Speculation: 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft
- Thread starter These Are The Days
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We'd still need to pay them to take him. There are quite a few really good UFA's this summer that nobody can afford thanks to the flat cap, so they'll just take one of the young pieces we can't protect like Joseph or Foote and sign UFA's like Hall and Hamilton.
The Gongshow
Fire JBB
I'd happily give Joesph and Johnson. Still not quite ready to move on from Foote just yet
We may not have a choice, if they decide they won't make a deal he's probably our best young player that will likely be available.
theVladiator
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- May 26, 2018
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Not a Tampa fan, but here is what would be my plan for expansion draft.
Protect Kucherov,Point,Stamkos, Gourde, Cirelli, Killorn, Colton (7F) Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak (3D) Vasilevsky (1G)
Notable exposures: McDonagh, Palat, Johnson
Why expose McDonagh? LD is actually pretty deep position with Hedman and Sergachev. If McDonagh is picked, it frees up tons of cap space that's going to be very valuable. There will be a lot of UFAs due to expansion draft, and some may take a discount to join a contender, so cap space is even more valuable for Tampa. McDonagh is also getting older, and it's not obvious how much longer he is going to be worth his contract, especially if not surrounded by elite talent. Not knocking MacDonagh here, I think he's been playing pretty well, just pointing out why it's not an ideal pick for Seattle.
Why expose Palat? With only 1 year left on the contract, he is unlikely to be picked. Being unable to resign Palat and trading an unhappy and thus under-performing player for peanuts at TDL (back to Tampa? heehee) is a strong possibility and not worth the risk. I'd say he is the least likely player to be picked in this scenario, due to contract expiration.
Why expose Johnson? Really?
Basically, under this scenario, none of the exposed players are such great picks for Seattle, which means that they might end up picking Johnson without having to be paid to do so. Consequently, the asking price to pick Johnson would not be as high as it would be otherwise.
Protect Kucherov,Point,Stamkos, Gourde, Cirelli, Killorn, Colton (7F) Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak (3D) Vasilevsky (1G)
Notable exposures: McDonagh, Palat, Johnson
Why expose McDonagh? LD is actually pretty deep position with Hedman and Sergachev. If McDonagh is picked, it frees up tons of cap space that's going to be very valuable. There will be a lot of UFAs due to expansion draft, and some may take a discount to join a contender, so cap space is even more valuable for Tampa. McDonagh is also getting older, and it's not obvious how much longer he is going to be worth his contract, especially if not surrounded by elite talent. Not knocking MacDonagh here, I think he's been playing pretty well, just pointing out why it's not an ideal pick for Seattle.
Why expose Palat? With only 1 year left on the contract, he is unlikely to be picked. Being unable to resign Palat and trading an unhappy and thus under-performing player for peanuts at TDL (back to Tampa? heehee) is a strong possibility and not worth the risk. I'd say he is the least likely player to be picked in this scenario, due to contract expiration.
Why expose Johnson? Really?
Basically, under this scenario, none of the exposed players are such great picks for Seattle, which means that they might end up picking Johnson without having to be paid to do so. Consequently, the asking price to pick Johnson would not be as high as it would be otherwise.
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McDonagh's cap hit is good value for someone who is a top pairing defenseman and takes on the hardest minutes on the team. We aren't going to let him go for free for cap reasons. I'd rather give Seattle their pick of Palat/Johnson/Killorn/whoever and go 4F + 4D.
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I have to say though, it's becoming harder and harder to decide who to choose out of Killorn/Gourde/Palat/Cirelli to go along with Johnson. Last year the answer was clearly Killorn, now it hurts no matter who we lose. Leaning towards Palat a little more now, but there's some recency bias.
I think we can remove Gourde from the discussion since he has a full NTC and the other three do not. I think Palat stays because he is in the last year of his contract, so it'll be easy to let him go in order to pay Point.
theVladiator
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It's not letting go for cap reasons for free. It's picking your poison in the expansion draft. As valuable as McDonagh is to Tampa, I am making the case that he can be replaced internally with relative ease. Most importantly, he is also a riskier option for Seattle to pick due to age and NTC, so may not even get picked if exposed.
Coopers Gum
Extend Andrej Sustr
I’m still of the mind we expose a forward before we expose McD. We are deeper at forward than defense. McD has arguably been our best defender this year, and especially this playoffs. He rarely has a bad game. I think one of Killer or Palat gets exposed, along with Johnson.
theVladiator
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If Tampa goes 4F/4D, then Colton, Killorn, Palat, Johnson and one of Gourde/Cirelli will have to be exposed. In that scenario, I think it's most likely that either Colton gets picked, or Gourde/Cirelli. If Colton gets picked, Tampa will still have to get rid of two contracts (Johnson + ???).
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But from an asset management perspective, McDonagh is more valuable than any single forward we'd expose. I also strongly disagree with your premise that McDonagh is more replaceable. Sergachev may eventually step into that role, but top pairing defensemen don't grow on trees. We have plenty of forward prospects that can step in to 3rd and 4th line roles if we lose one of our forwards.
JTBF81
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I would trade Palat now, because he likely has the highest value he will have, and as you said, they likely won't be able to re-sign him due to the Point raise anyway. The extra year on Killorn is valuable, and if McDonagh is kept, the extra ~900k Tampa would have to work with could be the difference in keeping Goodrow in many mock rosters I've tried and seen. I still think there is a solid argument to making a deal to move McDonagh, as it makes the cap situation much, much more tenable for the next 2-3 years, but if he's kept, then having the chance to keep Killorn+Goodrow while getting a good return on Palat(helping to offset the loss incurred to move Johnson) seems like a solid course imo.
Coopers Gum
Extend Andrej Sustr
Just thought of this off the top of my head, so maybe it’s crazy but let me know what you guys think.
Trade Johnson and Palat (who are great pals) to Seattle for an agreement not to take any of our other exposed players and maybe a draft pick or two? Idk? Depends who we expose.
Trade Johnson and Palat (who are great pals) to Seattle for an agreement not to take any of our other exposed players and maybe a draft pick or two? Idk? Depends who we expose.
Watching McDonogh these playoffs it’s apparent to me the Lightning have to protect him. So my position has changed, 4F and 4D is the way to go.
The window will still be open the next few years. We all know Seattle isn’t taking TJ without assets coming their way. I can live with losing Foote, by the time he may be good, the window may be shutting anyway. Plus he will start making some decent coin now. A vet bottom pair Dman for less 2 million may serve the Lightning better in the short term anyway.
Really hope Seattle doesn’t take Colton. I envision him as a key bottom 6 player that can slide up on occasion at an ELC.
The window will still be open the next few years. We all know Seattle isn’t taking TJ without assets coming their way. I can live with losing Foote, by the time he may be good, the window may be shutting anyway. Plus he will start making some decent coin now. A vet bottom pair Dman for less 2 million may serve the Lightning better in the short term anyway.
Really hope Seattle doesn’t take Colton. I envision him as a key bottom 6 player that can slide up on occasion at an ELC.
I agree, sticking with Hedman-McD-Sergachev-Cernak is necessary to keep our window open. Look at the way in which we are beating NYI: keeping the puck out of the net. McD has really escalated his play for us since that 2018 post-acquisition run. I personally think he is going to age well. He has always been such an elite skater and does not seem to be losing it. I am at the point where I think Killorn is more valuable than Palat (I cannot believe I am saying that). Get Seattle to take Johnson and attach Foote as the sweetener. Trade Palat, resign Goodrow. Our depth will slightly take a hit, losing Johnson, Palat and Coleman. But at this point, it is inevitable. Thankfully Colton has stepped up and we can trust to plug him in.
Foote as a sweetener doesn’t work unfortunately. Seattle can just draft Cal for free, without taking TJ.
Get Seattle to take TJ for Foote and 1st. That should do the trick. We have to clear TJ's contract. I cannot see any other option - aside from LTIR magic - to get under the cap next season. And, yes, trading Stamkos is not a realistic option.
What kind of possibilities does this trade idea open?
McDonagh, Johnson and Vasilevskyi to the Kraken for Detroit's all first and secondround draft choices (four of them, hypothetically aquired in exchange for Seattle's firstround pick). The highest pick might be Wallstedt giving Lightning the top junior pair of Alnefelt and said Wallstedt. Beside of a cap saving of 20 million.
McDonagh, Johnson and Vasilevskyi to the Kraken for Detroit's all first and secondround draft choices (four of them, hypothetically aquired in exchange for Seattle's firstround pick). The highest pick might be Wallstedt giving Lightning the top junior pair of Alnefelt and said Wallstedt. Beside of a cap saving of 20 million.
You are excused.
On another note I think that when having a winning team you are in a great position to work in some more players. For example top goalie prospects bound to be first netminders for their country. At a low cost. Palat and Killorn are more valubale than one might think. And getting rid of Johnson and, say Killorn requires yet one more player to go as well. "98 million dollar team" as a Hurricane player expressed it.
Constraints... LTIR is not optional.
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The Gongshow
Fire JBB
I can't tell if bad troll or really awful take. Trade away best goalie in the world, at the age of 26...for picks...
I can't tell if bad troll or really awful take. Trade away best goalie in the world, at the age of 26...for picks...
Well, it's 9.5 million. And the discussion was about ideas behind such a trade. He has a NMC, you know.
And stop the "troll" speach. I'm an Avs fan which is no secret. With our own problems. Physical d-men missing and Landeskog to sign. Saad gone and no goalie. Hehe.
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theVladiator
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I have almost no doubt that Colton will get taken if exposed, he would be the best value, best bang for the salary cap buck. I am sure Seattle knows that they will have pick of the litter when teams come knocking on their doors trying to alleviate cap pain, so I think they take highly paid guys only if they do not have an underpaid solid NHLer to grab. That's what I would do anyway.
That would leave Tampa with having to get rid of 2 more forwards (Palat/Killorn/Johnson/Gourde/Cirelli) this year, plus one more player next year when Point is being extended. So, in 4F/4D protection scheme, Tampa likely loses Goodrow+Colton+Coleman+Johnson+(1 of Gourde/Palat/Killorn) this year, and then (another one of Gourde/Palat/Killorn) the year after. As good as Tampa forward depth is, it's gonna hurt pretty bad. You are likely looking at 22/23 year with just 5 core guys Kucherov/Point/Stamkos/Gourde/Cirelli. Not sure if having a 35yo McDonagh at 7M/year is a good trade-off for that kind of decimation.
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