Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft

[Guttersniped]

I do cut late stage Conte some slack because of financial issues and how little he had to work with in terms of early picks. The earlier 1st round picks under 20 before Zacha were Larson (4th in 2011), Parise (17th in 2003) and Ward (10th in 1996). I realize we were contenders but other top teams seemed to pull off an occasional trade for a spare 1st or traded up to grab someone special in an off year. It’s something Lou didn’t do for a couple of decades.

Without a doubt the Devils drafted badly for a long while, I remember a good article breaking down drafts had NJ or Vancouver as the team with the least drafting success 2000-2016. But context is important.

In 1999-2002 Conte had several extra 2nds and later picks but unfortunately those were some bad drafts. It sounds bad to have 4 2000 2nd round picks and only hit on Paul Martin until you look at the 2000 2nd round. Holy crap, it’s real slim pickings and Martin is arguably the best player in that round unless your a big Nick Shultz, Antione Vermette and/or Jarret Stoll fan.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It was good to see you stretch your legs beyond the prospects evaluation stuff. Zacha is very polarizing as you are well aware so it was funny to read your comment. As an aside, I'm firmly on the fence with him and would hope he develops enough offense and face-off prowess to take the place of Zajac as a top notch third line center. He has good defensive chops and the PK results speak for themselves. I'm skeptical he has it in him to be consistent enough to be a legit second liner, but I certainly would not want to trade him just to be rid of him as some advocate. Hope the hangover is mild. Lots of water and vitamins and an ibuprofen was about the best I could do back in the day.

What most people call "a hangover" I call "waking up that day", but thanks for the kind words of support.

 

[longislanddevil]

I did some additional research and below are a list of “hits” for Conte during his 30 year career with the Devils.

1989: Brendan Shanahan- 1st round, 2nd pick
1989: Bill Guerin- 1st round, 5th pick
1990: Martin Brodeur- 1st round, 20th pick
1991: Scott Niedermayer- 1st round, 3rd pick
1991: Brian Rolston- 1st round, 11th pick
1992: Sergei Brylin- 2nd round, 42nd pick
1994: Patrik Elias- 2nd round, 51st pick
1995: Petr Sykora- 1st round, 18th pick
1998: Scott Gomez- 1st round, 27th pick
1998: Brian Gionta- 3rd round, 82nd pick
2000: Paul Martin- 2nd round, 62nd pick
2003: Zach Parise- 1st round, 17th pick
2004: Travis Zajac- 1st round, 20th pick
2008: Adam Henrique- 3rd round, 82nd pick
2011: Blake Coleman- 3rd round, 75th pick
2012: Damon Severson- 2nd round, 60th pick

Of course Conte’s claim to fame will always be Brodeur. I’ll give credit where it’s due there. I would expect scouts to nail a top 3 or top 5 pick more often than not- Shanahan/Niedermayer/Guerin. But alas it still counts...so full credit there. Elias is obviously a home run with the 51st pick of round 2 in 1994.

From 2000 to 2015, Conte drafted *one* superstar in Zach Parise. Paul Martin, Travis Zajac, Adam Henrique, Blake Coleman and Damon Severson are the only other players drafted in this 15 year time frame that I’d consider “hits.” Admittedly, this is a tad better than I originally thought but still not good. There is a laundry list of strikeouts and 1st round picks that did not even become useful NHL players. The amount of busts selected over other players who became either all-stars or productive NHLers...quite frankly, it’s staggering. I’ll soften my stance a bit and not call his complete 30 year body of work “atrocious.” In retrospect, that’s too harsh considering he did draft Brodeur, Elias, Niedermayer and some solid complimentary players for our Stanley Cup teams. However, his record post 1995 and certainly his final 15 years...it is terrible and I would absolutely render it “atrocious.” I do not believe that’s even really debatable.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I did some additional research and below are a list of “hits” for Conte during his 30 year career with the Devils.

1989: Brendan Shanahan- 1st round, 2nd pick
1989: Bill Guerin- 1st round, 5th pick
1990: Martin Brodeur- 1st round, 20th pick
1991: Scott Niedermayer- 1st round, 3rd pick
1991: Brian Rolston- 1st round, 11th pick
1992: Sergei Brylin- 2nd round, 42nd pick
1994: Patrik Elias- 2nd round, 51st pick
1995: Petr Sykora- 1st round, 18th pick
1998: Scott Gomez- 1st round, 27th pick
1998: Brian Gionta- 3rd round, 82nd pick
2000: Paul Martin- 2nd round, 62nd pick
2003: Zach Parise- 1st round, 17th pick
2004: Travis Zajac- 1st round, 20th pick
2008: Adam Henrique- 3rd round, 82nd pick
2011: Blake Coleman- 3rd round, 75th pick
2012: Damon Severson- 2nd round, 60th pick

Of course Conte’s claim to fame will always be Brodeur. I’ll give credit where it’s due there. I would expect scouts to nail a top 3 or top 5 pick more often than not- Shanahan/Niedermayer/Guerin. But alas it still counts...so full credit there. Elias is obviously a home run with the 51st pick of round 2 in 1994.

From 2000 to 2015, Conte drafted *one* superstar in Zach Parise. Paul Martin, Travis Zajac, Adam Henrique, Blake Coleman and Damon Severson are the only other players drafted in this 15 year time frame that I’d consider “hits.” Admittedly, this is a tad better than I originally thought but still not good. There is a laundry list of strikeouts and 1st round picks that did not even become useful NHL players. The amount of busts selected over other players who became either all-stars or productive NHLers...quite frankly, it’s staggering. I’ll soften my stance a bit and not call his complete 30 year body of work “atrocious.” In retrospect, that’s too harsh considering he did draft Brodeur, Elias, Niedermayer and some solid complimentary players for our Stanley Cup teams. However, his record post 1995 and certainly his final 15 years...it is terrible and I would absolutely render it “atrocious.” I do not believe that’s even really debatable.

Yea I wouldn't say he was atrocious (although his last 10 yrs or so here with the team most definitely was). I'd say he was pretty average. If not for Brodeur...yea...not much.

It's also way too early to give judgement on Castron.

 

[Guttersniped]

I feel weird being the Conte apologist since I’m glad he’s gone after the string of dreary drafts in his last decade or so in NJ.

I don’t agree with your definition of hit at all. For example Conte did amazing in 1994 by grabbing Elias, Sullivan and Sourey. That’s easily the best haul that year other than maybe Ottawa with Alfredsson and Bonk.

After missing with Pederson, they picked up Pandolfo, Morrison and Oliwa in 1993. After missing with Lance Ward, the Devils hit with both Colin White and Willie Mitchell (in the 8th round!) in 1996. Conte did great in 1992 with Smith, Yelle, Brylin and Hulse even though most of those guys were traded. If getting those players seem unimpressive to you then you should look at each draft organized by games played and rethink it.

Even Mike Rupp is a hit. Rupper wasn’t a star but when you get the player with the 25th most played games overall in the 3rd round of a pretty bad draft you made a good pick. Hell, the 1999 draft is such a dumpster fire that Mike Commodore has the 25th most games played and is the 3rd best player in the 2nd round, so even he’s a good pick.

I get being unhappy about Peter Vrana, he’s far from the only bust in the 2003 2nd round but it still hurts when numerous good players including two future HoFers are taken later in the same round. In drafts context is everything, it’s why Hugh Jessiman will likely remain the worst pick I’ve ever witnessed.

There’s also always some luck involved. It sucks that we didn’t have extra early picks in the monster 2003 draft after having them in the previous 5 drafts. While I love Nico and have high hopes for Hughes there’s no way to argue that there haven’t been much stronger recent 1st overalls. Drafts are often cruel.

 

[njdevils309]

Conte's last 15 years were definitely atrocious, but I did hear something interesting that may have affected that. On the 31 Thoughts podcast, Elliot Friedman said Jersey was known to be one of the biggest spenders in terms of scouting/ draft prep up until like 2000, when the NHL put in more strict rules with the scouting process. He mentions a story where in the meeting about the rules, Lou asks what the penalty would have been if they didn't follow the rules, which the nhl made pretty significant to keep teams from breaking them. That's probably why they went from drafting pretty well prior to 2000, than failing so miserably after, they probably didn't adjust to the nhl evening the field.

 

[Guttersniped]

Conte's last 15 years were definitely atrocious, but I did hear something interesting that may have affected that. On the 31 Thoughts podcast, Elliot Friedman said Jersey was known to be one of the biggest spenders in terms of scouting/ draft prep up until like 2000, when the NHL put in more strict rules with the scouting process. He mentions a story where in the meeting about the rules, Lou asks what the penalty would have been if they didn't follow the rules, which the nhl made pretty significant to keep teams from breaking them. That's probably why they went from drafting pretty well prior to 2000, than failing so miserably after, they probably didn't adjust to the nhl evening the field.

Wow, I wonder what the rule changes were. There was definitely a drop off starting after 2000, I just assumed it was the overall improvement of other clubs’ scouting and the Devils infamous cash problems under Vanderbeek. Detroit also seemed to finally lose their often incredible edge in European scouting, I’m guessing the rule changes effected that as well. Very interesting.

 

[britdevil]

I'll never forgive Conte for drafting Tedenby over Carlson. Completely idiotic.

The stars aligned for us to draft him, at a time when our defence was crying out for depth (and hasn't recovered since imo…).

Pathetic.

 

[longislanddevil]

I feel weird being the Conte apologist since I’m glad he’s gone after the string of dreary drafts in his last decade or so in NJ.

I don’t agree with your definition of hit at all. For example Conte did amazing in 1994 by grabbing Elias, Sullivan and Sourey. That’s easily the best haul that year other than maybe Ottawa with Alfredsson and Bonk.

After missing with Pederson, they picked up Pandolfo, Morrison and Oliwa in 1993. After missing with Lance Ward, the Devils hit with both Colin White and Willie Mitchell (in the 8th round!) in 1996. Conte did great in 1992 with Smith, Yelle, Brylin and Hulse even though most of those guys were traded. If getting those players seem unimpressive to you then you should look at each draft organized by games played and rethink it.

Even Mike Rupp is a hit. Rupper wasn’t a star but when you get the player with the 25th most played games overall in the 3rd round of a pretty bad draft you made a good pick. Hell, the 1999 draft is such a dumpster fire that Mike Commodore has the 25th most games played and is the 3rd best player in the 2nd round, so even he’s a good pick.

I get being unhappy about Peter Vrana, he’s far from the only bust in the 2003 2nd round but it still hurts when numerous good players including two future HoFers are taken later in the same round. In drafts context is everything, it’s why Hugh Jessiman will likely remain the worst pick I’ve ever witnessed.

There’s also always some luck involved. It sucks that we didn’t have extra early picks in the monster 2003 draft after having them in the previous 5 drafts. While I love Nico and have high hopes for Hughes there’s no way to argue that there haven’t been much stronger recent 1st overalls. Drafts are often cruel.

Appreciate your thoughts and opinions even if we don’t agree.

I would add Souray and Colin White to my list of “hits.” Jay Pando as well...he was certainly a useful and contributing NHL depth forward with tremendous defensive acumen. He deserves to be there.

What I have discovered in this exercise is that Conte’s career with the Devils is very “bi-polar.” I still find the last 15 years of his tenure to be inexplicable.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think everyone agrees that the Devils had mostly brutal drafts under Conte after 2000. If he f***ed up our 2003 first rounder I would have lost my mind at the time and lived in rage for all eternity. Hell, to this day the Ranger’s picking Hugh Jessiman is one of my favorite hockey memories, it’s forever a wonderful delight. They took a mediocre AHLer when there’s a dozen stars and multiple future Hall of Famers taken later that round. It’s still hilarious, I’m really petty though.

 

[Goptor]

If you go over all the draft picks made post 2004, Conte would end up somewhere around the middle. People look at the one guy that hits and tend to forget that there are 20 players that fail scattered around that one hit. The Devils just had very little to work with in that time frame.

Tedenby is a good example. He's widely considered a draft failure here but he would be the fourth best player out of the final 10 picks that round

 

[Nocashstyle]

Yeah, Conte doesn’t get a free pass from me for his later years. Pretty inexcusable tbh.

 

[Triumph]

I'm not a big Conte fan either, but I think you are kinda off on what you think his tenure in Jersey was. I just did a quick search, and he was with the Devils from 1984, became Director of Scouting in '85. He did draft a lot of the core of the Stanley Cup teams. I do agree his last like 10 years were pretty bad, but to say he was atrocious at his job is a bit much, prolly just got too old and lost his touch.

What source do you have for that? I thought Marshall Johnston was the director of scouting for the Devils in the early days of Lou's tenure and that Conte took over in the early 90s, but I couldn't find that information online.

 

[Guttersniped]

What source do you have for that? I thought Marshall Johnston was the director of scouting for the Devils in the early days of Lou's tenure and that Conte took over in the early 90s, but I couldn't find that information online.

There’s this:
Elite Prospects - David Conte Team Staff Profile

 

[Triumph]

If you go over all the draft picks made post 2004, Conte would end up somewhere around the middle. People look at the one guy that hits and tend to forget that there are 20 players that fail scattered around that one hit. The Devils just had very little to work with in that time frame.

Tedenby is a good example. He's widely considered a draft failure here but he would be the fourth best player out of the final 10 picks that round

No, he wouldn't. Again, I don't want to turn this into a Conte thread, but it seems I've done so - yes, most picks late in the 1st miss, and an even greater percentage than that miss after the 1st - Conte's record post-2004 in light of that is still quite poor. In 11 drafts after, he never found a first-pairing D, starting goalie, or first-line forward.

 

[Triumph]

There’s this:
Elite Prospects - David Conte Team Staff Profile

Okay so yeah - he was assistant director until 94, when Marshall Johnston left to GM the Senators and he took over.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Drafts can be a crap-shoot but that 2014 draft is just kind of unacceptable. Zero NHL players and it wasn't really close either.

 

[Guttersniped]

I feel like we’re going a circles a bit over Conte because he’s worthy of both praise and criticism. I don’t think you can be genuinely wrong about Conte unless you claim he was never very good at his job. Even if you aren’t a big Castron fan I can’t imagine anyone wishes Conte was still running things in NJ.

The Devils were seen as having great scouting in the late 80s and 90s. We drafted everything from Hall of Famers to great role players, enough that we traded some excellent prospects. It undeniably got ugly in in the 2000s.

Analyzing 16 years of NHL draft data to see which teams have done it the best (and worst)
Analyzing 16 years of NHL draft data to see which teams have...

In the late years Lou gave Conte way too little to work with draft picks wise but not getting much of anything with our 1sts since Zajac other than Larson helped kill this team.

While it’s hard to piss on his 2008 picks too much because Henrique is a fantastic 3rd round find, it’s a deep draft and there are a number of good players available available during our first three picks.

I apologize for blathering on but our drafts are kind of fascinating when you look at them in context on Hockeydb. For instance, our 2002 picks look like a clown show, especially since Duncan Keith was selected after Barry Talleckson. It’s a very thin draft though, only 35.7% played in the NHL, that’s noticeably less than the usual 40-45% in that time period.

New Jersey Devils Draft History at hockeydb.com

 

[Guttersniped]

Okay so yeah - he was assistant director until 94, when Marshall Johnston left to GM the Senators and he took over.

I readily admit I don’t know about Johnston. Elite Prospects list him here as Director of Player Personnel. I assume there’s some overlap with scouting.

I’m pretty ignorant about the pecking order in NHL organizations, so I don’t know if that makes Johnston Conte’s boss or if they would be equals.
Marshall Johnston at eliteprospects.com

 

[Bleedred]

If you go over all the draft picks made post 2004, Conte would end up somewhere around the middle. People look at the one guy that hits and tend to forget that there are 20 players that fail scattered around that one hit. The Devils just had very little to work with in that time frame.

Tedenby is a good example. He's widely considered a draft failure here but he would be the fourth best player out of the final 10 picks that round

The 09 draft and the Josefson pick was even worse than the Tedenby pick. Even though Josefson was a better player than Tedenby.

For a couple years there, it seemed like we were righting a couple of the wrongs of that pick by acquiring players who were picked just after Josefson in that first round.

John Moore, Marcus Johansson and Kyle Palmieri were all picked just after Josefson in that same round. All of them were better than Josefson and we wound up having all of them at one point. I always thought that was pretty hilarious. John Carlson was the big miss picked after Tedenby that often gets talked about but only him and Tyler Ennis became anything for those picked after Tedenby in that first round.

 

[aboriginal]

cant wait to get this years zacha with a top 10 pick. yay!

 

[billingtons ghost]

Appreciate your thoughts and opinions even if we don’t agree.

I would add Souray and Colin White to my list of “hits.” Jay Pando as well...he was certainly a useful and contributing NHL depth forward

No Steve Sullivan? Chris Mason? Derek engellund? Maybe not stars but certainly late round goodness

 

[StevenToddIves]

With Winnipeg defeating Ottawa this afternoon, a victory by either Nashville or Calgary tonight knocks Arizona out of a playoff spot. The possibility is becoming very real that the Devils could have two top 12 picks in the 2020 draft.

 

[billingtons ghost]

The 09 draft and the Josefson pick was even worse than the Tedenby pick. Even though Josefson was a better player than Tedenby.

For a couple years there, it seemed like we were righting a couple of the wrongs of that pick by acquiring players who were picked just after Josefson in that first round.

John Moore, Marcus Johansson and Kyle Palmieri were all picked just after Josefson in that same round. All of them were better than Josefson and we wound up having all of them at one point. I always thought that was pretty hilarious. John Carlson was the big miss picked after Tedenby that often gets talked about but only him and Tyler Ennis became anything for those picked after Tedenby in that first round.

I don't like the jj pick either, but hard to call it worse than tedenby.. there are like 6 complete washouts ahead of us and maybe 10 useful players in the whole 2nd round.. outside of the guys you mentioned.. and Moore/Johansson aren't exactly shining examples of 'hits'... That's an ugly draft.

 

[Triumph]

The 09 draft and the Josefson pick was even worse than the Tedenby pick. Even though Josefson was a better player than Tedenby.

For a couple years there, it seemed like we were righting a couple of the wrongs of that pick by acquiring players who were picked just after Josefson in that first round.

John Moore, Marcus Johansson and Kyle Palmieri were all picked just after Josefson in that same round. All of them were better than Josefson and we wound up having all of them at one point. I always thought that was pretty hilarious. John Carlson was the big miss picked after Tedenby that often gets talked about but only him and Tyler Ennis became anything for those picked after Tedenby in that first round.

Josefson's a fine pick. Have absolutely no problem with that selection. Josefson had NHL skill in almost all respects except for goal scoring - he just could not score goals in the top league, but he's been fine in the AHL and SEL. He also suffered a significant injury in each of his first 3 seasons in the NHL and could never get going. We'll never know what player he would've been had those injuries not happened.