Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft

[TBF1972]

I ranked the teams by point percentage and then multiplied by 55 (The average number of games played so far). Then I reversed the ranking so the worst team in the league is ranked "1" signifying the top pick in the draft before the lottery. I started the list at Vancouver, who is the top team in the Pacific right now.

Here's what the list looks like. Arizona 10th, the Rangers and Montreal are just 1 point behind, they could easily pass them. Buffalo is only 3 points behind, San Jose at 7 points is a bit of a stretch. I agree that 7th is the best that pick could realistically be. But even 8 or 9 would be absolutely amazing.

Draft Position	Team	Points at 55 games
19	Vancouver	65
18	Toronto	65
17	Edmonton	63
16	Vegas	62
15	Nashville	61
14	Calgary	60
13	Winnipeg	60
12	Minnesota	59
11	Chicago	59
10	Arizona	59
9	NY Rangers	58
8	Montréal	58
7	Buffalo	56
6	San Jose	52
5	Anaheim	51
4	New Jersey	51
3	Ottawa	47
2	Los Angeles	42
1	Detroit	29

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Looking at the list he likelihood of the Arizona pick being worse than 10th seems bigger than otherwise. San Jose is the only team behind them, who has zero benefit of being worse. On the 'positive' side the PO race in the West is so tight, that hopefully none of this teams throws the towel early to improve the draft position.

 

[Triumph]

The one thing missing in the Conte discussion is the impact or lack of development. Picking the right players doesn't help at all, if those players weren't properly developed. While Conte definitely made a few questionable picks, it also looks like the player didn't improve a whole lot in the Minor leagues.
Having draft picks cracking the NHL and getting useful players has a lot more to do with proper development, than identifying the most talented players.

I'm not a huge believer in development per se - I think there's development at the NHL level which the Devils have been bad at the last few years, where it seems like players like Bratt and Zacha are not reaching their potential. But minor league development? Nah. Not really a thing - there's not really any teams out there that consistently grow and graduate players out of their AHL club; what ends up happening when a franchise is managing to do that is that their NHL roster is overfull so players who would play in the NHL on other teams instead spend too much time in the AHL.

 

[TBF1972]

I'm not a huge believer in development per se - I think there's development at the NHL level which the Devils have been bad at the last few years, where it seems like players like Bratt and Zacha are not reaching their potential. But minor league development? Nah. Not really a thing - there's not really any teams out there that consistently grow and graduate players out of their AHL club; what ends up happening when a franchise is managing to do that is that their NHL roster is overfull so players who would play in the NHL on other teams instead spend too much time in the AHL.

Carolina Hurricanes comes to mind.

 

[Guttersniped]

Bratt is playing much better after a really atrocious start, he seems to have really turned it around. He’s even improves defensively, I think in part because the relative discipline of the top line.

I really bothers me that outside of the Nico and Zajac lines the forwards have stopped playing any defense. Wood has really been let loose to run around like a lunatic. It seems like they are just trying to get Hughes going offensively and are going to leave the actual coaching to his future HC.

Zacha is actually the most concerning. I get that they are forced to use him as a winger at times but I don’t even know what the team plans to do with him in the future.

If they see him as our future third line center it would have been nice to see him pushed to become a much better defensive center at 5v5. He’s going to be 24 soon. He’s clearly never going to produce much more offensively but they never seem to push him to excel defensively either. He’s turning into a spare forward who’s only noticeably good at PK. He’s even sucked at face offs this year. Zacha’s development has always seem pretty directionless but they seem to have really lost the plot now. I guess it’s another setback of a lost season.

 

[Smitty426]

That would indeed be hilarious.

I'm going to write a lot about Jack Quinn, simply because I find it a near-certainty that he is on the Devils draft radar. The Devils have tremendous depth at RW in the system, but most of their prospects project to middle-6 or bottom-6 roles (the wild cards are Thompson, who took an incredible leap in development this year, and Graeme Clarke -- who is an incredible scorer but needs a ton of development before we have more certainty).

There is a lot to like about Jack Quinn, and really no red flags. But while all of his tools (vision, compete, size, two-way play, hockey IQ) check off as "good but not great" -- his one amazing tool jumps off the page. Simply put, he is an incredible shooter, a deadly sniper who knows how and where and when to find space and can laser a puck through the smallest of openings with a quick release. You simply can't teach that, and right now I would say the only superior shooters in this draft class are surefire top 7 picks Lafreniere, Byfield and Holtz.

I'm still a long way from posting a prospect ranking (I don't like to be held accountable until I've done my homework), but I'd say Quinn is certainly top 15. Right now, I'd say:

1 Lafreniere
2 Byfield
3 Stutzle
4 Drysdale
5 Rossi
6 Raymond
7 Askarov
8 Holtz
9 Perfetti
10 Zary
11 Mukhamadullin
12 Lundell
13 Schneider
14 Quinn
15 Bourque or Mysak, I can't decide

Steven, does a guy like Drysdale make the team out of camp next year?

 

[Guttersniped]

Here’s a list of defenseman who went straight into the NHL after their draft and those who played in the NHL a year after. I probably missed someone though.

After their draft:
2018: Rasmus Dahlin (1)
2016: Jacob Chychrun (16)
2015: Noah Hanifin (5)
2014: Aaron Ekblad (1)
2013: Seth Jones (4)
2011: Adam Larsson (4)

D+1:
2018: Quinn Hughes (7), Adam Boqvist (8), Noah Dobson (12), Rasmus Sandin (29)
2017: Miro Heiskanen (3)
2016: Mikhail Sergachev (9), Charlie McAvoy (14)
2015: Ivan Provorov (7), Zach Werenski (8)
2013: Rasmus Ristolainen (8)
2012: Morgan Reilly (5), Hampus Lindholm (6), Jacob Truba (9), Cody Ceci (15), Olli Maatta (22)
2011: Dougie Hamilton (9), Jonas Brodin (10)
2010: Erik Gudbranson (3), Cam Fowler (12)

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Steven, does a guy like Drysdale make the team out of camp next year?

Drysdale is a little puppy, with elite talent. There’s no rush and I don’t see the upside of us rushing a player who still has 2 more years of eligibility in the CHL after this one.

He played for team Canada in the WJC as a 17 year old, which is pretty rare considering Canada could possibly ice 3 teams and all 3 could challenge for the gold.

We’re in a prime spot to pick Drysdale and the last thing we need is to rush a kid that isn’t ready.

 

[MartyOwns]

Drysdale is a little puppy, with elite talent. There’s no rush and I don’t see the upside of us rushing a player who still has 2 more years of eligibility in the CHL after this one.

He played for team Canada in the WJC as a 17 year old, which is pretty rare considering Canada could possibly ice 3 teams and all 3 could challenge for the gold.

We’re in a prime spot to pick Drysdale and the last thing we need is to rush a kid that isn’t ready.

agreed. hopefully smith comes in next year, drysdale (if we're lucky enough to pick him) comes in the year after, and bahl/walsh/misyul etc come in the year after that. gee now that i say it out loud, it's almost like shero had a plan

edit- mccarthy is in the last group as well.

 

[Call Me Al]

i’m hoping bahl is ready the year after next, walsh too

 

[MartyOwns]

i’m hoping bahl is ready the year after next, walsh too

yeah i'm hoping they're all ready 5 minutes from now, but i'd rather be realistic and allow them the time to develop properly. there is literally no reason to rush.

most of the hot takes on this board (not from you, just saying in general...especially from fishermen) all stem from the same thing- impatience. and i get it- ...we're bad, so the impatience just gets worse and worse, like a self fulfilling prophecy. it's like being dehydrated on a life raft in the middle of the ocean, so you start drinking salt water. but its only going to exacerbate the problem.

tread water for a couple of seasons, allow our multitude of prospects to develop, and sprinkle in some UFA's/trade pieces to fill in the cracks. it's not the sexiest plan, but if we do it right we're talking about a decade+ of consistent playoff berths down the line.

 

[TBF1972]

agreed. hopefully smith comes in next year, drysdale (if we're lucky enough to pick him) comes in the year after, and bahl/walsh/misyul etc come in the year after that. gee now that i say it out loud, it's almost like shero had a plan

edit- mccarthy is in the last group as well.

I am not sure, it is so smart to play with 4 D pairs.

Shero had a plan to build through the draft. Unfortunately his early drafts didn't have enough focus on D prospects, which tend to take longer to develop and he traded away Rykov, Santini and Davies to thin out the prospect pipeline even more.

 

[Call Me Al]

i don’t think it’s a hot take to say bahl will be ready in his +3 season. walsh is less realistic but he’s already played 3 years of college now. one year in the A might be enough for him

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

I am not sure, it is so smart to play with 4 D pairs.

Shero had a plan to build through the draft. Unfortunately his early drafts didn't have enough focus on D prospects, which tend to take longer to develop and he traded away Rykov, Santini and Davies to thin out the prospect pipeline even more.

Santini is not a prospect. Davies and Rykov are fine but dont change the pipeline much.

 

[MartyOwns]

I am not sure, it is so smart to play with 4 D pairs.

Shero had a plan to build through the draft. Unfortunately his early drafts didn't have enough focus on D prospects, which tend to take longer to develop and he traded away Rykov, Santini and Davies to thin out the prospect pipeline even more.

without getting into this again, clearly the plan was to replenish the forwards, then replenish the defensemen. safe to assume the final part of the plan was to get competent goaltending.

there was no good reason to assume rykov would ever play a game for us, santini sucks and davies is a huge question mark. i'm not losing any sleep over them

 

[TBF1972]

without getting into this again, clearly the plan was to replenish the forwards, then replenish the defensemen. safe to assume the final part of the plan was to get competent goaltending.

there was no good reason to assume rykov would ever play a game for us, santini sucks and davies is a huge question mark. i'm not losing any sleep over them

i am not into the specific players (rykov, santini or davies). i am talking about the approach you stated: 1st forwards, 2nd defenders, 3rd goalies. knowing the average age players break into the nhl per position i would reverse that order. shero had an established goalie (schneider) signed to a long term deal and still spent a 2nd on mbw, which was a smart move. but after that 15, 16 and 17 drafts clearly focused on offense and the lack of high end d prospects clearly shows now, as there are no d's in the ahl pressing for nhl time. the prospect pool is still 2-3 years away from actually contributing and the stop gaps (muller, butcher, vatanen, carrick, subban) haven't worked out.

 

[MartyOwns]

i am not into the specific players (rykov, santini or davies). i am talking about the approach you stated: 1st forwards, 2nd defenders, 3rd goalies. knowing the average age players break into the nhl per position i would reverse that order. shero had an established goalie (schneider) signed to a long term deal and still spent a 2nd on mbw, which was a smart move. but after that 15, 16 and 17 drafts clearly focused on offense and the lack of high end d prospects clearly shows now, as there are no d's in the ahl pressing for nhl time. the prospect pool is still 2-3 years away from actually contributing and the stop gaps (muller, butcher, vatanen, carrick, subban) haven't worked out.

yeah so criticism of sheros' plan is fair. this is just speculation, but i don't think he wanted to build our defensive corps strictly through the draft. i think he wants to sprinkle in vets there to offset the rookies, a la pk subban. drafting defensemen is a lot harder than drafting forwards, IMO. same with goalies. i would also disagree that subban, vatanen, and butcher haven't 'worked out'.

the timeline that you mentioned kind of sucks, meaning it sucks to wait. but he wasn't taking the lou approach- get us a bunch of vets on the verge of breaking down, barely qualifying for the playoffs and getting bounced early. shero was playing the long game- building us for long term, sustained success. now the question is- will we follow the trajectory shero set us on?

 

[MNDevilsfan]

Sign me up for Drysdale if he has the potential to be a game breaker...this system badly needs a D prospect with legitimate top 2 upside.

 

[Devils731]

Sign me up for Drysdale if he has the potential to be a game breaker...this system badly needs a D prospect with legitimate top 2 upside.

Ty Smith has that upside.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Steven, does a guy like Drysdale make the team out of camp next year?

No, I don't think there's much chance of that. Drysdale would benefit from another year in the CHL to build up his core strength and hone his game. It's also fair to expect that he will be a top pairing D for Canada in next year's WJC, which would also benefit his development.

As far as the Devils young D prospects, I think Ty Smith is the only one who will be ready to crack the Devils roster out of camp next year. The Devils are going to need to find another D or two through trades or free agency.

 

[Smitty426]

No, I don't think there's much chance of that. Drysdale would benefit from another year in the CHL to build up his core strength and hone his game. It's also fair to expect that he will be a top pairing D for Canada in next year's WJC, which would also benefit his development.

As far as the Devils young D prospects, I think Ty Smith is the only one who will be ready to crack the Devils roster out of camp next year. The Devils are going to need to find another D or two through trades or free agency.

Got it

Does a guy like
Zadorov (Avs)/Butcher/Smith
What might be a decent left side?

PK/Sevs/trade for rhd sound right?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Got it

Does a guy like
Zadorov (Avs)/Butcher/Smith
What might be a decent left side?

PK/Sevs/trade for rhd sound right?

Zadorov is precisely the physical, stay-at-home D prospect Subban and the Devils need. I think that's a great idea, but are the Avs open to trading him? I would rather sign Greene for one more year and trade Butcher. I think Butcher's defensive play is unfixable and his lack of speed glaring, but a team might be willing to send us a 2nd+3rd for him due to his 40+ point capability. Also two guys who would be perfect fits will be available as UFAs in Brendan Dillon and Joel Edmundson. On RD I'd like to pick up a defensive-minded veteran to pair with Smith on a short-term deal. Ron Hainsey for one season? How about this for 2020-21:

Edmundson-Subban
Dillon-Severson
Smith/Greene-Hainsey/Carrick

Which would then turn into this for 2021-22:

Edmundson-Subban
Smith-Severson
Dillon-Walsh

 

[Smitty426]

Zadorov is precisely the physical, stay-at-home D prospect Subban and the Devils need. I think that's a great idea, but are the Avs open to trading him? I would rather sign Greene for one more year and trade Butcher. I think Butcher's defensive play is unfixable and his lack of speed glaring, but a team might be willing to send us a 2nd+3rd for him due to his 40+ point capability. Also two guys who would be perfect fits will be available as UFAs in Brendan Dillon and Joel Edmundson. On RD I'd like to pick up a defensive-minded veteran to pair with Smith on a short-term deal. Ron Hainsey for one season? How about this for 2020-21:

Edmundson-Subban
Dillon-Severson
Smith/Greene-Hainsey/Carrick

Which would then turn into this for 2021-22:

Edmundson-Subban
Smith-Severson
Dillon-Walsh

On other forums him seems to be available. May have to be a summer move as they seem poised to go deep this yr. But most fans of there's seem to have him as the odd man out with the pipeline. The opposite side says make him available to Seattle. My thought would be, keep pk and make him the bait for Seattle. Thoughts?

 

[Brodeur]

I could see Colorado moving Zadorov if they aren't prepared to pay him and to open up a spot for Bowen Byram (and/or Conor Timmins). Ryan Graves kinda came out of nowhere this year, so he's looking for a decent pay raise this summer as well.

 

[StevenToddIves]

On other forums him seems to be available. May have to be a summer move as they seem poised to go deep this yr. But most fans of there's seem to have him as the odd man out with the pipeline. The opposite side says make him available to Seattle. My thought would be, keep pk and make him the bait for Seattle. Thoughts?

Again, some shrewd thinking on your part. Seattle will start with a salary cap of $0 and Subban is probably as good of a guy as you can find to market an expansion team around. He's just so charismatic.

And if Zadorov were made available, the Devils would be foolhardy not to kick the tires on him. His physicality and defensive acumen would be a tremendous improvement over defensively porous, easy-to-play guys like Butcher and Mueller.

 

[Smitty426]

Again, some shrewd thinking on your part. Seattle will start with a salary cap of $0 and Subban is probably as good of a guy as you can find to market an expansion team around. He's just so charismatic.

And if Zadorov were made available, the Devils would be foolhardy not to kick the tires on him. His physicality and defensive acumen would be a tremendous improvement over defensively porous, easy-to-play guys like Butcher and Mueller.

Did Risto ever play with Zads when he was in Buf?
He too seems to be available.
Those two
Sevs/Smitty/Butch
Etc
Seems like the two big guys are hitting their prime and a huge need for our back end