News: 2022 Arbitration Mega Thread

[Tasteless Beaver]

Is an offer sheet a possibility here?

Yes, but the draft pick cost would be staggering to get the Flames to let him go. And Tkachuk would be locked into Calgary for a year if the offer was matched.

 

[Forge]

Yes, but the draft pick cost would be staggering to get the Flames to let him go. And Tkachuk wouldn't be locked into Calgary for a year if the offer was matched.

Yep. If tkachuk wants out, the offer sheet is too much of a risk to accept

 

[tarheelhockey]

Yes, but the draft pick cost would be staggering to get the Flames to let him go. And Tkachuk would be locked into Calgary for a year if the offer was matched.

Two firsts, a second, and a third? I would pretty easily give that up for Tkachuk unless my team was in serious lottery contention.

That level of compensation will apply to anything under $10.6M, which is considerably more than his QO. If a team goes for him at $10.6Mx7, are the Flames really matching that? It doesn't seem like a very easy choice on their end.

IMO this is a case where an offer sheet would make a lot of sense for a team like e.g. Ottawa. Adding Tkachuk puts them solidly in middle-range draft territory where those picks won't hurt much, while bringing the brothers together and putting them into playoff contention while giving the fanbase a huge energy boost. And that's just one team, there are several with $10.5M+ in cap space right now.

 

[jkrdevil]

Two firsts, a second, and a third? I would pretty easily give that up for Tkachuk unless my team was in serious lottery contention.

That level of compensation will apply to anything under $10.6M, which is considerably more than his QO. If a team goes for him at $10.6Mx7, are the Flames really matching that? It doesn't seem like a very easy choice on their end.

IMO this is a case where an offer sheet would make a lot of sense for a team like e.g. Ottawa. Adding Tkachuk puts them solidly in middle-range draft territory where those picks won't hurt much, while bringing the brothers together and putting them into playoff contention while giving the fanbase a huge energy boost. And that's just one team, there are several with $10.5M+ in cap space right now.

A one year offer sheet is a lot of risk as you can’t negotiate an extension until January and if things were to go side ways the player can basically renege on any previously agreed to extension. Also, some injuries and other things go sideways you could be looking at giving up your Bedard ticket (it can happen to any team, Tampa missed the playoffs in the middle of this long run in 2017 when Stamkos went down).

Any thing over a year Calgary matches. Anything under $9 million and the player probably doesn’t take because he can just take the QO and force a trade from Calgary (or play out to ufa status).

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Is this a lot?

Seems about average.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Any thing over a year Calgary matches.

That's the part I'm not entirely sure about. $10.6M isn't quite the extreme that it used to be, but it's still a top-7 salary among all players in the NHL. That's even more than they offered Gaudreau. Tkachuk is a hell of a player, but he's not self-evidently worth that much.

Add in the obviously hostile situation of his having signed an offer sheet -- let's say it's to Ottawa where the obvious intent is to join his brother, and Calgary cut that off -- and it can be a really messy decision. Obviously the team holds the cards and it's all business at some level, but it's a hell of a stress-test on the trajectory of the team. If they're looking at a rebuild in the near future, it's arguably worth taking the picks and keeping the long term cap flexibility.

 

[jkrdevil]

That's the part I'm not entirely sure about. $10.6M isn't quite the extreme that it used to be, but it's still a top-7 salary among all players in the NHL. That's even more than they offered Gaudreau. Tkachuk is a hell of a player, but he's not self-evidently worth that much.

Add in the obviously hostile situation of his having signed an offer sheet -- let's say it's to Ottawa where the obvious intent is to join his brother, and Calgary cut that off -- and it can be a really messy decision. Obviously the team holds the cards and it's all business at some level, but it's a hell of a stress-test on the trajectory of the team. If they're looking at a rebuild in the near future, it's arguably worth taking the picks and keeping the long term cap flexibility.

They were willing to offer JG $10.5 mil by most accounts. I think that’s an easy match of Cgy’s part. At the very least they can exceed to offer sheet value if they trade him next year (when they can on a matched sheet) and they have him signed. There is also no trade protection.

If a player signs an offer sheet, at this point it is with the understanding that their current team can match and they are at least content to stay. That kind of makes it a little easier to get past hard feeling. The real leverage point Tkachuk has if he wants to move on is not an offer sheet, but just signing the QO.

 

[Lempo]

Two firsts, a second, and a third? I would pretty easily give that up for Tkachuk unless my team was in serious lottery contention.

That level of compensation will apply to anything under $10.6M, which is considerably more than his QO. If a team goes for him at $10.6Mx7, are the Flames really matching that? It doesn't seem like a very easy choice on their end.

Do remember that if the OS is for more than 5 years, 5 will be used as the divider instead of the actual years.

For an OS of 7x10.6M, the AAV for compensation purposes become 14.84M which means four 1sts.

But on the positive note, Flames aren't matching that.

 

[MXD]

Yeah, it's significant.

By deciding not to file for arbitration, Tkachuk keeps his options open. He can sign his 9 M QO before it expires on Friday and put all the pressure on the Flames on what comes next with UFA coming on July 1st 2023.

OR he can sign a long-term with the Flames.

OR He can decide NOT to sign the QO and open the door to possibly being a holdout in late September and telling the Flames he wants to be traded to a team of his choice that will give him a long-term contract.

Avoiding the holdout scenario is probably why the Flames should bring him to arbitration before tomorrow's 5 PM ET deadline.

Hummmm...
Semantics here, but a contract would be a prerequisite to a holdout, no?

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Hummmm...
Semantics here, but a contract would be a prerequisite to a holdout, no?

Holdout aka unsigned RFA. Same deal.

 

[Lempo]

Hummmm...
Semantics here, but a contract would be a prerequisite to a holdout, no?

You're thinking of the different kind of situation where the signed player is refusing to report to the team. It may be better fit for the word, but.

 

[StreetHawk]

The arb award is gonna be a one year SPC anyway and walk him into UFA just the same as the QO, just a little bit more pissed off.

He doesn't necessarily choose to accept his QO, though it would be a good option for him.

If he has the numbers which he appears to, he could get more in an arbitration award. All agents am have done their homework as to what the best option is for the client. Laine and Tkachuk are ufa in 2023, Dubois not until 2024.

Tkachuk and Laine need to accrue this upcoming season which is their 7th to gain ufa in 2023. If they don’t they won’t be ufa until 2024.

 

[Lempo]

Tkachuk and Laine need to accrue this upcoming season which is their 7th to gain ufa in 2023. If they don’t they won’t be ufa until 2024.

Yes, but it would be a weird and a special situation in which they didn't play this season. They're both 24 now, they won't be 27 on June 30 and eligible for UFA courtesy of age until 2025.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

You need to be on a team's roster for 40 games to earn an accrued season that counts towards UFA.

So in this very unlikely scenario we are discussing, Tkachuk could stay away from the Flames as late as January.

It would be a fascinating situation to watch from afar if it happens this way. It most likely won't obviously. The very likely outcome is he either signs the QO or CGY files for arbitration tomorrow.

 

[Lempo]

So in this very unlikely scenario we are discussing, Tkachuk could stay away from the Flames as late as January.

But, RFAs need to be signed by Dec 1st. Any SPC signed after that date is null and void and the player will miss the whole season.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

But, RFAs need to be signed by Dec 1st. Any SPC signed after that date is null and void and the player will miss the whole season.

Ahhh, this is indeed accurate. Forgot about that.

Still, if the Flames don't have Tkachuk for the 22 games they play before December 1st, that possibly sinks their season. So he could still go down this road and put all kinds of pressure on them to trade him.

 

[Lempo]

Fun notion about CGY electing for arbitration with Tkatchuk, though: CGY's starting offer will have to be at least $9M:

(b) Club-Elected Salary Arbitration For Players Who Receive Qualifying Offers.

(ii) If a Club elects salary arbitration in accordance with this subsection, the Club's offer in salary arbitration must be equal to or higher than the Player's aggregate Paragraph 1 Salary plus Signing, Reporting and Roster Bonuses in the final League Year of the Player's SPC.

 

[Coachcorner]

When will they hear the results and price? Tomorrow?

 

[Seanaconda]

If a player filed for arbitration doesnt the team have the option for one or two years? Or is that not the case with one year left until ufa?

It'd not the case with 1 year till ufa. It's 1 year or none

 

[Lempo]

When will they hear the results and price? Tomorrow?

The hearings will be July 27 to August 11, the decision will be issued within 48 hours after the hearing.

They'll need a bit of time to prepare the evidence on comparable players' salaries and whatnot that they bring to the arbitration to back up their case.

 

[MtoD]

Fun notion about CGY electing for arbitration with Tkatchuk, though: CGY's starting offer will have to be at least $9M:

This is because they will have waited until the second deadline for team's to elect arbitration. If they had taken Tkachuk to arbitration before the first deadline (without tendering a QO), they could have filed for up to a 15% salary reduction.

It's a pretty interesting scenario and I'm not sure Calgary will end up filing for arbitration regardless.

For Tkachuk, I imagine he hasn't signed his QO (or filed for arbitration) because he wants to keep open the option for a long-term deal (either with Calgary or via a trade). Taking his QO or going to arbitration gets him a 1-year deal straight to UFA but at the risk of long-term $$$. I imagine Tkachuk prefers a long-term deal know after a career season.. just maybe not with Calgary.

Does it benefit Calgary to take him to arbitration? Not really either, I think. His award would not significantly differ and it would be 1-year regardless. I think they too would like to keep the option open for a long-term deal.

 

[Dead Coyote]

I'm a little surprised to see Crouse here. I hope we aren't lowballing him, he deserves a good long contract for a decent price.

 

[LMFAO]

I wish I could hear Maxime Lajoie’s arbitration case.

 

[Noldo]

They were willing to offer JG $10.5 mil by most accounts. I think that’s an easy match of Cgy’s part. At the very least they can exceed to offer sheet value if they trade him next year (when they can on a matched sheet) and they have him signed. There is also no trade protection.

If a player signs an offer sheet, at this point it is with the understanding that their current team can match and they are at least content to stay. That kind of makes it a little easier to get past hard feeling. The real leverage point Tkachuk has if he wants to move on is not an offer sheet, but just signing the QO.

The tricky part would be that if a team would make offer sheet for one year, Tkachuk would walk straight into UFA and only compensation Calgary could get would be draft picks they would get if the do not match the offer sheet because Calgary would not be able to trade Tkachuk for one year. So if a team is willing to risk their unprotected 1st for next year, they could put Carlgary into somewhat difficult position.

It would be better for Tkachuk than his QO (assuming one year with salary north of 9).

The offering team would take two risks: could they sign Tkachuk after 1 January or would they end up paying first for one year of Tkachuk AND

Would they be so bad that their unprotected first ends up in Berars lottery.

St.Louis, make your move?

 

[Lempo]

I wish I could hear Maxime Lajoie’s arbitration case.

"Hi, I'm Maxime, a full-time NHLer in season 2018-19 with Ottawa, first time arbitration-eligible.

My NHL record 7+8=15 from that season 2018-19 is better than my good friend d-man Gustav Forsling had in NHL in any of his broken NHL seasons with Blackhawks in 2016-19. Similar to him, I am a player who already had broken onto the NHL level but whose NHL route has since been blocked by a trade to Carolina Hurricanes who has exceptionally stacked D-corps and an unhealtly urge to still trade for more. And similar to Forsling who has since and immediately after his arbitration been a fulltime NHL player with Florida Panthers, to promote the team parity in NHL, I too should be awarded a one-way contract which would necessitate Carolina to either play me in their NHL roster or trade me to a team that would play a player of my talent level in the NHL.

Furthermore, I am a .50+ PpgP defenseman in AHL. If I was awarded a two-way contract, my AHL salary should greatly exceed my current guaranteed $100k."


EDIT: lol. I'm correctly told on the Canes board that I messed up between D Gustav Forsling and G Anton Forsberg, both of whom filed for arbitration during their time with Canes and the latter on whom was awarded a surprise one-way deal as an arbitration award.

D-man Gustav Forsling on the other hand didn't go all the way to an award but signed a voluntarily negotiated two-way contract with $250k guaranteed salary.

I'd like to blame capfriendly who doesn't mention if the SPC was an arbitration award or merely signed after arbitration filing. And generally the Swedes.