NFL: 2021 Draft Prospects

MMC

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For those that follow it closely, how would you compare the top of the 2020 vs 2021 class by position?

Im most interested to hear opinions on Okudah vs Surtain jr, but Sewell vs Wirfs/Thomas/Becton/Wills, etc.
So far I'd say:

QB: 2021
RB: 2021
WR: very close
OL: very close (Sewell > any 2020 OL though)
TE: 2021
DT: 2020
DE: 2020 (similar in that Young and Rousseau are studs but it falls off after)
LB: 2020
S: 2021
CB: very close (Okudah is better than any CB in 2021 but both have good high end talent)
 
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Big Poppa Puck

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It just depends on the team. When a team already has their unquestioned starter or has made an investment in a high pick recently, they'll probably look elsewhere. Like what we saw with Rosen and the Cardinals was really rare, giving up on him after one year and taking a QB first.

I think who's available may change things, like if the Chargers have a bad enough year to pick 1 and Herbert doesn't look good at all, maybe they just immediately abandon ship on that pick and take Lawrence.

The thing with Rosen too is they fired the coach who drafted him. New coaches more often than not, want their own guy.
 
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StreetHawk

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The thing with Rosen too is they fired the coach who drafted him. New coaches more often than not, want their own guy.
We would likely see a RG3 type return of 3 first round picks for any team who holds the top 2 selections that is willing to move it.
 

93LEAFS

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Is Trevor Lawrence considered the best QB prospect since Luck?
There is a strong argument he is the best QB prospect of all-time or at least in recent memory. Yes, it is hard to say someone is a better prospect than Peyton Manning in hindsight but people forget Manning wasn't viewed as significantly ahead of Leaf or Tim Couch who came out in his year and the year after respectively. Elway is could be argued to be ahead but that was a completely different era of draft coverage.

I'd say he's ahead of Luck. He had the best true freshman season of any QB, and would have went 1OA is he was able to declare for this draft as a 20-year-old. Now, a lot can change in a year, but there really isn't any legit knock on him right now. The only one I've heard is he looks like a hippie/surfer dude, which is superficial at best.
 

Canes

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There is a strong argument he is the best QB prospect of all-time or at least in recent memory. Yes, it is hard to say someone is a better prospect than Peyton Manning in hindsight but people forget Manning wasn't viewed as significantly ahead of Leaf or Tim Couch who came out in his year and the year after respectively. Elway is could be argued to be ahead but that was a completely different era of draft coverage.

I'd say he's ahead of Luck. He had the best true freshman season of any QB, and would have went 1OA is he was able to declare for this draft as a 20-year-old. Now, a lot can change in a year, but there really isn't any legit knock on him right now. The only one I've heard is he looks like a hippie/surfer dude, which is superficial at best.
He had a pretty poor national title game this season and a pretty underwhelming start to the season and like every super prospect in any sport he will have every flaw nitpicked to death by the time next draft rolls around. Will that be enough to remove the generational QB prospect status? Most likely not, but Justin Fields' status has skyrocketed to where he's starting to put himself in the conversation to potentially challenge Lawrence as the #1 overall pick. Next season (if it happens) will obviously go a long way in deciding how it all plays out.
 

Trap Jesus

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There is a strong argument he is the best QB prospect of all-time or at least in recent memory. Yes, it is hard to say someone is a better prospect than Peyton Manning in hindsight but people forget Manning wasn't viewed as significantly ahead of Leaf or Tim Couch who came out in his year and the year after respectively. Elway is could be argued to be ahead but that was a completely different era of draft coverage.

I'd say he's ahead of Luck. He had the best true freshman season of any QB, and would have went 1OA is he was able to declare for this draft as a 20-year-old. Now, a lot can change in a year, but there really isn't any legit knock on him right now. The only one I've heard is he looks like a hippie/surfer dude, which is superficial at best.
I think Luck was more hyped than Leaf/Manning, along with being the most hyped QB in recent memory. Honestly, I think Vick may have been more hyped than Manning just because of how unique he was.

In terms of Luck vs. Lawrence, obviously it all depends on this year, but Lawrence to date is certainly pacing to be more hyped. Thing with Luck is that while he was a great recruit, he was not 5 star. He was the 7th ranked QB and 61st ranked recruit with an 82 grade coming in, and then was redshirted. He was also in the same year as Terrelle Pryor, who EVERYONE was talking about. Lawrence and Fields came in as the most talked about QB recruits since I don't even know when. And then to do what he did as a true freshman just elevated him to an insane level. While the INTs were a bad start this year, I think overall it was a great year for development, his underlying numbers were a bit better and he added a running dimension to his game. But yeah, Lawrence is that true phenom who came in being hyped as the next big thing, but actually delivered on it, which is so rare to see, especially for a QB.
 

93LEAFS

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I think Luck was more hyped than Leaf/Manning, along with being the most hyped QB in recent memory. Honestly, I think Vick may have been more hyped than Manning just because of how unique he was.

In terms of Luck vs. Lawrence, obviously it all depends on this year, but Lawrence to date is certainly pacing to be more hyped. Thing with Luck is that while he was a great recruit, he was not 5 star. He was the 7th ranked QB and 61st ranked recruit with an 82 grade coming in, and then was redshirted. He was also in the same year as Terrelle Pryor, who EVERYONE was talking about. Lawrence and Fields came in as the most talked about QB recruits since I don't even know when. And then to do what he did as a true freshman just elevated him to an insane level. While the INTs were a bad start this year, I think overall it was a great year for development, his underlying numbers were a bit better and he added a running dimension to his game. But yeah, Lawrence is that true phenom who came in being hyped as the next big thing, but actually delivered on it, which is so rare to see, especially for a QB.
Yeah, I cheer for Texas, and I remember Texas not being too worried because they thought they had the best 2009 QB (Garrett Gilbert) in state locked up when they missed on Luck in 2008

Lawrence is one of the very few highly touted QB recruits to live up to the hype. There is a long list of Mitch Mustain's, Dayne Crist's, etc. Even some really hyped ones, while great college QBs didn't necessarily have the skill sets that led to being highly hyped NFL prospects like Pryor or Jimy Clausen.
 
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StreetHawk

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Yeah, I cheer for Texas, and I remember Texas not being too worried because they thought they had the best 2009 QB (Garrett Gilbert) in state locked up when they missed on Luck in 2008

Lawrence is one of the very few highly touted QB recruits to live up to the hype. There is a long list of Mitch Mustain's, Dayne Crist's, etc. Even some really hyped ones, while great college QBs didn't necessarily have the skill sets that led to being highly hyped NFL prospects like Pryor or Jimy Clausen.
Jacob Eason who just got drafted in round 4 was the top recruit from his year in 2016. Hunter Johnson, now with Northwestern, was #18 overall across all positions in 2017, but struggled as a RS SO in his first year as a starter. So you never know. Not to mention plenty of 5 star QBs over the past several years have had to transfer because they got beat out like Ricky Town, Blake Barnett, etc down. The line.

I do wonder if a guy like Lawrence would pull an Eli and tell Jax that he doesn’t want to go there because of a lack of commitment to winning.
 

MaxV

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Penn State DE Jayson Oweh is really interesting. He is still raw, but has off the charts athleticism. He is a big breakout candidate.
 

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
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In 2018 i targeted Travis Etienne (sounds like "ETN") as the most phenomenal back since Barry Sanders.

I am a BIG D'Andre Swift fan (though his 2019 was less impressive than his 2018).

The greatest players i've seen in college football the last two seasons (f*** all expert/media blowhards, this is my opinion):

1. Simmons
2. Lamb
3. Etienne
4. Lawrence
5. Young
6. Burrow
7. Swift
8. Gordon (Seahawks signed him after he went undrafted this year; better than Minshew!)

Time will prove me right or wrong. I will be here to see. :)
 
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Say Hey Kid

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Trap Jesus

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I think teams are much more wary of taking a WR that high (I know it's not a mock draft, but just saying). There were 5 top 5 picks this decade at WR, but none higher than 4, and they were mostly in the first half of the decade. Last time you had a top 3 WR was Calvin Johnson, who was an absolutely legendary prospect. It's such an important position with passing offenses going the way they're going, but I think the thought is that they're waaaaaaaaaay easier to find in later rounds. Need plays such a large role, but I can't see a situation where Sewell goes after Chase.

Top WR Taken in Each Draft

2020: 12 (Henry Ruggs III)
2019: 25 (Marquise Brown)
2018: 24 (D.J. Moore)
2017: 5 (Corey Davis)
2016: 15 (Corey Coleman)
2015: 4 (Amari Cooper)
2014: 4 (Sammy Watkins)
2013: 8 (Tavon Austin)
2012: 5 (Justin Blackmon)
2011: 4 (A.J. Green)
2010: 22 (Demaryius Thomas)
2009: 7 (Darrius Heyward-Bey)
2008: 33 (Donnie Avery)
2007: 2 (Calvin Johnson)
 

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I think teams are much more wary of taking a WR that high (I know it's not a mock draft, but just saying). There were 5 top 5 picks this decade at WR, but none higher than 4, and they were mostly in the first half of the decade. Last time you had a top 3 WR was Calvin Johnson, who was an absolutely legendary prospect. It's such an important position with passing offenses going the way they're going, but I think the thought is that they're waaaaaaaaaay easier to find in later rounds. Need plays such a large role, but I can't see a situation where Sewell goes after Chase.

Top WR Taken in Each Draft

2020: 12 (Henry Ruggs III)
2019: 25 (Marquise Brown)
2018: 24 (D.J. Moore)
2017: 5 (Corey Davis)
2016: 15 (Corey Coleman)
2015: 4 (Amari Cooper)
2014: 4 (Sammy Watkins)
2013: 8 (Tavon Austin)
2012: 5 (Justin Blackmon)
2011: 4 (A.J. Green)
2010: 22 (Demaryius Thomas)
2009: 7 (Darrius Heyward-Bey)
2008: 33 (Donnie Avery)
2007: 2 (Calvin Johnson)

Wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals pick Chase very high next year. They're likely to still be awful, will probably lose AJ Green to FA and Chase has a connection with Burrow.

Sewell should be the top player on their 2021 board right now though. I completely agree with you re: not picking WR's Top 3 unless they're generational prospects like Megatron.
 

Halladay

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In 2018 i targeted Travis Etienne (sounds like "ETN") as the most phenomenal back since Barry Sanders.

I am a BIG D'Andre Swift fan (though his 2019 was less impressive than his 2018).

The greatest players i've seen in college football the last two seasons (f*** all expert/media blowhards, this is my opinion):

1. Simmons
2. Lamb
3. Etienne
4. Lawrence
5. Young
6. Burrow
7. Swift
8. Gordon (Seahawks signed him after he went undrafted this year; better than Minshew!)

Time will prove me right or wrong. I will be here to see. :)
Swift was drafted this year by the lions.
 

Halladay

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Of course he was. My post was about Etienne (a 2021 draftee) and i put him in the context of the other great college players i had seen and relatively ranked last season.
Awww, misread your post. Should have Burrow higher in that case for me.
 

StreetHawk

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Of course he was. My post was about Etienne (a 2021 draftee) and i put him in the context of the other great college players i had seen and relatively ranked last season.
I find it odd that any RB prospect would opt to remain in college more than the minimum given the punishment that position takes. Plus, every team points to age, so best IMO to try to get to free agency by age 25 (come out after 3 years in college, and 4 years of rookie contract). That at least gives you the best chance to secure 1 good payday of 2 average guaranteed years in your second contract.
 

member 157595

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I find it odd that any RB prospect would opt to remain in college more than the minimum given the punishment that position takes. Plus, every team points to age, so best IMO to try to get to free agency by age 25 (come out after 3 years in college, and 4 years of rookie contract). That at least gives you the best chance to secure 1 good payday of 2 average guaranteed years in your second contract.

Without a doubt. RB's need to get into the pros and get their guaranteed money ASAP. Their shelf life is short.
 

StreetHawk

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Wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals pick Chase very high next year. They're likely to still be awful, will probably lose AJ Green to FA and Chase has a connection with Burrow.

Sewell should be the top player on their 2021 board right now though. I completely agree with you re: not picking WR's Top 3 unless they're generational prospects like Megatron.
For a WR to be top 5, they would have to have that rare total package of size at 6'3 or bigger, strength, physically imposing like Julio, TO, Metcalf, etc., speed at 4.4, and excellent route running. Nowadays, you build your 3 WR core to have that combination. A speed guy, a slot guy who is a good route running, and a big WR for the red zone. Each of the #3-#6 WR on the roster should be built to backup the guy ahead of them.

Plus, plenty of very good WR got late 1st or 2nd. The dropoff between a #40 OA WR compared to one at #7 isn't that big. More of a drop off if you are comparing the 4th or 5th OT with the first one off the board, if we are talking top 10 picks.
 
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Lot of players are declaring for the draft today and opting out as the CFB season has only a few more weeks to go.

One of them is a Texas OL that is a projected 1st rounder. Asante Samuel's son at FSU also declared early as well as an LSU WR.
 

Memento

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I have a prospect crush on Nick Bolton of Missouri. If he falls to the Rams, I hope to holy fate we take him.

Also love Jaycee Horn (son of Joe Horn, cornerback out of South Carolina), Joseph Ossai (linebacker, Texas), and Jay Tufele (interior defensive lineman, South California), but they're going first round (and honestly, I'd take Ossai and Horn in the top fifteen, if not top ten.)
 

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