Speculation: 2021 Expansion draft

[LadyStanley]

SNOY: Gambrell is protected.

SNOY? State Nurse of the Year?

 

[Herschel]

I don't think he's holding anyone in particular back but given that his role is now almost definitively an extremely sheltered 3rd pairing role, I think they have ample players to fill that role at a much cheaper cost. There's also typically a lot of depth d-men available in free agency that would be cheap if this past off-season holds true to this one as well.

As far as zone starts go him and Simek have been anything but sheltered but I completely get the value vs. role... Vlasic is one of my all-time favourite Sharks and while I am still happy to see him in teal if he could be traded DW needs to pull the trigger.

 

[Cas]

SNOY? State Nurse of the Year?

Sharks Nostradamus of the Year, I think.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

SNOY:
Shocked, No or Yes?: Gambrell is protected.

 

[Nolan11]

Yeah it's either pay them to take a dump or protect your best and lose whatever. I don't think Jones can do anything to move me from dangling Meier to get him to go but Meier certainly could if he played at the higher level he's capable of but do it consistently. I just don't think he really wants to be here.

I think you are missing one plausible alternative, which is having Seattle pay us to expose one of our best players for them to market around. For that scenario, either Couture but more likely Burns could be exposed. Something like a pre-expansion draft of Gambrell plus future considerations (not protecting Burns) for a 2022 1st plus future considerations (trading us one of the players they draft for a 3rd, or so). While this is one possible scenario, I do not give it much of a chance of becoming reality.

Odds are, we will take the path of least resistance and protect our best, exposing Simek and Gambrell and be left in the same cap situation as this year. If i had to guess, I think Vlasic and Jones, along with Couture/Burns/Kane/Hertl/Meier/LaBanc and Karlsson are all on next year's starting roster. Buy-out/Trading of Jones after one more year if he doesn't turn it around to help us extend Hertl. No major changes or adds.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think you are missing one plausible alternative, which is having Seattle pay us to expose one of our best players for them to market around. For that scenario, either Couture but more likely Burns could be exposed. Something like a pre-expansion draft of Gambrell plus future considerations (not protecting Burns) for a 2022 1st plus future considerations (trading us one of the players they draft for a 3rd, or so). While this is one possible scenario, I do not give it much of a chance of becoming reality.

Odds are, we will take the path of least resistance and protect our best, exposing Simek and Gambrell and be left in the same cap situation as this year. If i had to guess, I think Vlasic and Jones, along with Couture/Burns/Kane/Hertl/Meier/LaBanc and Karlsson are all on next year's starting roster. Buy-out/Trading of Jones after one more year if he doesn't turn it around to help us extend Hertl. No major changes or adds.

You're right that it is a plausible alternative but you're also right in that it is a small chance of coming to fruition. I don't give the Meier/Jones to Seattle alternative very good odds at all of occurring. It's simply something I'd consider pushing for because I want to move dead weight contracts so that I can turn around and use that savings more efficiently. I'd probably push for more talent being brought on board in response because rebuilding isn't really viable with the contracts we do have. But a reset/rebuild could still benefit from that sort of move if they turn around and use that cap space to eat contracts for other teams in future-based assets rather than a current player. I expect the same sort of path of least resistance for this team this off-season. Odds are that they protect their best 7-3-1 arrangement which likely exposes Gambrell, Nieto, Simek, and probably Korenar. Considering Jones' run currently, I definitely expect DW to protect him since it makes him look less bad by doubling down on Jones after what would hypothetically be a solid season.

Given that path of least resistance sort of scenario, I'd expect Seattle to take Simek rather than Gambrell simply because they can probably get a 3rd round pick out of him in a trade or get decent value out of the three years he'd have left at 2.25 mil. If Seattle also wanted Gambrell, they could probably get him for less than a 3rd from us or just wait until he gets to UFA when he'd probably go there on his own.

I'd try to do more to fast track whichever path anyone would want to go on whether it's rebuild or retool but I don't expect the team to do so.

 

[matt trick]

I think I'd give up Meier to get rid of Vlasic, but not sure Jone's contract is that bad. He's not good, don't get me wrong, but $7M for Vlasic is criminal.

 

[Nolan11]

Perusing cap structures around the league, I think a 60% F/30% D/10% G split is fairly healthy distribution. We are closer to 50/40/10. That said, if I were DW and trying to right the ship, I would not seek a take Jones with Meier as a sweetener, at least not for one of my initial options. I think I agree with Matt Trick on Vlasic with Meier, above, but still not as my first option. No, if it were me I think my first priority would:

1. See if I could move Burns at the TDL or offseason (along with the minor players that could pick up a few late round picks). This requires a trade partner who could take him on without to much cap coming back, so Florida, Seattle, etc. If I could pick up a 2022 unprotected 1st without much of a cap dump , I'd potentially do it. Burns is worth his cap hit, currently, so the key here is to get a good pick that could out perform his cap-hit, in a year or two

2. Next priority would be to extend Hertl as soon as possible. Once off-season begins, see if the moving Burns entices Vlasic to work with me on trades. If so, retain about 2 M and see if any takers out there, assuming we add a 2022 2nd and they send us back a shorter term dump (so roughly salary neutral for next year or three).

3.After that, go shopping with the cap I have left. See if a player like Kilorn can be had for pennies on the dollar. I would also look into getting ghost or another tier down from Burns PMD looking for work in a bad economic situation (Using these players as examples, basically spend 9 M on two 2nd pair/line players instead of Burns and a 4th liner).

 

[themelkman]

SNOY:
Shocked, No or Yes?: Gambrell is protected.

No. Im going to go a step further even. I think hes dealt to seattle in a package to either take or not take someone

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The good thing about the path of least resistance where Gambrell is taken is that it forces the team to acquire a 3C which in that scenario would be the best thing to get to get better. They’re pretty well set in their top six, their depth wings, and on defense.

 

[Herschel]

Can someone remind me of the rules and timing regarding RFAs and the expansion draft?

With the Vegas draft, DW left UFAs like Jumbo unsigned until after the draft which meant they didn't need to be protected. Could they do this with RFAs like Donato, Balcers, Gambrell?

 

[Herschel]

Can someone remind me of the rules and timing regarding RFAs and the expansion draft?

With the Vegas draft, DW left UFAs like Jumbo unsigned until after the draft which meant they didn't need to be protected. Could they do this with RFAs like Donato, Balcers, Gambrell?

Nevermind... I thought this through and realized UFA could be selected by Vegas but that it didn't make any sense since they would become UFAs... I assume the same applies to RFAs hence why they are more likely to need protection

 

[LadyStanley]

Exposure/protection rules for @Herschel

Teams must expose one goalie (signed through 2021-22, or QO'd RFA), plus one defenceman (who played 27+ games in 2020-21 or 54 in previous two seasons) signed through 2021-22, and two forwards (27/54 and signed). Teams can protect one goalie, three defensemen and seven forwards (or one goalie and eight skaters].

Vegas did select a couple of UFAs. One was home town Deryk Engelland. The other was a guy who walked.

Seattle needs to pick 20 players under contract (or QO'd RFA goalie), the other ten can be pending RFAs or UFAs (or under contract). They also need to select at least 60% of cap $81.5m or $48.9m through expansion draft.

Seattle has a couple of days to negotiate with UFAs before announcing expansion draft selections.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Exposure/protection rules for @Herschel




Vegas did select a couple of UFAs. One was home town Deryk Engelland. The other was a guy who walked.

Seattle needs to pick 20 players under contract (or QO'd RFA goalie), the other ten can be pending RFAs or UFAs (or under contract). They also need to select at least 60% of cap $81.5m or $48.9m through expansion draft.

Seattle has a couple of days to negotiate with UFAs before announcing expansion draft selections.

Yeah. I think the process of being able to talk to pending UFA's before other teams should be very helpful.

 

[LadyStanley]

Kraken officially join NHL, can sign free agents, make trades

GM Francis talks about strategy for expansion draft

 

[LadyStanley]

Some thoughts on expansion draft exposure list.

Yes, you have to expose 1 goalie, 1 defensemen and 2 forwards, with the required experience and/or contract status.

Yes, you might expose a big ticket player.

But you do not want to put out someone so impactful that a team other than Seattle, might be induced to make a side deal to acquire.

For that reason I think that Burns will not be exposed (and Simek will).



So, my exposure list: Jones, Simek, Gambrell and Lebanc.

(Some may consider Lebanc a key cog in team, but I don't think he's been playing up to $4,725m contract.)

 

[themelkman]

Some thoughts on expansion draft exposure list.

Yes, you have to expose 1 goalie, 1 defensemen and 2 forwards, with the required experience and/or contract status.

Yes, you might expose a big ticket player.

But you do not want to put out someone so impactful that a team other than Seattle, might be induced to make a side deal to acquire.

For that reason I think that Burns will not be exposed (and Simek will).



So, my exposure list: Jones, Simek, Gambrell and Lebanc.

(Some may consider Lebanc a key cog in team, but I don't think he's been playing up to $4,725m contract.)

I would bet they sign and expose Nieto, Doug talked so highly about Labanc when he signed that deal

 

[Cas]

Some thoughts on expansion draft exposure list.

Yes, you have to expose 1 goalie, 1 defensemen and 2 forwards, with the required experience and/or contract status.

Yes, you might expose a big ticket player.

But you do not want to put out someone so impactful that a team other than Seattle, might be induced to make a side deal to acquire.

For that reason I think that Burns will not be exposed (and Simek will).



So, my exposure list: Jones, Simek, Gambrell and Lebanc.

(Some may consider Lebanc a key cog in team, but I don't think he's been playing up to $4,725m contract.)

This team is so lacking in forwards, I'd rather not lose even someone like Labanc. Better to resign Nieto or even Sorensen or Marleau to expose.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

Labanc could be a good trade piece later. He has value and can help add to a trade for a top forward or center. I’d rather he not be exposed if we can avoid it.

 

[LadyStanley]

In today's 31 Thoughts Podcast, Friedman heard that folks around the league think the cap could be FLAT for FIVE (5) YEARS.

So, I might suggest exposing older guys with big contracts and/or guys not living up to their current deals (to provide more cap flexibility).

Jones ($5.75m), Burns ($8m), LeBanc ($4.725m) and perhaps Meier ($6m) (if you really don't think he'll improve). That would clear a MINIMUM of $4.725m against the cap.

 

[Dr Quincy]

In today's 31 Thoughts Podcast, Friedman heard that folks around the league think the cap could be FLAT for FIVE (5) YEARS.

So, I might suggest exposing older guys with big contracts and/or guys not living up to their current deals (to provide more cap flexibility).

Jones ($5.75m), Burns ($8m), LeBanc ($4.725m) and perhaps Meier ($6m) (if you really don't think he'll improve). That would clear a MINIMUM of $4.725m against the cap.

Nonsense.

Why would you expose someone you could trade and get value back? The only one on that list that would be exposed is Jones.

 

[themelkman]

Nonsense.

Why would you expose someone you could trade and get value back? The only one on that list that would be exposed is Jones.

I can see an argument for Burns but Labanc and Meier would be insane.
Theres no point in saving money to pay worse players

 

[seroes]

In today's 31 Thoughts Podcast, Friedman heard that folks around the league think the cap could be FLAT for FIVE (5) YEARS.

So, I might suggest exposing older guys with big contracts and/or guys not living up to their current deals (to provide more cap flexibility).

Jones ($5.75m), Burns ($8m), LeBanc ($4.725m) and perhaps Meier ($6m) (if you really don't think he'll improve). That would clear a MINIMUM of $4.725m against the cap.

Jones will be exposed and Seattle won't touch him. We are stuck unless we swap bad contracts or buy him out. Burns still has some value. We would have to take a smaller bad contract back or retain, but we could get something.

The other two is just nuts to lose them for free. While I am not against a hockey trade or a trade for futures involving one of them, we cannot lose them for nothing. Meier especially would return quite a bit.

 

[DG93]

In today's 31 Thoughts Podcast, Friedman heard that folks around the league think the cap could be FLAT for FIVE (5) YEARS.

So, I might suggest exposing older guys with big contracts and/or guys not living up to their current deals (to provide more cap flexibility).

Jones ($5.75m), Burns ($8m), LeBanc ($4.725m) and perhaps Meier ($6m) (if you really don't think he'll improve). That would clear a MINIMUM of $4.725m against the cap.

Losing Meier or Labanc for nothing is awful asset management...I wouldn't even expose Kane to be honest. Exposing Burns is an option assuming no trade can be made though...

 

[thrillermiller89]

I wonder if DW tries to swing any deals with Seattle