NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion

[BondraTime]

Future Considerations has him ranked at 23 currently. Where do you think he should be ranked based on what you have seen of him/know about him? Early, mid or late 2nd round? 3 rd round? Or later?

If he was a few weeks older this year, I’d say late 1st/early 2nd. Had a great year, put up good stats in both regular season and playoffs as a guy who isn’t only offensive. Fit in well on the top PP, I think he’d have been taken a bit higher than he should have gone based on all the talent he was playing with.

Next year with Comtois, Velano, Guay, MacLeod, and Lauzon all gone out of their top 6 leaving only Mercer, I think he will be mid 2nd-3rd by the time of the draft.

He will likely lead Drummondville in most offensive categories, but I’m not sure he’ll be over, or much over, a point a game.

He is more than a fine pick anywhere in the 2nd in my opinion, he’s just more of what the team is already full of.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

If he was a few weeks older this year, I’d say late 1st/early 2nd. Had a great year, put up good stats in both regular season and playoffs as a guy who isn’t only offensive. Fit in well on the top PP, I think he’d have been taken a bit higher than he should have gone based on all the talent he was playing with.

Next year with Comtois, Velano, Guay, MacLeod, and Lauzon all gone out of their top 6 leaving only Mercer, I think he will be mid 2nd-3rd by the time of the draft.

He will likely lead Drummondville in most offensive categories, but I’m not sure he’ll be over, or much over, a point a game.

He is more than a fine pick anywhere in the 2nd in my opinion, he’s just more of what the team is already full of.

Thanks for the write up. Based on what you have mentioned here I think there will be better options in the 2nd round. From what I have seen with the Future Considerations early rankings here are some of the players that could be available that I would target over Mercer: Antonio Stranges, Jan Mysak, Jake Neighbours, Luke Tuch, Ozzy Wiesblatt, Connor Zary, Justin Sourdif, Jaromir Pytlik and JJ Peterka.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Jaromir Pytlik is another player to keep an eye on.
Jaromir Pytlik at eliteprospects.com

He played in the OHL last season and put up: 26 GP 11 G 8 A 19 PTS.

 

[aragorn]

Just my opinion but I think that would be the opposite of smart, unless the other players available are not high end / for sure top six/four guys

So you are of the opinion that drafting a legitimate franchise #1 goalie is not a smart idea? Noted.

 

[scallionjj11]

Dawson Mercer checks about every single box for the Sens drafting M.O with regards to picks they have made a habit of making

High compete
Good 2 way, plays in all situations
High character, leader on and off ice
Decent skill in goal scoring and playmaking
From the East Coast
Out of the Q
Nearly guaranteed to be a 3rd/4th liner

Will not have the skill or upside of a lot of guys available where he is selected

We'll take him with the first overall pick. Dorion would cream himself reading that description of Mercer.

 

[stempniaksen]

So you are of the opinion that drafting a legitimate franchise #1 goalie is not a smart idea? Noted.

Goalies are voodoo though. If the kid was a guaranteed #1 franchise goalies there would be no question, but that's not how this works when these kids get drafted at 18.

Last goalie to go top-10 was Jack Campbell, correct? He was supposed to be a franchise #1 and that never really worked out (props to him for sticking with it though, seem a to have carved out a decent role as a backup now).

 

[Hale The Villain]

Lazar, White, Bowers, Norris, Pinto

Sens scouting staff definitely has an infatuation with two-way centers with character that don't have high-end talent or offensive upside.

Expect Lundell with our 2019 1st, provided we don't win a top 3 pick in the lottery. Fits that mold to a tee.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-director-of-...hts-on-the-2020-nhl-draft-prospects-1.1350171

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Thanks for the write up. Based on what you have mentioned here I think there will be better options in the 2nd round. From what I have seen with the Future Considerations early rankings here are some of the players that could be available that I would target over Mercer: Antonio Stranges, Jan Mysak, Jake Neighbours, Luke Tuch, Ozzy Wiesblatt, Connor Zary, Justin Sourdif, Jaromir Pytlik and JJ Peterka.

Wiesblatt...wasn't that supposed to be some sort of family prodigy a few years ago? Kinda like the Hughes brothers where all of the kids were supposedly super-special several years before their draft year?

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Lazar, White, Bowers, Norris, Pinto

Sens scouting staff definitely has an infatuation with two-way centers with character that don't have high-end talent or offensive upside.

Expect Lundell with our 2019 1st, provided we don't win a top 3 pick in the lottery. Fits that mold to a tee.

Idk, isn't 19 points in 38 games in Liiga pretty damn good for a 17 year old?

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Idk, isn't 19 points in 38 games in Liiga pretty damn good for a 17 year old?

He’s also comparing late round picks to a guy likely to go top 7...not even comparable.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I really like the look of Raymond as a complement to Tkachuk on the top line. High-character and Marner like offensive talent. If you look at our young forwards (Tkachuk, Batherson, Norris, Brown), I think we have a lot of size and jam, but we lack some speed and creativity. Raymond would fit in great.

Obviously Lafreniere would be a win as well. Talent is off the charts, and the "local Francophone" angle would be big for this franchise. Him and Chabot would win over a lot of young kids who could be Habs fans.

Byfield is very intriguing, with his size and skill. And he projects as a C, a more premium position. But I am always a little weary of kids who are so physically mature at 16/17 dominating their peers. In the NHL, that advantage isn't a big.

Then you have Lundell and Lapierre (both look like future Bergeron's).

All in all, at least we're looking at the best draft since probably 2013 in the year we're going to suck.

 

[operasen]

Be amazing to get two Top 10 picks next draft. The next three we draft should be pretty good quality as well.
Do not want Dorion to include any of our current picks in a trade scenario

 

[DaveMatthew]

So you are of the opinion that drafting a legitimate franchise #1 goalie is not a smart idea? Noted.

The development curve for goalies is very different than players, so it's very hard to evaluate a kid's potential at 17. You have as good a chance as drafting a franchise goalie in the 2nd-4th round as you do in the first round, despite what the player looks like in his draft year. Look at the last goalies drafted in the top 30 between 2000 and 2014:

1. Rick Dipietro - 1st overall 2000
2. Brent Krahn - 9th overall 2000
3. Pascal Leclaire - 8th overall 2001
4. Dan Blackburn - 10th overall 2001
5. Jason Bacashihua - 26th overall 2001
6. Adam Munro - 29th overall 2001
7. Kari Lehtonen - 2nd overall 2002
8. Cam Ward - 25th overall 2002
9. Hannu Toivanen - 29th overall 2002
10. Marc-Andre Fleury - 1st overall 2003
11. Al Montoya - 6th overall 2004
12. Marek Schwarz - 12th overall 2004
13. Cory Schneider - 26th overall 2004
14. Carey Price - 5th overall 2005
15. Tuuka Rask - 21st overall 2005
16. Riku Helenius - 15th overall 2006
17. Semyon Varlamov - 23rd overall 2006
18. Leland Irving - 26th overall 2006
19. Chet Pickard - 18th overall 2008
20. Tom McCollum - 30th overall 2008
21. Jack Campbell - 1oth overall 2010
22. Mark Visentin - 27th overall 2010
23. Andre Vasilevskiy - 19th overall 2012
24. Malcolm Subban - 24th overall 2012

So out of 24 first round goalies, 4 became "franchise #1's". A 17% success rate.

If you're picking in the top 10, or top 5, it means you're a bad team with needs everywhere. Taking that big a risk on a goalie isn't smart, since you have to play the odds. A top 10 drafted skater has a much higher chance of being a star than a top 10 drafted goalie.

Now, if you're in the late 20's? You're a good team - so maybe it's worth taking that gamble.

But it won't be for Ottawa.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Center is our greatest need. Forget about drafting a goalie with our 1st.

 

[Micklebot]

The development curve for goalies is very different than players, so it's very hard to evaluate a kid's potential at 17. You have as good a chance as drafting a franchise goalie in the 2nd-4th round as you do in the first round, despite what the player looks like in his draft year. Look at the last goalies drafted in the top 30 between 2000 and 2014:

1. Rick Dipietro - 1st overall 2000
2. Brent Krahn - 9th overall 2000
3. Pascal Leclaire - 8th overall 2001
4. Dan Blackburn - 10th overall 2001
5. Jason Bacashihua - 26th overall 2001
6. Adam Munro - 29th overall 2001
7. Kari Lehtonen - 2nd overall 2002
8. Cam Ward - 25th overall 2002
9. Hannu Toivanen - 29th overall 2002
10. Marc-Andre Fleury - 1st overall 2003
11. Al Montoya - 6th overall 2004
12. Marek Schwarz - 12th overall 2004
13. Cory Schneider - 26th overall 2004
14. Carey Price - 5th overall 2005
15. Tuuka Rask - 21st overall 2005
16. Riku Helenius - 15th overall 2006
17. Semyon Varlamov - 23rd overall 2006
18. Leland Irving - 26th overall 2006
19. Chet Pickard - 18th overall 2008
20. Tom McCollum - 30th overall 2008
21. Jack Campbell - 1oth overall 2010
22. Mark Visentin - 27th overall 2010
23. Andre Vasilevskiy - 19th overall 2012
24. Malcolm Subban - 24th overall 2012

So out of 24 first round goalies, 4 became "franchise #1's". A 17% success rate.

If you're picking in the top 10, or top 5, it means you're a bad team with needs everywhere. Taking that big a risk on a goalie isn't smart, since you have to play the odds. A top 10 drafted skater has a much higher chance of being a star than a top 10 drafted goalie.

Now, if you're in the late 20's? You're a good team - so maybe it's worth taking that gamble.

But it won't be for Ottawa.

Probably not fair to include the 2012 guys. Vasilevskiy may not be a franchise goalie yet but he is trending as well as many of the guys you bolded.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

The development curve for goalies is very different than players, so it's very hard to evaluate a kid's potential at 17. You have as good a chance as drafting a franchise goalie in the 2nd-4th round as you do in the first round, despite what the player looks like in his draft year. Look at the last goalies drafted in the top 30 between 2000 and 2014:

1. Rick Dipietro - 1st overall 2000
2. Brent Krahn - 9th overall 2000
3. Pascal Leclaire - 8th overall 2001
4. Dan Blackburn - 10th overall 2001
5. Jason Bacashihua - 26th overall 2001
6. Adam Munro - 29th overall 2001
7. Kari Lehtonen - 2nd overall 2002
8. Cam Ward - 25th overall 2002
9. Hannu Toivanen - 29th overall 2002
10. Marc-Andre Fleury - 1st overall 2003
11. Al Montoya - 6th overall 2004
12. Marek Schwarz - 12th overall 2004
13. Cory Schneider - 26th overall 2004
14. Carey Price - 5th overall 2005
15. Tuuka Rask - 21st overall 2005
16. Riku Helenius - 15th overall 2006
17. Semyon Varlamov - 23rd overall 2006
18. Leland Irving - 26th overall 2006
19. Chet Pickard - 18th overall 2008
20. Tom McCollum - 30th overall 2008
21. Jack Campbell - 1oth overall 2010
22. Mark Visentin - 27th overall 2010
23. Andre Vasilevskiy - 19th overall 2012
24. Malcolm Subban - 24th overall 2012

So out of 24 first round goalies, 4 became "franchise #1's". A 17% success rate.

If you're picking in the top 10, or top 5, it means you're a bad team with needs everywhere. Taking that big a risk on a goalie isn't smart, since you have to play the odds. A top 10 drafted skater has a much higher chance of being a star than a top 10 drafted goalie.

Now, if you're in the late 20's? You're a good team - so maybe it's worth taking that gamble.

But it won't be for Ottawa.

I agree with your point but you also left out Vasilevskiy, so that's 5/24 who became legit #1 goalies/stars (aside from maybe Varlamov being a star).

I think Ottawa has enough goalies in the pipeline that hopefully at least 1 of them will make it big for us!

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Probably not fair to include the 2012 guys. Vasilevskiy may not be a franchise goalie yet but he is trending as well as many of the guys you bolded.

I'd take him over any of those guys he bolded (although age plays a big role in that). Vasa is just sooooo good.

 

[aragorn]

IMO Askorov G will be a better goalie than any of the goalies in the Ottawa system, at some point they will need a franchise goalie, if the plan is to win a Stanley Cup. One is available in the 2020 draft, you have a ton of picks/prospects that could be used to acquire the pick that gets you that franchise goalie. I just don't buy that nonsense about waiting for the later rounds to acquire one when the better goalie is available & they have the assets to acquire him even if it is in the first round. That is where I would expect a franchise goalie to be ranked but I am a little surprised that Button has Askorov as a possible first OA. I don't see that happening but Ottawa should definitely go after him with their 2nd 1st OA pick.

Yes, they don't always turn out & they are hard to predict but this kid's play has him IMO heads & shoulders above every other goalie in last yr's draft as well as this yr's draft & in Ottawa's system. And let me be clear, I'm not proposing they select Askorov with their first OA 1st rd pick but with their second OA 1st rd pick (SJ) & use some assets to move up to get him if needed. IMO they should use their first overall pick to select Byfield C/LW.

 

[DaveMatthew]

IMO Askorov G will be a better goalie than any of the goalies in the Ottawa system, at some point they will need a franchise goalie, if the plan is to win a Stanley Cup. One is available in the 2020 draft, you have a ton of picks/prospects that could be used to acquire the pick that gets you that franchise goalie. I just don't buy that nonsense about waiting for the later rounds to acquire one when the better goalie is available & they have the assets to acquire him even if it is in the first round. That is where I would expect a franchise goalie to be ranked.

Yes, they don't always turn out & they are hard to predict but this kid's play has him IMO heads & shoulders above every other goalie in last yr's draft as well as this yr's draft & in Ottawa's system. And let me be clear, I'm not proposing they select Askorov with their first OA 1st rd pick but with their second OA 1st rd pick (SJ) & use some assets to move up to get him if needed. IMO they should use their first overall pick to select Byfield C/LW.

Oh then I definitely agree. If we could get Lafreniere/Byfield/Raymond and then trade up to draft Askarov, that’d be a great draft.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

As a thought exercise, what do you think Pittsburgh would realistically take to part with Matt Murray who will be 26 and a RFA next offseason? Is it less than the price of our pick or what it would take to to get the SJ pick into the top 10?

A top 10 pick should hold the value of close to a young #1D, #1C, PPG winger in a draft like this. Don't think it makes sense value wise to pay that. If the SJ pick was in the 6-10 range and we got Byfield already, I'd entertain the thought but we have far greater needs at forward to pass on some of the forwards available.

 

[stempniaksen]

Wiesblatt...wasn't that supposed to be some sort of family prodigy a few years ago? Kinda like the Hughes brothers where all of the kids were supposedly super-special several years before their draft year?

One in the same.

Orca, Ocean, Ozzy and Oasiz.

First two don't seem to have any kind of future in pro hockey where as the younger two look like they at least have a shot.

Ozzy looked decent when I caught PA games last year, but he was never one of the better players on the ice at any point.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

As a thought exercise, what do you think Pittsburgh would realistically take to part with Matt Murray who will be 26 and a RFA next offseason? Is it less than the price of our pick or what it would take to to get the SJ pick into the top 10?

A top 10 pick should hold the value of close to a young #1D, #1C, PPG winger in a draft like this. Don't think it makes sense value wise to pay that. If the SJ pick was in the 6-10 range and we got Byfield already, I'd entertain the thought but we have far greater needs at forward to pass on some of the forwards available.

I think it is best that we just draft players instead of trading picks away. As long as this organization does its job in proper scouting evaluation they will have more than enough good players. We can then consider packaging together a number of decent prospects for any trade.

Also who are you looking to target by trading the San Jose pick into the top ten?