NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I think it is best that we just draft players instead of trading picks away. As long as this organization does its job in proper scouting evaluation they will have more than enough good players. We can then consider packaging together a number of decent prospects for any trade.

Also who are you looking to target by trading the San Jose pick into the top ten?

My post was strictly speaking in terms of drafting goalies in the top 10. I wouldn't do it in almost all situations. Kind of like going RB at the NFL draft with a top pick. The value just isn't there to an organization that is drafting in that range.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

My post was strictly speaking in terms of drafting goalies in the top 10. I wouldn't do it in almost all situations. Kind of like going RB at the NFL draft with a top pick. The value just isn't there to an organization that is drafting in that range.

Agreed. I think the argument is even stronger given the types of forwards and defensemen available in this draft. I could see justification for taking a risk on a top tier goalie prospect in a weaker draft with a top ten pick but in a draft like this there is simply too much talent we would be passing up on.

 

[DJB]

My post was strictly speaking in terms of drafting goalies in the top 10. I wouldn't do it in almost all situations. Kind of like going RB at the NFL draft with a top pick. The value just isn't there to an organization that is drafting in that range.

That could be true in many cases but what about Carey Price, MAF?

I'd say that they are the Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott of the NFL draft world.

Who's to say that the Russian kid isn't part of that elite NFL group?

 

[Larionov]

The development curve for goalies is very different than players, so it's very hard to evaluate a kid's potential at 17. You have as good a chance as drafting a franchise goalie in the 2nd-4th round as you do in the first round, despite what the player looks like in his draft year. Look at the last goalies drafted in the top 30 between 2000 and 2014:

1. Rick Dipietro - 1st overall 2000
2. Brent Krahn - 9th overall 2000
3. Pascal Leclaire - 8th overall 2001
4. Dan Blackburn - 10th overall 2001
5. Jason Bacashihua - 26th overall 2001
6. Adam Munro - 29th overall 2001
7. Kari Lehtonen - 2nd overall 2002
8. Cam Ward - 25th overall 2002
9. Hannu Toivanen - 29th overall 2002
10. Marc-Andre Fleury - 1st overall 2003
11. Al Montoya - 6th overall 2004
12. Marek Schwarz - 12th overall 2004
13. Cory Schneider - 26th overall 2004
14. Carey Price - 5th overall 2005
15. Tuuka Rask - 21st overall 2005
16. Riku Helenius - 15th overall 2006
17. Semyon Varlamov - 23rd overall 2006
18. Leland Irving - 26th overall 2006
19. Chet Pickard - 18th overall 2008
20. Tom McCollum - 30th overall 2008
21. Jack Campbell - 1oth overall 2010
22. Mark Visentin - 27th overall 2010
23. Andre Vasilevskiy - 19th overall 2012
24. Malcolm Subban - 24th overall 2012

So out of 24 first round goalies, 4 became "franchise #1's". A 17% success rate.

If you're picking in the top 10, or top 5, it means you're a bad team with needs everywhere. Taking that big a risk on a goalie isn't smart, since you have to play the odds. A top 10 drafted skater has a much higher chance of being a star than a top 10 drafted goalie.

Now, if you're in the late 20's? You're a good team - so maybe it's worth taking that gamble.

But it won't be for Ottawa.

Late to the party on this. Good list, although I would argue that Vasilevskiy is clearly a franchise #1 now, and Cam Ward was for many years. (Schneider is debatable.) Add those two and the odds improve to 25%, somewhat better but your point still holds.

You make a good point also about drafting in the 20s in the first round. The truth is that the success rate for late first rounders is surprisingly low, both skaters and goalies. So yes, if you really believe in a kid and have organizational need in goal, it shouldn't be forbidden to go after one somewhere in the 20s. In the top ten, though, as you have shown, it is hugely risky...

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

That could be true in many cases but what about Carey Price, MAF?

I'd say that they are the Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott of the NFL draft world.

Who's to say that the Russian kid isn't part of that elite NFL group?

Admittedly, its not the greatest comparison. Goaltending has such a larger impact on a game than the running game in 2019. I'm more coming from the idea that you're getting diminishing returns on spending that pick.

Elliott and Saquon were both considered to be better prospects than Goff or Mayfield in their respective drafts. The Rams and Browns are far ahead of the Cowboys and Giants because they have those good players in high value positions at QB. Hell, if the Cowboys had taken Jalen Ramsay instead of Elliott then went with Derrick Henry in the 2nd round, they'd be a better team imo.

Just don't think I'm taking a goalie if there's prospects like the top 5-6 guys in this draft on the board. Our need for high end forwards far outweighs our goaltending needs.

I mean, if all your scouts are convinced the guy is going to be the next Roy/Hasek go ahead and take him first overall, for all I care. Just doubt anyone will feel confident to predict that at such a wildcard position.

 

[Sweatred]

I can’t fathom the Sens turning away from
one of the top 5 forwards to select a Russian goalie. We don’t even have a spot for another goalie prospect to play other then Brampton so taking one could mean giving up on one of the top 4 we currently have like Mandolese (I am assuming Hog graduates in 2020).

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

Hopefully we get byfield kids unreal

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

To be honest, I don't think I'd want this organization to be the type that absolutely needs a generational goalie to compete. A team that's only capable of scoring one or two goals a night and spend the rest of the game shutting everything down gets really boring after awhile.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Cross Hanas is another player worth keeping an eye on.
Cross Hanas at eliteprospects.com

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Sweatred]

Laf/By and Rossi would make for a great first round draft .... we need one.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Laf/By and Rossi would make for a great first round draft .... we need one.

I wish there was a season simulation button for this year so we can just get to the draft already...

 

[Crosside]

More I think about it I want Ottawa pick Askarov even if we win the lotery. Yesterday was is first game with the farm team of the Ska and have a shutout. After we can trade the San Jose pick ++ for move up for Lapierre or Perfetti

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Some players to keep an eye on:

First Round
Alexis Lafreniere (LW, QMJHL), Quinton Byfield (C, OHL), Lucas Raymond (LW/RW, SUPERELIT), Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, SUPERELIT), Cole Perfetti (C, OHL), Jamie Drysdale (D, OHL), Hendrix Lapierre (C, QMJHL), Dylan Holloway (F, NCAA), Marco Rossi (C, OHL), Jacob Perreault (C, OHL), Theo Rochette (C, QMJHL)

Second Round
Antonio Stranges (C, OHL), Jan Mysak (C, CZECH), Jake Neighbours (LW, WHL), Luke Tuch (LW, NCAA), Connor Zary (C, WHL), Justin Sourdiff (C, WHL), Jaromir Pytlik (C, OHL),

Third Round and Subsequent Rounds
Cross Hanas (LW, WHL), Brendan Brisson (F, USHS-PREP), John-Jason Peterka (F, DEL), Stephen Halliday (LW, USHL), Andrei Bakanov (F, NCAA), Michal Gut (F, WHL), Carter Savoie (LW AJHL), Ozzy Wiesblatt (RW, WHL), Martin Chromiak (LW, SLOVAKIA)

Overagers (2nd/3rd Year Eligible)
Billy Constantinou (D, OHL), Xavier Simoneau (C, QMJHL), Logan Barlage (C, WHL), Luke Toporowski (LW, WHL), Tag Bertuzzi (C, OHL), Danil Antropov (RW, OHL), Jackson Van De Leest (D, WHL)


Edit: Added Dylan Holloway, Martin Chromiak

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Some players to keep an eye on:

First Round
Alexis Lafreniere (LW, QMJHL), Quinton Byfield (C, OHL), Lucas Raymond (LW/RW, SUPERELIT), Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, SUPERELIT), Cole Perfetti (C, OHL), Jamie Drysdale (D, OHL), Hendrix Lapierre (C, QMJHL), Marco Rossi (C, OHL), Jacob Perreault (C, OHL), Theo Rochette (C, QMJHL)

Second Round
Antonio Stranges (C, OHL), Jan Mysak (C, CZECH), Jake Neighbours (LW, WHL), Luke Tuch (LW, NCAA), Connor Zary (C, WHL), Justin Sourdiff (C, WHL), Jaromir Pytlik (C, OHL),

Third Round and Subsequent Rounds
Cross Hanas (LW, WHL), Brendan Brisson (F, USHS-PREP), John-Jason Peterka (F, DEL), Stephen Halliday (LW, USHL), Andrei Bakanov (F, NCAA), Michal Gut (F, WHL), Carter Savoie (LW AJHL), Ozzy Wiesblatt (RW, WHL)

I'd add Dylan Holloway as a player to watch in the R1 group. He won't top 5 but someone to watch.

 

[BondraTime]

More I think about it I want Ottawa pick Askarov even if we win the lotery. Yesterday was is first game with the farm team of the Ska and have a no goal game. After we can trade the San Jose pick ++ for move up for Lapierre or Perfetti

Or take the absolute studs in Laf or Byfield.

Teams win the cup with superstar players.

You can win cups with great/good non lottery goalies. Quick, Crawford, Binnington, Niemi, Ward, Thomas, Murray, Osgood, Boulin-Wall, Holtby

The only guys to win the cup as “franchise” goalies in the past 20 years are Roy, Hasek and Brodeur, (Fleury went 1st but I’d never consider him a franchise goalie), but franchise Centers, D and wingers are on nearly every cup winning team. Not that it has anything to do with my position, but Brodeur went the highest in the draft at 20th overall.

Tampa had Lecavieler (1st), St. Louis, and Richards.

Carolina had Staal (2nd) and Ward

Hawks had Kane (1st) Toews (3rd) Hossa, Keith

Wings had Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg

Blues had O’Rielly, Tarasenko, Schenn (5th), Pietrangelo (5th)

Pens had Crosby (1st), Malkin (2nd), Staal (3rd), Kessel (5th) and Fleury (1st). Also won with Fleury as the backup.

Bruins had Chara, Bergeron, Seguin (rookie, 2nd).

Kings had Doughty (2nd), Kopitar, Richards, Carter, Gaborik

Roy had Sakic, Forsberg, Hejduk, Foote, Bourque.

Caps had Ovechkin (1st), Backstrom (4th), Kuznetsov, Carlson. Holtby wasn’t even their starter heading into the playoffs.

All cup winning teams are good, obviously. They all get good goaltending, obviously. The biggest thing they have in common is the star, franchise power in their players, while goaltending is just a plus it seems the can get wherever.

Pittsburgh won with both Fleury and Murray, they were interchangeable, Chicago won with Niemi and Crawford, they were interchangeable. Take out Kane/Toews and Malkin/Crosby, not so interchangeable.

It’s much, much, much easier to find cup caliber goaltending than it is to find cup caliber players.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I'd add Dylan Holloway as a player to watch in the R1 group. He won't top 5 but someone to watch.

Good point. I wanted to start putting a list together of players to keep an eye on and look for players under the radar and that could be available in later rounds. If you find any other players that look interesting, even those that will be available in later rounds, let me know and I will update the list.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Or take the absolute studs in Laf or Byfield.

Teams win the cup with superstar players.

You can win cups with great/good non lottery goalies. Quick, Crawford, Binnington, Niemi, Ward, Thomas, Murray, Osgood, Boulin-Wall, Holtby

The only guys to win the cup as “franchise” goalies in the past 20 years are Roy, Hasek and Brodeur, (Fleury went 1st but I’d never consider him a franchise goalie), but franchise Centers, D and wingers are on nearly every cup winning team. Not that it has anything to do with my position, but Brodeur went the highest in the draft at 20th overall.

Tampa had Lecavieler (1st), St. Louis, and Richards.

Carolina had Staal (2nd) and Ward

Hawks had Kane (1st) Toews (3rd) Hossa, Keith

Wings had Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg

Blues had O’Rielly, Tarasenko, Schenn (5th), Pietrangelo (5th)

Pens had Crosby (1st), Malkin (2nd), Staal (3rd), Kessel (5th) and Fleury (1st). Also won with Fleury as the backup.

Bruins had Chara, Bergeron, Seguin (rookie, 2nd).

Kings had Doughty (2nd), Kopitar, Richards, Carter, Gaborik

Roy had Sakic, Forsberg, Hejduk, Foote, Bourque.

Caps had Ovechkin (1st), Backstrom (4th), Kuznetsov, Carlson. Holtby wasn’t even their starter heading into the playoffs.

All cup winning teams are good, obviously. They all get good goaltending, obviously. The biggest thing they have in common is the star, franchise power in their players, while goaltending is just a plus it seems the can get wherever.

Pittsburgh won with both Fleury and Murray, they were interchangeable, Chicago won with Niemi and Crawford, they were interchangeable. Take out Kane/Toews and Malkin/Crosby, not so interchangeable.

It’s much, much, much easier to find cup caliber goaltending than it is to find cup caliber players.

Another thing I would add to this is that a particular issue with drafting Askarov is where he is expected to get drafted and what we will be forced to pass up on. Askarov is currently projected to be a top ten pick, so in order to have a chance to draft him The Sens would either have to use their top pick, or end up with two top ten picks either by the draft lottery or by trading up. Like you said I don't see the point is passing on Byfield or Lafreniere for Askarov. Now if the San Jose pick either ended up in the top ten or we traded it to get into the top ten now the debate becomes Askarov or one of Raymond, Holtz, Perfetti, Lapierre, Drysdale or whoever else ends up in the top ten. I am not sure what your thoughts are but I am not sure which of those I would pass up on to take Askarov.

So to your point about the importance of having superstar skaters in the hypothetical of having a chance to draft Askarov we would likely be passing up on the chance to acquire two superstar skaters. Given our current goal tending depth and our lack of first line forward prospects I think given the chance we take two skaters.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Good point. I wanted to start putting a list together of players to keep an eye on and look for players under the radar and that could be available in later rounds. If you find any other players that look interesting, even those that will be available in later rounds, let me know and I will update the list.

Martin Chromiak (16 y/o) August birth date, a Slovac forward is a later one (maybe 3rd round ranked now) to keep an eye on. He should be playing in the men's league this year . He put up 46 pts in 39 games last year in the U20 league.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Martin Chromiak (16 y/o) August birth date, a Slovac forward is a later one (maybe 3rd round ranked now) to keep an eye on. He should be playing in the men's league this year . He put up 46 pts in 39 games last year in the U20 league.

I just looked up his stats. He seems like a good prospect with some good skill. I will add him to the list.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I just looked up his stats. He seems like a good prospect with some good skill. I will add him to the list.

He played for Slovakia in the 2018 Hlinka as well. That's where he first caught my eye.

 

[Deku]

One in the same.

Orca, Ocean, Ozzy and Oasiz.

First two don't seem to have any kind of future in pro hockey where as the younger two look like they at least have a shot.

Ozzy looked decent when I caught PA games last year, but he was never one of the better players on the ice at any point.

I was very confused by this post at first until I googled it and found out these kids were actually named Orca, Ocean, and Oasiz

 

[Six Assets]

how does Lafreniere compare to former 1st overall picks/top picks (Hughes, Svechnikov, Hischier, Matthews, Laine, Eichel)?