Speculation: 2021 Expansion draft

[Doctor Soraluce]

I’m guessing if DW makes a deal it’s something like Donato included to make Seattle take Simek or something like that. I think Simek is gone one way or another this offseason along with Donato so sending them both to Seattle to assure yourself you get rid of some money on Simek makes sense. Not sure Donato’s trade market is going to be lively given everyone in the league knows he’s probably going to be unqualified after the expansion draft.

Very plausible but I frankly hope you're wrong as that's just not enough salary dumping to do anything good to this roster.

The funny thing about Simek is the Sharks record has been substantially better with him in the lineup versus when he was out. Circumstantial perhaps, but my sense is he does things that do not show up on the score sheet (or perhaps are recognized by hockey fans) that contribute significantly.

He was injured for the first part of the season too or at least played a little suffering from his knee recovery. He ended the season on IR too right? Maybe a long offseason does him good and he comes back a little more able to stay in the line up and play more to what we all hope he can.

 

[jarr92]

Narrator: It doesn't.

Labanc scored at a 42 point pace over a whole season and was ranked in the top 6 of Sharks forwards in basically every advanced analytic stat. AT MOST Labanc is overpaid by .5m - 1m for what he brings. He's a fine #6-7 forward on a winning team.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Looking at CapFriendly's simulator, we don't have all that many options at the moment. Under the rules we must leave 2 out of Couture, Kane, Labanc, Meier, and Hertl exposed. We must leave either Simek or Burns exposed. And we must leave either Jones or Korenar exposed.

I don't see Seattle having any interest in helping us out in the expansion draft either.

If we expose Jones, Burns, Couture and Labanc, then we force Seattle to decide to either take Labanc or a flyer on a younger guy like Gambrell (say, if he's not protected). I can't imagine there is a GM anywhere who has any interest in Jones, and I don't think Seattle would be very interested in Couture or Burns given their contracts, term, age, and (for Couture) injury history.

PS: The curveball in all this is whether there is another team that likes someone we leave exposed. Seattle could nab an exposed Shark solely to trade that player/contract to a third party for some other package. So someone out there might really be high on, say, Christian Jaros and be willing to work a side deal to trade a prospect and/or draft pick to Seattle in exchange.

My guess is that there will be a lot of fluidity to rosters prior to everyones final protected list being announced. I'm betting (hopeful) the Sharks protected list has at least one new player on it when it comes out.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Labanc scored at a 42 point pace over a whole season and was ranked in the top 6 of Sharks forwards in basically every advanced analytic stat. AT MOST Labanc is overpaid by .5m - 1m for what he brings. He's a fine #6-7 forward on a winning team.

I'm fine with the contract he got because I consider this deal and the 1mil deal together over those years when looking at his compensation. I also think he just had his best season as a 200 foot player in the NHL. Off the top of my head I can't think of a single brutal defensive gaff. Whereas I can remember a couple from the season prior. I think if Couture were healthier this season Labanc would have put up more points. I have no gripe with Labanc or what he provides at his cost in a vacuum. That being established, I just think a team in the cap situation the Sharks are in can replace him with someone cheaper from their overflowing stable of potential middle 6 wingers in an effort to allocate more dollars to positions that affect the overall team record like center and goaltender. This is all based on DW saying they intend to compete and be a playoff team. Are the Sharks a better team next season with a legit 3rd line center and Balcers (or insert winger here) playing in Labancs spot on Couture wing with Meier or Kane? IMO they are. Not dramatically to the point of being contenders but they probably win a few more games because of their new found center depth.

To be fair, ranking in the top 6 of this forward group isn't saying much. Means he was better than mostly rookies and Patty & Nieto. Would love to see the spread among the top 6 and where he falls in the hierarchy. If there is a big gap between Hertl, Kane, Meier, Couture and then a fall off to Labanc I think he should be considered replaceable.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

I'm fine with the contract he got because I consider this deal and the 1mil deal together over those years when looking at his compensation. I also think he just had his best season as a 200 foot player in the NHL. Off the top of my head I can't think of a single brutal defensive gaff. Whereas I can remember a couple from the season prior. I think if Couture were healthier this season Labanc would have put up more points. I have no gripe with Labanc or what he provides at his cost in a vacuum. That being established, I just think a team in the cap situation the Sharks are in can replace him with someone cheaper from their overflowing stable of potential middle 6 wingers in an effort to allocate more dollars to positions that affect the overall team record like center and goaltender. This is all based on DW saying they intend to compete and be a playoff team. Are the Sharks a better team next season with a legit 3rd line center and Balcers (or insert winger here) playing in Labancs spot on Couture wing with Meier or Kane? IMO they are. Not dramatically to the point of being contenders but they probably win a few more games because of their new found center depth.

I disagree. By removing LaBanc, you create a hole while filling another one. He’s not the problem and neither is Meier. They certainly can perform better. We need more depth, not less. We need even better players that have greater impact, not less or merely comparable.

The cap issues need to be resolved on their own by removing one or more of the highly paid contracts like Jones, Vlasic, or even Burns. Some have completely negative value which may make them unmovable and others we can still get good assets for like Burns while retaining some salary.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I disagree. By removing LaBanc, you create a hole while filling another one. He’s not the problem and neither is Meier. They certainly can perform better. We need more depth, not less. We need even better players that have greater impact, not less or merely comparable.

The cap issues need to be resolved on their own by removing one or more of the highly paid contracts like Jones, Vlasic, or even Burns. Some have completely negative value which may make them unmovable and others we can still get good assets for like Burns while retaining some salary.

I completely agree with all that but they appear to have painted themselves into a corner. This is just one possible solution that I believe could be mitigated by players that are already in the organization and far cheaper. The current hole at 3 C is far bigger IMO than the hole created by moving Labanc. In a perfect world I would buy out Jones and figure out a way to get Vlasic to another team to alleviate the cap problems. If that's not possible though they have to look at other areas where there are no trade restrictions. Pretty sure I haven't advocated getting rid of Meier unless it's for someone like Eichel. Personally I keep him over everyone other than Kane, Hertl and EK65 and maybe Ferraro. I still think he's one of the keys to this team becoming a threat again.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

I completely agree with all that but they appear to have painted themselves into a corner. This is just one possible solution that I believe could be mitigated by players that are already in the organization and far cheaper. The current hole at 3 C is far bigger IMO than the hole created by moving Labanc. In a perfect world I would buy out Jones and figure out a way to get Vlasic to another team to alleviate the cap problems. If that's not possible though they have to look at other areas where there are no trade restrictions. Pretty sure I haven't advocated getting rid of Meier unless it's for someone like Eichel. Personally I keep him over everyone other than Kane, Hertl and EK65 and maybe Ferraro. I still think he's one of the keys to this team becoming a threat again.

You are correct. Others have mentioned getting rid of Meier and I think it’s ridiculous. You don’t get rid of a player like that unless it’s for an obvious upgrade. He is unique in what he brings and can be a difference maker. When you bring in a Bordeleau and Ozzy, you will need a Meier to score the goals. He will turn his game around and is already showing what he is capable of in the World championships, granted with not as good competition.

 

[thrillermiller89]

Pretty reasonable deal IMO. Definitely the last contract the Sharks should be worried about getting rid of. The offense thing doesn't matter when you have 2(possibly 3) defenseman that ONLY bring offense. Balances out if you go that route. Also is the only defenseman other than Dillon in the last 10+ years that remembers hockey is a physical game. You win cups with guys like Simek, not with Burns. You apparently can't get a guy like that unless its a Schenn or Bogosian at half the cost, since the Sharks haven't done so, again, in 10+ years.

Prout and Pateryn don't count.

Agreed that it’s the last contract we should be thinking of getting rid of based on the other ugly ones on the payroll. However, it may be one of the easiest to get rid of. And frankly, he lost his place on the team and his availability, or lack thereof, gives no confidence to DW or the coaching staff.

 

[thrillermiller89]

Anybody else getting the feeling that Meier is developing into more of a soft sniper type instead of the strong bodied power forward type that he was projected to be when we drafted him?

If the 2021 Seattle 1st was on the table for him, straight up, would you move Meier? Or if Seattle scores another team’s Top 10 pick this year (through a cap dump deal) would you deal Meier for that pick?

 

[themelkman]

Anybody else getting the feeling that Meier is developing into more of a soft sniper type instead of the strong bodied power forward type that he was projected to be when we drafted him?

If the 2021 Seattle 1st was on the table for him, straight up, would you move Meier?

I dont think so. Would depend on what pick it is and who is around then. Overall 2021 is a very weak draft, so your hoping the guy you draft there even gets close to 30 goals likely.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Anybody else getting the feeling that Meier is developing into more of a soft sniper type instead of the strong bodied power forward type that he was projected to be when we drafted him?

If the 2021 Seattle 1st was on the table for him, straight up, would you move Meier? Or if Seattle scores another team’s Top 10 pick this year (through a cap dump deal) would you deal Meier for that pick?

Not for this draft. Like I said elsewhere, go back and watch the game 7 overtime against Vegas from 2 years ago before you even think about moving him. Remember that the guy who played like that is in there somewhere and just needs to be properly motivated or coached or whatever it takes. Vegas was lucky the OT went as long as it did.

 

[STL Shark]

Anybody else getting the feeling that Meier is developing into more of a soft sniper type instead of the strong bodied power forward type that he was projected to be when we drafted him?

If the 2021 Seattle 1st was on the table for him, straight up, would you move Meier? Or if Seattle scores another team’s Top 10 pick this year (through a cap dump deal) would you deal Meier for that pick?

He’s a better skating JVR type power forward. Has the body and tools to play physical but chooses to play more on the outside.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Dobberprospects mock done may 21st

7th Overall | San Jose Sharks | C Aatu Räty

"Nothing really vibed to me here except that I think Doug Wilson Jr is really smart and Räty has been harped on a ton this season. People might think this ends up being a reach but the Sharks solidify the middle of the ice with the second-best true center in the class."

I don't know enough about Raty so let me go do some research. Anybody with an opinion on him as an option if we're picking 7th?

 

[themelkman]

Dobberprospects mock done may 21st

7th Overall | San Jose Sharks | C Aatu Räty

"Nothing really vibed to me here except that I think Doug Wilson Jr is really smart and Räty has been harped on a ton this season. People might think this ends up being a reach but the Sharks solidify the middle of the ice with the second-best true center in the class."

I don't know enough about Raty so let me go do some research. Anybody with an opinion on him as an option if we're picking 7th?

For a long time he was heralded as the number 1, but had a bad year and was taken off the WJC roster this year. I know I said I liked risks but he seems too risky to me.

 

[DisbeliefInDW]

Meier definitely needs to be canned, but I wouldn't be that mad (or surprised) if he gets another year here. His IQ and physicality need major improvements but you very rarely see those change in a player who's 25, so I'd say there's a 95% chance nothing improves with SJ. Labanc is priority #1 to dump, even moreso than Jonesy.

Both him and Fiala love to skate into 2-3 players at a time with no dekes or speed change which obviously leads to 8-10 giveaways a game. Very weird. Not sure if its a swiss thing or what.

 

[themelkman]

Meier definitely needs to be canned, but I wouldn't be that mad (or surprised) if he gets another year here. His IQ and physicality need major improvements but you very rarely see those change in a player who's 25, so I'd say there's a 95% chance nothing improves with SJ. Labanc is priority #1 to dump, even moreso than Jonesy.

Both him and Fiala love to skate into 2-3 players at a time with no dekes or speed change which obviously leads to 8-10 giveaways a game. Very weird. Not sure if its a swiss thing or what.

Ok so instead of the worst goaltender in the league, we should dump the player with the second best WAR and 6th most points on the team. That makes sense.

 

[DisbeliefInDW]

Ok so instead of the worst goaltender in the league, we should dump the player with the second best WAR and 6th most points on the team. That makes sense.

aDvAnCeD aNaLyTiCs!!!!! Stop that shit with Labanc. Nobody is buying it. Same defense (or in this case, same reasoning) as others using Meier's QO against him. Both are asininely stupid. He fails every test; eye test, score sheet test, IQ test, which are the only three that matter. He sucks dude.

Also, defending 6th most points on the roster while playing the majority of the last 2 seasons on the top line is hilarious

 

[themelkman]

aDvAnCeD aNaLyTiCs!!!!! Stop that shit with Labanc. Nobody is buying it. Same defense (or in this case, same reasoning) as others using Meier's QO against him. Both are asininely stupid. He fails every test; eye test, score sheet test, IQ test, which are the only three that matter. He sucks dude.

Also, defending 6th most points on the roster while playing the majority of the last 2 seasons on the top line is hilarious

Labanc played the 10th most average time on ice per game and 5th highest with only forwards. You clearly arent going to listen, but what held Labanc back the most was the sharks lackluster powerplay and a terrible shooting percentage.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Labanc played the 10th most average time on ice per game and 5th highest with only forwards. You clearly arent going to listen, but what held Labanc back the most was the sharks lackluster powerplay and a terrible shooting percentage.

Yeah they gotta fix that f***in power play. No way it should be as terrible as it is with the guys they have. Looked night and day better once Barabanov was added to PP1 though so hopefully that's a sign of things to come.

 

[seroes]

Meier definitely needs to be canned, but I wouldn't be that mad (or surprised) if he gets another year here. His IQ and physicality need major improvements but you very rarely see those change in a player who's 25, so I'd say there's a 95% chance nothing improves with SJ. Labanc is priority #1 to dump, even moreso than Jonesy.

Both him and Fiala love to skate into 2-3 players at a time with no dekes or speed change which obviously leads to 8-10 giveaways a game. Very weird. Not sure if its a swiss thing or what.

While I get the frustrations with Labanc he needs to be placed into a role he can handle better with players who elevate his game. An elite 3rd line winger or he needs to be paired with a good center. Last season we only had 1 at any one time. First Hertl was shaking off the injury the rust an then Couture got injured was never the same.

As for getting rid of players...thats just nuts.

Jones needs to go if we really are planning to compete. He has single handedly lost us games for 3 seasons now. Enough is enough. The only reason to keep him is if we are really stealth tanking. He is perfect for that.

Karlsson and Vlassic need to go to but are unmovable. Burns needs to be traded while he still has some value. Coutures contract could easily become an anchor in 3 years. All of these players are bigger problems than Labanc.

On an aside if we are garbage again next year we should trade Hertl for a bounty rather than get another long contract.

 

[jarr92]

Would love to see the spread among the top 6 and where he falls in the hierarchy. If there is a big gap between Hertl, Kane, Meier, Couture and then a fall off to Labanc I think he should be considered replaceable.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

View attachment 440629

Thanks for this. I'm not sure how I'm supposed to feel about these stats after seeing this. If this is supposed to help identify your most effective player it seems to fail. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any scout or professional player evaluator in the sport that would watch this last season and think Labanc was a better, more effective player than Kane, Hertl... even Meier... Maybe he edges Couture considering his stretch of playing injured? Probably not. Does TOI include "all" TOI? So PK, PP and EV...? If yes then it's kind of misleading. 5 on 5 TOI might be a better indicator seeing as no one benefitted from the PP and Labanc doesn't PK. Actually Labanc being 4th in time on ice and 1st in scoring chances and 2nd in expected goals tells me he isn't good at actually getting the counting stats? Defensive deployment means he's sheltered and gets more o-zone starts which could contribute to more "easy" scoring chances? Not sure if I'm interpreting that right.

I know some of the actual hockey guys don't love the expected goals stat very much. I've seen that one called out as being unreliable in interviews FWIW. Boughner seems to believe in chances and HDSC. The fact this makes Labanc look so good makes me question it's use in determining a players effectiveness. I say that after having already stated that I think this last season was Labancs best 200 foot season. Labanc finished in the 4 or 5 spot in all the stats that count among the 5 established top 6 forwards. Points (5th), Goals (5th), Assists (4th). Considering Couture played almost half the season injured and ineffective offensively, Labanc probably should have finished last in all 3 categories.

So sure he's a guy you can play in the top 6 but I don't think his ability to produce is so great that he shouldn't be considered for replacement by someone like Balcers, Gregor or maybe even a Leonard (pick a middle 6 prospect) after an off season of training with the experience of having played most of this last season. Yeah there will be a drop off but maybe only initially. The team has to pinch pennies somewhere.

There are probably also going to be some UFA's just looking to play for a team that could be added for minimal cost. DW avoided those guys last off season but it sounds like he'll dip into the UFA pool more willingly this coming offseason. If they can keep him and address the other stated needs I'm fine with that.

Like I said, I thought he did well this last season especially considering he was deployed against the other teams best players along with Couture. If Couture is healthy and Meier is more consistent, that is a very good 2nd line. Hertl, Kane and the Barabanov we saw in the last couple weeks make a seemingly potent 1st scoring line. Gotta fix the bottom 6 (centers) and the goaltending.

I'm expecting a wild off season with lot's for us to discuss.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

While I get the frustrations with Labanc he needs to be placed into a role he can handle better with players who elevate his game. An elite 3rd line winger or he needs to be paired with a good center. Last season we only had 1 at any one time. First Hertl was shaking off the injury the rust an then Couture got injured was never the same.

As for getting rid of players...thats just nuts.

Jones needs to go if we really are planning to compete. He has single handedly lost us games for 3 seasons now. Enough is enough. The only reason to keep him is if we are really stealth tanking. He is perfect for that.

Karlsson and Vlassic need to go to but are unmovable. Burns needs to be traded while he still has some value. Coutures contract could easily become an anchor in 3 years. All of these players are bigger problems than Labanc.

On an aside if we are garbage again next year we should trade Hertl for a bounty rather than get another long contract.

I may be a glutton but I think EK65 will be fine once the forward scoring depth and PP is improved. Not sure who is replacing Burns in the top 4 but moving him will require acquiring another top 4 level defenseman. Most of your suggestions are for a team that is rebuilding. The Sharks have stated they are intending to compete so most of what you said isn't likely to happen.

I'm betting Hertl signs a long term extension this off season. Hopefully it's adjusted for the cap situation and he comes in at around 7mil per. It'll be for max term (8 years) though and probably have a limited NTC. Players will want stability if the cap isn't moving for 3-5 years. DW will want to get this done now instead of waiting until next off season right before he's an UFA where the price is likely inflated. Unless of course he's traded for someone like Eichel.

 

[tealzamboni]

Dobberprospects mock done may 21st

7th Overall | San Jose Sharks | C Aatu Räty

"Nothing really vibed to me here except that I think Doug Wilson Jr is really smart and Räty has been harped on a ton this season. People might think this ends up being a reach but the Sharks solidify the middle of the ice with the second-best true center in the class."

I don't know enough about Raty so let me go do some research. Anybody with an opinion on him as an option if we're picking 7th?

Not too long ago, he was the expected #1 pick, but his stock has fallen. Scouts were expecting him to do better in the top Finnish league. In the 2nd league he did fine. But, his numbers lagged when at the top league.

He arguably has the best raw tools of all the Cs in this class and his shot looks impressive. But, he hasn't put it all together compared to other C prospects. Though, one factor is that his team is always in contention - so maybe less flexibility/time for young uns. Even so, he didn't click offensively.

I think he might be like a C version of Timo. On one hand, he probably has the tools and effort to be productive. On the other hand, his hockey sense probably needs improvement, so that should be taken into account if the goal is to get his ceiling.

 

[seroes]

I may be a glutton but I think EK65 will be fine once the forward scoring depth and PP is improved. Not sure who is replacing Burns in the top 4 but moving him will require acquiring another top 4 level defenseman. Most of your suggestions are for a team that is rebuilding. The Sharks have stated they are intending to compete so most of what you said isn't likely to happen.

I'm betting Hertl signs a long term extension this off season. Hopefully it's adjusted for the cap situation and he comes in at around 7mil per. It'll be for max term (8 years) though and probably have a limited NTC. Players will want stability if the cap isn't moving for 3-5 years. DW will want to get this done now instead of waiting until next off season right before he's an UFA where the price is likely inflated. Unless of course he's traded for someone like Eichel.

8 years would make me vomit. I love Hertl but those knee injuries will not age well. Add that hit to the ones we already have and players we will need to extend....sheesh our cap will be screwed for years.

As for the rest, that is most likely true it won't happen. But the thing I keep coming back to is waiting to see Doug Wilson's actions this summer. Wilson will say anything but what he does doesn't always match up.