It's nothing he's done or not done, I just prefer the forwards ahead of him. I think given their production they are safer bets to be impact forwards and as such they're ahead of him. The rankings in the 3rd tier are all relatively close so I have no problem with him being ranked 6th. I also generally prefer F > D as well, especially at the top of draft.
It's a new month which means it's time for a new ranking. I've decided to go to a top 62, I think last time it was only a top 31, as there has finally been some separation and I feel like too many good players would have been left off a top 31 list. I decided to do the ranking based on tiers where any player in the tier I would considered to be "equals". Also, the first 9 players are how I would rank the top 9 of the draft and I currently don't have a top 10. As always this list is based off of almost entirely their stats and the compared to the historical data from each league, all info was from pick224.
Tier 1
Player
1
Alexis Lafreniere
W
Tier 2
2
Quinton Byfield
C
3
Marco Rossi
C
4
Tim Stutzle
C
5
Lucas Raymond
W
Tier 3
6
Cole Perfetti
W
7
Anton Lundell
C
8
Jamie Drysdale
D
9
Alexander Holtz
W
Tier 4
4
Seth Jarvis
F
4
Yarslav Askarov
G
4
Mavrik Bourque
C
4
Connor Zary
C
4
Jan Mysak
W
4
Jeremie Poirier
D
4
Zion Nyback
W
4
Noel Gunler
W
4
Tyson Foerster
C
4
Jacob Perreault
C
4
Lukas Cormier
D
4
Rodion Amirov
F
Tier 5
5
Veeti Miettinen
F
5
Ryan O'Rourke
D
5
Jake Sanderson
D
5
Ryan Francis
W
5
Dawson Mercer
W
5
Lukas Reichel
W
5
Jack Quinn
W
5
Emil Andrae
D
5
Roni Hirvonen
F
5
Carter Savoie
W
5
Martin Chromiak
F
5
Dylan Holloway
W
Tier 6
6
Alexander Pashin
W
6
Brett Berard
W
6
Joel Blmoqvist
G
6
Luke Evangelista
F
6
Hendrix Lapierre
F
6
Alex Cotton
D
6
Sean Farrell
F
6
Sam Colangelo
F
6
William Villeneuve
D
6
Emil Heineman
F
6
Connor McClennon
F
Tier 7
7
Jacob Dion
D
7
Michael Benning
D
7
Marat Khusnutdinov
F
7
John-Jason Peterka
F
7
William Wallinder
D
7
Kaiden Guhle
D
7
Tyler Tullio
F
7
Xavier Simoneau
F
7
Kasper Simontaival
F
7
Ridly Greig
F
7
Ozzy Wiesblatt
F
7
Jake Neighbours
F
7
Roby Jarventie
F
7
Anton Johannesson
D
7
Oskar Magnusson
F
7
Thomas Bordeleau
F
7
Justin Sourdif
F
7
Daniil Gushchin
F
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And just some observations from my list:
I think this draft is pretty deep compared to the average draft. There were a number of players I left out of my top 62 that would have likely been there in 2018 or 2019. I think players like Pavel Novak, Braden Schneider, Thomas Niederbach, Dmitri Ovchinnikov, Jean-Luc Foudy, Jaromir Pytlick, Jack Finley, Juuso Maenpaa, Tomi Niku, etc. could have been in the tier 6/7s in those drafts.
I'm not a fan of Heldge Grans whatsoever and that may be my biggest contrarian opinion. His point totals are severely inflated from PP production and he has an extremely difficult time defending at ES. Given where he's ranked on most lists I wouldn't touch him. He's someone that would be a 5th round pick or later for me.
The biggest riser was Seth Jarvis who had an incredible January. He's now playing at a level that's comparable to that of most top 5/10 picks from the WHL. The second biggest was Chromiak who I had in the 100-228 range. His play in the OHL has been outstanding and given his strong D-1 season has made me a fan once again.
This draft is full of extremely talented, but small players. Most of the defenceman in my top 62 are under 6'1 and the same can be said for a lot of the forwards. I don't expect someone like Jacob Dion or Anton Johannesson to go in the top 62 so there should be some excellent opportunity for value in the later rounds (I think of the Spence, Nousiainen, and Fensore last year as examples)
This draft also has a number of very good undrafted d+1, d+2, and d+3 players. Cotton, Oksentyuk, Constantinou, McCourt, Ty and Dylan Jackson, Stepanov, Gogolev, Marushev, and others all have the production to warrant being picked.
For the most part yes. But there's exceptions made for players playing in pro leagues. I would say it's around 90-95% based on a players production in their draft year and their d-1 seasons. I would say that this is my subjective top 62 ranking which is mostly stats/production based.
One example is that of Raymond. He's obviously a top 5 talent in the draft, but isn't being given the minutes to produce. While his SHL stats this year are good for an U18 player they're not really top 5 level. If it was purely stats based he would likely be in the late 20s or even lower.
For the most part yes. But there's exceptions made for players playing in pro leagues. I would say it's around 90-95% based on a players production in their draft year and their d-1 seasons. I would say that this is my subjective top 62 ranking which is mostly stats/production based.
One example is that of Raymond. He's obviously a top 5 talent in the draft, but isn't being given the minutes to produce. While his SHL stats this year are good for an U18 player they're not really top 5 level. If it was purely stats based he would likely be in the late 20s or even lower.
When I looked at his adjusted production rates he was in a similar range to that of Ryan Francis. I can't remember the exact number I just recall the 2 players were within the margin of error region for the adjusted p/gp. Given that I felt that Francis didn't belong in the 5th tier I made a similar judgement on Mercer. I'm not really deadset on any players in any one tier and I think you can make a strong argument that based on Mercer's D-1 production he belongs in that 4th tier. I do still have some concerns about his ES production, but it has rebounded since Decemeber so that concern is less present than it was in early January.
Personally, when I look at the 4th tier I feel like I'd prefer everyone in that tier over Mercer. That doesn't mean he's not a good player or unworthy of being in that tier I just preferred others over him when I did the rankings.
When I looked at his adjusted production rates he was in a similar range to that of Ryan Francis. I can't remember the exact number I just recall the 2 players were within the margin of error region for the adjusted p/gp. Given that I felt that Francis didn't belong in the 5th tier I made a similar judgement on Mercer. I'm not really deadset on any players in any one tier and I think you can make a strong argument that based on Mercer's D-1 production he belongs in that 4th tier. I do still have some concerns about his ES production, but it has rebounded since Decemeber so that concern is less present than it was in early January.
Personally, when I look at the 4th tier I feel like I'd prefer everyone in that tier over Mercer. That doesn't mean he's not a good player or unworthy of being in that tier I just preferred others over him when I did the rankings.
I did look everything over again because Mercer does have a much higher point per game than Francis and I wanted to make sure there wasn't a mistake in the calculations. It seems like the big reason he's not looking better in my adjustments is because he seems to score a lot of short handed points which I treat at a heavily discounted value given that there's almost no repeatability/predectiveness with them. For example Mercer has 45 ES+PP points in 33 games and Francis has 59 ES+PP points in 46 games. This gives them a point over game within 0.10 of each other.
As for Holloway and Mercer I understand that sentiment. I don't really have an issue with Mercer and while I don't think Holloway is as good of a prospect as some rankings may suggest there is upside there given his D-1 season. If we could find out what his on-ice sh% was as well as his teammates, with their GF/GA at each game state, we could see if he's still driving play and getting unlucky or if there is potentially an underlying issue.
drysdale isn’t a 4th forward type. He’s definitely a threat offensively and I would call him an offensive D-man but he’s more of a traditional offensive guy than Hughes. Meaning his offense generally come from the point rather than deep in the ozone.
There are games in Europe now u18 and u19 unfortunately can't find any streams. There are # u17 and woman, but I careless about those. Wonder where is Yzerman now , and what is his visions
i personally like drysdale more than I liked quinn pre draft. (I was a Dobson guy though so maybe I’m the wrong guy to ask lol) I think drysdale will be better defensively while still putting up solid point totals. I also prefer his shot.
1. Lafreniere
2. Stutzle
3. Byfield
4. Raymond
5. Perfetti/drysdale/holtz/Rossi (a lot of options here including drysdale.)
So I’d be happy with him at 5. Wouldn’t cry at 4 over Raymond. I like Raymond, he could even be special. He looks great when I’ve watched him. But the lack of actual production (even in the shl against men with limited ice time) Turns me off just enough to be cool with drysdale there.
i personally like drysdale more than I liked quinn pre draft. (I was a Dobson guy though so maybe I’m the wrong guy to ask lol) I think drysdale will be better defensively while still putting up solid point totals. I also prefer his shot.
1. Lafreniere
2. Stutzle
3. Byfield
4. Raymond
5. Perfetti/drysdale/holtz/Rossi (a lot of options here including drysdale.)
So I’d be happy with him at 5. Wouldn’t cry at 4 over Raymond. I like Raymond, he could even be special. He looks great when I’ve watched him. But the lack of actual production (even in the shl against men with limited ice time) Turns me off just enough to be cool with drysdale there.
There’s so much talent in the OHL in this draft, it’s insane. I know before with Wright/Holland our scouting staff was Western Canada based... is it now more Northeast based with Yzerman/Draper running things?
I am thinking we must be doing a lot of work scouting the OHL with the amount of talent coming through this year.
Can't speak for Europe or the W/Q, but the OHL is stacked this year. So much talent. Guys who would be 1st rounders in other years will be available in 2nd this year Couple of them are late-blooming sleepers that are exceptional.
Good year to have an early 2nd round pick in addition to a 1st round lottery pick!!
my draft scenario is we keep our 1st and 2nd . trade athanasou for a late 1st . then trade our 3rd + caps 2nd + sjs 3rd for a late 1st . then trade our 5th + 6th + 7th + glenny for a 2nd :
- our early 1st
- two late 1st
- our early 2nd
- the glenny trade late 2nd
my draft scenario is we keep our 1st and 2nd . trade athanasou for a late 1st . then trade our 3rd + caps 2nd + sjs 3rd for a late 1st . then trade our 5th + 6th + 7th + glenny for a 2nd :
- our early 1st
- two late 1st
- our early 2nd
- the glenny trade late 2nd
Finnish prospect, good size, plays in their 2nd tier mens league (Mestis) and scored 29 points in 28 games as of now...why is he ranked so low? Could some Finnish posters chime in?
I still like Jacob Perreault more than most or basically everyone. Remind me of Matt Hoffman , defensively chanllenged maybe and might move to RW but I think he can be a real goal scoring/power play threat to any team that drafts him. Great shot, good in the slot, but to be fair I've seen a lot of OHL/QMJHL games and have kept up on local/north american guys more than over seas fellas. I'm not really getting a whole look at the prospects pool so my opinion is literally under a microscope of a few players.(Literally maybe max 2 dozen. lol)
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