NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - Part VII

[Hale The Villain]

If the 24.5% cumulative chance of winning #1 belonging to picks 8-15 were split between the top 7 teams by their current percentage share, the odds would look roughly like this:

DET: 24.5%
OTT: 17.9%
SJ: 15.2%
LA: 12.6%
ANA: 11.3%
NJ: 9.9%
BUF: 8.6%

Would give us a 1/3 chance of winning Lafreniere, where's right now it's 1/4.

I just can't see why the majority of GMs wouldn't prefer for the bottom 5 or 7 teams to have the shot at the top 3 players available in the draft.
Obviously, the 5 or 7 bottom feeders would like this, and if I am in the 16 teams that would normally make the playoffs, I have no shot at them anyways, but would really not want to see teams with a decent roster but out of the playoffs land star players in the lottery. Imagine Lafreniere going to Winnipeg, NYR or Chicago? Could send them to some dominant years very soon.

If the league determines the 24 playoff teams using the top 12 per conference method, as Brooks suggested, that would mean the draft order would remain the same and would probably mean teams like the Jets, Rangers and Hawks wouldn't have a chance at winning the lottery if they were in the playoffs, assuming the lottery would be for only non-playoff teams.

While it's not as good as getting 3rd/4th guaranteed, the same kind of lottery system as we have now with the 8-15 teams' odds split between the bottom 7 teams would probably help our chances of winning Lafreniere quite a bit. Also should help the likelihood of keeping both picks in the top 5.

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[Crosside]

If he wanted Stutzle, he'd want a June draft, since it would almost certainly guarantee him Stutzle through the 2nd (or 1st) pick.

If he has Stutzle ahead of Lafreniere, he will take Stutzle at 1. He won't trade down.

That’s the problem he s shy to not take Lafrenière with his first. Apparently he have market his first already if he win the lottery

 

[BondraTime]

That’s the problem he s shy to not take Lafrenière with his first. Apparently he have market his first already if he win the lottery

There is very little percent chance that’s the case

 

[Crosside]

There is very little percent chance that’s the case

Will see

 

[danielpalfredsson]

That’s the problem he s shy to not take Lafrenière with his first. Apparently he have market his first already if he win the lottery

Teams don't behave that way. They take their BPA.

Kotkaniemi was off the board for Montreal. Dubois for Columbus. Even way back, Hickey for Los Angeles.

Teams don't trade back, because it isn't rational. If Stutzle is the number one ranked prospect for Detroit, even if it goes against conventional rankings, they can't move back and be assured that he will still be around. Even if they move to number 2, how do they know that Ottawa (or whoever) isn't playing them?

They can't request a condition that Ottawa won't take Stutzle, because then Ottawa knows that is who Detroit wants at number 1, and either doesn't trade with Detroit, or becomes much less aggressive to trade.

If Yzerman doesn't like a June draft, it is because he knows Detroit will be in a prime position to acquire star talent via trade. They will have the 32nd pick, and then four more picks in the top 90 of the draft. With the cap staying flat, Detroit will be in a position to add a difference maker or two from a team with cap issues. If the draft is in June, they cannot do that. Trading later on then becomes more expensive because it will be less efficient. The 32nd overall pick is a much more universal and valuable asset than whoever Detroit takes at 32nd because other teams Detroit trade with might not have had the same prospect ranked at 32 or higher. That is why a June draft is bad for Detroit and Ottawa.

edit: also didn't include the most obvious example, which is Detroit taking Seider at 6 last year, rather than trading down to where he was ranked by consensus. Even going off the board, there's a chance a player won't be available later, so if a team has someone as the BPA, unless they have multiple similar players on the same tier, they won't trade down.

 

[BondraTime]

Will see

We will, but I’m more than sure

danielpalfredsson did a good job explaining why

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

2019 NHL draft with CSS rankings.
I highlighted a few that struck me as particularly good deals where they went and it was out in front of every team

 

[NHL Dude 120]

Just a question ive seen it mentioned that a Chabot-Drysdle pairing would be a bad top pairing which got me wondering what kind of D-men does the team need? are we looking at finding Chabot's Methot or more of a 2 way Dmen?

Not looking for names but rather what type of D-men

 

[ijif]

Just a question ive seen it mentioned that a Chabot-Drysdle pairing would be a bad top pairing which got me wondering what kind of D-men does the team need? are we looking at finding Chabot's Methot or more of a 2 way Dmen?

Not looking for names but rather what type of D-men

No type, just good players.

 

[DrSense]

Just a question ive seen it mentioned that a Chabot-Drysdle pairing would be a bad top pairing which got me wondering what kind of D-men does the team need? are we looking at finding Chabot's Methot or more of a 2 way Dmen?

Not looking for names but rather what type of D-men

There is really no magic formula.

Karlsson won a Norris with Methot. Keith was paired with Seabrooke during his best years, and Muzzin with Doughty in his Norris season, so I suppose you could look at someone in that realm. If that were the formula, a guy like Jaros or Zub might fit the bill with Chabot longer term.

But Karlsson also won the Norris paired with Kuba, Giordano won the Norris with TJ Brodie and Josi is paired with Ellis. You can put a few more skilled guys together to create a formidable puck possession duo. So in that case, Chabot could get paired with a Drysdale, JBD, Thomson, or even Branstrom (if Smith let him play his preferred side).

Lots of options, and you certainly don't want to start sweating pairings if you're considering drafting Drysdale. If they love him and see him as the best player available, then take him and we'll figure it out in the years ahead.

 

[NHL Dude 120]

Thanks, I'm starting to learn about the 2021 draft prospects as that draft is loaded with D-men which has made me more likely to be fine with a Byfield-Stutuzle scoop.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

So we went from part VI to part 6 eh?

 

[bert]

That’s the problem he s shy to not take Lafrenière with his first. Apparently he have market his first already if he win the lottery

That doesnt make any sense he runs the risk of picking 4th with the other lotto rules.

 

[NHL Dude 120]

From a Sens POV playoffs are irrelevant as far as i'm concerned.

 

[Six Assets]

is lafreniere the best prospect out of the Q since crosby?

 

[Speatleysson]

is lafreniere the best prospect out of the Q since crosby?

Nathan McKinnon

 

[Sweatred]

That’s the problem he s shy to not take Lafrenière with his first. Apparently he have market his first already if he win the lottery

I can get my head around a GM not wanting LAF first but having a hard time passing on the “consensus” pick.

Stutzle was dominate at the WJC on a weak team and I can see a case for someone to think he may be better then LAF. It goes against the grain, but settling for 2 is sometimes easier than picking one. Ask Daigle.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Just a question ive seen it mentioned that a Chabot-Drysdle pairing would be a bad top pairing which got me wondering what kind of D-men does the team need? are we looking at finding Chabot's Methot or more of a 2 way Dmen?

Not looking for names but rather what type of D-men

They don't need to be a pairing though. If Drysdale ends up as a #1 D, they could anchor two different pairings.

Not trying to invalidate your question, but if Drysdale is the BPA, chemistry with Chabot doesn't have to be a deal breaker.

 

[NHL Dude 120]

That's fine, I guess Im looking at it from a finding the ying to Chabot's yang if you get my drift.

Personally for D-men id rather focus on keeping possession as possession is king(although that's more my tiki taka interest coming up)

 

[dumbdick]

Not looking for names but rather what type of D-men

Drysdalian

 

[Super Cake]

In order to ensure the Sens get a top 3 pick, i think we need a human sacrifice. Anyone want to volunteer?

 

[JungleBeat]

Grans has a serious case to being the second - third dman being drafted.

 

[harrisb]

I can get my head around a GM not wanting LAF first but having a hard time passing on the “consensus” pick.

Stutzle was dominate at the WJC on a weak team and I can see a case for someone to think he may be better then LAF. It goes against the grain, but setting for 2 is sometimes easier than picking one. Ask Daigle.

It tends to be easier to stand out when you are far and away the best player on your team and rolled out in every situation. Personally I want Laf as priority however getting both Byfield and Stutzle would be a fantastic second choice. Byfield being so young in his draft class is intriguing even though I tend to prefer pure skill.

 

[Sweatred]

It tends to be easier to stand out when you are far and away the best player on your team and rolled out in every situation. Personally I want Laf as priority however getting both Byfield and Stutzle would be a fantastic second choice. Byfield being so young in his draft class is intriguing even though I tend to prefer pure skill.

I agree but I don’t think that discounts the possibility that YZERMAN may be debating that option.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

So we went from part VI to part 6 eh?

Lol... oops!