Prospect Info: 2022 - 1st OA] Juraj Slafkovsky (LW) Part 3

[417]

It is directly related to Slafkovsky. It is the closest example of 18 years old not thriving in the NHL and being worse off for it.

You've chosen to make that parallel, but that doesn't mean they're related.

There are plenty of examples of 18 year olds who didn't dominate year 1 and turned out to have fine careers.

 

[417]

Absolutely he did. KK was in Liiga all of his pre-draft season and finished 29pts in 57gp, much better than Juraj getting constantly demoted to Jrs despite his hulking frame and finishing with 10pts in 31gp. At every international level KK did well too, he simply didn’t benefit from a D-list Olympics to further raise his profile.

I never particularly liked KK or the pick but let’s not retcon things okay?

The problem with KK was that he was a project who had much to improve but was undeniably rushed. Will that be the story with the similarly ultra-raw Slafkovsky?

Kaapo Kakko had 38pts in 45 Liiga games his draft year.

I don't get why people consistently and selectively choose to make parallels to players drafted in previous seasons.

Additionally, pre-draft performance isn't necessarily a harbinger for future performance...as evidenced by my Kaapo Kaako example.

In his 4th year, he's finally starting to perhaps show why he was picked 2nd overall in 2019 (despite the fact he's 4th in scoring from that draft year).

 

[Mrb1p]

You've chosen to make that parallel, but that doesn't mean they're related.

There are plenty of examples of 18 year olds who didn't dominate year 1 and turned out to have fine careers.

Are they statistically relevant? When you weigh the two hypothesis, what makes more sense? When you add in the control hypothesis of drafted player in junior, how does it look? Top two rounds in junior vs NHL? Gosh? First round? Okay what about top 5 now?

Plenty of 18 YO playing in the NHL is wrong
Most of these 18 YOs were exceptional players. (Sid, Lemieux, Jumbo, Lecavalier, Stamkos, Hughes, Gretzky and so on.)

Arent you the one that went to war with the "Stop evaluating Slaf as an exceptional player"? Or is it only when it fits your narrative?

Slaf ---> OHL
Slaf ---> AHL

Its the only two reasonable takes.

 

[ReHabs]

Kaapo Kakko had 38pts in 45 Liiga games his draft year.

I don't get why people consistently and selectively choose to make parallels to players drafted in previous seasons.

Additionally, pre-draft performance isn't necessarily a harbinger for future performance...as evidenced by my Kaapo Kaako example.

In his 4th year, he's finally starting to perhaps show why he was picked 2nd overall in 2019 (despite the fact he's 4th in scoring from that draft year).

The other person and I were discussing Kotkaniemi (Jesperi Kotkanimi, Habs 3OA pick from 2018) and Slafkovksy (Juraj Slafkovsky, Habs 1OA pick from 2022), I didn't see any mention of "Kaapo Kakko" in this comparison between two players: Kotkaniemi and Slafkovsky.

If you don't 'get' why a Habs fan would bring up the two most recent Habs top3 draft picks who were (1) drafted from the same league and (2) started playing in the NHL at the same age I think if you think about it a bit more you'll get why that happens and will always consistently happen.

As for selective, any way you cut, slice and compare to previous entry drafts, draft-day Slafkovsky will be in the lower/more-questionable tier of choices compared to other draftees by sheer virtue of the 2022 draft being considerably more unknown (or if you want to be a pessimist: weaker) than other draft cohorts. There will be some gems who come out of the 2022 draft but nobody can predict where these studs are found on the final draft list... it happens every year but especially so in the 2022 draft where all of the top players had major warts to their prospect profile. The Habs picked one but any other one would've had issues that need intervention and growth too.

 

[hardcorehabs]

They have absolutely nothing in common. The comparison with KK are ridiculous.

- both picked by Habs, both could be considered ‘reaches’ at draft
- ‘project’ type draft picks
- late risers, inflated hype by media up to draft day
- made NHL roster day 1 despite other options for development path
- tall, lanky, weak on skates
- charismatic personalities

To be honest if KK was a winger, they’d have a lot in common. He was more physical than Slaf despite Slaf being claimed as this over powering, dominating, genetic freak

 

[Hins77]

Kaapo Kakko had 38pts in 45 Liiga games his draft year.

I don't get why people consistently and selectively choose to make parallels to players drafted in previous seasons.

Additionally, pre-draft performance isn't necessarily a harbinger for future performance...as evidenced by my Kaapo Kaako example.

In his 4th year, he's finally starting to perhaps show why he was picked 2nd overall in 2019 (despite the fact he's 4th in scoring from that draft year).

Because stats are showing what the odds the player could become.
In Slaf case, I would like to know, wich player in Liiga became an all star in the NHL with 0,32 PPG on his draft year.

 

[Captain97]

- both picked by Habs, both could be considered ‘reaches’ at draft
- ‘project’ type draft picks
- late risers, inflated hype by media up to draft day
- made NHL roster day 1 despite other options for development path
- tall, lanky, weak on skates
- charismatic personalities

To be honest if KK was a winger, they’d have a lot in common. He was more physical than Slaf despite Slaf being claimed as this over powering, dominating, genetic freak

Slaf wasn't a reach if thats who you're talking about. He was projected to go 1st overall by the man who has predicted every 1st overall pick for something stupid like 17 years.

Every player in the top 5 was a project this year, so while it's a fair comparison to KK it is what it is.

Slaf wasn't a late risers like KK, he's been hyped in Slovakia for years and was expected to be a top 5 pick before his rise.

Your 4th point is illogical as it can apply to literally anyplayer in the NHL.

Slaf isn't Lanky at all, he is 240lbs

What does charismatic have to do with him making the team?

 

[ReHabs]

IAre they statistically relevant? When you weigh the two hypothesis, what makes more sense? When you add in the control hypothesis of drafted player in junior, how does it look? Top two rounds in junior vs NHL? Gosh? First round? Okay what about top 5 now?

Plenty of 18 YO playing in the NHL is wrong
Most of these 18 YOs were exceptional players. (Sid, Lemieux, Jumbo, Lecavalier, Stamkos, Hughes, Gretzky and so on.)

Arent you the one that went to war with the "Stop evaluating Slaf as an exceptional player"? Or is it only when it fits your narrative?

Slaf ---> OHL
Slaf ---> AHL

Its the only two reasonable takes.

I have three incomplete pieces on my substack about the entry draft but I never found a satisfactory analysis because there are very few 18 year olds in the NHL at any given time and pretty much no top5 picks with Slafkovsky's profile (men's league, international men's team, couldn't produce in the league).

My intuition tells me there's definitely a fun analysis to do but I can only spare so much spare time on excel a day.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Slaf definitely needs to be more physical seems like hes scared to use hes body but im not too worried yet hes still young and we're at game 5 still plenty of time

 

[MON4NHLTOR4MLB]

I was on Team Wright but have to say, Wright has done sweet f all so far too and Slaf has shown some promising stuff in little pockets here. Wait and see

 

[ReHabs]

In Slaf case, I would like to know, wich player in Liiga became an all star in the NHL with 0,32 PPG on his draft year.

Lemme save you the time

The closest good player is Sebastian Aho who had 13pts in 30 and was a second round pick.

I made this post earlier. Some good discussion come of it but a lot of bad faith snipes ensued. Everybody is supposedly done with hearing about Slaf's legendary 10pt season. The user @le_sean however found another interested correlation: only elite players do what Slaf did in international tournaments. Which correlation is going to be closer to the mark? I hope not mine.

 

[LaP]

Because stats are showing what the odds the player could become.
In Slaf case, I would like to know, wich player in Liiga became an all star in the NHL with 0,32 PPG on his draft year.

Aho 0.4333 ppg in regular seaaons and 0.3 ppg in playoffs
Roope Hintz 0.4 ppg
Koivu 0.21 ppg (3rd most points by a Fin ever injuries derailed his career but he was dominant in his first few years)
Tikkanen was not playing in the Ligga when he was drafted
Selanne was not playing in Ligga when he was drafted was playing in Division 1 and had only 2 points in 5 games so probably was playing an inferior junior league

You wont find many recent examples Finland is a small country and they don't produce many top players. But there's many examples of Russians who struggled on their draft year. Panarin did not impress anyone and was not even drafted. Kaprizov was not impressive in his draft year either. Even Ovechkin had very average stats in his draft year with only 23 points in 53 games.

Lemme save you the time

View attachment 596330

The closest good player is Sebastian Aho who had 13pts in 30 and was a second round pick.

I made this post earlier. Some good discussion come of it but a lot of bad faith snipes ensued. Everybody is supposedly done with hearing about Slaf's legendary 10pt season. The user @le_sean however found another interested correlation: only elite players do what Slaf did in international tournaments. Which correlation is going to be closer to the mark? I hope not mine.

I'd say Roope Hintz is a pretty damn good player. If Slaf becomes a Hintz i'll be more than happy.

 

[Justsayin]

Just checking in here to see whether it's been determined whether Slaf will be any good in 4 or 5 years.

Not yet? OK, I'll check again in a couple of weeks.

 

[417]

Are they statistically relevant? When you weigh the two hypothesis, what makes more sense? When you add in the control hypothesis of drafted player in junior, how does it look? Top two rounds in junior vs NHL? Gosh? First round? Okay what about top 5 now?

Plenty of 18 YO playing in the NHL is wrong
Most of these 18 YOs were exceptional players. (Sid, Lemieux, Jumbo, Lecavalier, Stamkos, Hughes, Gretzky and so on.)

That's not what I said...I said there were plenty of 18yr olds who didn't dominate right off the bat, but still ended up having strong to great careers.

Joe Thornton
Nathan MacKinnon
Jack Hughes
Vincent Lecavalier
Steven Stamkos
Trevor Linden
Jaromir Jagr
Matt Duchene
Kirk Muller
Pierre Turgeon
Valeri Nichushkin.

None of these players had exceptional season as 18 year olds...it didn't mean they didn't go on to have great and in a lot of cases, amazing careers.

Arent you the one that went to war with the "Stop evaluating Slaf as an exceptional player"? Or is it only when it fits your narrative?

No, i'm not the one.

Slaf ---> OHL
Slaf ---> AHL

Its the only two reasonable takes.

Like I said...I didn't have that debate with you.

And I don't personally think the OHL is an option.

NHL or AHL, wherever he can play meaningful minutes is optimal for me.

I'm not the type to associate development with production...I don't think those 2 things necessarily go together, all the time.

 

[417]

The other person and I were discussing Kotkaniemi (Jesperi Kotkanimi, Habs 3OA pick from 2018) and Slafkovksy (Juraj Slafkovsky, Habs 1OA pick from 2022), I didn't see any mention of "Kaapo Kakko" in this comparison between two players: Kotkaniemi and Slafkovsky.

Doesn't change what I wrote.

As I said, you can't just selectively decide what's relevant and disregard everything else.

If you don't 'get' why a Habs fan would bring up the two most recent Habs top3 draft picks who were (1) drafted from the same league and (2) started playing in the NHL at the same age I think if you think about it a bit more you'll get why that happens and will always consistently happen.

Oh I get it...it's the low hanging fruit.

I get it lol

As for selective, any way you cut, slice and compare to previous entry drafts, draft-day Slafkovsky will be in the lower/more-questionable tier of choices compared to other draftees by sheer virtue of the 2022 draft being considerably more unknown (or if you want to be a pessimist: weaker) than other draft cohorts. There will be some gems who come out of the 2022 draft but nobody can predict where these studs are found on the final draft list... it happens every year but especially so in the 2022 draft where all of the top players had major warts to their prospect profile. The Habs picked one but any other one would've had issues that need intervention and growth too.

Once again...using this standard.

Kaapo Kaako should be an NHL superstar....he had 38pts in 45 Liiga games.

I don't disagree with you that Slafkovsky is far from a sure thing, now that i've had a bit of a bigger sample to watch him. I have some concerns of my own (though I see a lot more positive than you and a few others do).

But focusing on pre-draft production to me doesn't matter anymore. It's not an indicator of future success.

Some players PEAK in their draft year and are never as good as they were when they were 17/18.

Some players peak LATER.

It's an inexact science...trying to make hard fast rules based on such rigid parameters is less than ideal IMO.

Because stats are showing what the odds the player could become.
In Slaf case, I would like to know, wich player in Liiga became an all star in the NHL with 0,32 PPG on his draft year.

But that's not true lol

38pts in 45 Liiga games for Kaako his draft year.

Using your reasoning above, he should be an all-star right now.

But he ain't.