Pre-Game Talk: 2020 NHL Draft

[Khrox]

whatever methodology led to Tim Stutzle at 10 is a brutal methodology. The guy reminds me of Nate Mackinnon at that age.

That is the biggest one here, Stutzle being at 10. But the guy does have a track record of being fairly good. I think part of it (as was mentioned before) is that he's playing the DEL, which isn't a league that regularly produces players, which might hurt his rankings a bit.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

No Askarov?

Says right before the rankings they aren't doing goalies.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Says right before the rankings they aren't doing goalies.

There you go again, expecting me to read.

 

[Dack]

whatever methodology led to Tim Stutzle at 10 is a brutal methodology. The guy reminds me of Nate Mackinnon at that age.

based on the rankings I’ll say it’s based on statistics, or something like NHLe

It is based on NHLe. It's comparing the thresholds guys hit and their age with all other players who've been drafted/developed (undrafted guys that turn out).

Stutzle ranks lowly largely because of how high scoring the OHL was this year and the fact that he's playing in a league that almost no NHLers ever come out of. That makes it harder do judge (mathematically) how impressive his production really is.


It's not a mock or a ranking. It's how a model that bases its player evaluations on age and production and compares the prospects to other players with similar production at the same age and ranks them based on that. It has its misses and its hits, in 2011 it didnt have Schiefele in round 1 but it had Kucherov 2nd overall and Gaudreau in the top 15.

I think a numbers based approach combined with traditional scouting is the way to go. Stutzle is who I'd take 3rd overall and even then the model thinks he's really good it's just a very strong year.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

So it doesn't take into account skating, size, awareness/IQ, compete etc - just strictly how many points they put up at their level vs others. The problem with this is that favours offensive leagues/systems/players, which I belive you did point out.
I'd put alot less faith in this than any actually scouting.

 

[Dack]

So it doesn't take into account skating, size, awareness/IQ, compete etc - just strictly how many points they put up at their level vs others. The problem with this is that favours offensive leagues/systems/players, which I belive you did point out.
I'd put alot less faith in this than any actually scouting.

Well no... it uses equivalencies meaning that it take into account league strength, a point in the SHL is far more valuable than a point in the OHL. A few pages back I posted the redrafts of 2011-2016 based solely on predraft data.


It has its misses for sure but it also identified a tonne of future steals at the time of drafting.


I'd also say size and skating are massively overrated especially size, I'm pretty sure smaller players turn out more often than big guys.

 

[Flameshomer]

2 rankings now that have Lundell falling to 18. If we could get him at 19 that would be a huge steal.

 

[Fig]

2 rankings now that have Lundell falling to 18. If we could get him at 19 that would be a huge steal.

If I'm Treliving, this is a year where maybe I try and get extra picks in the later rounds and let Button and crew have himself a field day. I think if using the Tiered approach that Conroy revealed a while ago, many clubs BPA tiers will widen and many teams may draft positional more than BPA. Also with developmental league situations up in the air, traditional criteria for BPA for some teams may change while other stay with their normal BPA evaluation criteria (ie: Draft Euro who can be loaned to other leagues vs NA dev leagues which may have risk of extended shut down).

I think the 2020 draft in a few years will look more like the 2017 draft with a ton of flawed but NHL calibre players vs something like the 2012 draft which had a ton of flubs.

Assuming this year is going to be full of projects anyways, moving a bunch of 2021 mid rounders for 2020 mid rounders to bridge that development time gap seems like a good idea. This might be viable because there might be quite a few GM who aren't as comfortable with 2020 draft and are more comfortable with 2021 which might have more traditional intel than the current draft.

I think this draft will be super weird and oddly exciting because it will constantly have moving parts up till the point a team is to walk to the podium, but I have not the desire in trying to predict this type of chaos.

 

[Flameshomer]

If I'm Treliving, this is a year where maybe I try and get extra picks in the later rounds and let Button and crew have himself a field day. I think if using the Tiered approach that Conroy revealed a while ago, many clubs BPA tiers will widen and many teams may draft positional more than BPA. Also with developmental league situations up in the air, traditional criteria for BPA for some teams may change while other stay with their normal BPA evaluation criteria (ie: Draft Euro who can be loaned to other leagues vs NA dev leagues which may have risk of extended shut down).

I think the 2020 draft in a few years will look more like the 2017 draft with a ton of flawed but NHL calibre players vs something like the 2012 draft which had a ton of flubs.

Assuming this year is going to be full of projects anyways, moving a bunch of 2021 mid rounders for 2020 mid rounders to bridge that development time gap seems like a good idea. This might be viable because there might be quite a few GM who aren't as comfortable with 2020 draft and are more comfortable with 2021 which might have more traditional intel than the current draft.

I think this draft will be super weird and oddly exciting because it will constantly have moving parts up till the point a team is to walk to the podium, but I have not the desire in trying to predict this type of chaos.

predictions have varied wildly. I agree with you that this is an ideal draft to hold a mitt full of a 2nd and even 3rds.

My favourite examples of wild player variation so far:
Chromiak (as high as 15, as low as 58)
Mysak (as high as 12 and as low as 46)
Zion Nybek (as high as 11 (pronman, weird) and as low as 60)
Connor Zary (as high as 10 and as low as 28)
Brendan Brisson (as high as 15, as low as 50)
Marat Khustinotov
Alexander Pashin

So many players that have ??? but also huge upside.

 

[Fig]

predictions have varied wildly. I agree with you that this is an ideal draft to hold a mitt full of a 2nd and even 3rds.

My favourite examples of wild player variation so far:
Chromiak (as high as 15, as low as 58)
Mysak (as high as 12 and as low as 46)
Zion Nybek (as high as 11 (pronman, weird) and as low as 60)
Connor Zary (as high as 10 and as low as 28)
Brendan Brisson (as high as 15, as low as 50)
Marat Khustinotov
Alexander Pashin

So many players that have ??? but also huge upside.

Silly question, but are some of the wild swings significantly more dissimilar than previous seasons? Are some of the swings due to one off scenarios such as drafting a player later because it's all or nothing (NHL or sitting at home in NA vs NHL or loan to Euro league)? I wonder if certain teams or scouts not yet adjusting for these types of circumstances is causing some of the messed up variations in rankings. (In all seriousness, I don't know but I'd love to learn something new).

For instance I'm thinking of a guy like Ilya Nikolayev (sp?) where he was ranked as a 2nd round talent by many scouting reports and we were lucky to nab him in the 3rd. I think this is no different than many Russian players?

I wonder if this reverses this season because the KHL will continue to play vs the NA leagues might potentially not play this season creating a ton of projects due to stalled development and potentially stunted players who are locked into playing in NA only?


I also want to repeat and agree with you about the extra picks, but not just in the 2nd and 3rd. Heck, with what we have seen so far with DmZ, Wolf, Mangiapane, Phillips etc. Just give the man any form of fricken currency in 2020 to throw around. Nickels, dimes, pennies whatever. Let the man gamble on penny stocks, nickel slots and I think he will give us a pay off like 100x over in the next two seasons.

 

[Flameshomer]

Silly question, but are some of the wild swings significantly more dissimilar than previous seasons? Are some of the swings due to one off scenarios such as drafting a player later because it's all or nothing (NHL or sitting at home in NA vs NHL or loan to Euro league)? I wonder if certain teams or scouts not yet adjusting for these types of circumstances is causing some of the messed up variations in rankings. (In all seriousness, I don't know but I'd love to learn something new).

For instance I'm thinking of a guy like Ilya Nikolayev (sp?) where he was ranked as a 2nd round talent by many scouting reports and we were lucky to nab him in the 3rd. I think this is no different than many Russian players?

I wonder if this reverses this season because the KHL will continue to play vs the NA leagues might potentially not play this season creating a ton of projects due to stalled development and potentially stunted players who are locked into playing in NA only?


I also want to repeat and agree with you about the extra picks, but not just in the 2nd and 3rd. Heck, with what we have seen so far with DmZ, Wolf, Mangiapane, Phillips etc. Just give the man any form of fricken currency in 2020 to throw around. Nickels, dimes, pennies whatever. Let the man gamble on penny stocks, nickel slots and I think he will give us a pay off like 100x over in the next two seasons.

Valid questions that I don't have real answers to. But to the first, in my own anecdotal view, the variation in this draft is much more substantial.
Typically, you'll have the same sets of players locked in to a spot with about +/- 5 spots between rankings. IMO this has what lead to "tier" ideology that we hear about from clubs. There are sets of players who there is consensus on and they often only vary within that same group. You might have 2-3 players who catch random fans and rocket up individual rankings to become real outliers, but they are generally limited and well identified (an example might be Kylington's pre draft disparities, etc.)
This year is completely different. There is only really one set (the top 10 ish players in the draft) that seems to have consistency among rankings, and even that is suspect (lundell dropping recently for example.) Outside of that top 10 is a f***ing gong-show. Nearly every player ranked 10-31 on mocks or rankings has incredible variation between their highest and lowest listing. I have never seen pre draft rankings that have 10+ players that can equally be found in the 2nd or 1st rounds depending on who you ask and what time of day it is. I'm not a pro but I am an avid arm chair-er, and have been following prospects relatively in depth for over 10 years now, and this disparity is mind boggling to me.

I like what you said about the Opposite KHL effect coming to fruition this year, and I think it's absolutely true. Look at how Khustinodov, Pashin, and Makhmidullin (and even Askarov) have risen dramatically in the last couple of weeks.

 

[GumbyCan2]

He ended up doing it. Just a model, no personal opinion as far as I can tell.

Wow. T. Steutzle at #10 for Winnipeg?
Ive seen numerous mock drafts that nobody has Steutzle lower than #6 and many are suggesting LAK will take him #2 over Byfield. And, he lists Jarvis as a RW, when he was listed on any rosters I've seen last season as a Center. I know he lined up at RW sometimes and Center most times.

 

[GumbyCan2]

2 rankings now that have Lundell falling to 18. If we could get him at 19 that would be a huge steal.

Could trade Monahan for more need positions and futures and not miss much at C as long as Lundell adjusts and fits as early as some euro hockey experts predict.
He has game and the tools to be an Eric Staal/ Michael Backlund- type player.
Many think he is NHL ready sooner than later!

 

[Flameshomer]

Wow. T. Steutzle at #10 for Winnipeg?
Ive seen numerous mock drafts that nobody has Steutzle lower than #6 and many are suggesting LAK will take him #2 over Byfield. And, he lists Jarvis as a RW, when he was listed on any rosters I've seen last season as a Center. I know he lined up at RW sometimes and Center most times.

This was one of the most crazy rankings I've seen so far, but it does exemplify what Dack and I were speaking about: the draft has a crazy amount of differing opinions, and as such the second and maybe even third round will be littered with potential steals.

That one is heart breaking IMO. We miss out on Lundell, Mercer, Amirov in the picks directly above ours. All three will be NHL contributors, and should be closer to 10. If the draft falls that way I hope we lunge at Foerster and hope that Gunler keeps falling until pick 2.

 

[Body Checker]

Would love a 2nd 1st rounder pick around ours so we could add both a forward and dman. A few combos I would like - Holloway/Guhle, Wallinder/Lapierre, Gunler/Schneider

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Would love a 2nd 1st rounder pick around ours so we could add both a forward and dman. A few combos I would like - Holloway/Guhle, Wallinder/Lapierre, Gunler/Schneider

Yeah as much as I would love a forward, our D pipeline is looking dire. Fingers crossed we go a forward and a D in the first two rounds at least. the 20-50 range this year is even more wacky than normal this year imo.

 

[MakeCgyGreatAgain]

Would love a 2nd 1st rounder pick around ours so we could add both a forward and dman. A few combos I would like - Holloway/Guhle, Wallinder/Lapierre, Gunler/Schneider

I think that’s a great plan. I think the blue line needs to be addressed early. I like Cotton in the 2nd round. But I’m thinking he might go early in the 2nd.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Would love a 2nd 1st rounder pick around ours so we could add both a forward and dman. A few combos I would like - Holloway/Guhle, Wallinder/Lapierre, Gunler/Schneider

Of those the only likely one might be the last (Gunler/Schneider). Even that I doubt.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

I think that’s a great plan. I think the blue line needs to be addressed early. I like Cotton in the 2nd round. But I’m thinking he might go early in the 2nd.

Cotton? Not a name I've seen in most lists. Highly doubt he goes early 2nd.

 

[MakeCgyGreatAgain]

Cotton? Not a name I've seen in most lists. Highly doubt he goes early 2nd.

Maybe I have him higher than others. I’d be happy with him.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Button has us taking Justin Barron. Amazing draft -1 year. Looked like a top 5-10 pick. Had injuries like crazy this year. Sounds like the 6’2 RD we could really use long term

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Button has us taking Justin Barron. Amazing draft -1 year. Looked like a top 5-10 pick. Had injuries like crazy this year. Sounds like the 6’2 RD we could really use long term

You're not promoting taking a Dman 1st are you?

Barron has dropped alot throughout the year, but like you said was highly regarded. Wasn't it blood clots he had? I know there was lots of talk about him being medically able to continue to play.
I think he's in that same category as Guhle/Schneider/Wallinder/Grans as late 1st rnders

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

You're not promoting taking a Dman 1st are you?

Barron has dropped alot throughout the year, but like you said was highly regarded. Wasn't it blood clots he had? I know there was lots of talk about him being medically able to continue to play.
I think he's in that same category as Guhle/Schneider/Wallinder/Grans as late 1st rnders

He had blood clots and now a shoulder injury

I think he seems like a guy that just had a brutal season but could be a top pair guy. I think you gotta take those home run swings in the first round. C’s and D.

plus I feel like our fan base doesn’t really appreciate how bad our RD depth is. Andersson, Kinvall and Yelesin.

 

[crackdown44]

He had blood clots and now a shoulder injury

I think he seems like a guy that just had a brutal season but could be a top pair guy. I think you gotta take those home run swings in the first round. C’s and D.

plus I feel like our fan base doesn’t really appreciate how bad our RD depth is. Andersson, Kinvall and Yelesin.

Don’t take Brodie off this list. Don’t

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Don’t take Brodie off this list. Don’t

yeah I am very much in the re-sign Brodie camp. But I still think we need another guy long term.