Speculation: 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft

[Coopers Gum]

I doubt McD goes anywhere. Makes us too good. I understand we’re gonna have to lose someone good. But that will likely come from a position of strength: forward.

We are less deep on defense. I’d expect Palat or Johnson or Killorn or even Gourde, or any combination of them to not be on the team next year. Sucks, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

 

[Point21]

Killorn and Palat have the most value of the main trade pieces. Gourde has some value but dont see him going anywhere. Johnson is gonna cost a bit to move and McD might end up being the same unless we get lucky and someone offers a mid round pick for him. Most likely we see one of McD and Johnson go to seattle and we move Palat or Killorn in a trade to maximize our return

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Losing McDonagh doesn't close our window any more than losing Stamkos did. Make us worse? Sure. But you can only get so far preventing goals, and given what we're paying Vasy going all in on defensemen isn't necessarily the best way to parcel out our limited resources.

That said, the point someone raised about not moving McDonagh while Hedman is hurt is well made. Him being actively injured changes the calculus on how resilient to personnel risk we are on D.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Losing McDonagh doesn't close our window any more than losing Stamkos did. Make us worse? Sure. But you can only get so far preventing goals, and given what we're paying Vasy going all in on defensemen isn't necessarily the best way to parcel out our limited resources.

That said, the point someone raised about not moving McDonagh while Hedman is hurt is well made. Him being actively injured changes the calculus on how resilient to personnel risk we are on D.

Edit: And we certainly aren't losing only McDonagh. Likely McDonagh, TJ and Killorn, which gives us space to throw about $1.5m at a replacement defenseman and space to retain Coleman. Keep McDonagh and we have to dump more salary in addition to TJ and Killorn -- probably Coleman, maybe more.

 

[Sky04]

Coleman isn't coming back and certainly at a worthwhile price. Moving Killorn just to sign Coleman makes no sense.

 

[Rschmitz]

Losing McDonagh absolutely shuts down our window, look at his role in this years playoffs. If we have to bite the bullet on the backhalf of his contract to keep the window open 2-3 more years it absolutely worth it. Watching everyone elses defense collapse while ours just had one of their best series just emphasizes how good it is.

It's not eating the back half of his contract that is the problem, it's possibly losing one of Sergachev or Cernak, you have to consider that the cap may be stuck and slowly rising for some time.

 

[Rschmitz]

Why would WE have to add if they want McDonagh? They should be paying us for a guy that good, McDonagh could return much more than what it would cost to move Johnson.

The possible trade I described they would be taking TJ too

TJ + McD + Sweetener

plus the opportunity cost of not losing a guy like Foote

 

[Rschmitz]

I doubt McD goes anywhere. Makes us too good. I understand we’re gonna have to lose someone good. But that will likely come from a position of strength: forward.

We are less deep on defense. I’d expect Palat or Johnson or Killorn or even Gourde, or any combination of them to not be on the team next year. Sucks, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

We have to shed a ton of cap over the next two years.

 

[Rschmitz]

The possible trade I described they would be taking TJ too

TJ + McD + Sweetener

plus the opportunity cost of not losing a guy like Foote

BTW I said this is just one option, I would prefer to keep McD too and trade more forward depth. I don't care about losing Foote, or whatever it cost as sweetener, that isn't the point. The point is we have an opportunity to create a ton of cap space where normally it would be beyond our control and we'd have to use buyouts and create dead cap, than JBB has to consider it. I also agree that losing McD hurts tremendously and hurt our immediate window, but you still have to make ends meet and keep your younger star talent. If JBB has to choose between him or Sergachev and Cernak, then the decision is easy.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Coleman isn't coming back and certainly at a worthwhile price. Moving Killorn just to sign Coleman makes no sense.

Don't give me your "makes no sense" crap. Coleman will be cheaper than Killorn and is younger to boot, and we have a chance to hang a real bargain contract on him given what the cap is going to do to free agents this offseason.

Your solution is to dump Palat, Coleman and Goodrow so we can hold on to Killorn and McDonagh.

Neither of the options is great, but both are viable.

_Maybe_ we hold onto Goodrow in your scenario if we run a really short roster again, but that's much tougher to do with no taxi squad and for 82 games.

 

[HoseEmDown]

You basically reinforced my point, we are over the cap and still have to sign 5ish players to fill out the roster. In general, my point was that we will have to trade 2 names off the roster who are in the 5mil range, which it appears you agree with. Nobody is touching Johnson's contract with a 10 foot pole, that is obvious. So it will either be a massive throw in (1st and prospect) to get a team to take him, or we will have to trade Gourde and Palat, or Killorn. It's gonna sting.

Being 3.5M over is a lot different than being 9M over and still needing to sign 5 players. Much easier to maneuver the cap at that number than yours. We knew already that at least one big name was going, Johnson, and after the raises of the 3 kids last year we knew another name was going to be added.

As for Johnson, just because he cleared waivers doesn't mean he wasn't wanted, I'm sure teams would want him but cap prevented that. I'm not saying he doesn't have negative value but I think we can find team that could use him. We will have to pay to move him but we aren't going to pay through the nose to do it either. Johnson can still be a decent scorer, not 70 points but 35-45, in the right situation. Guys who score like that get 3.5-4M, so he's overpaid but not massively. I don't think we will move Killorn, Palat I would while his value is high after the season he had and Gourde has a full NTC still so won't be moved. Trade Palat and Johnson together for no return or use what you get from Palat to move Johnson.

 

[Sky04]

Don't give me your "makes no sense" crap. Coleman will be cheaper than Killorn and is younger to boot, and we have a chance to hang a real bargain contract on him given what the cap is going to do to free agents this offseason.

Your solution is to dump Palat, Coleman and Goodrow so we can hold on to Killorn and McDonagh.

Neither of the options is great, but both are viable.

_Maybe_ we hold onto Goodrow in your scenario if we run a really short roster again, but that's much tougher to do with no taxi squad and for 82 games.

Where do you have Coleman at then? He's easily going to get ~4M and is worse than Killorn who we have to move in the next year. Goodrow is a much better value pick than Coleman and someone we should look to retain on a "bargain" contract.

Even if we go by your idea and move McDonagh to free up cap, you might as well keep the better players in Killorn and Palat instead signing Coleman to a brand new contract that's going to come with term, on the list priorities, Coleman is low.

How would it be short, if we move Palat and Johnson we have roughly 7m in capspace with 9F, 5D and 1G, many of those will be filled by our AHL guys on near league minimum. You can fit a 22 man roster.

 

[NatoGhost]

The possible trade I described they would be taking TJ too

TJ + McD + Sweetener

plus the opportunity cost of not losing a guy like Foote

Plus a sweetener? McDonough is sweet enough.

 

[Rschmitz]

Plus a sweetener? McDonough is sweet enough.

To also take on TJ plus the cost of not using their pick on someone else? Absolutely not

 

[DistantThunderRep]

To also take on TJ plus the cost of not using their pick on someone else? Absolutely not

People have a sensationalized memory of all the actual returns and moves Vegas did during the expansion.

Don't get me wrong some GM's were really dumb in their moves (NYI, FLA, CLB), but picking someone as effective as McDonagh or forcing someone to pick Johnson by giving McDonagh, may require a minimal sweetener. Like a 4th or 5th rounder. McDonagh is still really good and for a new team perfect to slot in.

 

[These Are The Days]

At this point it's fair to say I've been wrong about the guy for years. But it's also fair to say Johnson is the story of guy who vastly overachieved early in his career to the point of borderline superstardom and his regular season average of 0.56 PPG since the Cup run feels like regression. I'm aware how terrible he's been for years. But it would not be a surprise to me either if this is was not what he was "always supposed to be" either

 

[The Gongshow]

I'm against getting rid of McDonagh. He's a big part of this teams success. Specially with an injured Heddy. He's too important right now and for the next couple years. His contract might be bad for the last 2 years but it'll be worth it for what he brings us now. Easily

Specially with Hedman's status being unknown for next season? He might not miss any games but might need time before he's back to peak Hedman condition.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

The possible trade I described they would be taking TJ too

TJ + McD + Sweetener

plus the opportunity cost of not losing a guy like Foote

Sweetener?

Are you telling me a team like Colorado would not pay for somebody like McDonagh after what happened to them?

Seattle can take Foote for all I care, he's not a world beater, we can pick a free agent for the same salary he will have. No sweat

 

[Rschmitz]

Sweetener?

Are you telling me a team like Colorado would not pay for somebody like McDonagh after what happened to them?

Seattle can take Foote for all I care, he's not a world beater, we can pick a free agent for the same salary he will have. No sweat

That’s not reality. McDonagh has a full NTC until the last year of his contract, and most teams are in the same predicament as us up against the cap. Like I said I don’t care about losing Foote

 

[JTBF81]

Keeping McD really squeezes the team down the road, although depending on the severity of Hedman's injury and possible time missed, it may be the right decision. It is difficult, but not impossible, to make a 22 player roster work next year keeping him and Goodrow. If they move out Johnson, Palat, and accept there's no chance at keeping Coleman nor Savard, they might be able to make a roster like the following work:

Colton/ABB-Point-Kuch
Killorn-Cirelli-Stamkos
Joseph/Colton-Gourde-Goodrow
Joseph-Stephens-Maroon
One of Raddysh/Katchouk/Smith could also battle for a 3rd/4th line spot if they earn it.
Hedman-Rutta
McD-Cernak
Serg-Foote
Depth options of Schenn, Thomas, maybe Claesson.

Vasi
very low cost back up

Moving McD, Palat and Johnson:
Colton-Point-Kucherov
Killorn-Cirelli-Stamkos
Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow
Joseph-Stephens-Maroon

Hedman-Savard
Sergachev-Cernak
UfA 3LD between 1-1.5-Rutta
Schenn, Thomas, Foote(if still there) as other options

Vasi
Backup(between 1-1.5)
If JBB could convince Coleman and Savard to each take around 3.5-3.75, and Goodrow in the ~2range, this could work. Not saying it is likely, but it is a possiblity.

 

[PJ817]

If JBB could convince Coleman and Savard to each take around 3.5-3.75, and Goodrow in the ~2range, this could work. Not saying it is likely, but it is a possiblity.

I've always liked Pickles since he played for NJD (went to many games at Pru because Boyle played there). I like his get-up in your face and go on PK - he's not afraid to hustle down a loose puck and toss it at the net. He's also not afraid of fighting, getting up into anyone's face - Wilson, Marchand, et al.

BUT, I believe he's building a big house in TX to raise his family so if I had to guess, he goes to Dallas somehow.

 

[JTBF81]

I've always liked Pickles since he played for NJD (went to many games at Pru because Boyle played there). I like his get-up in your face and go on PK - he's not afraid to hustle down a loose puck and toss it at the net. He's also not afraid of fighting, getting up into anyone's face - Wilson, Marchand, et al.

BUT, I believe he's building a big house in TX to raise his family so if I had to guess, he goes to Dallas somehow.

Yes, I know he's from Texas and if he wants to play for Dallas, and they want him, then so be it. It's probably likely Tampa can't afford him anyway, for sure if McD is kept and still borderline if he is taken by Seattle. I think the Lightning will make an offer to him that will get outbid, and he's gone. The synergy and effectiveness of that 3rd line though shouldn't be tossed aside lightly, so I'm sure Brisebois is considering several options for how the team will look for next year and beyond.

 

[Felonious Python]

Gerard Gallant is going to NYR, so Seattle lose his expansion experience.

 

[The Gongshow]

With the way Johnson has been playing so far in these playoffs maybe Johnson to Seattle eint off the board just yet

Palat has trade value and I could see Killorn sticking around, tbh.

 

[PettersonHughes]

Canucks fan here, for this offseason what kind of sell-off are you guys expecting for your team given how your team is still $5 million over the cap and only has 19 guys signed? e.g. a straight up giveaway of player plus sweetener (e.g. for Johnson), or something like what happened to Nate Schmidt to bring him from Vegas to Vancouver (sell for middling pick)? Besides the outright locks to stay (Vasilievskiy, Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Cernak, Cirelli/ Sergachev? I'm sure I'm missing some) what would be a realistic selling price for each of guys like Killorn, Gourde, Palat and McDonagh (in this case both what fans would want, and what you see management realistically offloading these guys for)? Curious to hear your thoughts and predictions.