It would take a supreme collapse but there is an outside possibility Arizona could finish with the 9th worst record (they have been trending in the wrong direction for quite some time now). While it is more likely they (we) wind up with the 12th pick or so, it certainly is not impossible. Can you just imagine if we do have 1.9 and somehow a guy like Holtz or Raymond does slide a bit? Every year there’s a guy who does inexplicably fall. Considering there is a clear tier dropoff right now after the top 8 prospects (and Askarov), it would be tremendous if we found ourselves with two picks in the top 9. Alas, we can dream...
Holtz or Raymond won't fall. If there's a top-tier player who could fall, I'd say it's Perfetti.
Perfetti is an offensive magician, but he's also the same combination of not big/not fast which drops players every year (see: Cole Caufield, Nick Robertson, etc etc).
To me, this is a very interesting draft. We can say with great confidence that Lafreniere is going #1 overall. At #2, Byfield has to be considered an overwhelming favorite -- the only player I can see with any chance of overtaking him there is Stutzle. And this is where it gets intriguing -- because Stutzle could also conceivably drop to the #4-#6 area, if a team prioritizes defense (Drysdale) or pure goalscoring ability (Holtz), or simply has not scouted Germany enough and fell in love with a Raymond or Rossi who they've seen more. It sounds absurd, but this is precisely what happened with Anze Kopitar dropping out of the top 10. Also, we cannot ignore the Askarov factor -- this is a kid who can go anywhere between #4-#25 overall.
Pretty much, picks #3 through #8 are a crapshoot in terms of what order they're going to go. Then, picks #9 through #20 are another crapshoot. Mock drafts and prognostications are going to be all over the place. My #2 overall defenseman in this draft is Shakir Mukhamadullin, but I've seen him ranked as low as the third round. I've seen Czech scoring sensation Jan Mysak ranked in top 10s and barely in the top 50. It's certainly a weird one. Here's how I'd mock it today (though it changes daily):
1 DET LW Lafreniere
2 LA C Byfield
3 OTT W Raymond
4 NJ C Stutzle
5 ANH W Holtz
6 OTT D Drysdale
7 BUF C Rossi
8 NYR C Lundell
9 CHI LW Perfetti
10 MIN LW Holloway
11 NSH G Askarov
12 MTL W Amirov
13 NJ RW Quinn
14 WPG C Zary
15 CGY D Mukhamadullin
What's my reasoning for having a potential franchise talent like Stutzle falling into the Devils' laps at #4? It's not homerism so much as Ottawa has not drafted a player who was not from North America or Scandinavia since Filip Chlapik in 2015 -- and that pick is not looking very good right now. Before that, you'd have to go back to Jakub Culek in 2010, and that pick was also an absolute bust. I just don't see them as trusting their scouts in Central Europe enough to draft the organization's first German since 2001 (the immortal Christoph Schubert), the year before Stutzle was born, when there is a comparable Swedish talent available in Raymond. Maybe the Senators will prove me wrong, time will tell, but right now I have the Devils coming away with a coup at #4 in Stutzle.
I will add that I do not think the Devils will wind up drafting as high as #4. I think the Devils have been, overall, a better team since dumping Hynes and I think they pass, at the very least, San Jose and Anaheim and wind up picking in the #6-#9 range.
The good news is that, as I stated on the day of the trade, Arizona was not even close to as good as their record and are a solid bet to potentially fall even further in the standings. They are as weak as any team in the NHL up the middle, they are a generally soft and easy to play team, and Darcy Kuemper is solid, but not the Vezina-quality netminder we saw during the opening months of this season. To me, it's conceivable that the Devils end up with two picks in the #6-#10 range, which would be terrific for the future of the organization.