Speculation: 2021-22 Sharks Roster Discussion part IX

[Kcoyote3]

 

[Barrie22]

He has said that since this entire do we or do we not trade hertl saga has started. He wants to end his career in san jose, but he also wants to be on a winner and not spend the last 10 years of his career on a losing team.

 

[Hodge]

We already have over $40M committed to six players in 2023-24. Add Hertl at $8.5M and Meier at his $10M QO and you're basically left with $20M to sign nine forwards, three defensemen and two goalies.

I get that teams need to do their due diligence WRT contract negotiations but it would be completely asinine to re-sign both Hertl and Meier when it's going to be impossible to field a NHL roster around them let alone one that can compete for a Cup.

 

[stator]

To sign Both Hertl and Meier, Sharks would need to buyout Vlasic, trade Couture and Burns. However, those trades would likely require a package deal on the Shark's part. Too bad because both are better players than what they've been on the Sharks lately.

So, it's likely to me that Hertl will go UFA. Pens will probably be one of the potential buyers since Malkin's contract ends this season. They'll have cap room.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

We already have over $40M committed to six players in 2023-24. Add Hertl at $8.5M and Meier at his $10M QO and you're basically left with $20M to sign nine forwards, three defensemen and two goalies.

I get that teams need to do their due diligence WRT contract negotiations but it would be completely asinine to re-sign both Hertl and Meier when it's going to be impossible to field a NHL roster around them let alone one that can compete for a Cup.

If they want to keep them then they have to pay them. The worry about two seasons from now isn't all that great honestly. I think they'll shed themselves of Labanc and Simek and if they need cap space then they will buy out Vlasic if they have to. They will also be able to bury him at that point if necessary. Since they also have a lot of young talent they're going to want to give opportunities to, I don't think it's going to be of huge concern. Now they probably won't be contenders but Hertl and Meier should both know this before they sign any sort of contract. And let's be real, if Timo takes the 10 mil QO, he's gone and we all should know it so it's at most a one year issue.

 

[Hodge]

If they want to keep them then they have to pay them. The worry about two seasons from now isn't all that great honestly. I think they'll shed themselves of Labanc and Simek and if they need cap space then they will buy out Vlasic if they have to. They will also be able to bury him at that point if necessary. Since they also have a lot of young talent they're going to want to give opportunities to, I don't think it's going to be of huge concern. Now they probably won't be contenders but Hertl and Meier should both know this before they sign any sort of contract. And let's be real, if Timo takes the 10 mil QO, he's gone and we all should know it so it's at most a one year issue.

How exactly do you propose they shed themselves of Labanc and Simek without taking equivalent salary back? Who is lining up to pay Labanc $5.875 million dollars (his real salary in 22-23 and 23-24) when they can sign an equivalent forward in free agency for close to league minimum? Who would take on Simek's contract when he can't even crack the lineup of a terrible team?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

How exactly do you propose they shed themselves of Labanc and Simek without taking equivalent salary back? Who is lining up to pay Labanc $5.875 million dollars (his real salary in 22-23 and 23-24) when they can sign an equivalent forward in free agency for close to league minimum? Who would take on Simek's contract when he can't even crack the lineup of a terrible team?

I never proposed they'd shed them without taking equivalent salary back. They probably won't. They will probably trade them for a contract of similar amounts in a position they need. There's almost always a few teams wanting to shed a goalie or shed a center that the Sharks may want to use after Bonino walks. A player like Mrazek in Toronto or maybe Chris Driedger in Seattle are possibilities in net. As for Simek, it really doesn't matter if they find a home for him or not given his cap hit. If nobody wants him, ride him out as the #7 or buy him out. A buyout cap hit for him is 950k in 2023 if he's bought out then. A buried cap hit is 1.1 million. I think they can manage there. It's not as difficult as you make it out to be. Also, this not cracking the lineup schtick has got to go. He's only been scratched a few times this season.

The real question is in what they pay someone like Ferraro and Dahlen as RFA's. Overpaying them can make things legitimately difficult.

 

[Hodge]

I never proposed they'd shed them without taking equivalent salary back. They probably won't. They will probably trade them for a contract of similar amounts in a position they need. There's almost always a few teams wanting to shed a goalie or shed a center that the Sharks may want to use after Bonino walks. A player like Mrazek in Toronto or maybe Chris Driedger in Seattle are possibilities in net. As for Simek, it really doesn't matter if they find a home for him or not given his cap hit. If nobody wants him, ride him out as the #7 or buy him out. A buyout cap hit for him is 950k in 2023 if he's bought out then. A buried cap hit is 1.1 million. I think they can manage there. It's not as difficult as you make it out to be. Also, this not cracking the lineup schtick has got to go. He's only been scratched a few times this season.

The real question is in what they pay someone like Ferraro and Dahlen as RFA's. Overpaying them can make things legitimately difficult.

You don't even save 1.1 million by burying Simek since you have to replace him with a defenseman making at least 775k. So great now you have $20.3 million dollars to sign at least 12 skaters and both goalies.

Ferraro is getting at least $4M on his next deal so that goes down to around $16 million for 11 skaters and 2 goalies. You can't field a competitive team with that kind of cap allocation. Every forward on the roster other than Hertl, Meier, Couture and Labanc would need to make under $1 million.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You don't even save 1.1 million by burying Simek since you have to replace him with a defenseman making at least 775k. So great now you have $20.3 million dollars to sign at least 12 skaters and both goalies.

Ferraro is getting at least $4M on his next deal so that goes down to around $16 million for 11 skaters and 2 goalies. You can't field a competitive team with that kind of cap allocation. Every forward on the roster other than Hertl, Meier, Couture and Labanc would need to make under $1 million.

I’m not worried about icing a competitive team then. I’m only worried about providing young players with opportunities where available. If Hertl and Meier want to stay, I’m okay with that if it’s around the 8 mil mark. Labanc could be dealt for a goalie and his spot used to see if Wiesblatt, Coe, or Gushchin are ready. Most of the skaters you’re talking about filling will be done by young players on their elc’s so who cares? Simek doesn’t make enough to give a shit. They either find a place for him or they bury or buy out. They already have internal options there on the cheap.

 

[Hodge]

I’m not worried about icing a competitive team then. I’m only worried about providing young players with opportunities where available. If Hertl and Meier want to stay, I’m okay with that if it’s around the 8 mil mark. Labanc could be dealt for a goalie and his spot used to see if Wiesblatt, Coe, or Gushchin are ready. Most of the skaters you’re talking about filling will be done by young players on their elc’s so who cares? Simek doesn’t make enough to give a shit. They either find a place for him or they bury or buy out. They already have internal options there on the cheap.

If you're not worried about icing a competitive team in 2023-24 then why the hell are you signing Hertl and Meier long term? Hertl will be 31 by the start of the following season and exiting his statistical prime. Meier will be 28 and moving to the end of his. It makes no sense to sign these guys if you're already planning to waste their remaining good years on non-playoff teams.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If you're not worried about icing a competitive team in 2023-24 then why the hell are you signing Hertl and Meier long term? Hertl will be 31 by the start of the following season and exiting his statistical prime. Meier will be 28 and moving to the end of his. It makes no sense to sign these guys if you're already planning to waste their remaining good years on non-playoff teams.

Because there's more to building a team than whether they're ready to compete by x date. It makes plenty of sense to sign them when you're talking about integrating a lot of young players into the lineup the next couple years. Them choosing to re-sign is their choice but they should know that they're not set up to compete for the next little while. That's probably why they won't choose to sign here but you sign them if they're willing because the alternative is less appealing. I'm sorry but whatever they can get in a trade for Hertl or Meier is likely garbage compared to getting 8 more years of either player even if they're overpaid for some of it.

 

[Hodge]

Because there's more to building a team than whether they're ready to compete by x date. It makes plenty of sense to sign them when you're talking about integrating a lot of young players into the lineup the next couple years. Them choosing to re-sign is their choice but they should know that they're not set up to compete for the next little while. That's probably why they won't choose to sign here but you sign them if they're willing because the alternative is less appealing. I'm sorry but whatever they can get in a trade for Hertl or Meier is likely garbage compared to getting 8 more years of either player even if they're overpaid for some of it.

Is the goal to win a Stanley Cup at some point or not? If that's your objective you need to leverage the years in which you don't expect to be competitive by bottoming out and increasing your chances at a lottery pick. Signing Hertl and Meier long term only takes you further away from the goal of winning it all since you're not going to be able to compete while they're still in their prime but their presence on the roster hurts your chances of drafting 1st or 2nd overall. The trade return for both players is almost irrelevant to the decision especially given Hertl's rental status and Meier's contract situation hurting his value.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Is the goal to win a Stanley Cup at some point or not? If that's your objective you need to leverage the years in which you don't expect to be competitive by bottoming out and increasing your chances at a lottery pick. Signing Hertl and Meier long term only takes you further away from the goal of winning it all since you're not going to be able to compete while they're still in their prime but their presence on the roster hurts your chances of drafting 1st or 2nd overall. The trade return for both players is almost irrelevant to the decision especially given Hertl's rental status and Meier's contract situation hurting his value.

You were making it out like they couldn't even ice a roster and all I was saying is that that's exaggeration. Competitive is pretty subjective. What you believe is that is almost certainly not what the team believes. I'm sure they lower the bar on competitiveness for their own purposes to try and sell it to the fans but they act on it as well which is what really matters. They've clearly shown no willingness to bottom out so it's silly to expect it to happen. I think it's the best way forward but they're doing everything they can to avoid it and if they get Hertl to sign, it'll be avoided for quite some time.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think it should be obvious to anyone paying even a shred of attention that the goal of the 2022 San Jose Sharks is not to win a Stanley Cup.

It’s to avoid becoming the Arizona Coyotes 2.0

Rightly or wrongly, the Sharks won’t tank.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think it should be obvious to anyone paying even a shred of attention that the goal of the 2022 San Jose Sharks is not to win a Stanley Cup.

It’s to avoid becoming the Arizona Coyotes 2.0

Rightly or wrongly, the Sharks won’t tank.

Are they really worried that that could happen?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Are they really worried that that could happen?

To become like the Arizona Coyotes, I don't think so. I don't think they're worried about having a place to play so much as they are worried that tanking will kill attendance and make them lose even more money. I think they overvalue the brand's status at this point after what will be three seasons without the playoffs. I just don't think they've truly accepted that they're already feeling the effects of missing the playoffs and that the difference between missing the playoffs and tanking are probably not substantial. They're already fighting the current to poor results instead of just going with it.

 

[Hodge]

I think it should be obvious to anyone paying even a shred of attention that the goal of the 2022 San Jose Sharks is not to win a Stanley Cup.

It’s to avoid becoming the Arizona Coyotes 2.0

Rightly or wrongly, the Sharks won’t tank.

Which is ironic because they're well on their way to becoming exactly that given their attendance issues. Most Bay Area sports fans are frontrunners who will only help sell out the Tank if the team returns to its Thornton era heights of Cup contention. Trying to respectably miss the playoffs for the next five years while never drafting high enough to add elite talent will doom this team to Quebec City a lot faster than bottoming out for the next two years while the cap situation is at its worst before building back up.

 

[one2gamble]

Which is ironic because they're well on their way to becoming exactly that given their attendance issues.

This is a price issue more than a performance issue

 

[Alwalys]

We can go round and round all you want. Wasn't saying Timo isn't big. But it's exaggerated by position to lens and probably a cheap camera phone lens that has pronounced barrel distortion. Yes, Ward is still big, he's only 41, not 60. And finally, yes he is around 2 feet back from timo from the lens. This is obvious if you have the experience you claim with photography. Digital photography didn't come into the mainstream professionally until the early to mid 2000.s at the earliest. Might have been little crappy point and shoots but pros were using film well into the the 2000's. We have our negatives from our wedding from 2000's. It was something all photographers from that time period offered.

In 99-2000 the dslr revolution happened for professionals, was around for all that. Prosumer options were already coming out in 2000. What you can get from a cell phone today was a pipe dream back then. Ended up with a room full of darkroom equipment that hasn't been touched since acquiring.

If a professional was still using film in the mid 2000s they were a dinosaur.

 

[TheBeard]

So in two and a half years we’ve gone from a conference final spot, a passionate fanbase and an admiration for our winning consistency to a complete trainwreck of an organization that will never win again in SJ until the inevitable move to a different country.

Good lord, some of you probably shouldn’t be sports fans if you act like you’re on suicide watch when things turn sour.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Are they really worried that that could happen?

Obviously I’m not in the room or anything, but that’s what their actions say to me.

Only a team desperately trying not to tank does what the Sharks have done over the past three years.

Which is ironic because they're well on their way to becoming exactly that given their attendance issues. Most Bay Area sports fans are frontrunners who will only help sell out the Tank if the team returns to its Thornton era heights of Cup contention. Trying to respectably miss the playoffs for the next five years while never drafting high enough to add elite talent will doom this team to Quebec City a lot faster than bottoming out for the next two years while the cap situation is at its worst before building back up.

Exactly. This is the perfect time for the Sharks to tank. Attendance is especially bad because of the pandemic, but I think it’s obvious that people won’t come out to see a mediocre team. Can it really get worse by tanking?

It would be one thing if we purposely blew up a good team like we did in 2015, which I genuinely think destroyed the good vibes the Tank had and never got back even after a SCF run in 2016. But it’s already bad. May as well fully commit.

 

[Hodge]

So in two and a half years we’ve gone from a conference final spot, a passionate fanbase and an admiration for our winning consistency to a complete trainwreck of an organization that will never win again in SJ until the inevitable move to a different country.

Good lord, some of you probably shouldn’t be sports fans if you act like you’re on suicide watch when things turn sour.

This is literally an accurate description of the current state of affairs based on the standings and attendance over the last few seasons. How long will fans like you remain in denial? Even Doctor Soraluce seems to have given up on trying to sugarcoat this mess.

 

[hohosaregood]

This is literally an accurate description of the current state of affairs based on the standings and attendance over the last few seasons. How long will fans like you remain in denial? Even Doctor Soraluce seems to have given up on trying to sugarcoat this mess.

you're right. There's no reason to care about a team that won't be here anymore anyways so f*** em. I'm an SJ Sharks fan, not a QC Sharks fan. If they're leaving anyways then what's the point in caring how they fail.

 

[Hodge]

you're right. There's no reason to care about a team that won't be here anymore anyways so f*** em.

I would honestly not be against starting over with a new team in SF run by an entirely different ownership group and management team under the favorable expansion rules.

 

[hohosaregood]

I would honestly not be against starting over with a new team in SF run by an entirely different ownership group and management team under the favorable expansion rules.

Lol keep dreaming. The NHL isn't coming back to the bay for a 3rd time if they fail again. The smart move would be to start looking for a team you actually respect instead of sticking with this sinking ship.