Pre-Game Talk: 2020 NHL Draft

GumbyCan2

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Sign Hall to win the lottery. Simple math.
Then trade Money and Hanifin to Ott for :
Brady Tkachuk and a couple prospects (maybe C-Logan Brown or Rw/C- up&coming Drake Batherson) and their later 1st rd pick. We could target an available r.h.s. D in the draft, between 2 1st rd picks.
Sign Hall to win the lottery. Simple math.
Brady Tkachuk can play, and gas played Center.
Top line now of Taylor Hall(L)- Brady Tk(C)- Matthew Tk(R). Could be high scoring level, opponent destroying, in your face with skill, attacking line for a long time! Then have Johnny on next line with: either, Dube at C and Lindy on RW, or Backs at C and Lindy RW. Decent 1-/-2 punch of a different make up, ire than past. Other combos could be tinkered with, too. I like a potential of this!
Would probably mean lowered Goaltending, Defense would be combo of Rookies and AHLl "grads" on minimal $ contracts. Next re-up on many could the cap-strapped too. We already are cap strapped anyways, for a couple years!
 

GumbyCan2

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Laf/Stutzle/Byfield/Drysdale/Sanderson/Perfetti/Rossi/Quinn/Lundell/Askarov/Holtz/Raymond

From everything I’ve heard those are the top 12 guys.

we are likely looking at one of:

Seth Jarvis
Dylan Holloway
Hendrix Lapierre
Connor Zary
Dawson Mercer
Kaiden Guhle
Braden Schneider
Ruslan Amirov
Tyson Forrester

maybe a D like Grans or Wallinder too. Edit: Brendan Brisson and Noel Gunler could also be choices.

Personally I would love Mercer, Holloway, Zary or Lapierre
RH D need I wouldn't mind Braden Schneider! He will become an Adam Foote/ Kevin Bieksa type top4 D with a little Offense maybe! He is physically NHL capable and skating, strength, smarts on D-zone reads NHL level ready, so says some scouts reports. He steadily rose and proved his skills all year.
 

GumbyCan2

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Honestly I'd be okay with most of the names on the list. I really like Mercer and Jarvis though.

Jarvis had 63 points in 26 games before the pandemic hit. If the WHL season hadn't been cancelled he'd be going a lot higher imo.

RW/C, right handed shot, explosive skater, kills penalties, a lot to like.

He is not very big as Centers go, and high junior totals do not predict or make the player in the NHL. Complete different animal to "wrassle with". Not saying I do not like Jarvis, or think he will be good. Do not base one player over another solely on points in one sector of juniors, is all I am saying. Not the best predictor because many a player cannot replicate their previous scoring into the NHL for a few years, anyways.
 

GumbyCan2

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Oh boy...


I kinda hope Janko's couple more years NHL, if your predictions comes thru, is not with the Flames. He takes up over 1.5 $ mil cap space and a spot, for youngsters trials, experience and maybe better for the team. He is pedalling sideways and seems to paddle forward with one hand and reverse with the other , 1/2 the time last 2 years. Yes, he showed a "focused, hard-nosed side" and on the attack 1 or 2 games against the Jets. But...was missing over 50% of time during the season.
 

Flames Fanatic

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He is not very big as Centers go, and high junior totals do not predict or make the player in the NHL. Complete different animal to "wrassle with". Not saying I do not like Jarvis, or think he will be good. Do not base one player over another solely on points in one sector of juniors, is all I am saying. Not the best predictor because many a player cannot replicate their previous scoring into the NHL for a few years, anyways.

.....

I literally listed his best attributes alongside his numbers. Numbers do not make an NHL player, but you certainly don't ignore them either.
 
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Dack

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Tristan Robbins seems to be getting a lot of Brayden Point comparables, are there any Blades fans who've seen him play?
 

FLAMESFAN

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The Avalanche board is doing a mock draft. I took Dylan Holloway and Tyler Kleven for the Flames.

I like Holloway and I know he's a bit of a gamble if he can provide O in the NHL, but if he can....
As for Kleven....I'm holding out hope we could still get Jurmo/ORourke at that point.
 

Ledge And Dairy

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I like Holloway and I know he's a bit of a gamble if he can provide O in the NHL, but if he can....
As for Kleven....I'm holding out hope we could still get Jurmo/ORourke at that point.
Holloway is my hopeful choice. He heated up a lot at the end of the season with like 7 points in the last 9 games. He is an excellent skater, big and physical too. Can play all 3 forward roles (mostly center). It's kinda unfair to base him off of his NCAA numbers, he is playing against people up to 4 years older than him. Unlike the rest of the players in the top 30 who are all playing against people their age or younger.
 

FLAMESFAN

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Holloway is my hopeful choice. He heated up a lot at the end of the season with like 7 points in the last 9 games. He is an excellent skater, big and physical too. Can play all 3 forward roles (mostly center). It's kinda unfair to base him off of his NCAA numbers, he is playing against people up to 4 years older than him. Unlike the rest of the players in the top 30 who are all playing against people their age or younger.

As I mentioned, I like the player and what he could become...but I don't agree its unfair to assess him based off this past year. Just on his own team both Caufield & Turcotte are only a bit older than him (all 3 are born 2001) and those 2 were PPG. Now its true for many players who play a more physical game that their development takes a bit longer, but if we draft him I'd be hoping he can approach that ppg standard. If Turcotte graduates, he should have a great chance at doing that.
 

Body Checker

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I can see Zary, Bourque, Amirov, Gunler and Barron left on board and near top of who remains on Flames list. I like the upside of all except Zary. He seems like a safer pick but I think we should go for more of a home run swing than a double.
 

Dack

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So when I made this thread I posted Bader's top 32 or whatever players avaliable. He's recently posted what the first round of each draft from 2011-2016 would have looked like if just his model was picking. This uses only predraft data so it doesn't at all take into account the development

The rules for this we're as follows.


1st overall doesn't change and no overagers are taken into account (this impacts guys like Gostisbehere, Mangiapane and Lebanc and Parayko though it wouldn't have rated him high anyways). The player rating (average/replacement producer, bust or star) is based solely off of points per game that's why a guy like DeAngelo shows up as a star even though he's a middle pairing guy. The model obviously has it's flaws but I thought this was kind of cool to see. Finally there is something weird going on with the Waterloo Blackhawks of the USHL, almost every year they seem to have a no-name player cracking the top 30, a couple commenters were wondering if the numbers were messed up and some of these players were getting more points at home.

The Hockey Prospecting Re-Draft Series: 2015

That's his write up on the 2015 draft, I think it makes a good case for using numbers in scouting. Obviously you need to watch the prospects as well or you'd be taking Mitch Vande Sompell 7th overall but incorporating it could help avoid low impact players early in the draft.
 

BigRangy

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Is there an updated version of Bader's list? I see it was posted in Feb, wonder how far Jarvis rose.
 

Dack

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Is there an updated version of Bader's list? I see it was posted in Feb, wonder how far Jarvis rose.

I'd imagine he's quite high now. 42 NHLe and a February birthday. He's probably in the 5-10 range. He's a no brainer at 19 if he's there (which I doubt). Bader may be working with an NHL team currently, part of the reason I screenshoted and shared his top 32 is because I remembered last year he posted a top 10 that was much different than the consensus (I remember Harley being top 5ish) and took it down after being hired by an unnamed NHL team.


If he's not and there's no clear faller I may be aboard the Jacob Perrault train, if there's one guy who I think should be there and may possess elite talent it's him.

In the 2nd I'd like a D man, I'm a fan of RoR. Benning and Poirier seem like worthwhile gambles to me as well.
 

Dack

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He ended up doing it. Just a model, no personal opinion as far as I can tell.
 

Flames Fanatic

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He ended up doing it. Just a model, no personal opinion as far as I can tell.


I wouldn't be terribly upset with Bourque, if Quinn wasn't the pick right after haha.

Very interesting to see Stutzle so low, Perrault that high, and a few other of note.
 

Dack

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I wouldn't be terribly upset with Bourque, if Quinn wasn't the pick right after haha.

Very interesting to see Stutzle so low, Perrault that high, and a few other of note.
He said Stutzle is likely only so low because of how strong the class is and that he's playing a league almost no one ever comes out of.

I'm a big fan of Perrault though, I get he might has issues but in the late teens-mid 20s, he would be a steal. I think he has 60-70 point potential in the NHL. If you read the article it kind of explains why certain players are where they are and why. As well as throwing in some honorable mentions and overagers worth taking.

Another thing I noticed about his top 32 is it's pretty Russian heavy compared to consensus lists.
 

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He said Stutzle is likely only so low because of how strong the class is and that he's playing a league almost no one ever comes out of.

I'm a big fan of Perrault though, I get he might has issues but in the late teens-mid 20s, he would be a steal. I think he has 60-70 point potential in the NHL. If you read the article it kind of explains why certain players are where they are and why. As well as throwing in some honorable mentions and overagers worth taking.

Another thing I noticed about his top 32 is it's pretty Russian heavy compared to consensus lists.

Yeah I see Perrault somewhere in the 12-18 range myself.

As for it being Russian heavy, perhaps its just the removal of the Russian bias. Hard to say. I think it's also just there is a particularly deep crop of Russians this year.
 
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FLAMESFAN

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Perreault @ 8? Nybeck & Pashin at 11/12? Wow, really doubt that happens.

As for Perreault, the skills are there but I've heard he's lazy at times. I always prefer guys with agressiveness & strong work ethic. I have no problem giving up some skill for those traits. Foerster seems high there too, but I'd rather have him than Perreault IMO.
 

Tkachuk Norris

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He ended up doing it. Just a model, no personal opinion as far as I can tell.


whatever methodology led to Tim Stutzle at 10 is a brutal methodology. The guy reminds me of Nate Mackinnon at that age.

based on the rankings I’ll say it’s based on statistics, or something like NHLe
 

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