2020 University Cup (Halifax, NS)

[Drummer]

Tournament Update - Odds

Here were/are the pre-tournament odds of winning.

ELO
Regardless of your feels on how USPORTS calculates ELO, it is a relative measure of team strength in a 1v1 match. Here are the percentages of winning the tournament.

1. UNB (42%), 2. USK (32%), 3. GPH (10%), 4. OTT(8%), 5. ACD (5%), 6. SMU(2%), 7. UWO(1.5%) & 8. UBC(0.5%)

Log5
Similar to ELO, Log5 looks a team's winning percentage and compares that to the opponents to determine the likelihood of a win. Since ELO increases with a win, much like a team's winning percentage - they will have similar predictive outcomes.

1. UNB (42%), 2. USK (34%), 3. GPH (8%), 5. ACD (6%), 4. OTT (5%), 6. SMU (4%), 7. UWO (1%) & 8. UBC (0.5%)

 

[Drummer]

Well, at least Saskatchewan won’t have to worry about losing a medal game this year.

I looked at the ELO chances/odds of Western winning this game and it's nuts (not as bad as SFX over UNB in 2010, but bad).

82:18 which is close to 4:1 and in some cases 5:1. USK should win that game 8-9 times out of 10.

 

[timbitca]

Honestly I had SMU and Western making it out of the first 2 games, so I predicted the U Cup 100% right this year.

 

[coolwood]

The picture Grandmaitre posted on twitter of all the seniors has 20 guys

Certainly tough for the program

 

[Drummer]

Tournament Update - Game 3 & 4

There are no games today, but here is how they matched up.

#1 New Brunswick(UNB) vs #8 British Columbia (UBC)

Road: UNB won the AUS title 2-1 over Acadia
vs
Road: Defeated Alberta 2-1 in the CW Semis, but lost 2-0 to Saskatchewan in the CW Finals

Record: 1st= 26-4-0 (.867) vs 27th = 9-14-5 (.321)
Offense: 1st= 5.33 g/game vs 32nd = 2.55 g/game
Defense: 1st = 1.90 g/game vs 17th = 3.07 g/game

I would expect UNB to have 40+ shots, be in the blue paint and just punish UBC with a relentless forecheck and have a 3-0 lead in the first followed by cruise control to a 6-1 win (UNB always gives up a goal for some reason in games like these). UBC has the same record as UPEI, same GFA as DAL and same GAA as Moncton - they are an amalgamation of the worse teams in the AUS - they have no chance.

UNB's ELO percentage: 89% | UNB's Log5 percentage: 90% = 10:1

#4 Ottawa(OTT) vs #5 Acadia (ACD)

Road: Ottawa wins the OUA-East over Concordia, but loses the Queen's Cup to Guelph
vs
Road: Win 3-1 series over SMU, but lose 2-1 to UNB in the AUS Finals to be the AUS Runner-up

Record: T10th= 17-9-4 (.607) vs T10th = 19-9-2 (.607)
Offense: 13th= 3.46 g/game vs 7th = 3.77 g/game
Defense: 11th = 2.82 g/game vs 16th = 3.07 g/game

On paper - this is the closest match of the tournament. Slightly better offense to Acadia, but better defense for Ottawa. Lots of maturity for Ottawa while Acadia has some guys from 2017 in Fredericton and are the host with lots of fans. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go to OT.

OTT's ELO percentage: 56% | OTT's Log5 percentage: 50.1% = 1:1

 

[Drummer]

ELO
1. UNB (42%), 2. USK (32%), 3. GPH (10%), 4. OTT(8%), 5. ACD (5%), 6. SMU(2%), 7. UWO(1.5%) & 8. UBC(0.5%)

Log5
1. UNB (42%), 2. USK (34%), 3. GPH (8%), 5. ACD (6%), 4. OTT (5%), 6. SMU (4%), 7. UWO (1%) & 8. UBC (0.5%)

Here is the update with the loses last night.

ELO
1. UNB (55% ^ 13), 4. OTT(14% ^ 6), 6. SMU(11% ^ 9), 7. UWO(11% ^ 10), 5. ACD (8% ^ 3), 8. UBC(1% ^ .5)

For ELO, SMU's ELO is strong enough to get them to the final more often and win. Same for OTT over ACD, but both of them still have to go through UNB first.

Log5
1. UNB (56% ^ 14), 6. SMU (18% ^ 14), 5. ACD (8.8% ^ 2), 4. OTT (8.7% ^ 3), 7. UWO (7.5% ^ 6), 8. UBC (0.7%)

For Log5, SMU has a good record and the bottom half of the draw got easier so they get to the finals more often now while Acadia and Ottawa still have to go through UNB.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

The NCAA is going to discuss the possibility of offering eligibility relief for athletes affected by the cancellations....I wonder if U Sports will also look into this?

 

[AdamMcg83]

The NCAA is going to discuss the possibility of offering eligibility relief for athletes affected by the cancellations....I wonder if U Sports will also look into this?

It certainly stinks for grads, but extra eligibility seems extreme - of the 35 teams, six will have seniors miss games - a maximum of three games per senior. I'd be shocked if that happened.

But more inportantly, these guys are planning on being done school. who wants to come back and enroll in at least three classes per term? With scholarship offers already out there to major Junior guys, who is paying for them to come back?

 

[FreddyFoyle]

Don't forget they only get 4 years eligibility in NCAA, as opposed to 5 years in Canada.

 

[VRedsRule]

I assume the potential US measures relate to spring sports like baseball, not season’s almost complete. I don’t think it makes any sense under any circumstance to grant an exemption for a cis sport, they are all in their last week of play.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

I assume the potential US measures relate to spring sports like baseball, not season’s almost complete. I don’t think it makes any sense under any circumstance to grant an exemption for a cis sport, they are all in their last week of play.

It is mainly for the spring sport athletes (baseball, lacrosse, volleyball), but it sounds like they may also consider it for the others who are missing out on conference/national tournaments.

But yes, I agree, it is unlikely anything happens here, for the reasons listed above among others.

 

[AUS Fan]

If the NCAA was to do this, it would be for Basketball players who may not have caught the eye of an NBA team because of March Madness being cancelled. The "rules" for hockey, lacrosse, tennis, soccer, etc are "different" from the "rules" for Basketball and Football.

 

[timbitca]

Can't see that happen with U Sports at any level or for any sport.

 

[Rob]

Overheard one of the Acadia organizers in the hotel lobby yesterday. She was practically in tears. Saw my UNB attire and wished me a safe drive home.

This has to be so gut wrenching for them. Who knows what the financial hit will be?

 

[Prov1X]

Overheard one of the Acadia organizers in the hotel lobby yesterday. She was practically in tears. Saw my UNB attire and wished me a safe drive home.

This has to be so gut wrenching for them. Who knows what the financial hit will be?

I was thinking that same thing, is Acadia on the hook for this? They shouldn't be, Hockey Canada and a couple forms of gov should be stepping in and making sure that Acadia are not footing the bill for this.
I am still uncertain who pulled the plug, Usports or Hockey Canada, because I am sure it was not Acadia or the host committee. Anyway, at the end of the day, it sucks for all those involved, players, coaches, fans, organizers!

 

[AUS Fan]

My understanding is that Hockey Canada did not want their officials to be there because of the risk of infection. Like it or not, it was their call to make and they made it. As a result of not having refs/linesmen, the games could not be played. So CIS had no choice but to cancel. I certainly hope that Acadia is not totally on the hook for this and neither the group that put on the event. The facts will come out in due time. Again, to repeat myself - I wish the best for all graduating players.

 

[VRedsRule]

Putting emotion aside, it was the right call given what had transpired in the 72 hours leading up to and during the event. You can question the U sport decision to proceed, or the Hockey Canada directive Thursday, but look at rest of world and what has been shut down. This is as close as the world has come to coordinated preventative measures to stop the spread of a disease. As much as I was looking forward to a great weekend in Halifax, and wish I was still there readying for a good feed before the playoff matches, I am totally okay with the plug being pulled. I feel for the players that have invested so much to get there, for the organizers and for those that travelled to see their sons or team play. But i am sure once they put the emotion aside they understand what is happening.

 

[Rob]

Ideally they should be given the chance to host again next year and UPEI hosting pushed back a year. Probably too many logistical problems to make that happen. At the very least the year after.

 

[AUS Fan]

Ideally they should be given the chance to host again next year and UPEI hosting pushed back a year. Probably too many logistical problems to make that happen. At the very least the year after.

I agree that Acadia should have another chance to host, but it can't be thrust upon them. They bid on this year knowing that the team they had, plus a few additions would be able to compete. They will lose some guys this year and next and may not be in a position for several years. For the same reason, UPEI bid on next year. So, you can't take that away from them.

 

[Rob]

I agree that Acadia should have another chance to host, but it can't be thrust upon them. They bid on this year knowing that the team they had, plus a few additions would be able to compete. They will lose some guys this year and next and may not be in a position for several years. For the same reason, UPEI bid on next year. So, you can't take that away from them.

Well if Acadia is given the opportunity to host again in 2022 I'm sure they will have no problem recruiting. Who knows if they will ask for it again though? They may be on the hook for the losses from this cancellation.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Not confirmed yet, but Ben Steiner reporting Acadia is expected to host the 2022 tournament and UPEI in 2023.

 

[Rob]

Not confirmed yet, but Ben Steiner reporting Acadia is expected to host the 2022 tournament and UPEI in 2023.

Really hope it is true.

 

[timbitca]

Calendar

As confirmed as it'll get. That page has been up for a while too.

 

[hockeyinsiderusports]

Really hope it is true.

Confirmed.
Acadia 22
Pei 23
Oua 24????

 

[AUS Fan]

This is funny because last night I was talking to a friend of mine in PEI and we got on to the recruits for Acadia.

I mentioned that perhaps they were gonna host in '22 but it was a secret.

And, Poof!! There it is next morning.

That's great for their program and the AUS.