Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft - Part III

[Spoiled Bratt]

Why is everyone coming up with worst case scenarios all the time? Who’s to say we don’t win the lottery and pick in the top #3 while the Habs and Hawks win their qualifying round and the Yotes lose theirs, dropping their pick to 8th overall?

Both scenarios are just as likely. A hot goalie like Price can win that series on his own and it’s not like we haven’t seen it happen before. As for the Oilers they can continue to be the Oilers and suck when it matters the most versus two guys who have playoff experience in Toews and Kane.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

It’s very frustrating not having a clue where we will pick in the draft.
What could really suck and is somewhat depressing if it happened - we slide down any spots with our pick , Coyotes pick slides , Vancouver pick moves to next year , and we have to wait until January 2021 for Devils regular season hockey.....
It would be less painful waiting that long if we knew we had Lafrenier on the team.

I’m done caring about winning the lottery. The first pick is nowhere near a guarantee of getting the best player and I don’t want to be viewed as the Oilers East. Stützle, Rossi, Drysdale, etc. could be the Pettersson or Makar of this draft, who knows?

 

[Unknown Caller]

Why is everyone coming up with worst case scenarios all the time? Who’s to say we don’t win the lottery and pick in the top #3 while the Habs and Hawks win their qualifying round and the Yotes lose theirs, dropping their pick to 8th overall?

Both scenarios are just as likely. A hot goalie like Price can win that series on his own and it’s not like we haven’t seen it happen before. As for the Oilers they can continue to be the Oilers and suck when it matters the most versus two guys who have playoff experience in Toews and Kane.

From a purely mathematical perspective alone, both scenarios are not remotely close to “just as likely.”

The Devils have about a 23% chance to get a top 3 pick. They have a 60.4% chance of sliding back from #6.

Montreal has a 37% chance to win their play in series and Chicago has a 47% chance to win their play in series.

So the ideal scenario is actually incredibly unlikely.

 

[Billdo]

Can we just give up everything to take Shane Wright?

 

[Nocashstyle]

I’m done caring about winning the lottery. The first pick is nowhere near a guarantee of getting the best player and I don’t want to be viewed as the Oilers East. Stützle, Rossi, Drysdale, etc. could be the Pettersson or Makar of this draft, who knows?

I'm with you for the most part, but Lafreniere obviously seems pretty exciting. Jumping up to the 2nd or 3rd pick would be cool, but I'm not as concerned there as it seems there is a group of several players that are pretty interchangeable. Byfield looks to be favorite to go #2, but it isn't unanimous. #3 seems to be a complete crapshoot. We are getting someone good no matter where we're picking.

 

[Devils731]

I'm with you for the most part, but Lafreniere obviously seems pretty exciting. Jumping up to the 2nd or 3rd pick would be cool, but I'm not as concerned there as it seems there is a group of several players that are pretty interchangeable. Byfield looks to be favorite to go #2, but it isn't unanimous. #3 seems to be a complete crapshoot. We are getting someone good no matter where we're picking.

It seems that for a lot of people pick 3 will be closer to pick 9 in terms of potential than pick 1 is to pick 3.

So I’m in agreement, the Devils are in a good spot with their pick no matter what but there is the potential of getting lucky and jumping to spot 1 or 2.

I’ll happily jump up to #1 in return for other fanbases complaining.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Moving up would be great, but moving down is objectively bad. You have fewer players to choose from.

Perhaps Rossi end up being the best player in this draft, and our scouts are smart enough to have him #1 on their board. Great, but *he still needs to be there at our pick* in order for us to take him. Every pick that occurs in front of us decreases the chances of us getting the player we want.

In 2015 Arizona finished in 29th place. They *should* have gotten Jack Eichel at #2. But Edmonton won the lottery and bumped them to #3 where they picked Dylan Strome. That was enormously consequential to the trajectory of that franchise. Imagine if Edmonton didn't get bumped 2 spots in 2016 and drafted Laine instead of Puljujarvi.

Of course, the best player of the draft could end up being not the #1 pick. But the lower your pick slides, the less players you have to choose from.

We're going to get a good player regardless. We don't need to move up, though it would be nice. Moving down unquestionably hurts.

 

[Zippy316]

Moving up would be great, but moving down is objectively bad. You have fewer players to choose from.

Perhaps Rossi end up being the best player in this draft, and our scouts are smart enough to have him #1 on their board. Great, but *he still needs to be there at our pick* in order for us to take him. Every pick that occurs in front of us decreases the chances of us getting the player we want.

In 2015 Arizona finished in 29th place. They *should* have gotten Jack Eichel at #2. But Edmonton won the lottery and bumped them to #3 where they picked Dylan Strome. That was enormously consequential to the trajectory of that franchise. Imagine if Edmonton didn't get bumped 2 spots in 2016 and drafted Laine instead of Puljujarvi.

Of course, the best player of the draft could end up being not the #1 pick. But the lower your pick slides, the less players you have to choose from.

We're going to get a good player regardless. We don't need to move up, though it would be nice. Moving down unquestionably hurts.

I think it all just depends on how your internal scouting staff ranks the draft. Where the drop off is, where the guys that you covet are, etc. You may not see much of a difference from #10 to #15 if you think there's very little separating #8 from #21 for example.

At this point for the Devils, trading back makes little sense because we need quality and not quantity.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Moving up would be great, but moving down is objectively bad. You have fewer players to choose from.

Perhaps Rossi end up being the best player in this draft, and our scouts are smart enough to have him #1 on their board. Great, but *he still needs to be there at our pick* in order for us to take him. Every pick that occurs in front of us decreases the chances of us getting the player we want.

In 2015 Arizona finished in 29th place. They *should* have gotten Jack Eichel at #2. But Edmonton won the lottery and bumped them to #3 where they picked Dylan Strome. That was enormously consequential to the trajectory of that franchise. Imagine if Edmonton didn't get bumped 2 spots in 2016 and drafted Laine instead of Puljujarvi.

Of course, the best player of the draft could end up being not the #1 pick. But the lower your pick slides, the less players you have to choose from.

We're going to get a good player regardless. We don't need to move up, though it would be nice. Moving down unquestionably hurts.

Yep. I'd rather hedge and give up any possibility of moving up if it meant staying put where they are right now. Obviously not an option though.

 

[NJDevs26]

The Devils got absolutely hosed by this format probably more than any other team, no two ways around it. Only in a borderline best case scenario (other than winning the lottery) will they wind up with what would have been likely if the season played out (#6, #10 and #17).

Now (1) there’s a good chance they get jumped and their pick pushed back, (2) Arizona was dead in the water and now just has to win 3 games against John Hynes to move into a playoff spot and (3) a shaky Vancouver team who was likely one and done in the playoffs will now keep their pick if they lose to Minnesota.

There’s no more chance of 1 happening now than there was before. As far as 2 and 3, let us say one or both picks do get deferred....how do you know next year’s pick wouldn’t be in the same range or better anyway? It’s useless to hand wring over possibly not getting a pick this year if you have a decent shot (especially in Arizona’s case) of getting an unprotected lottery pick next year. It’s not like we’re losing a first rounder period.

 

[My3Sons]

From a purely mathematical perspective alone, both scenarios are not remotely close to “just as likely.”

The Devils have about a 23% chance to get a top 3 pick. They have a 60.4% chance of sliding back from #6.

Montreal has a 37% chance to win their play in series and Chicago has a 47% chance to win their play in series.

So the ideal scenario is actually incredibly unlikely.

While it's easy to handle stats for a lottery, I'm not sure you can quantify an actual chance to win a playoff/play in series. Maybe those are gambling odds, and sure it's easy to say you favor one team or the other but presenting the specific percentage chance of one team winning is just an opinion. Right now, we don't know who shows up ready to play and who spent the entire off time playing fortnite.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I think it all just depends on how your internal scouting staff ranks the draft. Where the drop off is, where the guys that you covet are, etc. You may not see much of a difference from #10 to #15 if you think there's very little separating #8 from #21 for example.

At this point for the Devils, trading back makes little sense because we need quality and not quantity.

I agree with this completely, wherever our first(s) end up being you take the BPA and smile.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

It would be nice to win the lotto again but we are turning into the low key one of laughing stocks of the league. We haven't quite hit rock bottom as hard as teams like Ottawa Buffalo etc but we haven't been a really good hockey team in 8 years now. We whiffed a little bit in the 2017 draft by taking Nico and not Petersson , Makar or Heiskanen. Thank God we didnt take Patrick and I love Hischier too. It's still to early to judge Hughes , personally I think he is going to be an elite offensive talent so on not to worried about him. Regardless we need draft some good players of we are picking at 6 ,10 , 20 or wherever the picks fall too. This is the only way we are going to ever be a cup contender again. Enough duds more studs please.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Sounds to me like we should forget the draft and next season since all hope is lost anyway.

 

[Ja Sports]

New hype reel for Quinton Byfield this one was my favourite to make so far

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More videos are on the way

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

It would be nice to win the lotto again but we are turning into the low key one of laughing stocks of the league. We haven't quite hit rock bottom as hard as teams like Ottawa Buffalo etc but we haven't been a really good hockey team in 8 years now. We whiffed a little bit in the 2017 draft by taking Nico and not Petersson , Makar or Heiskanen. Thank God we didnt take Patrick and I love Hischier too. It's still to early to judge Hughes , personally I think he is going to be an elite offensive talent so on not to worried about him. Regardless we need draft some good players of we are picking at 6 ,10 , 20 or wherever the picks fall too. This is the only way we are going to ever be a cup contender again. Enough duds more studs please.

oh please, get out of here with this.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

oh please, get out of here with this.

I mean if it doesnt bother you that we could of had a pick between 2 future Norris caliber defensemen or a center who has nearly hit a ppg 2 seasons in a row and instead winded up with a player who will probably top out at 60 points (although he is excellent defensively). I love Nicos game and I am glad he is going to be the future of this team. It could have been alot worse if we had taken Patrick but some of you guys will defend the organizations blunders and than wonder why we have bee spinning tires for so long. I get that Nico wasnt a reach or anything but our scouting staff could have done better. It's a hard to swallow pill for some of you. That being said Hischier is going to be a star for us and likely our next captain. I'm still thrilled for him to be a Devil for a long time.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I like how we already know that Nico is topping out at 60 points even though he is a ~53 point player so far in his career (0.64 ppg) at age 21.

Literally the entire hockey world had Nico and Nolan 1 and 2. There really was not one reputable source that had any of the other guys up there so again, can we please not?

 

[Cheddabombs]

I mean if it doesnt bother you that we could of had a pick between 2 future Norris caliber defensemen or a center who has nearly hit a ppg 2 seasons in a row and instead winded up with a player who will probably top out at 60 points (although he is excellent defensively). I love Nicos game and I am glad he is going to be the future of this team. It could have been alot worse if we had taken Patrick but some of you guys will defend the organizations blunders and than wonder why we have bee spinning tires for so long. I get that Nico wasnt a reach or anything but our scouting staff could have done better. It's a hard to swallow pill for some of you. That being said Hischier is going to be a star for us and likely our next captain. I'm still thrilled for him to be a Devil for a long time.

lmao drafting Nico was not even close to a blunder. Drafting is still a crapshoot, of course if you have the foresight to know certain players are going to end up better you'd take them but no one does. At the time it was either Nico or Nolan at #1, that's it. No one else. If someone else turns out to be better so be it, doesn't mean picking Nico was wrong it means no one can predict the future.

 

[Billdo]

I mean if it doesnt bother you that we could of had a pick between 2 future Norris caliber defensemen or a center who has nearly hit a ppg 2 seasons in a row and instead winded up with a player who will probably top out at 60 points (although he is excellent defensively). I love Nicos game and I am glad he is going to be the future of this team. It could have been alot worse if we had taken Patrick but some of you guys will defend the organizations blunders and than wonder why we have bee spinning tires for so long. I get that Nico wasnt a reach or anything but our scouting staff could have done better. It's a hard to swallow pill for some of you. That being said Hischier is going to be a star for us and likely our next captain. I'm still thrilled for him to be a Devil for a long time.

The problem with this is that draft was a two man race. Hindsight allows you to look at it differently but at the time it was Nolan or Nico.

 

[OmNomNom]

I mean if it doesnt bother you that we could of had a pick between 2 future Norris caliber defensemen or a center who has nearly hit a ppg 2 seasons in a row and instead winded up with a player who will probably top out at 60 points (although he is excellent defensively). I love Nicos game and I am glad he is going to be the future of this team. It could have been alot worse if we had taken Patrick but some of you guys will defend the organizations blunders and than wonder why we have bee spinning tires for so long. I get that Nico wasnt a reach or anything but our scouting staff could have done better. It's a hard to swallow pill for some of you. That being said Hischier is going to be a star for us and likely our next captain. I'm still thrilled for him to be a Devil for a long time.

i'd argue that if you put petterson on our team, he would've suffered point totals wise

 

[Devilsfan118]

I mean if it doesnt bother you that we could of had a pick between 2 future Norris caliber defensemen or a center who has nearly hit a ppg 2 seasons in a row and instead winded up with a player who will probably top out at 60 points (although he is excellent defensively). I love Nicos game and I am glad he is going to be the future of this team. It could have been alot worse if we had taken Patrick but some of you guys will defend the organizations blunders and than wonder why we have bee spinning tires for so long. I get that Nico wasnt a reach or anything but our scouting staff could have done better. It's a hard to swallow pill for some of you. That being said Hischier is going to be a star for us and likely our next captain. I'm still thrilled for him to be a Devil for a long time.

Full disclosure, I absolutely wish we had one of Pettersson/Makar/Heiskanen instead of Nico right now but you can't pretend we didn't make the right move in the position we were in.

We were all witness to the "Nico vs. Nolan" debate. Taking Nico was the right move at the time.

 

[Darkauron]

Ah yes this conversation for the 2549th time

 

[FooteBahl]

Ah yes this conversation for the 2549th time

Then it will be the Jack conversation in two years...and then in 4 years how we should have picked Byfield over Lafreniere

 

[Brooklyndevil]

I see Nico only getting better. He also needs to get a tad stronger and add some muscle