2020 NHL Draft Thread: Who knows how many more days until this year's hockey tryouts? - Part II

[2Pair]

I could not disagree more.

The church of BPA premised on the accuracy of draft charts, or sometimes media created big boards or mock, which is like building a house of sand.

If you cannot definitively say Perfetti or Holtz or Raymond is better than Zary, which you cannot, than drafting Zary is anything but a reach.

Drafting need at least is built on solid evidence that the Wild, not some platonic, abstract, phantom NHL team, knows there is a massive premium to adding true centers to the franchise.

Look no further than JEE. He is incredibly valuable to the Wild, in large part because he is a center. Now take the same premium that is attached to him and apply it to a natural center with significantly more skill.

Just pay what it takes to move up and stop outsourcing this franchise's success to luck or being at the mercy of what other team's do.

This whole take couldn't be more wrong.

The "church of BPA" has nothing to do with draft charts or media bog boards. It's entirely and solely based on the work of the Scouting department and Front office.

The bolded above is exactly what the scouting staff is paid to do. They're not always going to be correct, but there will always be an decision.

 

[nickschultzfan]

This whole take couldn't be more wrong.

The "church of BPA" has nothing to do with draft charts or media bog boards. It's entirely and solely based on the work of the Scouting department and Front office.

The bolded above is exactly what the scouting staff is paid to do. They're not always going to be correct, but there will always be an decision.

Church of BPA is mostly outsiders who are not privy to NHL draft boards. It is often fan fiction that is mostly complaining about "reaches" or scream at letting "talented" players drop. Or frankly people being just afraid to sound outside of the norm.

As articulated in common discourse, it is bad draft strategy.

NHL have draft boards, but that is one factor out of several that teams use on draft day.

Scarcity is always a factor. Always. Year after year teams draft centers and right shot defensemen "earlier" - but only according to media pundits. People in management dont think this way, but a rare skill to play a rare position is still rare.

It also matters who is still on the board. Teams move up or down based on getting the guy at the top of their board at valued spots.

And yes, team need is a major factor. Decreasing marginal benefit to an asset you have a lot of is basic stuff. A surplus is a surplus. A shortage is a shortage. There is no such thing as a hockey team of 23 goalies. No NHL franchise has enough centers.

Centers are like getting an Athletic subscription. You either pay the cost and enjoy the sweet rewards or you dont and complain about paywalls and how you dont think the content is not really worth the $$. Only one of those two groups of people is happy.

 

[AKL]

Church of BPA is mostly outsiders who are not privy to NHL draft boards. It is often fan fiction that is mostly complaining about "reaches" or scream at letting "talented" players drop. Or frankly people being just afraid to sound outside of the norm.

As articulated in common discourse, it is bad draft strategy.

NHL have draft boards, but that is one factor out of several that teams use on draft day.

Scarcity is always a factor. Always. Year after year teams draft centers and right shot defensemen "earlier" - but only according to media pundits. People in management dont think this way, but a rare skill to play a rare position is still rare.

It also matters who is still on the board. Teams move up or down based on getting the guy at the top of their board at valued spots.

And yes, team need is a major factor. Decreasing marginal benefit to an asset you have a lot of is basic stuff. A surplus is a surplus. A shortage is a shortage. There is no such thing as a hockey team of 23 goalies. No NHL franchise has enough centers.

Centers are like getting an Athletic subscription. You either pay the cost and enjoy the sweet rewards or you dont and complain about paywalls and how you dont think the content is not really worth the $$. Only one of those two groups of people is happy.

So if the scouting team decides they believe Holtz is clearly better than Zary, are you okay with them taking Holtz if Zary is on the board? Or let's say they were to pick 7ish and have the choice between Drysdale and Rossi/Lundell. Do you fault them for not taking the center if their list has the other guy higher?

 

[nickschultzfan]

So if the scouting team decides they believe Holtz is clearly better than Zary, are you okay with them taking Holtz if Zary is on the board? Or let's say they were to pick 7ish and have the choice between Drysdale and Rossi/Lundell. Do you fault them for not taking the center if their list has the other guy higher?

There is a reason scouts are scouts and GMs are GMs.

There is the small picture and big picture.

I would absolutely take Rossi or Lundell over Drysdale or Zary over Holtz if it were that close (e.g. no major red flags with anyone).

The goal is not to be the best picker of guys who play lots of NHL games over a 20 year period.

The goal is to win a Stanley Cup, which is an event in time, and takes 4 Cs, 3 RDs, 2 Gs, 3 LDs, 4 RWs, 4 LWs, and a handful of backups, performing at the top of their game during the same spring.

That is why I called it the Church of BPA. It worships getting a pick "right" in hindsight over winning a Cup. And fears "missing" a pick over never being a contender.

 

[AKL]

There is a reason scouts are scouts and GMs are GMs.

There is the small picture and big picture.

I would absolutely take Rossi or Lundell over Drysdale or Zary over Holtz if it were that close (e.g. no major red flags with anyone).

The goal is not to be the best picker of guys who play lots of NHL games over a 20 year period.

The goal is to win a Stanley Cup, which is an event in time, and takes 4 Cs, 3 RDs, 2 Gs, 3 LDs, 4 RWs, 4 LWs, and a handful of backups, performing at the top of their game during the same spring.

That is why I called it the Church of BPA. It worships getting a pick "right" in hindsight over winning a Cup. And fears "missing" a pick over never being a contender.

So if the scouting and management teams decided Holtz, Drysdale, Raymond were definitely better than Rossi, Zary, Lundell, you wouldn't be okay with them taking the non-center, because we need a Kevin Hayes more than a Kyle Connor. Do I have that right?

 

[2Pair]

There is a reason scouts are scouts and GMs are GMs.

There is the small picture and big picture.

I would absolutely take Rossi or Lundell over Drysdale or Zary over Holtz if it were that close (e.g. no major red flags with anyone).

The goal is not to be the best picker of guys who play lots of NHL games over a 20 year period.

The goal is to win a Stanley Cup, which is an event in time, and takes 4 Cs, 3 RDs, 2 Gs, 3 LDs, 4 RWs, 4 LWs, and a handful of backups, performing at the top of their game during the same spring.

That is why I called it the Church of BPA. It worships getting a pick "right" in hindsight over winning a Cup. And fears "missing" a pick over never being a contender.

Not really sure what pictures you're seeing? It's not the scouting staffs job to win the Cup. The scouting staffs job is to pick the best players possible. It takes an entire organization to win a Stanley Cup. Problems arise when people start trying to do the jobs of others.

 

[nickschultzfan]

NHL draft is the best venue to get centers.

First round is best place to get high end centers.

Using your first round pick on a center is best path to achieving that you acquire a high end center.

Straight forward picture.

 

[2Pair]

NHL draft is the best venue to get centers.

First round is best place to get high end centers.

Using your first round pick on a center is best path to achieving that you acquire a high end center.

Straight forward picture.

Replace the word "center" with LW, RW, or Defenseman and nothing changes.
Your brilliant wisdom above only works if there's actually a high end center available. Otherwise you're left with a decision like taking Eriksson Ek instead of Boeser. Because, center?

 

[nickschultzfan]

Replace the word "center" with LW, RW, or Defenseman and nothing changes.
Your brilliant wisdom above only works if there's actually a high end center available. Otherwise you're left with a decision like taking Eriksson Ek instead of Boeser. Because, center?

What would be this franchise's outlook if we did take Boeser over JEE?

 

[2Pair]

What would be this franchise's outlook if we did take Boeser over JEE?

That's an impossible question to accurately answer but the debate about which player is better isn't a tough one. Bottom 6 players aren't difficult to find.

 

[SupremeNachos]

What would be this franchise's outlook if we did take Boeser over JEE?

Would you rather have a shutdown C who is a 2/3 tweener or a elite scoring RW who plays 60 regular season games a year before getting injured?

 

[nickschultzfan]

Picking on JEE, when he might be the one guy that holds this franchise together after Koivu and Staal, is hilarious. We actually drafted a natural center in the back half 1st, and he is working out pretty well. Imagine if we actually drafted a guy in the top-10.

Also, that Koivu guy worked out pretty well.

 

[2Pair]

Picking on JEE, when he might be the one guy that holds this franchise together after Koivu and Staal, is hilarious. We actually drafted a natural center in the back half 1st, and he is working out pretty well. Imagine if we actually drafted a guy in the top-10.

Also, that Koivu guy worked out pretty well.

Eriksson Ek is maybe inside the top 15 most important players on the team. Thinking he could be the guy to hold it all together is embarrassing. Drafting bottom 6 players in the 1st round isn't success. Bringing up Koivu just shows how little you understand the conversation.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Eriksson Ek is maybe inside the top 15 most important players on the team. Thinking he could be the guy to hold it all together is embarrassing. Drafting bottom 6 players in the 1st round isn't success. Bringing up Koivu just shows how little you understand the conversation.

Good luck with your strategy man. May you live a thousand years and never miss on a draft pick.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Show me a list of great NHL players that don't take the puck to the net? Not sure what video you watched, but the one above is Rossi making incredible passes from the perimeter or finishing plays from teammates. I never said he can't do those things, I said there's no evidence of it in the video that was posted. I would love to see video of Rossi winning puck battles and/or skating past defenders. Until I do see it, I'm going to doubt that he's very good at either.

I don't pretend to be a scout so all that I can go off of are things that I've actually seen. Please feel free to post the video of the player that you see.

I really don't like that I'm coming off as not being a fan of Rossi. I think the kid is extremely enticing and I love his game. I just get the sense that some of you are turning him into the player that you're wishing for and not the player he actually is?

This absolutely could be the case. I’ve never said I’m any good at scouting, I just state my opinion and my general opinion on Rossi is that he could be a stud 1C who could run your power play for years. I think his skating it’s much better than granlund’s. I think he‘ll have to adjust to the pro game for a few seasons but ultimately he’s nowhere near a finished product.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I could not disagree more.

The church of BPA premised on the accuracy of draft charts, or sometimes media created big boards or mock, which is like building a house of sand.

If you cannot definitively say Perfetti or Holtz or Raymond is better than Zary, which you cannot, than drafting Zary is anything but a reach.

Drafting need at least is built on solid evidence that the Wild, not some platonic, abstract, phantom NHL team, knows there is a massive premium to adding true centers to the franchise.

Look no further than JEE. He is incredibly valuable to the Wild, in large part because he is a center. Now take the same premium that is attached to him and apply it to a natural center with significantly more skill.

Just pay what it takes to move up and stop outsourcing this franchise's success to luck or being at the mercy of what other team's do.

There’s really no way to say who is going to be better than who until it’s all said and done, this is correct. But teams spend millions of dollars a year to construct a list that they feel is as correct as it can be based on the information they have. If they decide Cole Perfetti is ranked 5th in their board, and he’s somehow there at 11, they’re not going to jump to their #17 to get the surefire center, and they shouldn’t. Like I said, I really hope it makes sense to grab a C 11, but I also know that whomever we select at 11 this year won’t be playing a pivotal role for this team for at minimum 2 years, probably closer to 5 just based on history, and that’s if they play a pivotal role at all. It’s about 50/50 for selecting players who will play more than 200 games at 11OA. I want to take the best shot we have at getting an impact player. If that happens to be center I’ll be ecstatic.


As for moving up: I think there’s a certain line of risk/reward that you have to walk, and I’m not confident enough in any player in this draft outside of Lafreniere to move 2 1sts and Dumba, who a year ago was untouchable.

 

[2Pair]

This absolutely could be the case. I’ve never said I’m any good at scouting, I just state my opinion and my general opinion on Rossi is that he could be a stud 1C who could run your power play for years. I think his skating it’s much better than granlund’s. I think he‘ll have to adjust to the pro game for a few seasons but ultimately he’s nowhere near a finished product.

I honestly hope that the Wild draft the Kid and I honestly hope that he does turn into that stud #1C. I just feel that it's time to pump the brakes on some of the hyperbole being thrown around about the kid. He's about as far from a "sure thing" as they come.

 

[nickschultzfan]

There’s really no way to say who is going to be better than who until it’s all said and done, this is correct. But teams spend millions of dollars a year to construct a list that they feel is as correct as it can be based on the information they have. If they decide Cole Perfetti is ranked 5th in their board, and he’s somehow there at 11, they’re not going to jump to their #17 to get the surefire center, and they shouldn’t. Like I said, I really hope it makes sense to grab a C 11, but I also know that whomever we select at 11 this year won’t be playing a pivotal role for this team for at minimum 2 years, probably closer to 5 just based on history, and that’s if they play a pivotal role at all. It’s about 50/50 for selecting players who will play more than 200 games at 11OA. I want to take the best shot we have at getting an impact player. If that happens to be center I’ll be ecstatic.


As for moving up: I think there’s a certain line of risk/reward that you have to walk, and I’m not confident enough in any player in this draft outside of Lafreniere to move 2 1sts and Dumba, who a year ago was untouchable.

Mr. Scout,

Thank you for you and your team's hard work. I can tell you all have put a great amount of effort and wisdom to give us the best scouting team in the world. We are very fortunate to have you in our organization.

Here are my revisions to your most recent proposed draft board. As you will see, there are systematic changes to reflect updated assessments as to positional value based research from the analytics team and opinion in management. Note, I left your rankings as to particular players within a position unchanged.

For the most significant of these updates, I point you to the previously-ranked 5th player, who you project as a 1st line offense winger and the previously-ranked 17th player, who you project as a 2nd line center.

Moving forward, 2nd line centers will be considered as more valuable than 1st line scoring winger. I have noted the weighting premiums and discounts in the spreadsheet. Moreover, these updated valuations are timely for our team, as our system has a shortage of NHL level centers.

This is a shift from prior policy, but this will give our organization the best chance to achieve our goal - to win a Stanley Cup.

Please let me know if you would like to discuss. As you know, my office door is always open.

Thanks again and looking forward to another great draft.

Best regards,
GM

 

[2Pair]

Mr. Scout,

Thank you for you and your team's hard work. I can tell you all have put a great amount of effort and wisdom to give us the best scouting team in the world. We are very fortunate to have you in our organization.

Here are my revisions to your most recent proposed draft board. As you will see, there are systematic changes to reflect updated assessments as to positional value based research from the analytics team and opinion in management. Note, I left your rankings as to particular players within a position unchanged.

For the most significant of these updates, I point you to the previously-ranked 5th player, who you project as a 1st line offense winger and the previously-ranked 17th player, who you project as a 2nd line center.

Moving forward, 2nd line centers will be considered as more valuable than 1st line scoring winger. I have noted the weighting premiums and discounts in the spreadsheet. Moreover, these updated valuations are timely for our team, as our system has a shortage of NHL level centers.

This is a shift from prior policy, but this will give our organization the best chance to achieve our goal - to win a Stanley Cup.

Please let me know if you would like to discuss. As you know, my office door is always open.

Thanks again and looking forward to another great draft.

Best regards,
GM

Mr. GM,

Thank you for your hard work. Due to your completely asinine view of player values, I regret to inform you that your services are no longer needed.

Best regards,
Mr. Owner

 

[nickschultzfan]

Mr. GM,

Thank you for your hard work. Due to your completely asinine view of player values, I regret to inform you that your services are no longer needed.

Best regards,
Mr. Owner

Mr. Owner,

I have received your termination letter dated May, 11, 2020. Per terms of our contract, please wire to the below account my early termination fee of $2 million.

Thank you for the opportunity to manage your franchise. Good luck with the draft and the rest of the year.

Best regards,
Former GM

 

[thestonedkoala]

What is going on here?

 

[AKL]

Mr. Scout,

Thank you for you and your team's hard work. I can tell you all have put a great amount of effort and wisdom to give us the best scouting team in the world. We are very fortunate to have you in our organization.

Here are my revisions to your most recent proposed draft board. As you will see, there are systematic changes to reflect updated assessments as to positional value based research from the analytics team and opinion in management. Note, I left your rankings as to particular players within a position unchanged.

For the most significant of these updates, I point you to the previously-ranked 5th player, who you project as a 1st line offense winger and the previously-ranked 17th player, who you project as a 2nd line center.

Moving forward, 2nd line centers will be considered as more valuable than 1st line scoring winger. I have noted the weighting premiums and discounts in the spreadsheet. Moreover, these updated valuations are timely for our team, as our system has a shortage of NHL level centers.

This is a shift from prior policy, but this will give our organization the best chance to achieve our goal - to win a Stanley Cup.

Please let me know if you would like to discuss. As you know, my office door is always open.

Thanks again and looking forward to another great draft.

Best regards,
GM

Hate to break it to you, but almost all teams will take the better player over the position their roster needs at the moment. On top of the fact that the better player gives you more value to work with in possible future trades, and the fact that the player is better, these guys are also often 3-5 years from making an impact. If we take Zary because he’s a center, he’s not going to be an impact player for 3-5 years. If we’re relying on using him for the next 1-3 years to fill the gap on the roster, we’re going to be disappointed. And frankly we have no idea what our team needs in 3-5 years. That’s why you don’t draft for position.

 

[a79krgm]

Although I want the Wild to choose the best available skater regardless of position, I would like BG to take a hard look at drafting a goalie in the 1st round. That's assuming that the Wild will be using Pittsburgh's 1st rounder this year. If Askarov, for example, is a legitimate 1st round buy, then the Wild should take him with their 2nd pick.

 

[2Pair]

Although I want the Wild to choose the best available skater regardless of position, I would like BG to take a hard look at drafting a goalie in the 1st round. That's assuming that the Wild will be using Pittsburgh's 1st rounder this year. If Askarov, for example, is a legitimate 1st round buy, then the Wild should take him with their 2nd pick.

I would rather go with NickSchultzFan's plan than take a goalie in the 1st round.

 

[AKL]

I highly doubt Askarov will still be on the board at 24 if Knight went in the early teens. However, if he is on the board at 24, I would consider taking him, with the hopes that he could be our Vasilevskiy. I’d still rather take whoever falls out of the teens though, because there’s always one, and we need the help in the skater positions more than we need a goalie long term.