Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft 1st Overall Pick, Alexis Lafreniere, LW
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Amazing Kreiderman
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- Apr 11, 2011
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Sorry, for some reason I mixed those up. I expect them to take a small step forward
Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2011
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Maximus
Registered User
All good AK...just don't do it again...lol
The oilers have too chosen first in weak drafts, wrong place at the wrong moment, but they are still a bad team even with mcdavid and draistl. That even worse.
TheBloodyNine
Pure Bred Soviet Savage
laffy will have 50-60 points in his first year. i hope trouba is ready, we need this big boy. i really dont like our D group. too much of similar guys... Forwards is an ok for me. lack of phisicality and good hockey players on the fourth maybe. Ryan strome, brendan lemieux, gi suepe are expendable. i want better hockey player than that at these positions.
unfortunately our prospects pools are not deep enough to get good defensmen
fun fact laffy and k andré miller who gave him the puck for his goal in the Wcj will be part of the same team.
as for goalies ive seen some good flash from georgiev this year. the other one i really dont know. but he seems good too. they need to play.
unfortunately our prospects pools are not deep enough to get good defensmen
fun fact laffy and k andré miller who gave him the puck for his goal in the Wcj will be part of the same team.
as for goalies ive seen some good flash from georgiev this year. the other one i really dont know. but he seems good too. they need to play.
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SA16
Sixstring
yakupov could have been developed so much better. their lack of vision with their defense. i dont know what happenned there, there was so much potential.
pld459666
Registered User
Edge
Kris King's Ghost
Oh this is an interesting and fun game to play. I'll give it a go as well.
2019 Panarin > 2020 Panarin
2019 Zibanejad > 2020 Zibanejad
2019 Buchnevich < 2019 Buchnevich
2019 Kakko << 2020 Kakko
2019 Strome > 2020 Strome
2019 Kreider = 2020 Kreider
2019 Chytil < 2020 Chytil
2019 Howden < 2020 Howden
2019 Lemieux = 2020 Lemieux
2019 Gauthier = 2020 Gauthier
2019 Fast >> Replacement
2019 DiGiuseppe <<< 2020 Lafreniere
2019 Trouba << 2020 Trouba
2019 Skjei > Replacement
2019 Staal = 2020 Johnson
2019 Fox < 2020 Fox
2019 DeAngelo > 2020 DeAngelo
2019 Lindgren < 2020 Lindgren
2019 Smith = 2020 Smith
2019 goalie tandem << 2020 goalie tandem
Overall, I think the addition of Lafreniere, the progrss of Kakko and gains by Chytil and Howden will make for a strong and more balanced forward corps.
On defense I think we're more or less going to be about the same. I expect Fox to take a modest step forward, ADA a slight step back, Lindgren to be slightly better, Trouba to be more comfortable, and Staal/Johnson to be a wash. Smith will be what he was last year. I think Skjei's short term replacement will be less than what we got from Skjei last season.
In goal, I think we'll have more stability and more flow, though I think there will be some bumps in the road along the way.
I think this team be in the hunt for one of the lower playoff seeds.
- Jul 20, 2005
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AL's point total will be determined by a bunch of stuff, how quickly he adjusts to the NHL, ES role and TOI, ES line mates, PP role and TOI, etc.
Best guess, for me anyway, is he plays with Zibanejad. Aside from the fact that I think that is the best fit, I also don't see Panarin and Strome being separated or Quinn pairing him with another youngster like Chytil. And I dont see him playing outside the top 9 long, if at all. Best guess for PP is that he starts on the 2nd unit and works his way up to the 1st unit by mid-season.
Just looking quickly at what other players in his position have done (top pick, teenager) it looks like something in the mid 30's to low 40s points at ES is a reasonable expectation for a full 82 game season. Half a season on the top PP unit and half on the 2nd unit would probably net him points in the teens. So 45-55 total points per full 82, in this scenario, seems about right.
Now, if he adjust quickly, plays PP1 from the jump and both him and Zibs stay healthy and have chemistry it's not too crazy to think he might end up in the high 40s in ES points with another ~20 on the PP. That would put him in the 60-70 point range.
But its also possible that he struggles, has issues staying healthy or finds himself in less than optimal situations at ES and a full season on PP2 or less. In that case you are looking at possibly ES points in the 20's and PP points in the single digits or low double digits. Which means the 30-40 points range for a full season. Or less.
So yeah, for me I'd probably expect about 50 points, give or take, in an 82 game rookie season. And if I had to choose between the other two scenarios, I would choose the over. I dont see him having the same issues Kakko had (foot speed, exhaustion, having Howden as his center the plurality of the time) and he's just a really talented offensive player who should play on a talented offensive team. But time will tell.
Best guess, for me anyway, is he plays with Zibanejad. Aside from the fact that I think that is the best fit, I also don't see Panarin and Strome being separated or Quinn pairing him with another youngster like Chytil. And I dont see him playing outside the top 9 long, if at all. Best guess for PP is that he starts on the 2nd unit and works his way up to the 1st unit by mid-season.
Just looking quickly at what other players in his position have done (top pick, teenager) it looks like something in the mid 30's to low 40s points at ES is a reasonable expectation for a full 82 game season. Half a season on the top PP unit and half on the 2nd unit would probably net him points in the teens. So 45-55 total points per full 82, in this scenario, seems about right.
Now, if he adjust quickly, plays PP1 from the jump and both him and Zibs stay healthy and have chemistry it's not too crazy to think he might end up in the high 40s in ES points with another ~20 on the PP. That would put him in the 60-70 point range.
But its also possible that he struggles, has issues staying healthy or finds himself in less than optimal situations at ES and a full season on PP2 or less. In that case you are looking at possibly ES points in the 20's and PP points in the single digits or low double digits. Which means the 30-40 points range for a full season. Or less.
So yeah, for me I'd probably expect about 50 points, give or take, in an 82 game rookie season. And if I had to choose between the other two scenarios, I would choose the over. I dont see him having the same issues Kakko had (foot speed, exhaustion, having Howden as his center the plurality of the time) and he's just a really talented offensive player who should play on a talented offensive team. But time will tell.
- Jan 7, 2013
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This is the problem. Our offense last year was good enough to compete. Our defense is why we missed the playoffs. Laf doesn’t help our issues. Our D personnel is still mediocre, and the fact our new D coach vouched for Jack Johnson is terribly troubling.
Amazing Kreiderman
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- Apr 11, 2011
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I struggle to see it as well. I have high hopes for LA and I'm confident that Kakko will see a big improvement--particularly on the play-driving side of things where he was really bad.
But I also think Fox is due a sophomore slump, and if he struggles, Lindgren will too. I'm most confident in DeAngelo to keep his pace, though he won't probably score goals at the same clip. Trouba might improve, but I don't think he'll be much better in a similar role and with similarly inept partners. Signing Johnson effectively negated any gains of losing Staal...
Once again it seems to me like it all hinges on the goalies. And I wonder just how good Shesterkin will be. I think people really undervalue the goaltending we got all of last season between Hank and Georgiev. They were never the problem and the reason we weren't in the basement from the get-go. Shesterkin was great too, but the biggest jolt we got at the end of the year was Zibanejad ripping over a goal a game for a quarter season.
LW: Panarin, Kreider, Lafreniere, Lemieux
RW: Buchnevich, Kakko, Gauthier, maybe Kravstov, maybe Strome
C: Zibanejad, Strome, Chytil, Howden
RD: Trouba, Fox, DeAngelo
LD: Lindgren, Johnson, Smith
G: Shesterkin, Georgiev
On paper we’re stronger everywhere but center and LD, which is what’s been talked about since before the bubble play even began. Trouba should be more comfortable and have a better year. Fox with more experience and DeAngelo, even if his points are down a bit should be right on par. Goaltending should be much better. Left wing is stacked. RW is alright, especially if Kakko takes a step or Kravstov makes the team. Center is rough, but if Chytil takes a step or Strome maintains his chemistry with Panarin it’s passable for another year. The left side of the defense is absolutely abysmal. One player who would be a #5/6 on a contender and two who are waiver fodder.
RW: Buchnevich, Kakko, Gauthier, maybe Kravstov, maybe Strome
C: Zibanejad, Strome, Chytil, Howden
RD: Trouba, Fox, DeAngelo
LD: Lindgren, Johnson, Smith
G: Shesterkin, Georgiev
On paper we’re stronger everywhere but center and LD, which is what’s been talked about since before the bubble play even began. Trouba should be more comfortable and have a better year. Fox with more experience and DeAngelo, even if his points are down a bit should be right on par. Goaltending should be much better. Left wing is stacked. RW is alright, especially if Kakko takes a step or Kravstov makes the team. Center is rough, but if Chytil takes a step or Strome maintains his chemistry with Panarin it’s passable for another year. The left side of the defense is absolutely abysmal. One player who would be a #5/6 on a contender and two who are waiver fodder.
Agreed. There's a mountain of question marks and practically no room for error.
We were en route to missing the playoffs last season and that was with a couple of career years sprinkled in. We're left banking on a lot of young guys improving BIG TIME and others surprising.
It's shades of 2013 when we needed Kreider to step in an be an impact player and it just...didn't happen.
I'll be happy to be proven wrong, but I just don't see it.
The good news is, I think the organization is... I don’t want to say happy, as obviously they want to compete and gain experience... content, maybe, with missing the playoffs one more time, getting another lotto ticket, assessing Chytil in a bigger role, assessing what to do with Buch, assessing what to do with Tony (and hoping he has another big year so buyers can’t say he was a one hit wonder), likewise hoping Strome has another big year with Panarin so we can sell him at the TDL. I think they expect Miller/Hajek/Reunanen to grab a spot by season’s end. They’ll look to address the holes next summer when money is less tight.
I don't know how you can call RW 'alright'. You have one player on that list that you can say plays hockey at an NHL level.
I don't disagree. The org has given pretty much no indication that this rebuild is done with.
The past few weeks you've seen some people pencilling us in for the playoffs and others melting down that we didn't do enough in free agency to push us to that point. Just trying to keep the reality of the situation in check.
Because I’m not just looking at this year. We’re not contending. We’re probably expecting to be a bubble team, in the mix but probably outside of the playoffs. As long as those players show some form of progress (which doesn’t mean Kakko morphing into a 65 point winger in one off season), there’s players on the RW who all have a future here. I’ll say with confidence, when we struggle this year or when we miss the playoffs, no one will be saying “our offense was the problem! If we’d just had better RWs!” Defense is clearly the downfall of this roster. A defensive center and an entire left side.
2019 Panarin > 2020 Panarin
2019 Zibanejad = 2020 Zibanejad
2019 Buchnevich = 2019 Buchnevich
2019 Kakko << 2020 Kakko
2019 Strome > 2020 Strome
2019 Kreider = 2020 Kreider
2019 Chytil < 2020 Chytil
2019 Howden < 2020 Howden
2019 Lemieux = 2020 Lemieux
2019 Gauthier < 2020 Gauthier
2019 Fast >> Replacement
2019 DiGiuseppe << 2020 Lafreniere
2019 Trouba < 2020 Trouba
2019 Staal = 2020 Johnson
2019 Fox < 2020 Fox
2019 DeAngelo = 2020 DeAngelo
2019 Lindgren < 2020 Lindgren
2019 Smith = 2020 Smith
2019 goalie tandem << 2020 goalie tandem
Here is my list.
Aside from Alexis, who else graduates up from the prospect pool? Who is the Repalcement that fills the Fast spot?
Baron? Gettinger? Kravtsov?
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