Prospect Info: 2020 NHL draft.

[Frk It]

I'd have to disagree. Look at what Kakko did in the Liiga in his draft year and look at what Hughes did in the USHL. Can you really say that what Kakko or Hughes did is more impressive than Rossi is doing right now?

Absolutely, yes. Look at what they did in international tournaments. Then factor in that Hughes is a significantly better skater and Kakko is way bigger. Then factor in that Rossi is a year older and the OHL scoring is inflated big time this year.

It’s not even close.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Absolutely, yes. Look at what they did in international tournaments. Then factor in that Hughes is a significantly better skater and Kakko is way bigger. Then factor in that Rossi is a year older and the OHL scoring is inflated big time this year.

It’s not even close.

To be honest I wouldn't even consider International Tournaments as anything more than entertainment value given the talent disparity than arises between some of the teams. They're great for looking at the tools a prospect may have, but offer little value in terms of player predictiveness. I'm open to the idea that Hughes would go ahead of Rossi, but I really don't think he would go ahead of Lafreniere or Byfield and I have a hard time putting Kakko over any of them.

Even when you adjust for the inflated scoring rate in the OHL and Rossi's late birthday he is still having the best draft eligible season since McDavid; the same is true for Byfield, though when I last looked he was behind Marner in adjusted scoring. You also have to account for a similarly inflated scoring in the Liiga as the league is not nearly as good as it once was with Jokerit having left and moved to the KHL and there is also now an extra team in the league.

 

[Frk It]

To be honest I wouldn't even consider International Tournaments as anything more than entertainment value given the talent disparity than arises between some of the teams. They're great for looking at the tools a prospect may have, but offer little value in terms of player predictiveness. I'm open to the idea that Hughes would go ahead of Rossi, but I really don't think he would go ahead of Lafreniere or Byfield and I have a hard time putting Kakko over any of them.

Even when you adjust for the inflated scoring rate in the OHL and Rossi's late birthday he is still having the best draft eligible season since McDavid; the same is true for Byfield, though when I last looked he was behind Marner in adjusted scoring. You also have to account for a similarly inflated scoring in the Liiga as the league is not nearly as good as it once was with Jokerit having left and moved to the KHL and there is also now an extra team in the league.

Seems like you are basing where they should go 100% on their stats. I think that’s flawed for a number of reasons, and is going to lead you to different conclusions than NHL teams that employ and pay for scouts for a reason.

I get it, every year we want to put the upcoming draft on a pedestal. But Hughes and Kakko were very good prospects, so to suggest there are 4 players who are better prospects sets the bar unrealistically high, and is likely going to lead to disappointment for those who believe it.

I think this is a good draft class. Has the potential to be better than last year for sure. But let’s not get carried away with this.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Seems like you are basing where they should go 100% on their stats. I think that’s flawed for a number of reasons, and is going to lead you to different conclusions than NHL teams that employ and pay for scouts for a reason.

I get it, every year we want to put the upcoming draft on a pedestal. But Hughes and Kakko were very good prospects, to suggest there are 4 players who are better prospects sets the bar unrealistically high and is likely going to lead to disappointment for those who believe it.

I think this is a good draft class. Has the potential to be better than last year for sure. But let’s not get carried away with this.

I think when players are close in production you can defer to their tools, but in situations where their production produces a huge gap between players their isn't really a tool that could change my mind. I also don't think that because teams/scouts don't use a strategy means that it is worse than what they're currently doing. NHL teams are generally extremely inefficient when it comes to drafting and a computer that selected players based on their NHLe would be more successful than most, if not all, teams.

Truthfully, I think that the top 5/10 is where stats matter the least and you can defer to your scouts judgement a little more. Ideally a prospect has both the production to back up their tools, but I would rather gamble on a prospect that has the production and no tools than one that has no production and just tools, I'll call it the "Podkolzin Argument". Production + Tools > Production > Tools.

I don't think there is anything wrong with suggesting that as of now there are 4, if not 5, players that have top line upside. Their production and skill sets suggest that they have that level of upside and while it's unlikely that all of 4/5 of them reach that level it would be unfair to the player to say that they don't have that upside.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I think when players are close in production you can defer to their tools, but in situations where their production produces a huge gap between players their isn't really a tool that could change my mind. I also don't think that because teams/scouts don't use a strategy means that it is worse than what they're currently doing. NHL teams are generally extremely inefficient when it comes to drafting and a computer that selected players based on their NHLe would be more successful than most, if not all, teams.

Truthfully, I think that the top 5/10 is where stats matter the least and you can defer to your scouts judgement a little more. Ideally a prospect has both the production to back up their tools, but I would rather gamble on a prospect that has the production and no tools than one that has no production and just tools, I'll call it the "Podkolzin Argument". Production + Tools > Production > Tools.

I don't think there is anything wrong with suggesting that as of now there are 4, if not 5, players that have top line upside. Their production and skill sets suggest that they have that level of upside and while it's unlikely that all of 4/5 of them reach that level it would be unfair to the player to say that they don't have that upside.

First time I’ve ever seen someone say production > tools. Usually people lie and pretend they know about the tools before they admit that stats are the driving factor.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I defer to tools before production for sure.

 

[Henkka]

First time I’ve ever seen someone say production > tools. Usually people lie and pretend they know about the tools before they admit that stats are the driving factor.

Stats are the driving factor for point-producing players. But not for all players in hockey and hockey teams.

 

[bedtime20]

Just did 100 lottery sims
Results...
1st.16/100
2nd.11/100
3rd.17/100
4th.56/100

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Just did 100 lottery sims
Results...
1st.16/100
2nd.11/100
3rd.17/100
4th.56/100

 

[Red Stanley]

Just did 100 lottery sims
Results...
1st.16/100
2nd.11/100
3rd.17/100
4th.56/100

And 100/100 chance of getting a great prospect in that draft range.

 

[deca guard]

1- lafraniere
2- stutzle
3- ? , have to see the big center holloway still

 

[Killerjas]

1- lafraniere
2- stutzle
3- ? , have to see the big center holloway still

???

Byfield is the consensus 2nd overall pick. 3rd overall a toss between Raymond & Stutzle

 

[deca guard]

???

Byfield is the consensus 2nd overall pick. 3rd overall a toss between Raymond & Stutzle

we just found out i dont agree with the consensus just like yzerman didnt agree with it last draft

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Byfield is likely to go through what Dach did on this board now last year. People will drop him outside of the industry while his standing with actual scouts will likely remain unchanged.

 

[deca guard]

for me i see motor as a huge huge factor in an nhler , and once i got a grasp of stuzle motor to go along with his skates-mind-hands the allstar light went on .

 

[Marky9er]

Byfield is likely to go through what Dach did on this board now last year. People will drop him outside of the industry while his standing with actual scouts will likely remain unchanged.

My thoughts on that are this: Byfield is of Jamaican descent, and he's huge like Malkin.

He's Jamalkin and peoples rankings are of no consequence.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

we just found out i dont agree with the consensus just like yzerman didnt agree with it last draft

Anybody who's been following your prospect analysis for more than a week isn't surprised that you don't agree.

 

[Frk It]

Byfield is likely to go through what Dach did on this board now last year. People will drop him outside of the industry while his standing with actual scouts will likely remain unchanged.

Except Byfield is giving far less reasons to be dropped.

We will see what Bob’s mid-season list reveals. That’s always the best indicator to go off of. Last year after the lottery this board was hellbent Turcotte was going to Chicago despite the fact that Bob never had him as a top 3 player.... then he gets drafted 5th.

 

[Marky9er]

Dylan Garand at eliteprospects.com has to be our guy, right?

 

[Maverick41]

Not sure if this has been posted before since the article is from January 5th, but this is what Seider told The Athletic about Stützle.

When Seider is asked about Stützle, he starts by pointing to how humble he is before talking about his talent.
“He knows where he comes from, and he knows where he wants to go. He’s getting huge trust from Mannheim, he’s playing a lot of minutes, he’s leading the power play and he’s a great kid. He’s a smart kid. I’m pretty confident that he will learn and he will adjust pretty quickly. He’s going to be a phenomenal superstar,” Seider said.
“I think his brain stands out. His brain is phenomenal, he has great hockey sense, he can anticipate plays before anyone else, and he’s a phenomenal skater too. I think he brings everything. And during the summer he got way stronger than last season. He’s pretty stable on his feet. All in all, he’s already a great hockey player.”

The full article on Stützle (paywall):
Top 2020 NHL draft prospect Tim Stützle leads Germany's...

 

[DetroitRed]

If I knew I was going to pick fourth, which of course is where they'll most likely draft, then I would most strongly consider Stutzle and Drysdale.

At the moment, I think Raymond would most likely go third over all. Perfetti is a guy to watch who could get into that tier of talent at fourth pick before things are said and done, but right now, I think fourth pick is really a conversation about Stutzle and Drysdale.

 

[WaW]

Absolutely, yes. Look at what they did in international tournaments. Then factor in that Hughes is a significantly better skater and Kakko is way bigger. Then factor in that Rossi is a year older and the OHL scoring is inflated big time this year.

It’s not even close.

Kakko is also a way better skater than Rossi. We know this because everyone falsely criticized his skating last year when in reality it wasn't far off (though not AS great) from Hughes' skating. If Hughes is a 10/10 skater, Kakko is 8.5/10 at worst.

Having seen Rossi play several times, his skating is good but needs to be a bit better considering he's 5'9. When you compare it to Laf, Byfield, and Toaster Strudel's elite skating abilities, Rossi is well off that mark IMO. Rossi is an absolute stud with the puck though, probably at Lafreniere's level in that regard.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Only options at 4 should be Raymond Stutzle and Drysdale

 

[ArmChairGM89]

If I knew I was going to pick fourth, which of course is where they'll most likely draft, then I would most strongly consider Stutzle and Drysdale.

At the moment, I think Raymond would most likely go third over all. Perfetti is a guy to watch who could get into that tier of talent at fourth pick before things are said and done, but right now, I think fourth pick is really a conversation about Stutzle and Drysdale.

Im beginning to think stutzle won’t be there at 4. I’ve been saying since November if I miss lafreniere I draft stutzle. Now it seems some analysts are projecting him as high as 2. I think Morrales from the athletic has him at 2, among others.

 

[Frk It]

Im beginning to think stutzle won’t be there at 4. I’ve been saying since November if I miss lafreniere I draft stutzle. Now it seems some analysts are projecting him as high as 2. I think Morrales from the athletic has him at 2, among others.

Would love it if Byfield and Raymond could be had at 3/4 since 3/4 is more likely for us than 1/2.

Thar would be ideal... but again, I think we should see what Bob’s mid-season list says. Most other lists out there are rankings and not indicative of where players will go.