NFL: 2021 Draft Prospects

[MMC]

With the 2020 draft having just ended it's time to look ahead to the top prospects that will be available in next year's draft. I like next year's draft just as much as this year's, though I'm not certain I'll feel that way after next season. Top QB prospects in Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Jamie Newman, and Kellen Mond (not a fan personally). I feel like it's a deeper QB class in general. Lots of top WR talent as well some great RBs in Etienne and Harris. This draft will also be very interesting if there ends up being no football season this year.

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[Trap Jesus]

Sewell should go really, really high as an OT.

I'm waiting for 2022 to see if a DB can go #1 for the 2nd time in history (Stingley Jr.).

 

[MMC]

Sewell should go really, really high as an OT.

I'm waiting for 2022 to see if a DB can go #1 for the 2nd time in history (Stingley Jr.).

Sewell will go top 5 for sure, chance at going top 3. For Stingley in 2022, I have him 4th behind some order of Slovis, Howell, and Thibodeaux

 

[WeThreeKings]

See if Justin Fields can do better than Jake Fromm (from the show QB1)

 

[wings5]

See if Justin Fields can do better than Jake Fromm (from the show QB1)

Fields is a dual threat QB suited for the modern game who is a great threat with his athleticism and legs as much as his arm. Fromm's question marks were his athleticism and arm strength. Other than both being from Georgia they're not too similar. Still have hopes Fromm can turn into something.

 

[Canes]

Sewell should go really, really high as an OT.

I'm waiting for 2022 to see if a DB can go #1 for the 2nd time in history (Stingley Jr.).

If Patrick Peterson couldn't do it, I have my doubts for Stingley although Stingley is pacing to be a better pure CB than Peterson which still says a lot. Burrow and Young are generational type prospects and Odukah went 3rd overall this year and could've theoretically been a 1st overall in a weak draft class, so I could see a situation where Stingley goes 1st overall.

 

[Trap Jesus]

If Patrick Peterson couldn't do it, I have my doubts for Stingley although Stingley is pacing to be a better pure CB than Peterson which still says a lot. Burrow and Young are generational type prospects and Odukah went 3rd overall this year and could've theoretically been a 1st overall in a weak draft class, so I could see a situation where Stingley goes 1st overall.

What he did was unheard of though, as a true freshman he was head and shoulders above every other CB in college football, and a lot of people considered him the best non-QB last season. There's still so much time between now and his draft though. A lot of time to go down.

 

[93LEAFS]

I have a hard time not seeing a QB go one in a draft these days. The cap on draft-pick salaries has limited the hurt from missing high, and QB is by far the highest valued position. I know Myles Garrett went one in 2017, but for a variety of reasons, no one was sold on any of the QBs despite Mahomes now looking like the best QB in the league and DeShaun Watson not far behind. Stingley looked unreal, but I feel desperate teams for a QB will always be willing to trade a premium to get one at 1 with offers that are almost impossible to turn down even if the team drafting 1OA. I mean, the generally highest-graded players the last 3 years were either Nelson or Barkley in 2018, Bosa or Williams in 2019 and Young in 2020 (although Burrows was generally 3). Now, RBs or interior offensive lineman don't carry the premium of a CB (like WRs, Edge rushers and Offensive Tackle do). Since the current draft scale was implemented in 2011, QB's have gone 1OA every year but 2013, 2014, and 2017 (Fischer, Clowney and Garrett).

 

[GKJ]

One thing to see is if the NCAA cancels the football season. My instinct is that it doesn’t because college football supports every other sport, I mean if you cancel football you might as well cancel everything. But if it were to happen, don’t know what happens to eligibility, but it could make the supplemental draft interesting, for the first time in like 35 years.

I have a hard time not seeing a QB go one in a draft these days. The cap on draft-pick salaries has limited the hurt from missing high, and QB is by far the highest valued position. I know Myles Garrett went one in 2017, but for a variety of reasons, no one was sold on any of the QBs despite Mahomes now looking like the best QB in the league and DeShaun Watson not far behind. Stingley looked unreal, but I feel desperate teams for a QB will always be willing to trade a premium to get one at 1 with offers that are almost impossible to turn down even if the team drafting 1OA. I mean, the generally highest-graded players the last 3 years were either Nelson or Barkley in 2018, Bosa or Williams in 2019 and Young in 2020 (although Burrows was generally 3). Now, RBs or interior offensive lineman don't carry the premium of a CB (like WRs, Edge rushers and Offensive Tackle do). Since the current draft scale was implemented in 2011, QB's have gone 1OA every year but 2013, 2014, and 2017 (Fischer, Clowney and Garrett).

Always depends on how the seasons shake out and QB’s develop. The math is on your side, no one really knows what QB’s could break out. It’ll be someone but after Trevor Lawrence, there doesn’t seem to be that ‘it’ guy like we’ve had for the better part of the last 10 years. Need next season to play out first.

 

[Trap Jesus]

I have a hard time not seeing a QB go one in a draft these days. The cap on draft-pick salaries has limited the hurt from missing high, and QB is by far the highest valued position. I know Myles Garrett went one in 2017, but for a variety of reasons, no one was sold on any of the QBs despite Mahomes now looking like the best QB in the league and DeShaun Watson not far behind. Stingley looked unreal, but I feel desperate teams for a QB will always be willing to trade a premium to get one at 1 with offers that are almost impossible to turn down even if the team drafting 1OA. I mean, the generally highest-graded players the last 3 years were either Nelson or Barkley in 2018, Bosa or Williams in 2019 and Young in 2020 (although Burrows was generally 3). Now, RBs or interior offensive lineman don't carry the premium of a CB (like WRs, Edge rushers and Offensive Tackle do). Since the current draft scale was implemented in 2011, QB's have gone 1OA every year but 2013, 2014, and 2017 (Fischer, Clowney and Garrett).

It just depends on the team. When a team already has their unquestioned starter or has made an investment in a high pick recently, they'll probably look elsewhere. Like what we saw with Rosen and the Cardinals was really rare, giving up on him after one year and taking a QB first.

I think who's available may change things, like if the Chargers have a bad enough year to pick 1 and Herbert doesn't look good at all, maybe they just immediately abandon ship on that pick and take Lawrence.

 

[StreetHawk]

I have a hard time not seeing a QB go one in a draft these days. The cap on draft-pick salaries has limited the hurt from missing high, and QB is by far the highest valued position. I know Myles Garrett went one in 2017, but for a variety of reasons, no one was sold on any of the QBs despite Mahomes now looking like the best QB in the league and DeShaun Watson not far behind. Stingley looked unreal, but I feel desperate teams for a QB will always be willing to trade a premium to get one at 1 with offers that are almost impossible to turn down even if the team drafting 1OA. I mean, the generally highest-graded players the last 3 years were either Nelson or Barkley in 2018, Bosa or Williams in 2019 and Young in 2020 (although Burrows was generally 3). Now, RBs or interior offensive lineman don't carry the premium of a CB (like WRs, Edge rushers and Offensive Tackle do). Since the current draft scale was implemented in 2011, QB's have gone 1OA every year but 2013, 2014, and 2017 (Fischer, Clowney and Garrett).

How many teams in the top 8 of the draft in 2021 will be in need of a QB.

NFC West - Wilson, Goff, Murray, Garrappolo. Jimmy G is the one due to his contract who is the highest risk of being cut, but SF has too good a team to be picking that high in the draft. Would cost them at least 2 first and 2 seconds or 3 firsts to go from the 20's into that top end of the draft.

NFC East - Wentz, Haskins, Jones, Prescott. Prescott if he ends up on the franchise tag, could be let go. Haskins, if he doesn't show well under Rivera might get replaced.

NFC South - Brees, Ryan, Brady, Bridgewater. Brees may or may not retire. And they have Hill to hand the reigns over to if he does. Bridgewater, if he doesn't work out and Carolina is 6-10, could look to grab a QB in 2021.

NFC North - Rodgers, Foles, Stafford, Cousins. Would have thought Minny would have spent one of their many day 3 picks to move up to grab Eason while they have Cousins under contract. GB got Love. Other 3, if things fall apart this coming season, could look for a QB at the draft.

AFC West - Mahomes, Carr, Herbert, Locke. Carr is on the hot seat. Could be replaced if he doesn't show well with new weapons.

AFC East - Darnold, Allen, Tua, Stidham. Stidham, not a high pick, so if the Pats are sub .500, likely will try to move up to grab a QB.

AFC South - Watson, Rivers, Tannehill, Minshew. Jax for sure will be looking. Tenn, depends on how Tanny fares. And if Rivers is terrible, they may end up taking a look at Eason in the later part of the season to see how he has progressed.

AFC North - Jackson, Rothliesberger, Burrow, Mayfield - Mayfield on the hot seat in year 3 with new GM/Coach. Pitt, if Big Ben doesn't last the season has to find an heir.

Of the group that could want a new QB, how many are going to end up in the top 10 in the draft so that they package up their 2nd rounder, plus 2022 1st and whatever else is needed to trade up to grab a QB.

 

[93LEAFS]

It just depends on the team. When a team already has their unquestioned starter or has made an investment in a high pick recently, they'll probably look elsewhere. Like what we saw with Rosen and the Cardinals was really rare, giving up on him after one year and taking a QB first.

I think who's available may change things, like if the Chargers have a bad enough year to pick 1 and Herbert doesn't look good at all, maybe they just immediately abandon ship on that pick and take Lawrence.

If a team wants someone other than a QB, I would expect them to capitalize on the value of the 1st overall pick by trading down. I don't see any way Lawrence doesn't go one.

How many teams in the top 8 of the draft in 2021 will be in need of a QB.

NFC West - Wilson, Goff, Murray, Garrappolo. Jimmy G is the one due to his contract who is the highest risk of being cut, but SF has too good a team to be picking that high in the draft. Would cost them at least 2 first and 2 seconds or 3 firsts to go from the 20's into that top end of the draft.

NFC East - Wentz, Haskins, Jones, Prescott. Prescott if he ends up on the franchise tag, could be let go. Haskins, if he doesn't show well under Rivera might get replaced.


If
NFC South - Brees, Ryan, Brady, Bridgewater. Brees may or may not retire. And they have Hill to hand the reigns over to if he does. Bridgewater, if he doesn't work out and Carolina is 6-10, could look to grab a QB in 2021.

NFC North - Rodgers, Foles, Stafford, Cousins. Would have thought Minny would have spent one of their many day 3 picks to move up to grab Eason while they have Cousins under contract. GB got Love. Other 3, if things fall apart this coming season, could look for a QB at the draft.

AFC West - Mahomes, Carr, Herbert, Locke. Carr is on the hot seat. Could be replaced if he doesn't show well with new weapons.

AFC East - Darnold, Allen, Tua, Stidham. Stidham, not a high pick, so if the Pats are sub .500, likely will try to move up to grab a QB.

AFC South - Watson, Rivers, Tannehill, Minshew. Jax for sure will be looking. Tenn, depends on how Tanny fares. And if Rivers is terrible, they may end up taking a look at Eason in the later part of the season to see how he has progressed.

AFC North - Jackson, Rothliesberger, Burrow, Mayfield - Mayfield on the hot seat in year 3 with new GM/Coach. Pitt, if Big Ben doesn't last the season has to find an heir.

Of the group that could want a new QB, how many are going to end up in the top 10 in the draft so that they package up their 2nd rounder, plus 2022 1st and whatever else is needed to trade up to grab a QB.

For Trevor Lawrence, all teams will revaluate if they are drafting one. Remember, Colts walked away from Peyton Manning who still had elite years left to get Luck, Lawrence is likely to grade out as that level of prospect. Someone will trade down like the Rams did in 2012 and get a massive premium.

QBs are almost always going to go 1OA in the current format. A high-end QB on a rookie deal is probably the most valuable thing in football right now. Look at all the recent non-New England winners and how they were able to spend due to the cap freedom created by having a QB on a rookie deal. Seattle, Philly (although they started Foles in the playoffs) and KC all had QB's on rookie scale deals. Flacco was also on a rookie deal in 2013 although it isn't under the current scale system.

Also, if Mayfield is on the hot seat (as a Browns fan if we finish in last, I'd expect us to take Lawrence), then so is Darnold. And, what I've seen of Allen hasn't sold me, but he got to the playoffs last year.

 

[Trap Jesus]

If a team wants someone other than a QB, I would expect them to capitalize on the value of the 1st overall pick by trading down. I don't see any way Lawrence doesn't go one.

I agree, I was just refuting that a QB would/should always go #1. Barring some crazy unforeseen thing with his performance, Lawrence will be the top pick.

 

[93LEAFS]

I agree, I was just refuting that a QB would/should always go #1. Barring some crazy unforeseen thing with his performance, Lawrence will be the top pick.

QBs will go one, either because generally the team terrible enough to draft 1 needs to build around a QB or trading down to a team drafting a QB maximizes the value of the pick. I believe the new pay scale implemented after 2012 along with the shifting to more pass-happy offence will likely dictate this happening for the foreseeable future. But, you may get an odd year where people aren't sold on any of the QBs such as the Bortles year where he still went 3.

 

[StreetHawk]

If a team wants someone other than a QB, I would expect them to capitalize on the value of the 1st overall pick by trading down. I don't see any way Lawrence doesn't go one.


For Trevor Lawrence, all teams will revaluate if they are drafting one. Remember, Colts walked away from Peyton Manning who still had elite years left to get Luck, Lawrence is likely to grade out as that level of prospect. Someone will trade down like the Rams did in 2012 and get a massive premium.

QBs are almost always going to go 1OA in the current format. A high-end QB on a rookie deal is probably the most valuable thing in football right now. Look at all the recent non-New England winners and how they were able to spend due to the cap freedom created by having a QB on a rookie deal. Seattle, Philly (although they started Foles in the playoffs) and KC all had QB's on rookie scale deals. Flacco was also on a rookie deal in 2013 although it isn't under the current scale system.

Also, if Mayfield is on the hot seat (as a Browns fan if we finish in last, I'd expect us to take Lawrence), then so is Darnold. And, what I've seen of Allen hasn't sold me, but he got to the playoffs last year.

I agree, that with a talent like Lawrence, you reevaluate your QB situation.

But, the Colts with an injured Manning also ended up with the worst record. A healthy Manning, the Colts are not in the position to draft Luck or probably even trade up for him.

So, if any veteran QB got injured at the start of the season and their team ended up at the bottom because if it, similar to the Colts, then all bets are off.

I guess I was just looking at it from the POV, that if no QB got injured, how which teams would be at the bottom of the league.

If you are not paying your QB $30 mill, then you can spend in free agency to get a couple of key players. Once you have to pay your QB, there are going to be guys coming off either their rookie deal or 2nd contract that you have to let go.

 

[DougieSmash]

The Draft Network

 

[CHfan1]

How many teams in the top 8 of the draft in 2021 will be in need of a QB.

NFC West - Wilson, Goff, Murray, Garrappolo. Jimmy G is the one due to his contract who is the highest risk of being cut, but SF has too good a team to be picking that high in the draft. Would cost them at least 2 first and 2 seconds or 3 firsts to go from the 20's into that top end of the draft.

NFC East - Wentz, Haskins, Jones, Prescott. Prescott if he ends up on the franchise tag, could be let go. Haskins, if he doesn't show well under Rivera might get replaced.

NFC South - Brees, Ryan, Brady, Bridgewater. Brees may or may not retire. And they have Hill to hand the reigns over to if he does. Bridgewater, if he doesn't work out and Carolina is 6-10, could look to grab a QB in 2021.

NFC North - Rodgers, Foles, Stafford, Cousins. Would have thought Minny would have spent one of their many day 3 picks to move up to grab Eason while they have Cousins under contract. GB got Love. Other 3, if things fall apart this coming season, could look for a QB at the draft.

AFC West - Mahomes, Carr, Herbert, Locke. Carr is on the hot seat. Could be replaced if he doesn't show well with new weapons.

AFC East - Darnold, Allen, Tua, Stidham. Stidham, not a high pick, so if the Pats are sub .500, likely will try to move up to grab a QB.

AFC South - Watson, Rivers, Tannehill, Minshew. Jax for sure will be looking. Tenn, depends on how Tanny fares. And if Rivers is terrible, they may end up taking a look at Eason in the later part of the season to see how he has progressed.

AFC North - Jackson, Rothliesberger, Burrow, Mayfield - Mayfield on the hot seat in year 3 with new GM/Coach. Pitt, if Big Ben doesn't last the season has to find an heir.

Of the group that could want a new QB, how many are going to end up in the top 10 in the draft so that they package up their 2nd rounder, plus 2022 1st and whatever else is needed to trade up to grab a QB.

I could see the following teams, if they finish in the bottom pick a QB. Obviously I don’t see some of these teams finishing there.

LA Rams, 49ers, Falcons, Saints, Panthers, Bucs, Bears, Vikings, Packers (if they don’t like what they see in Love in practice), Lions, Cowboys (if Dak plays on the franchise tag), Redskins (if Haskins fails), Raiders, LA Chargers (could be a Rosen situation with Herbert), Broncos (if Lock fails), Steelers, Colts, Jags (if Minshew fails), Pats.

Getting a good young QB on a rookie deal is worth it, especially with Lawrence and Fields coming out. Right now I expect them to go 1 & 2. And if another QB has a Burrow season QB’s could go 1, 2, & 3.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Is Trevor Lawrence considered the best QB prospect since Luck?

 

[ecemleafs]

Micah Parsons probably leaves after 3 years at PSU. Guys a monster. Extremely athletic and dominant against the run and getting into the backfield. Was recruited as a DE out of HS but was converted to LB immediately.

 

[Halladay]

Is Trevor Lawrence considered the best QB prospect since Luck?

Yes, thought I really like Fields. I don't think it is a sure thing as many people think. Look at this past season, Burrow was behind Herbert, let alone Tua. I think many are sleeping on Fields.

 

[StreetHawk]

Yes, thought I really like Fields. I don't think it is a sure thing as many people think. Look at this past season, Burrow was behind Herbert, let alone Tua. I think many are sleeping on Fields.

Both Lawrence and Fields are with Elite programs at Clemson and Ohio State. Do not expect a drop for either of them next season. Lawrence, kind of understand a bit of the performance early in the year. Win the championship as a True Freshman where you start the majority of the games, can get a bit hard with all of the hype to then be locked in for 2 more NCAA seasons before you turn pro. But, he finished the season strong but ran into an excellent LSU team and just couldn't keep up with Burrow.

Fields, it was his first full season as a starter. So, this is his draft year, so expect him to perform.

Both kids will have their games picked apart this coming season.

 

[MMC]

I would still say Thibodeaux probably has a higher chance of going 1st overall in 2022 than Stingley does.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

It looks like a solid draft on paper.

 

[Roof Daddy]

For those that follow it closely, how would you compare the top of the 2020 vs 2021 class by position?

Im most interested to hear opinions on Okudah vs Surtain jr, but Sewell vs Wirfs/Thomas/Becton/Wills, etc.

 

[Halladay]

Both Lawrence and Fields are with Elite programs at Clemson and Ohio State. Do not expect a drop for either of them next season. Lawrence, kind of understand a bit of the performance early in the year. Win the championship as a True Freshman where you start the majority of the games, can get a bit hard with all of the hype to then be locked in for 2 more NCAA seasons before you turn pro. But, he finished the season strong but ran into an excellent LSU team and just couldn't keep up with Burrow.

Fields, it was his first full season as a starter. So, this is his draft year, so expect him to perform.

Both kids will have their games picked apart this coming season.

Only issue is there might not be a college football season. So it will be tricky to evaluate players like him who would have only played 1 season (see Trubisky). Going to be an interesting draft next year if there is no ncaa football season.