the logic that I am stating, or if we took Cutter Gauthier and bypassed Cooley or one of the defenseman, because Gauthier was born in Scottsdale and we want players who are willing to stay in PHX?

What about the Rangers when they let their retiring scout pick Lias Andersson?

I would like to think that my rationale at least is better than those examples of scouts being "smart" or having brains and experience. If your brain tells you that we will likely have a top 5 pick in 2022 (already done) and 2023, and there are centers in the 2023 class with obvious skill that sets them at or ahead of others in the 2022 class, you may not have C as high on the 2022 board. That's all I have been saying.

 

[rt]

Again, the scouts job is to find the player to have the highest impact for the longest time. That may mean a player eligible now may not have that impact as an eligible player in a year.

Which is worse, the logic that I am stating, or if we took Cutter Gauthier and bypassed Cooley or one of the defenseman, because Gauthier was born in Scottsdale and we want players who are willing to stay in PHX?

What about the Rangers when they let their retiring scout pick Lias Andersson?

I would like to think that my rationale at least is better than those examples of scouts being "smart" or having brains and experience. If your brain tells you that we will likely have a top 5 pick in 2022 (already done) and 2023, and there are centers in the 2023 class with obvious skill that sets them at or ahead of others in the 2022 class, you may not have C as high on the 2022 board. That's all I have been saying.

I really have no idea what your point is anymore. Mine is clear; 2023 projections will play an extremely small (nearly non existent) role in Arizona’s 2022 decision making.

 

[YotesFan47]

So, you are telling me that scouts don't have video to where they can make side-by-side comparisons of players at 16/17 years old and translate that into what they look like as a draft eligible? Take Cooley at 16/17 vs Matthew Wood at 16/17 yo and if Wood is showing similar traits/skill sets, Wood is right now in the top 18 skaters or so. Cooley has long been in the top 8-10. So, one could suggest that the 2023 draft has a deeper skill set at center and maybe you don't have to go after one this year.

That is the purpose of scouting. Armstrong said exactly what should be said - you are not necessarily looking for the player that can help now, unless a generational talent. You want the player who will have the growth to be that guy in 3-5 years and maintain a high value up to years 10-15.

Regardless of whether you wait for another yr or simply take BPA, there will always be an aspect of crystals and horoscopes. You just have a little more information because your scouts have focused on the previous yr.

To better answer: if we have the choice between the 2022 #1OA or 2023 #1OA, which do you choose? You know your answer is 2023 #1OA because Bedard is that much better than the top players this year. Similar principle. Some years, some players may have maxed out early. Some years, players have barely hit their potential and teams bring it out. I feel like people assume that we can only look at players in a vacuum for the year. If you know this draft is not as strong for certain players or positions and will be stronger next year at those same positions, you have to consider forgoing a certain player this year.

Conversely, BA said he takes BPA because you can always trade good players later to handle needs. If BA and Co think Cooley is the #1 player but fear there won't be a RD they like next year, but tons of centers better than Cooley, he'll still drafts Cooley and trades for a better RD later.

 

[Llewzaher]

I think the only descision making - if any - regarding 2023 is that it is a better draft.. so you dont trade away a 2023 1st for a 2022 1st ? You want as many darts to throw as possible in 2023..

But as far as what player we draft now .. you take BPA regardless of what is coming down in 2023.. ( my 2 cents )

 

[Jamieh]

Near as I can tell from Twitter and sports networks every team is open to a big trade, lots of teams in on goalies, trade talks are either heating up or cooling off, and no one agrees who's drafting who. It's clear as mud but the clicks keep coming.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I really have no idea what your point is anymore. Mine is clear; 2023 projections will play an extremely small (nearly non existent) role in Arizona’s 2022 decision making.

And I disagree, as I believe scouts and others have their pulse on who is available next year, and since this is going to be a rebuild that requires at least two drafts, plus moving some pieces out like Chychrun, we have to be aware of where strengths and weaknesses lie, especially since we are not going to be competitive.

You brought up examples of brains and experience in scouts, yet, the Rangers taking Andersson was an example where it wasn't even a player comparison on two different drafts. Others have commented how Gauthier could be the pick because of an innocuous quote by BA about getting players who want to stay in PHX and the connection of being born in Scottsdale. If Gauthier is the next best player on our board at 3 and we take him, okay. If he is taken because we want a player with roots in Arizona, but is #8 on our big board, that would be a dumber reason to take a player than what I am suggesting.

For the record, I think we take Cooley, but Jiricek is high on my list and I could see him being the pick. If Jiricek or Nemec is the pick, I could see that because of the movement of Chychrun and because we think center can be filled later this draft or next yr.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Conversely, BA said he takes BPA because you can always trade good players later to handle needs. If BA and Co think Cooley is the #1 player but fear there won't be a RD they like next year, but tons of centers better than Cooley, he'll still drafts Cooley and trades for a better RD later.

And how often do RHD or C of value get traded?

I agree with this logic, but a pick only requires one team making a decision. A trade involves more than 1 team, and no guarantees that a trade can be easily manufactured. As BA and other GMs say, you try and get the foundational pieces in a draft, not via trade or FA. Amateur scouting has to have views beyond just a single draft year.

 

[YotesFan47]

And how often do RHD or C of value get traded?

I agree with this logic, but a pick only requires one team making a decision. A trade involves more than 1 team, and no guarantees that a trade can be easily manufactured. As BA and other GMs say, you try and get the foundational pieces in a draft, not via trade or FA. Amateur scouting has to have views beyond just a single draft year.

I don't fundamentally disagree, teams absolutely have a pulse on multiple years of prospects, but top 6 centers are constantly a need around the league and teams get desperate. When you factor in the sheer number of picks we have over the next 3 drafts, you're going to be picking a few RD that could pan out. Just take the best player and sort position out later.

If I think Cooley is a 2c and the best player in the draft, and Nemec is a 3/4 RD, but RD is shy next draft, I don't take Nemec instead of Cooley.

We are in year 1.5 of our rebuild, something that could take 5+ years of drafting high. Let's just load up with our best assessment of the best talent, regardless of position, and sort things out when it makes sense to do so.

 

[gorsk11]

And how often do RHD or C of value get traded?

I agree with this logic, but a pick only requires one team making a decision. A trade involves more than 1 team, and no guarantees that a trade can be easily manufactured. As BA and other GMs say, you try and get the foundational pieces in a draft, not via trade or FA. Amateur scouting has to have views beyond just a single draft year.

Sorry the players for next years draft have little to know influence on who is being picked this year especially when you are looking at 2 or 3 years development time.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Sorry the players for next years draft have little to know influence on who is being picked this year especially when you are looking at 2 or 3 years development time.

Didn't realize every player was held to a 2-3 yr development timeframe. Players obviously never have faster or shorter paths.

If you see a 16yo 2023 draft eligible center who is skating/play-making at same level as Cooley as a 16yo, would you not consider them to be relative equals as peers, even though one is a year older? Now let's say that same player is currently #12 on the list for 2023 draft prospects. Would it not be wise to apply the scouting knowledge and say that if this player stays even with Cooley in development and moves up to 8th best skater in 2023, then picks 1-7 in 2023 are at or ahead of Cooley in talent level?

I plan on AZ being a top 6 pick in 2023. So, I expect to get a forward who is better than Cooley next year, even if we still take Cooley this year, based on what I know of the 2023 eligible. Or, what if a number of our scouts looked at Cooley and think that his game is developed, but there isn't much room for more. In other words, he is close to peaking, but others still have a lot higher peaks? Thats part of the 2-3 yr development as well. None of these are finished projects and the player taken at 8 could be the best player at end of career.

That's where I keep saying, the scouts are preparing for the 2022 draft, but that doesn't mean that it is in a vacuum and nothing for 2023/futures/other prospect's futures matters. Otherwise, no trades would ever happen, as we wouldn't trade #27 because we have to take on a player that we have to project for use in 2023 and beyond, right? But we can only make projections on the 2022 eligibles right?

People are acting as if though I am stating that the only logic for a 2022 pick is what we think may happen in 2023. It is not a big percentage, but if a scouting group is completely even on 2 players at #3 and one scout says - I recommend picking player A because both players A and B are equals, but the position that player B plays has more and deeper talent next year and the position player A plays has less talent, that could sway the group to player A. It is simply something to take into consideration.

 

[rt]

Didn't realize every player was held to a 2-3 yr development timeframe. Players obviously never have faster or shorter paths.

If you see a 16yo 2023 draft eligible center who is skating/play-making at same level as Cooley as a 16yo, would you not consider them to be relative equals as peers, even though one is a year older? Now let's say that same player is currently #12 on the list for 2023 draft prospects. Would it not be wise to apply the scouting knowledge and say that if this player stays even with Cooley in development and moves up to 8th best skater in 2023, then picks 1-7 in 2023 are at or ahead of Cooley in talent level?

I plan on AZ being a top 6 pick in 2023. So, I expect to get a forward who is better than Cooley next year, even if we still take Cooley this year, based on what I know of the 2023 eligible. Or, what if a number of our scouts looked at Cooley and think that his game is developed, but there isn't much room for more. In other words, he is close to peaking, but others still have a lot higher peaks? Thats part of the 2-3 yr development as well. None of these are finished projects and the player taken at 8 could be the best player at end of career.

That's where I keep saying, the scouts are preparing for the 2022 draft, but that doesn't mean that it is in a vacuum and nothing for 2023/futures/other prospect's futures matters. Otherwise, no trades would ever happen, as we wouldn't trade #27 because we have to take on a player that we have to project for use in 2023 and beyond, right? But we can only make projections on the 2022 eligibles right?

People are acting as if though I am stating that the only logic for a 2022 pick is what we think may happen in 2023. It is not a big percentage, but if a scouting group is completely even on 2 players at #3 and one scout says - I recommend picking player A because both players A and B are equals, but the position that player B plays has more and deeper talent next year and the position player A plays has less talent, that could sway the group to player A. It is simply something to take into consideration.

2%

 

[Heldig]

That would be a pretty crazy day if Chychrun goes for #2, #3 goes for 6 and 12 (bits would have to be added).