Cleveland and Pitt will fade IMO. Cleveland dealing with way too many injuries, and play in a tough division, and Pitt is just...I don't even know what to think of them.
I'd assume KC turns it around at some point, but they are playing with fire.
Not sure about the Raiders, but theyve been winning that games they need to win.
Good news is they play the Chargers and Cleveland.
That week 1 Dolphins loss is going to kill NE.
Pats seem destined to finish one game out of the WC just because they fumbled away the Miami game in week 1 and they'll have to draft 19th overall or something.
I don't think they make the playoffs, but there are two paths and they're largely in the Patriots' own hands:
1. Somehow sweep Buffalo then keep pace the rest of the way to steal the division
2. There are 3 wild cards now, you don't have to worry about the AFC South or the others below you in the East getting them. So look at the North and West. Really you could just keep Cleveland as your target and we play them in three weeks while they're ravaged by injury. KC might just give up at this point, especially if Mahomes misses time with the concussion and Henne is their starter. Chargers and Broncos are talented yet bipolar (I suppose you could say the same about us), they could just fall apart at any point (beating the Chargers next week would help that along). And as much as Jamarr Chase and Burrow look like a modern day Montana and Rice out there this year, the Bengals will be considered a paper tiger (pun intended) until they can actually finish out a season well. Maybe they're the ones who collapse.
Mapping this out is almost deluding myself into thinking it's reasonable. If I were a betting man I'd still say we miss out by a hair and blame the Harris fumble vs. Miami. But really my thoughts on the path being there are based in the fact that everyone in the AFC has some real issues so far. Of course, we're among those teams. But someone has to survive and grab that third WC. If we bank on the principle of Belichick teams being better in December than in September I can see us convincing ourselves on the path.