Speculation: 2021 Offseason Trade/Free Agency Thread

[GiveYouABagOfPucks]

Wonder if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen would be coming back due to salary etc.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Thats a fair take, although one that I disagree with. If the doctors feel the surgery would almost certainly lead to full recovery then eichel>>> comtois or 3rd overall IMO.

Without wading too far into this, as this particular surgery has never been performed on a hockey player, there is no way for the Ducks doctors to know with any certainty whatsoever if the surgery would lead to a full recovery.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

I'm not saying Freddy comes in and is better, I'm saying if we are going to get comparable results what's the difference. Gibson might have been playing behind a bad team, but he was also below average himself and the advanced stats back that up.

The stats are meaningless when you play behind such bad team for this long, almost nobody would be successful by regular stats or advanced stats. Give Gibson a decent team so he can have a positive mental mindset

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Without wading too far into this, as this particular surgery has never been performed on a hockey player, there is no way for the Ducks doctors to know with any certainty whatsoever if the surgery would lead to a full recovery.

We also dont know if this is a ploy to get moved. It's a gamble to trade for him no denying that but when you are where we are I think you gotta try, unless the doctors say no

 

[Anaheim4ever]

If unable to get Hampus to sign, Lindholm for Reinhart ?
Allows the Ducks to go 7-3-1 in expansion draft and Seattle gets jack shit from the Ducks.

 

[ShadowDuck]

Wonder if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen would be coming back due to salary etc.

Not sure Luukkonen would fit here, he’s not ready for the NHL, and he’d be well behind Dostal & OEE for the Gulls.

We’ll likely be bringing back an NHL roster player or a C level prospect just for contract purposes. I’m curious who it could be.

 

[Opak]

Just thinking about the logistics of a hypothetical Eichel trade. Not saying I want this to happen, nor that I'm advocating for an Eichel trade, but I'm just thinking out loud here.

- Expansion draft is scheduled for July 21st, first round of 2021 entry draft is scheduled for July 23rd. That's a tight 48-hour window between the two events, so it's highly likely that a trade before the entry draft also takes place before the ED (excluding a pick for pick type deal, obviously).
- Buffalo is reported to be interested in top-10 picks, so it's reasonable to assume that the Ducks would give up 3OA++ in a hypothetical Eichel deal. Therefore a deal would have to go down before the entry draft, but also very likely before the expansion draft.
- A lot of people here believe that the Ducks should go with a 8-1 scheme in the ED with our current roster, to protect our top-4 defensemen. However, Adding Eichel before the ED would make things a lot more complicated, as we could end up with 5 forwards that we want to protect.
- Going 7-3-1 would help with protecting all our forwards, but that would then leave one of our top-4 defensemen exposed to Seattle. Unless, of course, a defenseman goes back to Buffalo in a package with the 3OA. There is a bit of smoke between Buffalo and NJ about sending Risto to the Devils, which would make Buffalo interested in adding another Dman.
- I find it difficult to believe that we would take on Eichel and his $10 million cap hit without including a single roster piece, simply because of cap reasons. I would bet that, if there ends up being a deal, we would send 1-2 roster players to Buffalo. All of Rico/Silf/Fowler/Manson have NTCs which likely block the trade, so it would have to be someone else.

TL;DR - is it outrageous to assume that, in a hypothetical Eichel trade, we would send them 3OA + one of our top-4 defensemen + something extra? Along the lines of 3OA + one of Fleury/Lindholm + another player or two (Comtois/Steel/Dostal?) + 2022 2nd rounder?

 

[nbducksfan19]

Without wading too far into this, as this particular surgery has never been performed on a hockey player, there is no way for the Ducks doctors to know with any certainty whatsoever if the surgery would lead to a full recovery.

I don’t think that’s necessarily true. If the surgery has been successfully performed on say, multiple rugby players, I think you could feel pretty confident.

 

[Opak]

Wonder if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen would be coming back due to salary etc.

I really don't think Gibson would be going the other way. He's got an NTC which for sure would block a deal to Buffalo.

I also don't think UPL is an upgrade over a guy like Dostal. Lukas has a much more stellar pro record so far, plus he's younger than UPL.

 

[nbducksfan19]

I have pretty much stayed out of this fracas because most of it seems little more than picking at each other and a good deal of mental masturbation. In my own mind I can simplify the situation to this:

1) The org and its doctors HAVE to be satisfied that the treatment Eichel wants will lead to a recovery in a reasonable time that will enable him to play hockey at a high level, even if it's not quite where he was before. Without that there's no deal. Of course it's not a certainty, that's why he's available; but you can't take on a $50M obligation on a hope and a prayer. I think we all recognize that the org knows this.

2) Assuming then that the test in #1 can be met, then what do you pay? For me at the end of the day, if I get Jack Eichel I want him and our other star center to have some competent people to play with. We currently have four (4) top-6 FWs: Raks, Comtois, Zegras and Rico. It is VERY possible that we lose Rico in the ED if not protected, leaving us with 3. Sent 1 or 2 to BUF for JE and what's left? That's why for me none of our top 4 forwards can be part of this deal. Is JE > MC? Of course. Is he > Raks? No question. JE > (insert Duck player name)? But if we lose a good FW to get Eichel, we compromise both him and Zegras. Don't want to do that.

3) So that means 3OA plus lesser players/prospects. If that can be done, great. But that tweet about Gibby in the conversation popped up to me as perhaps the least hurtful of options that can get the deal done. Don't know if Gibby is the source of the dissension in the room that's been alluded to, but if he is it's a reason for a ticket out of town. Then @Static made a good point about the variability of goaltender performance. Which Gibby do we have, the one who once stood on his head, or the one who too frequently doesn't have his head in the game? Maybe he can be replaced with a 1A -1B of Freddy and Stolarz for example.

At the end of the day, having a Jack Eichel who can play makes us better; but he makes us MUCH better if there are competent guys for him AND Zegras to play with. The Gibby option makes that possible, and it doesn't gut the rest of the team.

I agree with most of this, however I am not missing out of Eichel (if point one is satisfied) because I want to keep Comtois definitely include max comtois, raks, ect. We can always see sign or trade for more forward depth, but you almost never have the opportunity to acquire a superstar.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Damnit there were so many posts since the last time I checked this thread I thought something had happened. But no. Just a discussion over a dumb opinion that won't change. Welcome to social media everyone. Glad we hashed this out.

 

[Trojans86]

Without wading too far into this, as this particular surgery has never been performed on a hockey player, there is no way for the Ducks doctors to know with any certainty whatsoever if the surgery would lead to a full recovery.

There are never any gaurantees but i think you have to look at probabilities. Is there a 20% chance of long term issues? 2%? 0.2%? The probability drives what consideration we would be willing to offer in return.

 

[tomd]

There are never any gaurantees but i think you have to look at probabilities. Is there a 20% chance of long term issues? 2%? 0.2%? The probability drives what consideration we would be willing to offer in return.

Jack Eichel’s Neck Surgery & Recovery - Die By The Blade

 

[Static]

The stats are meaningless when you play behind such bad team for this long, almost nobody would be successful by regular stats or advanced stats. Give Gibson a decent team so he can have a positive mental mindset

This isn't true. The advanced stats are meant to put goaltenders on an even playing field to show who is actually playing well and who is being sheltered. Gibson for the last two years performed below expectations for the shots he faced.

 

[Static]

I really don't think Gibson would be going the other way. He's got an NTC which for sure would block a deal to Buffalo.

I also don't think UPL is an upgrade over a guy like Dostal. Lukas has a much more stellar pro record so far, plus he's younger than UPL.

The NTC doesn't go into effect until this July.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I don’t think that’s necessarily true. If the surgery has been successfully performed on say, multiple rugby players, I think you could feel pretty confident.

Spinal surgery is always the last resort, because your back is never the same afterwards. There’s a high risk of complications and a high risk of return of symptoms. Zero guarantees with that treatment modality, period.

 

[Opak]

The NTC doesn't go into effect until this July.

Interesting, thanks for correcting me.

What a horrible fate that would be for Gibby though. Just as his NTC is about to kick in, he gets dealt to ****ing Buffalo on a contract that goes for 6 more years...

 

[Static]

Spinal surgery is always the last resort, because your back is never the same afterwards. There’s a high risk of complications and a high risk of return of symptoms. Zero guarantees with that treatment modality, period.

I almost think it's better that it's his neck than his back. I know the higher up the spine the more nerve complications, but it also isn't nearly as weight bearing.

 

[tomd]

Spinal surgery is always the last resort, because your back is never the same afterwards. There’s a high risk of complications and a high risk of return of symptoms. Zero guarantees with that treatment modality, period.

Worth a read:

Jack Eichel’s Neck Surgery & Recovery - Die By The Blade

 

[nbducksfan19]

Spinal surgery is always the last resort, because your back is never the same afterwards. There’s a high risk of complications and a high risk of return of symptoms. Zero guarantees with that treatment modality, period.

I am no expert on what eichel will do, I don’t think any of us are, as we don’t have access to his medical file and we don’t know what is just posturing to get out of Buffalo.

What I do believe is that our team of doctors can properly evaluate the situation and determine the probability he is fine or will be fine.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I am no expert on what eichel will do, I don’t think any of us are, as we don’t have access to his medical file and we don’t know what is just posturing to get out of Buffalo.

What I do believe is that our team of doctors can properly evaluate the situation and determine the probability he is fine or will be fine.

Jack Eichel’s Neck Surgery & Recovery - Die By The Blade

From that link (if you read the source papers) 80% of players returned to play, and the mean career after surgery was 3.2 years.

How much you gonna pay in a trade for those numbers?

edit - less facetiously, there are very low numbers in these studies - 25-101 at a quick reading. As I originally said, there simply isn’t the data to be “certain” about anything here.

 

[tomd]

From that link (if you read the source papers) 80% of players returned to play, and the mean career after surgery was 3.2 years.

How much you gonna pay in a trade for those numbers?

edit - less facetiously, there are very low numbers in these studies - 25-101 at a quick reading. As I originally said, there simply isn’t the data to be “certain” about anything here.

Also a 7-9 month recovery period which pretty much puts him out for most of 21-22. Who pays his $10 million salary in 21-22 while he recovers? Is it worth having Eichel for 4 years?

 

[Ducks DVM]

I almost think it's better that it's his neck than his back. I know the higher up the spine the more nerve complications, but it also isn't nearly as weight bearing.

It’s less weight bearing, but there’s a much higher degree of rotation in the neck than the lower spine (so a greater risk of causing issues above and below the fusion site), and being higher in the spinal column has the risk of affecting pain/function to the upper half of the body as well.

Spinal problems suck, period.

That article has links saying NHL players have has disc surgeries before, so I’m confused at the comments it’s never been performed on an NHL player previously. There are 3 different surgical techniques listed, but I can’t easily glean if it the generally more or less successful type that was tried on them, or for that matter what type Eichel was recommended. I’m also not going to look any more, because I’ve seen enough to know that anyone making definitive statements about this is talking out their ass - there simply aren’t enough numbers of surgeries in high impact athletes to be able to make meaningful conclusions.

 

[Static]

It’s less weight bearing, but there’s a much higher degree of rotation in the neck than the lower spine (so a greater risk of causing issues above and below the fusion site), and being higher in the spinal column has the risk of affecting pain/function to the upper half of the body as well.

Spinal problems suck, period.

That article has links saying NHL players have has disc surgeries before, so I’m confused at the comments it’s never been performed on an NHL player previously. There are 3 different surgical techniques listed, but I can’t easily glean if it the generally more or less successful type that was tried on them, or for that matter what type Eichel was recommended. I’m also not going to look any more, because I’ve seen enough to know that anyone making definitive statements about this is talking out their ass - there simply aren’t enough numbers of surgeries in high impact athletes to be able to make meaningful conclusions.

Eichel wants to have artificial disc replacement surgery, the team wants him to have a fusion (I think the anterior version).

 

[Ducks DVM]

Also a 7-9 month recovery period which pretty much puts him out for most of 21-22. Who pays his $10 million salary in 21-22 while he recovers? Is it worth having Eichel for 4 years?

The range was 1-8, there was no breakdown on how age affected longevity, and they generally conflate players from all sports, so it’s hard to interpret, but… this isn’t as clear cut as it should be to be trading prime assets.