Red Sox/MLB 2020 Hot Stove VIII - Mookie and Price to the Dodgers ( developing )

[Chevalier du Clavier]

Mookie has been forthright with his thoughts on Boston. In August of last year, he said he loves Boston and would like to remain with the Sox; however, he's trying to take emotion out of it and focus on the business aspect of it. Why would he do that? Most likely it's because he's seen things with teammates and opposing players that suggest that when the time comes (i.e. a debilitating injury occurs or his skills decline), he's going to be treated in a business-like fashion. He admits that he was blown away by the $200m offer by the Sox a few off-seasons ago, but he chose to gamble on himself. For his sake, I hope it pays off. A career-altering injury can quickly derail those plans. But if it happens, there will be Sox fans who will breathe a sigh of relief that they didn't sign him to an extension. I'm sure there are fans who thought that Theo was fortunate or lucky that Nomar never was the same player after he was traded to the Cubs.

As it relates to the negotiations, the Sox have gone out of their way to imply that they have tried to retain Mookie by leaking the offers that he has declined to the media. All of them have been for a lot of money. It's easy to look at those numbers from our economic vantage point and ask ourselves, "Wow, how can he decline those?" But, if you look at them from where other players are, was the last offer commiserate with his abilities?

The last offer is exactly what Manny Machado signed for with San Diego. Mookie's numbers clearly are superior to Machado's through the first six seasons of each players' career. (Why six years? Because that's all we have to go on with Mookie to this point.) Are the stats commiserate with two extra years and $120m in more salary? Maybe, maybe not, but the Sox apparently chose to not to engage and offer a counter to Mookie's counter. Obviously, a $120m gap is large and difficult to maneuver around, but we won't know because the Sox apparently didn't do so. Trout's deal is 12 years, $430m. Trout's numbers through his first six seasons clearly are superior to those that Mookie put up during his first six seasons. Are Mookie's numbers worthy of $10m less than Trout? Maybe, maybe not. However, in my opinion, it's a more reasonable starting point than Machado's contract. If the Sox would have started in the range of 10 years, $350m-$375m, we might be seeing a different outcome. Perhaps the Sox don't want to tie up that amount in one player, which is as much their prerogative as it is for Mookie to try to get as much as he possibly can.

Merloni made a good point recently, the Sox likely moved on from Mookie when they signed Bogaerts and Sale to extensions because they didn't want to expand their budget beyond the numbers they targeted for him. Now, what will they do with the flexibility that the impending trade will bring. Will they extend Devers and Beni? Will they extend a promising player they get in the trade? For all of the promise that Verdugo offers (if he's included in the trade), will his back problems linger? From my personal experience, they don't get better. Dewey could never get back on track after his back injury. J.D. Martinez lost time in the field last season to back problems. Granted, Verdugo is younger than both. Still, it might not bode well for his career. Perhaps it's why the Dodgers are reportedly willing to include him in the deal. Some things to ponder.

 

[DKH]

Build a 96 win team for $65M.

Plus pay Mookie $40.

Now you have a 100+ win $105M team.

No

the goal is spend wisely and develop

have flexibility and a deep prospect pool like the Dodgers so you can be in position like the Dodgers are today

the idea that the Red Sox are goinh cheap is comical

downright hilarious

baseball is my number 1 sport - I watch more MLB Network in a day than hockey stuff in a week

they aren’t turning into Tampa payroll

they are attempting to turn into their drafting & development

and I do love hockey and am could take over any franchise and they would be equivalent to the 1980-83 Islanders within 5 years but baseball is my sport

ty

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

No

the goal is spend wisely and develop

have flexibility and a deep prospect pool like the Dodgers so you can be in position like the Dodgers are today

the idea that the Red Sox are goinh cheap is comical

downright hilarious

baseball is my number 1 sport - I watch more MLB Network in a day than hockey stuff in a week

they aren’t turning into Tampa payroll

they are attempting to turn into their drafting & development

and I do love hockey and am could take over any franchise and they would be equivalent to the 1980-83 Islanders within 5 years but baseball is my sport

ty

I agree with everything you wrote, the problem is that Theo and Cherington attempted to turn the Sox into a drafting and development team just like the Dodgers. What stopped them? The same people who just hired Bloom. I hope they have learned their lessons, but I'm not sure that the leopards can change their spots.

 

[Gator Mike]

The last offer is exactly what Manny Machado signed for with San Diego. Mookie's numbers clearly are superior to Machado's through the first six seasons of each players' career. (Why six years? Because that's all we have to go on with Mookie to this point.) Are the stats commiserate with two extra years and $120m in more salary? Maybe, maybe not, but the Sox apparently chose to not to engage and offer a counter to Mookie's counter. Obviously, a $120m gap is large and difficult to maneuver around, but we won't know because the Sox apparently didn't do so. Trout's deal is 12 years, $430m. Trout's numbers through his first six seasons clearly are superior to those that Mookie put up during his first six seasons. Are Mookie's numbers worthy of $10m less than Trout? Maybe, maybe not. However, in my opinion, it's a more reasonable starting point than Machado's contract. If the Sox would have started in the range of 10 years, $350m-$375m, we might be seeing a different outcome. Perhaps the Sox don't want to tie up that amount in one player, which is as much their prerogative as it is for Mookie to try to get as much as he possibly can.

To be fair, the most likely scenario is that the Red Sox made their $300 million offer to Mookie right before his arbitration hearing on January 11th.

Machado signed his deal on February 21st, Bryce Harper signed on February 28th, and Trout signed on March 19th.

The Red Sox were likely trying to buy out two arbitration years, as well.

They likely thought they were setting the market.

 

[KrejciMVP]

I agree with everything you wrote, the problem is that Theo and Cherington attempted to turn the Sox into a drafting and development team just like the Dodgers. What stopped them? The same people who just hired Bloom. I hope they have learned their lessons, but I'm not sure that the leopards can change their spots.

Who doesnt want drafting and development. However they then sign Hanley Panda Price and Porcello to attempt to be competitive. In a division with the Yankees they are forced to spend. If they are irrelevant this year they'll have to spend again

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

To be fair, the most likely scenario is that the Red Sox made their $300 million offer to Mookie right before his arbitration hearing on January 11th.

Machado signed his deal on February 21st, Bryce Harper signed on February 28th, and Trout signed on March 19th.

The Red Sox were likely trying to buy out two arbitration years, as well.

They likely thought they were setting the market.

Good points.

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

Who doesnt want drafting and development. However they then sign Hanley Panda Price and Porcello to attempt to be competitive. In a division with the Yankees they are forced to spend

I initially started to get into this point, but my post already is exceptionally long. I agree they have to spend, but they have a tendency to spend in the wrong areas. This situation with Mookie is a direct result of poor asset management and budget allocations. We can trace this back to several poor decisions, most of which were overreactions or just poor decisions. Panda was a poor decision. Hanley made sense in that particular situation; however, it's not made in a vacuum. What would the Sox look like if they had re-signed Beltre after the 2010 season? They could have moved Youkilis to 1B and not have acquired Gonzalez and signed him to an extension, thus necessitating the trade of Rizzo to the Cubs. Neither Panda nor Hanley would have been signed. If the Sox had not botched the Lester negotiations, they likely wouldn't have signed Price. He didn't live up to the expectations, necessitating the trade of Moncada for Sale. Lester would have been cheaper and more productive than Price. Instead of paying between $30m and $32m a season for Price, they might have allocated some of that money toward another better pitcher other than Porcello. The Sox would have a superior hitter in Moncada at second (albeit his defense is wanting). One decision begets another. The Sox have to spend, but they must do a better job of allocating those resources so they can retain a player of Mookie's caliber.

 

[Smitty93]

I think part of the issue with Mookie is that clearly the MLBPA has been in his ear about his contract. As big as his deal was last year, they were probably annoyed by Trout. Arenado signs for $32.5M, and then Trout just gets $37M a month later, though with four additional years. Trout should probably be making $50M a year.

Trout screwed them so they need Betts to reset the market.

 

[YouTakeTheVan]

No

the goal is spend wisely and develop

have flexibility and a deep prospect pool like the Dodgers so you can be in position like the Dodgers are today

I don't think you follow me, and I'm not super impressed by how many hours of TV you watch?

If the Sox are willing to develop talent properly they have plenty of room to re-sign key players at fair market rates, even if they exceed projected value by a few million. Mookie wouldn't be the only one getting a market level contract, and he doesn't have to be. They're still going to spend ~~ to the luxury cap. They just can't buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and then wonder where all the money and prospects went and blame the players for wanting market value instead of spreadsheet value.

 

[KrejciMVP]

I initially started to get into this point, but my post already is exceptionally long. I agree they have to spend, but they have a tendency to spend in the wrong areas. This situation with Mookie is a direct result of poor asset management and budget allocations. We can trace this back to several poor decisions, most of which were overreactions or just poor decisions. Panda was a poor decision. Hanley made sense in that particular situation; however, it's not made in a vacuum. What would the Sox look like if they had re-signed Beltre after the 2010 season? They could have moved Youkilis to 1B and not have acquired Gonzalez and signed him to an extension, thus necessitating the trade of Rizzo to the Cubs. Neither Panda nor Hanley would have been signed. If the Sox had not botched the Lester negotiations, they likely wouldn't have signed Price. He didn't live up to the expectations, necessitating the trade of Moncada for Sale. Lester would have been cheaper and more productive than Price. Instead of paying between $30m and $32m a season for Price, they might have allocated some of that money toward another better pitcher other than Porcello. The Sox would have a superior hitter in Moncada at second (albeit his defense is wanting). One decision begets another. The Sox have to spend, but they must do a better job of allocating those resources so they can retain a player of Mookie's caliber.

Those 4 players above cost 90 million a year on the payroll and dont come near the impact of a player like Betts. My fear is if they struggle again this year theyll go out and spend again on talent not at the level of a Betts. Keep the stars that are proven here and this will happen less

 

[BigGoalBrad]

I agree with everything you wrote, the problem is that Theo and Cherington attempted to turn the Sox into a drafting and development team just like the Dodgers. What stopped them? The same people who just hired Bloom. I hope they have learned their lessons, but I'm not sure that the leopards can change their spots.

Give me a break they won 2 titles in 5 years with entirely different teams.

They have also put the best soccer team on the field English football has ever seen without dumping a fortune into it what Liverpool is doing is beyond impressive.

Betts wants out because he knows this town will eat him alive if he gets 40 mil a year and then has a .250 15 hr 55 rbi type season.

 

[Gator Mike]

My fear is if they struggle again this year theyll go out and spend again on talent not at the level of a Betts. Keep the stars that are proven here and this will happen less

Both Mookie and JBJ are free agents this year. They would both have to be replaced after the season, so either way, the Red Sox were going to be in the OF market next winter, anyway.

Mookie is earning $27 million this year, and JBJ makes $11 million.

If you resign Mookie to a $35 million/yr contract, you'll still have to spend on a center fielder.

If you trade Mookie for a package of Verdugo and others, when you hit the market next year, you'll already have Verdugo in RF playing for less than a million. Let's say they go get someone like George Springer at $30 million. You could very well argue that they'd be better off with Springer and Verdugo at $31 million than they would be this year with Betts and JBJ at $38 million.

 

[CDJ]

If I’m being completely honest about wanting the Verdugo Trade.... My coworker/buddy is friends with him and I’m going to try and mooch tickets

 

[bbfan419]

RedSox know the Dodgers and Padres are division rivals, so Bloom is smart to be patient, if they both want Betts that bad they will up the offers to try get him and that plays into the Sox favour. SD for example if the best piece they offer is Campusano and we have to take Myers as well, sorry that won't cut it, better look at adding guys like Patino/Abrahams or they will lose out to the Dodgers.

 

[CDJ]

The Padres need to win this year and losing Mookie to the Dodgers pretty much ensures that they have to compete for a wild-card spot. They almost need to offer Patino

 

[Smitty93]

Both Mookie and JBJ are free agents this year. They would both have to be replaced after the season, so either way, the Red Sox were going to be in the OF market next winter, anyway.

Mookie is earning $27 million this year, and JBJ makes $11 million.

If you resign Mookie to a $35 million/yr contract, you'll still have to spend on a center fielder.

If you trade Mookie for a package of Verdugo and others, when you hit the market next year, you'll already have Verdugo in RF playing for less than a million. Let's say they go get someone like George Springer at $30 million. You could very well argue that they'd be better off with Springer and Verdugo at $31 million than they would be this year with Betts and JBJ at $38 million.

Maybe this is just me, but the idea of paying a 31 year old George Springer $30 million versus paying Betts whatever he will get doesn't exactly excite me all that much.

 

[Gator Mike]

Maybe this is just me, but the idea of paying a 31 year old George Springer $30 million versus paying Betts whatever he will get doesn't exactly excite me all that much.

I was just picking a name and a number at random.

 

[KrejciMVP]

Maybe this is just me, but the idea of paying a 31 year old George Springer $30 million versus paying Betts whatever he will get doesn't exactly excite me all that much.

Its exactly the reactionary move I worry about and admission they messed up not signing betts.

 

[DKH]

I don't think you follow me, and I'm not super impressed by how many hours of TV you watch?

If the Sox are willing to develop talent properly they have plenty of room to re-sign key players at fair market rates, even if they exceed projected value by a few million. Mookie wouldn't be the only one getting a market level contract, and he doesn't have to be. They're still going to spend ~~ to the luxury cap. They just can't buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and then wonder where all the money and prospects went and blame the players for wanting market value instead of spreadsheet value.

I won’t be following you

 

[CDJ]

Signing Springer for 5 years at $5-10 mill a year less than Mookie isn’t a reactionary move at all, I’d actually argue it’s very calculated. You don’t have to worry about a 12 yr contract with the highest AAV in the league but you still get a highly productive star player with a swing that should play well in Fenway. Back 2 years will probably not be worth it but it’s better than having the back 6 years of a deal not being worth it.

 

[DKH]

 

[Smitty93]

I was just picking a name and a number at random.

Oh, I think it's a good name to pick out because I could see the Red Sox doing it. Could easily see them justifying it as a local guy who grew up a Red Sox fan. My point was that I think I'd rather just pay Mookie whatever he's going to get. I think that's the concern with all of this. Bloom's not going to operate the same way they have been for years, so maybe he won't just go out and immediately blow their savings on another player, but it's hard to think that this ownership group won't meddle when they've done it so much in the past.

 

[CDJ]

Lakins just got claimed by the Orioles after being cut loose by the cubs shortly after they got him from us.

Trevor Kelley continues to bounce around. He’s not a major league arm imo, he looked pretty bad in Boston

 

[KrejciMVP]

Who is the state run media?

 

[LSCII]

Who is the state run media?

Boston Globe. Henry owns both the Sox and the paper. Whenever he has an agenda, the Globe surprisingly comes out with stories that originate from high ranking, unnamed sources within the Sox front office in support of said agenda. Pretty funny given that the CHB works for them and still tweeted that. He's not wrong either. I mean, when you consider that they were okay paying David Price $31 mill per year, but haven't offered even that to Betts, it's pretty laughable.