So, balancing the 4 lines is not a good option and last year 4th line were horrible in their main role. Therefore, what is the solution for that 4th line? Keep the same players there and complain at the end of the season that they were bad again? Or expecting that Frederic replacing Nordstrom will change everything?
There are three levers you can pull when putting together lines.
1. Personnel
This is the obvious one. Nordstrom, Kuraly and Wagner were not good last year. Even the Nordstrom we saw in the playoffs that was high effort and making hits and blocking shots was a black hole. Wagner had his goal total cut in half back to normal career levels. Kuraly is the key to that line and we know he can be good, but he didn’t really get his “on” switch fully in position last year. The line didn’t score. It needs some more personnel that can provide some offense. I know I am not saying anything controversial so far.
2. Role
Bruins used their 4th line like a classic old school 3rd line; defensive against good competition. I don’t see that role changing. It hypothetically could, but then you are taking away offensive opportunities from Pasta or Marchand or Krejci and that seems like you are fighting against yourselves. You suppose they do it because they didn’t have enough talent to role 4 lines, I say they view it as a feature. Give your best offensive players better chances. Optimize the 4th line around guys that neuter the other teams top six. So, you want guys you can trust defensively here. Some truculence to wear down the other team is good, especially come the playoffs, but most importantly you want guys that you can trust defensively with some offensive pop...but not so much offensive pop that you are shooting yourself in the foot by not giving them an offensive role. I hope the history of Marchand and Bergeron and their offensive explosion since Julien left teaches us something about how role matters.
3. Time on ice
The 4th line guys played around 10 minutes at evens a game last year. Someone like Pasta played 15. I know you think that bringing those numbers closer together is a feature of spreading out the talent over four lines. I think they already do a good job of not taxing the older centers. Bergeron only plays 13 minutes at even strength. That’s fewer than Coyle. He has the tough PK minutes and then some easy PP minutes on top of that. Marchand and Pasta are given the freedom to take longer shifts so they can team their TOI higher at evens. All the top 9 guys play 13-15 minutes a night at evens. And the 4th line plays less but harder more defensive minutes to make everyone else’s minutes easier. This is a good setup! The problem is the personnel.
So you ask if Frederic is enough. Not unless we see “good Kuraly” all the time, which we have enough history to show that he can’t keep up the intensity all year long (and he just didn’t flip the switch in RTP this year). Wagner is what he is. Likes to hit, loves in the room. Lunch pail guy that really isn’t very good. If it was me, his job would be much much much less secure.
Assume your top 8 is Marchand, Bergeron, Pasta, DeBrusk, Krejci, Kase, Coyle and Smith and assume that Kuraly has a secure spot on the 4th line.
That means you have Bjork, Frederic, Studnicka, Ritchie, Wagner as favorites to fight for the last three spots. Can you make up a 4th that can still be limited in TOI but can provide good D and a little offensive pop from that list? I think so.
I would love to see Frederic/Kuraly/Bjork get a shot. Truculent, responsible, and enough speed and skill to be a threat to counter attack.
I don’t think, at the core, we disagree too much really. Im just less willing to rob peter to pay paul to make the 4th line better and see the fourth lines limited TOI shutdown role as a feature and not a bug.
