2020 NHL Draft

[Pavelski2112]

The best stat you could come up with to predict Karlsson's next regular season is his career point totals? Beyond hilarious.

No one is actually analyzing the actual trade and how it would impact the team next year. It isn't EK65 for #3OVR. Obviously EK65 being paid 11.5 million is going to be better next year then the #3OVR. He will also be making about 10.5 million more then whatever player is picked. With Tierney and DeMelo being F/A's, the actual affect the trade has on next year's team is:

EK65 for #3OVR, Josh Norris, Rudolfs balcers, + 9.9 million in cap (assuming Norris and Balcers would be on the Sharks next year)

The Sharks have a terrible high-end forward core, and already have a high-end OFD in Brent Burns. I don't see how it's so ridiculous to you that perhaps the team could be better structured differently. You bring up the lack of high-end F/A's coming to the Sharks, but how about all the high-end players that have been traded to SJ and stayed? That sort of trade becomes a lot more difficult when you have less trade chips (Norris and Balcers) and less cap space (11.5 going to EK65).

Burns is 35 years old; he'll be declining sooner than later.

Again, all of this is under the assumption that anyone could've possibly known that the Sharks would be this bad this year, which we obviously didn't. Most of us at least expected a playoff team.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

The best stat you could come up with to predict Karlsson's next regular season is his career point totals? Beyond hilarious.

No one is actually analyzing the actual trade and how it would impact the team next year. It isn't EK65 for #3OVR. Obviously EK65 being paid 11.5 million is going to be better next year then the #3OVR. He will also be making about 10.5 million more then whatever player is picked. With Tierney and DeMelo being F/A's, the actual affect the trade has on next year's team is:

EK65 for #3OVR, Josh Norris, Rudolfs balcers, + 9.9 million in cap (assuming Norris and Balcers would be on the Sharks next year)

The Sharks have a terrible high-end forward core, and already have a high-end OFD in Brent Burns. I don't see how it's so ridiculous to you that perhaps the team could be better structured differently. You bring up the lack of high-end F/A's coming to the Sharks, but how about all the high-end players that have been traded to SJ and stayed? That sort of trade becomes a lot more difficult when you have less trade chips (Norris and Balcers) and less cap space (11.5 going to EK65).

So much of this isn't even what we were talking about. No one was talking about Norris, or any of that other stuff. No one (that I saw) was saying to cancel the deal or not to resign EK65. Not as a part of this particular exercise anyway. It was simply would you rather have ek65 in this moment or the 3OA and the cap space it gains you.

My 60% stat was based on a cursory look through 3OA draft choices for about 20 years. A bunch were high end players but another significant group were either mediocre or barely bottom feeder players.

And yes betting on a player with an incredibly consistent ability to produce over draft choices is the logical choice. It's not even close IMO.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

EK65s point per game production each season of his career.

.43
.60
.96
.82
.90
.80
1.00
.92
.87
.84 1st season in SJ, career low shoot % of 1.5% compared to career average 6.3%
.60
Career avg .82 PPG

IMO his .6% this last season is nothing more than an anomaly due to the tire fire this team was offensively. Hard for a defenseman to get points when the forwards are either injured or just bad.

Pretty much the model of consistency, like death and taxes, no sign of decline in production despite injuries. Him scoring is about as sure a thing as you'll ever get in hockey.

Someone else can do the research on 20 or 30 years stats of 3OA. I guarantee the average isn't going to compare favorably to these numbers especially due to how many forwards will be factored into those stats. The percentage that turn into 1st line or 2st pair or the overall scoring average of that draft position. Either number will NOT compare favorably to the nearly sure thing that EK65 is and will be for at least a few more years. EK65 remains a generational talent even now.

30 year old EK65 is the smarter choice over 3OA regardless if competing, rebuilding or whatever... IMO.

 

[hohosaregood]

Burns is 35 years old; he'll be declining sooner than later.

Again, all of this is under the assumption that anyone could've possibly known that the Sharks would be this bad this year, which we obviously didn't. Most of us at least expected a playoff team.

I'm really curious to see how Burns' decline goes. I've generally been told that a lot of what Burns does is pretty unorthodox technically. So I'd maybe imagine that once his physical attributes decline, the unorthodox techniques could break down really quickly.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I'm really curious to see how Burns' decline goes. I've generally been told that a lot of what Burns does is pretty unorthodox technically. So I'd maybe imagine that once his physical attributes decline, the unorthodox techniques could break down really quickly.

I'm at least somewhat hopeful that when it really starts to go, he can remake himself as a better defensive player. I think we saw a glimpse of that switch being flipped in the last playoffs. They put him and Vlasic together and suddenly he was making much better decisions and defensive plays. The more I think about it the more he reminds me of Al Iafrate who followed a similar path. Al was derailed by knee injuries toward the end though.

 

[jarr92]

Burns is 35 years old; he'll be declining sooner than later.

Again, all of this is under the assumption that anyone could've possibly known that the Sharks would be this bad this year, which we obviously didn't. Most of us at least expected a playoff team.

If Burns has .64 points per game again next season I will definitely eat crow. Just from my viewing perspective, I didn't see much of a physical decline from him last year. He absolutely had a bad season both in terms of point output and analytics, but I saw that more as a product of the team having a horrible year than anything else. To me it seemed like the team sucking had more of an affect on him than the other players in terms of mentality. He's such a freak when it comes to fitness I see Burns being good for at least another few seasons.

 

[Pavelski2112]

If Burns has .64 points per game again next season I will definitely eat crow. Just from my viewing perspective, I didn't see much of a physical decline from him last year. He absolutely had a bad season both in terms of point output and analytics, but I saw that more as a product of the team having a horrible year than anything else. To me it seemed like the team sucking had more of an affect on him than the other players in terms of mentality. He's such a freak when it comes to fitness I see Burns being good for at least another few seasons.

To be fair, I don't think he's on the decline currently either. Losing Pavelski probably had more to do with his points drop than almost anything else. I just don't think it's wise to rely on a 35-year old defenseman being good for much longer if we really are in for a few years of not being a contender.

 

[The Nemesis]

Attacking each other over the fact that you're attacking each other isn't any better. Nor are frequent comments attributing personal failings, biases, and intent to posts that are separate from the issue at hand.

The fact that people are (or "were". Some posts have been altered to remove this) referencing my request to clean it up and yet still fire volleys at other posters is kind of concerning. So here's the deal:

From this point on, anyone who crosses the line to make personal attacks or comments about other posters in the process of their debate is getting threadbanned.

I will not care who started it, I will not care if someone feels they were provoked, and I will not care if they feel that their comments were below their personal threshold for acceptability or appropriateness while others' weren't. I don't want this thread destroyed by people who continue to make it a less enjoyable or fruitful place to have a conversation. Consider this the last warning on the matter and please understand that I don't like doing this to anyone, so it's not personal. It's just that I value the ability for everyone to use this thread freely and without the risk of being attacked for their opinion.

And please, do not stand up to someone who is violating the rules. Report it and move on. If you get involved it makes things worse and makes more work for the mods. And there's a good chance it gets you in trouble too.

Please, I'm begging you to keep it together.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Seems that DW made a big bet on age-related decline being less important going forwards. There is some good logic to that idea...players take care of themselves, technology gets better, etc. Specifically, Vlasic relies on his brains, and Karlsson and Burns are freaks.

But maybe the trend is going the other way? The league is adopting more speed with such velocity that age-related decline is getting more apparent. Another factor is that today's young players grew up with unique techniques and tactics that they are using to tear the league apart. Look at the speed of someone like Mackinnon or Mcdavid. Look at Matthews's shot. Heck, look at how many stud young defensemen that are there in the league...many of them right-handed! It wasn't too long ago that offensively skilled right-shooting defensemen were the holy grail. Maybe DW made the mistake of evaluating assets like it was 2008 and not 2018...what was incredibly rare back then is more mundane now.

Am I off? Are all these young players going to fall off a cliff?

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Seems that DW made a big bet on age-related decline being less important going forwards. There is some good logic to that idea...players take care of themselves, technology gets better, etc. Specifically, Vlasic relies on his brains, and Karlsson and Burns are freaks.

But maybe the trend is going the other way? The league is adopting more speed with such velocity that age-related decline is getting more apparent. Another factor is that today's young players grew up with unique techniques and tactics that they are using to tear the league apart. Look at the speed of someone like Mackinnon or Mcdavid. Look at Matthews's shot. Heck, look at how many stud young defensemen that are there in the league...many of them right-handed! It wasn't too long ago that offensively skilled right-shooting defensemen were the holy grail. Maybe DW made the mistake of evaluating assets like it was 2008 and not 2018...what was incredibly rare back then is more mundane now.

Am I off? Are all these young players going to fall off a cliff?

It's entirely possible. I would still bet on players that can skate at an above average rate being able to survive longer than guys who can't.Patty was pretty good until he got to 35+. He's still an effective player for the 4th line even at this age IMO. Jumbo is kinda the freak in all this. He still posted decent possession numbers last season and if he wasn't saddled with Labanc and Sorenson he likely puts up better numbers. Guys who process the game faster than others will last longer too. Jumbo and EK65 both have that plus EK65 has the speed thing. Even after all his injuries he still has moments where he makes the other team look like they are moving in slow motion. Is he worth 11.5? Not with this static cap. But letting him go when they signed him would have knee capped the team for talent since they've never drafted a player who became that dominant. Better to sign the elite player and hope your prospects can fill in around him than overpay for a forward who likely wasn't nearly as dominant at their position like Panarin.

Patty is awesome but his longevity and health mixed with a good talent level is what has allowed him to achieve great numbers. Looking forward it seems like DW or maybe it's JR recognizes that though considering they drafted Ferraro and Merkley who are basically built for the modern NHL.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Seems that DW made a big bet on age-related decline being less important going forwards. There is some good logic to that idea...players take care of themselves, technology gets better, etc. Specifically, Vlasic relies on his brains, and Karlsson and Burns are freaks.

But maybe the trend is going the other way? The league is adopting more speed with such velocity that age-related decline is getting more apparent. Another factor is that today's young players grew up with unique techniques and tactics that they are using to tear the league apart. Look at the speed of someone like Mackinnon or Mcdavid. Look at Matthews's shot. Heck, look at how many stud young defensemen that are there in the league...many of them right-handed! It wasn't too long ago that offensively skilled right-shooting defensemen were the holy grail. Maybe DW made the mistake of evaluating assets like it was 2008 and not 2018...what was incredibly rare back then is more mundane now.

Am I off? Are all these young players going to fall off a cliff?

Hard to tell. Should know in another 10 years or so ..

As far as talent evaluation from DW goes, I am not sure which players drafted by DW you want to compare to the likes to Mackinnon or McDavid. All the guys you mentioned were top draft picks. The highest player drafted by DW since I seriously started following NHL was Meier. One area where I feel DW failed for a while is banking on just loading up on 'NHL' safe players and not really taking chances on game changers because they were not 'conventional' NHL players.

I don't think that DW is averse to changing. I just think he is too slow to adapt. Like finally taking a chance on players like Merkley or Goldobin (I know how that went). But that is what we need more of if we are drafting where we are on a yearly basis. The other issues is his stubbornness to not changing coaches and being loyal to a fault there.

I think DW is a very smart guy. He might see the changes happening right away but chooses not too take a chance to adapt right away. And by the time he does, unfortunately, we are playing catch up and repeating the past.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Seems that DW made a big bet on age-related decline being less important going forwards. There is some good logic to that idea...players take care of themselves, technology gets better, etc. Specifically, Vlasic relies on his brains, and Karlsson and Burns are freaks.

But maybe the trend is going the other way? The league is adopting more speed with such velocity that age-related decline is getting more apparent. Another factor is that today's young players grew up with unique techniques and tactics that they are using to tear the league apart. Look at the speed of someone like Mackinnon or Mcdavid. Look at Matthews's shot. Heck, look at how many stud young defensemen that are there in the league...many of them right-handed! It wasn't too long ago that offensively skilled right-shooting defensemen were the holy grail. Maybe DW made the mistake of evaluating assets like it was 2008 and not 2018...what was incredibly rare back then is more mundane now.

Am I off? Are all these young players going to fall off a cliff?

The age-related trend across the league has been pretty consistent since the lockout. Players peak around 22-26 and see major inflection points of decline around 28-31. Pavelski, Thornton, and Burns were always outliers in how well they aged and it was always stupid to just assume that guys like Couture and Vlasic would follow the same abnormal aging curve and pay them as such.

 

[one2gamble]

The age-related trend across the league has been pretty consistent since the lockout. Players peak around 22-26 and see major inflection points of decline around 28-31. Pavelski, Thornton, and Burns were always outliers in how well they aged and it was always stupid to just assume that guys like Couture and Vlasic would follow the same abnormal aging curve and pay them as such.

The interesting part of that is the contracts haven't really followed the stat lines yet

 

[Barrie22]

The interesting part of that is the contracts haven't really followed the stat lines yet

It will get there, just let boy genius in toronto keep his job long enough and all the up coming young stars will start to get paid before they really do anything in the league.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[hohosaregood]

If I'm looking at the playoff schedule correctly, at the latest, SCF Game 7 would be Oct 5. Assuming a day of rest between games from here on out.

 

[themelkman]

It cant come fast enough

 

[Nighthock]

It cant come fast enough

 

[LadyStanley]

Got moved from October 9/10 as they've decided that free agency starts October 9.

I'm guessing that QOs are due October 8, one day after draft.

 

[Nighthock]

Just trade up and take Askarov... I’m tired of the goalie guessing game.

 

[The Ice Hockey Dude]

anyone know what the 2021 draft is looking like? Good, fair, etc. Any high end players
hitting their draft year then?

 

[themelkman]

anyone know what the 2021 draft is looking like? Good, fair, etc. Any high end players
hitting their draft year then?

Very good D man year

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Just trade up and take Askarov... I’m tired of the goalie guessing game.

I'd like to see the team finally identify and develop a goaltender properly and I hope that Nabokov is the one to spearhead that because everything outside of him has shown a complete lack of anything resembling that ability. Problem is, it's way too early to tell truly how good Nabokov is at either of those things.

 

[ThorNton Apologist]

Just trade up and take Askarov... I’m tired of the goalie guessing game.

After signing Melnichuk I can’t see SJ targeting another young Russian goalie. This team needs potential top 6 forwards.

 

[Cas]

Very good D man year

I'm rooting for Cameron Whynot just because of his name.