2021 Seattle Expansion Draft (Seattle selects D. Gavin Bayruether)

[Xoggz22]

and how much they have can be tricky, multiple contracts expiring after next season...some will require a raise to be re-signed

The thought would be the drop Gus and go sign a center in free agency, which will cost more and impact future cap while removing a top 6 LW that's ONLY 32. Gus is a 50-60 pt, play the right way, cost controlled, short term contract. He'll be protected unless he's out all year and we get a waiver to not require protection.

 

[pled]

removing a top 6 LW that's ONLY 32. Gus is a 50-60 pt, play the right way, cost controlled, short term contract.

the point is that there high risk he isnt that anymore. that's why some people want to expose him. if he manage to comeback or somehow show the team he is still worth it obviously he will be protected.

 

[DarkandStormy]

The thought would be the drop Gus and go sign a center in free agency, which will cost more and impact future cap while removing a top 6 LW that's ONLY 32. Gus is a 50-60 pt, play the right way, cost controlled, short term contract. He'll be protected unless he's out all year and we get a waiver to not require protection.

He's only topped 50 points in two seasons...when he was under 30 years old.

 

[koteka]

He's only topped 50 points in two seasons...when he was under 30 years old.

Nyquist last 5 years:

15-16 82 games 43 points
16-17 76 games 48 points
17-18 82 games 40 points
18-19 81 games 60 points
19-20 70 games 42 points

2018-2019 was his best season, both in the regular season (60 points) and the playoffs (11 points in 20 games).

So if he comes back successfully from his surgery and he is another year older, let’s assume he is a half a point per game player. He has done that twice in the last 5 years. That is Foligno / Jenner territory this year. Without the grit that Foligno and Jenner bring. For probably $2 million per year more than Foligno or Jenner will make next year.

 

[EDM]

I have never been a big fan of what Nyquist brought to this team. To me he has always seemed to be a more expensive version of a slightly upgraded Foligno that would not have Foligno's grit. He is at best a borderline 2LW.

 

[Xoggz22]

This x 1 million .. let them pick up his contract . Dude will be 32 , coming off surgery , spend that money on a #1c

Just circling back to this conversation. There is approximately ~32MM AAV coming off the books after the year by my count if Gus is pulled by the Kraken (Gus, Dubi, Foligno, Savard, Nash, Grigorenko, Laine (RFA), Texier (RFA) Stenlund (RFA) and Del Zotta). You also have Hartnell coming off buyout as well. Rough estimate. Expect a big chunk to go to Laine (he could be moved too, of course), say... $10MM AAV to stay long term. UFAs inherently cost more as UFA than players do in trade due to demand. The supply of #1C coming on the market... VERY limited (unless you want Krejci on a 1 year deal type scenario). RNH is the only center worth a damn to extend long term and he's going to be $8MM? OK, Not crazy. but there are still multiple spots to fill and the money starts to get tight quick if you use most of it on 2 players to replace 6-7 players (and expect to get better - so plugging $1MM guys isn't typically the way to go). However, look at the next year. You have big increases coming for Jones, Werenski, one of the goalies, Roslovic, Domi, Jenner... all of whom are eligible for extensions in July. Lot's of turnover in the next two years. We're positioned well for the expansion draft without exposing Gus. It's unnecessary and doesn't seem like a positive direction.

So, in my opinion, keeping Gus (a top 6 LW that plays a complete game, which we also could use) offers a lot more value than protecting another middling player like Stenlund or Robinson (that pains me) from expansion. He still offers flexibility the following year if we need to move money (expiring contract by that point). Doesn't solve the 1C problem but unfortunately going the UFA route is a worse option - again, my opinion.

 

[Xoggz22]

Nyquist last 5 years:

15-16 82 games 43 points
16-17 76 games 48 points
17-18 82 games 40 points
18-19 81 games 60 points
19-20 70 games 42 points

2018-2019 was his best season, both in the regular season (60 points) and the playoffs (11 points in 20 games).

So if he comes back successfully from his surgery and he is another year older, let’s assume he is a half a point per game player. He has done that twice in the last 5 years. That is Foligno / Jenner territory this year. Without the grit that Foligno and Jenner bring. For probably $2 million per year more than Foligno or Jenner will make next year.

Not sure of your math. Looks like he's above a 0.5pt/gm player in 4 of the last 5 years with the other being 1 pt off (17/18). He's more creative and great penalty killer and better suited for the PP than both. He's a 200ft player but doesn't offer the thump that Foligno and Jenner do. He's more suited for top 6 than them as well. He's paid where a 45-50 pt player should be (I misspoke earlier calling him a 50-60 pt player as clearly that isn't year over year but I don't think calling him a 50 pt player is a stretch in his case).

This surgery has been needed for years. Who's to say he doesn't come back and be the 0.6 or 0.7pt player he's capable of. he's more consistent looking at his history.

I'm not sure why I'm arguing for Gus. I think he's a great fit and addition but I by no means and married to keeping him on the team. I just think he's another player that moves you forward, not holds you back. And he's on a 2 year deal... easy to manage if needed.

 

[Xoggz22]

He's only topped 50 points in two seasons...when he was under 30 years old.

Fair point. I was estimating. He's certainly capable but more realistically I would think 45-50pt more accurate. (with upside )

 

[Xoggz22]

I have never been a big fan of what Nyquist brought to this team. To me he has always seemed to be a more expensive version of a slightly upgraded Foligno that would not have Foligno's grit. He is at best a borderline 2LW.

He's firmly a top 6 forward if we simply look at last year's statistics. He finished around 105 for total points and 135 for pts per game. General principal of math would suggest approximately 180 of the top forwards would qualify as top 6. I do realize there is a lot more to it than that but I wouldn't call him "borderline" 2LW. He's a 2LW.

 

[koteka]

Not sure of your math. Looks like he's above a 0.5pt/gm player in 4 of the last 5 years with the other being 1 pt off (17/18).

I’ll show my math:

“let’s assume he is a half a point per game player. He has done that twice in the last 5 years.”

15-16 82 games 43 points 43/82 = 0.52 points per game
17-18 82 games 40 points 40/82 = 0.49 points per game

Now if you want to argue that 0.52 points per game is not “half a point per game”, I am not going to waste my time on that.

 

[Xoggz22]

I’ll show my math:

“let’s assume he is a half a point per game player. He has done that twice in the last 5 years.”

15-16 82 games 43 points 43/82 = 0.52 points per game
17-18 82 games 40 points 40/82 = 0.49 points per game

Now if you want to argue that 0.52 points per game is not “half a point per game”, I am not going to waste my time on that.

Do the other years not count? He's 0.5 pt/gm in 4 of the last 5 years with the other at 0.49. Maybe I don't understand your original post?

 

[koteka]

I assume that an older, returning from surgery Nyquist is not peak Nyquist. I am assuming he is more likely coming back like the guy he was in 2 of his last 5 years - about a half point per game player. I am not assuming he is going to be worse than he was before. I am assuming he is going to be is something he has done twice in the last 5 years.

By the way, here is something interesting about peak Nyquist. His 2 best years were 14-15 and 18-19. He had 54 and 60 points those seasons. Do you know what they had in common? His contract ended in both those seasons and he was playing for his next contract. Next year is not a contract year, so I don’t think he will be a 50+ point player. I think he’ll provide Jenner or Foligno level scoring for which we’ll be paying more than we will be paying Jenner next year. I don’t know what Foligno will make next year, but I expect it will be a lot less than $5.5 million dollars.

I even checked when his contracts were signed, and they were signed in the off-season. So it is not like he signed in the last year of his contract and then had a good season. He was playing for a better contract.

Gustav Nyquist - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I am not arguing that Nyquist sucks. I like the player. But I see no reason to protect him. I think if he is exposed the Kraken are going to pass on him and take Kukan. I fully expect them to take Kukan and then trade him to a team that could use a mostly dependable 4/5 defensemen for a pick or a prospect.

 

[EDM]

Xogg, to borrow a chestnut from Disraeli, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics”. When you have to go to that extent to prop up Nyquist, you are getting close to fully embracing Disraeli. His point production over his career is in the 40 points per year range. That is a slight upgrade from Foligno. If he is still on the team after the draft, I make him part of the Eichel package. I understand that you see him differently than I do.

 

[Xoggz22]

Xogg, to borrow a chestnut from Disraeli, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics”. When you have to go to that extent to prop up Nyquist, you are getting close to fully embracing Disraeli. His point production over his career is in the 40 points per year range. That is a slight upgrade from Foligno. If he is still on the team after the draft, I make him part of the Eichel package. I understand that you see him differently than I do.

And all I was pointing out is that his point production is 50 pts per year (with no year below 40, none above 60), whereas Nick is 42 pts per year (Nick also has a 73 pt season and many in the 30's). Different players under similar AAV, both offering different value. I just have to agree to disagree. I protect Gus.

 

[VT]

Nyquist is very good, but nobody know how is injury can influence on his play in future. He`s already 32 years old. And we have many talant, skill players. On the other hand Robinson is an excelent strong, speed grinder. I think there will be a pretty important doctor's report.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Xogg, to borrow a chestnut from Disraeli, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics”. When you have to go to that extent to prop up Nyquist, you are getting close to fully embracing Disraeli.

And there are wrong attributions, false attributions and misquotes. Disraeli didn't say it according to everything I can find.
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Why do we say Lies, damn lies, and statistics?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

The Disraeli Gears are turning. Such a strange brew.

 

[EspenK]

The Disraeli Gears are turning. Such a strange brew.

Take it back. We're going wrong with these kind of comments.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Take it back. We're going wrong with these kind of comments.

In any case, we’re in a world of pain.

 

[EspenK]

In any case, we’re in a world of pain.

Looks like neither one of us willl be able to dance the night away.

 

[Monk]

 

[BluejacketNut]

I don’t think many reams are wanting to touch Gus’ or Cams contracts.

the X factor in discussing anyone’s production is Torts or no Torts

 

[EspenK]

I don’t think many reams are wanting to touch Gus’ or Cams contracts.

the X factor in discussing anyone’s production is Torts or no Torts

Kind of like Michael Jordan without Dean Smith...

 

[majormajor]

I assume that an older, returning from surgery Nyquist is not peak Nyquist. I am assuming he is more likely coming back like the guy he was in 2 of his last 5 years - about a half point per game player. I am not assuming he is going to be worse than he was before. I am assuming he is going to be is something he has done twice in the last 5 years.

By the way, here is something interesting about peak Nyquist. His 2 best years were 14-15 and 18-19. He had 54 and 60 points those seasons. Do you know what they had in common? His contract ended in both those seasons and he was playing for his next contract. Next year is not a contract year, so I don’t think he will be a 50+ point player. I think he’ll provide Jenner or Foligno level scoring for which we’ll be paying more than we will be paying Jenner next year. I don’t know what Foligno will make next year, but I expect it will be a lot less than $5.5 million dollars.

I even checked when his contracts were signed, and they were signed in the off-season. So it is not like he signed in the last year of his contract and then had a good season. He was playing for a better contract.

Gustav Nyquist - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I am not arguing that Nyquist sucks. I like the player. But I see no reason to protect him. I think if he is exposed the Kraken are going to pass on him and take Kukan. I fully expect them to take Kukan and then trade him to a team that could use a mostly dependable 4/5 defensemen for a pick or a prospect.

I think there's little reason to protect Nyquist, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he's a bit better than his last season with us. His shot was nothing like it used to be, so it was very easy to believe him that his shoulder was the issue there. His game was good for us except for the low goal totals. If you can add 25 goals to his 30 assists then that is a player I'm excited to bring back.

 

[Forepar]

Laine, Atkinson, Roslovic, Bjork, Jenner, Domi should be protected. Foligno does not matter. He will be a UFA and will return to CBJ so that he can get his management spot when his playing days are over. I agree with those who say "let Seattle take Nyquist ......please". So it probably comes down to Robinson or Stenlund. Now, just stop and think about that. Our talent level is so low that we can actually think about protecting guys like Robinson and Stenlund who are at best fringe NHL players. Between the two I would protect Stenlund because I could see room for growth from him. Robinson is what he is.

^^^^^
This.
This boils down the current problem to its core. LOFT.