Speculation: 2020 Free Agent D

[jkutswings]

While this summer isn't the list of big splash forwards that happened last year, there's a solid crop of defensemen (assuming they don't get re-signed by then). Off the top of my head, I'd be fine with Detroit using some cap space on any of the following players:

Alex Pietrangelo. EXACTLY the type if guy I think the Wings need, but is having a career year at the perfect time, and I'd be stunned if the Blues don't keep him.

Torey Krug. Plenty of spark, but he's the guy I see some team shelling out MAJOR dollars for, and I don't know that, for this player and where Detroit is right now, if breaking the bank is the right move (in contrast to Pietrangelo, who I WOULD break the bank for).

Sammy Vatanen. An underrated guy, but I'd expect New Jersey to trade him by the deadline.

Jake Muzzin. He'd bring a heavier game to the Wings' blue line...if Toronto doesn't lock him up first.

Chris Tanev. No longer a spring chicken, but some steady play in a second pairing role could help Detroit quite a bit.

Other guys like Barrie and Shattenkirk don't strike me as the right fit for Detroit, but I wouldn't necessarily rule them out, depending on market price.

Did I miss anybody? Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[RedWingsfan55]

Key thing to remember is the expansion draft the following season. Does yzerman want to protect both cholo and DD or not? If not maybe you sign a vatanen or muzzin.

But I wouldn't be surprised at all if he stands pat 1 more year, get another high draft pick. Then goes big after the expansion draft.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Key thing to remember is the expansion draft the following season. Does yzerman want to protect both cholo and DD or not? If not maybe you sign a vatanen or muzzin.

But I wouldn't be surprised at all if he stands pat 1 more year, get another high draft pick. Then goes big after the expansion draft.

I wouldn’t expect any moves different from last summer, I.e. Val and Nemeth. Nothing big. I agree the expansion draft is a big factor.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Krug might be the best PP QB in the league. I think it would age similar to Rafalski where those worried about his size and money would realize right away he is one of the most gifted passers of the puck in the league on the backend.

I would be happy to pay him. Heck at least when PP1 came over the boards next year I would stop covering my eyes.

 

[ThankGord]

Erik Gustafsson could be an option.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I wouldn’t expect any moves different from last summer, I.e. Val and Nemeth. Nothing big. I agree the expansion draft is a big factor.

This is my thinking too. I'm guessing Yzerman maybe goes with a couple of 1 or 2 year stop gaps on D that are in the Nemeth value/price range.

Signing a serviceable yet replaceable 3rd pair guy or two that have a decent salary might be helpful in the expansion draft as Seattle might go for that rather than take a prospect/young guy that Yzerman might have to leave exposed.

 

[Henkka]

Best UFAs by points per game:

RD - Alex Pietrangelo, 30 years old, 0.82 points/game, 24 minutes.
LD - Torey Krug, 29y, 0.74 P/G, 20,5 minutes
RD - Kevin Shattenkirk, 31y, 0.56 P/G, 19 min
RD - Tyson Barrie, 28y, 0.55 P/G, 21 min
RD - Sami Vatanen, 29y, 0.50 P/G, 21,5 min
LD - Erik Gustafsson, 28y, 0.48 P/G, 20,5 min

Next one Mark Borowiecki... 0.35 points per game and others like Muzzin, Brodie, Schultz, Gudas, Tanev are less.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I’m not interested in the top guys. 30+ probly looking for 6-7 year deals. Puke.

sucks because I LOVE me some Pietrangelo. He’ll be 35 when we’re possibly a legit contender.

 

[Henkka]

I LOVE me some Pietrangelo. He’ll be 35 when we’re possibly a legit contender.

It does not go that way. If Pietrangelo will sign, then Yzerman will push more and others will join. Everything will cumulate positively when we get rid of our dead cap weight and use our millions properly + add cheap prospects.

It will be instant success. We will see many of these fast swings with surprise teams in near future. I'm not saying Wings are that, but many other teams will be. Cap is a killer and teams go up and down short-term.

 

[deca guard]

interesting thing about krug is only at 500 games played , could have alot of years left . same with gustafson who'll be at only 250 . and both are lefties we need

 

[ArmChairGM89]

It does not go that way. If Pietrangelo will sign, then Yzerman will push more and others will join. Everything will cumulate positively when we get rid of our dead cap weight and use our millions properly + add cheap prospects.

It will be instant success. We will see many of these fast swings with surprise teams in near future. I'm not saying Wings are that, but many other teams will be. Cap is a killer and teams go up and down short-term.

I don’t want to build that way. I want to surround my core of high talent high potential kids with solid veteran players. I want my cap money available to keep those kids instead of having to make tough decisions because we’ve got 30+ yo players locked in to 6-10 million dollar contracts.

the more your team is built in youth and draft picks, the longer your window for success is open.

sign a bunch of these guys and you’ll be drafting from 10-20 for the next three years. Maybe win a few playoff rounds, and you’re rebuilding again in 5-7 years.

 

[jkutswings]

I wouldn’t expect any moves different from last summer, I.e. Val and Nemeth. Nothing big. I agree the expansion draft is a big factor.

I agree that the expansion draft is definitely a factor. And if they stand pat again at forward, I won't bat an eye. But even if DDK is never injured again, this defense desperately needs at least one capable veteran. It's one thing to be fine with one season of -100 goal differential, but going into next year without a single move on the back end is effectively signing up for more 6-2 type losses, instead of putting a dent in the biggest problem while still being a bottom 3-5 team.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I agree that the expansion draft is definitely a factor. And if they stand pat again at forward, I won't bat an eye. But even if DDK is never injured again, this defense desperately needs at least one capable veteran. It's one thing to be fine with one season of -100 goal differential, but going into next year without a single move on the back end is effectively signing up for more 6-2 type losses, instead of putting a dent in the biggest problem while still being a bottom 3-5 team.

they will have to sign some guys. We’ve got 3-4 guys moving out. No way around it.

edit: on this list I’d be interested in Gustafson and Barrie. The other guys I wouldn’t touch. MAYBE Krug, only because I’m not so sure he gets the size of contract everyone is suspecting.

 

[Winger98]

Krug might be the best PP QB in the league. I think it would age similar to Rafalski where those worried about his size and money would realize right away he is one of the most gifted passers of the puck in the league on the backend.

I would be happy to pay him. Heck at least when PP1 came over the boards next year I would stop covering my eyes.

Yeah, if we're making a significant signing for the blueline, I think Yzerman will go after Krug. I'm expecting something close to what @ShelbyZ is talking about though. I'm expecting someone like Andy Greene and/or Brenden Dillon.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Key thing to remember is the expansion draft the following season. Does yzerman want to protect both cholo and DD or not? If not maybe you sign a vatanen or muzzin.

But I wouldn't be surprised at all if he stands pat 1 more year, get another high draft pick. Then goes big after the expansion draft.

I feel like this is correct. I think Yzerman's plan is fundamentally constructed around three phases:

Phase 1: Clean up your front office - Establish your culture. Yzerman knows that the lifeblood of any organization are the people that are in it. I think he had a crystal clear philosophy for organizational management and wanted people who were going to adhere to that model. We saw massive turnover in the front office, scouting staff, etc. to help him build a new winning tradition. Adding high quality, prime talent to a mismanaged or misaligned front office does the franchise no good because their abilities would go to waste by poor management and you don't have the luxury of building assets and meaningful contracts.

Phase 2: Reseed the farm/Build the Core - Assess current farm system prospects and using your new front office - build a strong, pipe of talent that aligns to your front office's ideal model for a team. Drop/Trade Prospects that don't fit that model, and try to find and acquire more and more young talent that can be a part of the system of development you built in the first phase to product NHL talent. Fortunately, you probably suck at this time (we do), do you should have ample picks and avenues to add more and more raw material for your new system to mold and shape.

Phase 3: Once your core is fleshed out and you have enough prospects in the pipe - then you add players through free agency to complement or to fill gaps where you find them. Or perhaps, you find yourself, due to developmental timing or extraordinary circumstances, with an expendable piece or two of the core and you try to move them in a large meaningful trade.

I think we at least a season away before he feels like the FO and the Farm are in a position for him to add a significant piece in FA or in a trade. Name of the game is rebuilding the franchise from the ground up through personnel, culture, and homegrown talent.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I feel like this is correct. I think Yzerman's plan is fundamentally constructed around three phases:

Phase 1: Clean up your front office - Establish your culture. Yzerman knows that the lifeblood of any organization are the people that are in it. I think he had a crystal clear philosophy for organizational management and wanted people who were going to adhere to that model. We saw massive turnover in the front office, scouting staff, etc. to help him build a new winning tradition. Adding high quality, prime talent to a mismanaged or misaligned front office does the franchise no good because their abilities would go to waste by poor management and you don't have the luxury of building assets and meaningful contracts.

Phase 2: Reseed the farm/Build the Core - Assess current farm system prospects and using your new front office - build a strong, pipe of talent that aligns to your front office's ideal model for a team. Drop/Trade Prospects that don't fit that model, and try to find and acquire more and more young talent that can be a part of the system of development you built in the first phase to product NHL talent. Fortunately, you probably suck at this time (we do), do you should have ample picks and avenues to add more and more raw material for your new system to mold and shape.

Phase 3: Once your core is fleshed out and you have enough prospects in the pipe - then you add players through free agency to complement or to fill gaps where you find them. Or perhaps, you find yourself, due to developmental timing or extraordinary circumstances, with an expendable piece or two of the core and you try to move them in a large meaningful trade.

I think we at least a season away before he feels like the FO and the Farm are in a position for him to add a significant piece in FA or in a trade. Name of the game is rebuilding the franchise from the ground up through personnel, culture, and homegrown talent.

exactly this

 

[Ricelund]

This is my thinking too. I'm guessing Yzerman maybe goes with a couple of 1 or 2 year stop gaps on D that are in the Nemeth value/price range.

Signing a serviceable yet replaceable 3rd pair guy or two that have a decent salary might be helpful in the expansion draft as Seattle might go for that rather than take a prospect/young guy that Yzerman might have to leave exposed.

Agreed. I don't see Yzerman taking a swing at any of this year's big names.

 

[Mlotek]

they will have to sign some guys. We’ve got 3-4 guys moving out. No way around it.

edit: on this list I’d be interested in Gustafson and Barrie. The other guys I wouldn’t touch. MAYBE Krug, only because I’m not so sure he gets the size of contract everyone is suspecting.

I doubt Barrie would be a good fit.

We already got 1 offensive D-man who is lackluster in his own end and that's Hronek.

Barrie was criticised for his poor defensive play in Colorado and it has continued in Toronto. He's a top quality offensive D, but his skillset would not resolve this team's poor defensive play.

Haven't seen Gustafsson play much, but I think he'd be asking 6+ mil per year given his offensive output. Probably a premium over that to play in Detroit. Assuming Chicago don't re-up him.

 

[SirloinUB]

I feel like this is correct. I think Yzerman's plan is fundamentally constructed around three phases:

Phase 1: Clean up your front office - Establish your culture. Yzerman knows that the lifeblood of any organization are the people that are in it. I think he had a crystal clear philosophy for organizational management and wanted people who were going to adhere to that model. We saw massive turnover in the front office, scouting staff, etc. to help him build a new winning tradition. Adding high quality, prime talent to a mismanaged or misaligned front office does the franchise no good because their abilities would go to waste by poor management and you don't have the luxury of building assets and meaningful contracts.

Phase 2: Reseed the farm/Build the Core - Assess current farm system prospects and using your new front office - build a strong, pipe of talent that aligns to your front office's ideal model for a team. Drop/Trade Prospects that don't fit that model, and try to find and acquire more and more young talent that can be a part of the system of development you built in the first phase to product NHL talent. Fortunately, you probably suck at this time (we do), do you should have ample picks and avenues to add more and more raw material for your new system to mold and shape.

Phase 3: Once your core is fleshed out and you have enough prospects in the pipe - then you add players through free agency to complement or to fill gaps where you find them. Or perhaps, you find yourself, due to developmental timing or extraordinary circumstances, with an expendable piece or two of the core and you try to move them in a large meaningful trade.

I think we at least a season away before he feels like the FO and the Farm are in a position for him to add a significant piece in FA or in a trade. Name of the game is rebuilding the franchise from the ground up through personnel, culture, and homegrown talent.

I think this is a logical assessment and I could accept this approach. With the expansion draft looming another year of patience makes a lot of sense.

However if we look at the UFA D options for the summer of 2021 it appears to be a pretty sparse list. IF we can get someone outlined in OP for a contract that makes sense I think you have to consider it.

In regards to the Expansion Draft, we would currently protect Hronek, Dekeyser + 1 of Cholowski or Bowey. I'd have no problems with exposing Cholowski and Bowey if we can add one of the guys in OP.

 

[Hammettf2b]

I wouldn't mind Krug and Vatanen tbh.

Krug-Hronek
DDK-Vatanen
Cholo-Biega/Nemeth/Bowey

Or if Yzerman thinks Seider is ready, pass on Vatanen and plug Seider there.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I doubt Barrie would be a good fit.

We already got 1 offensive D-man who is lackluster in his own end and that's Hronek.

Barrie was criticised for his poor defensive play in Colorado and it has continued in Toronto. He's a top quality offensive D, but his skillset would not resolve this team's poor defensive play.

Haven't seen Gustafsson play much, but I think he'd be asking 6+ mil per year given his offensive output. Probably a premium over that to play in Detroit. Assuming Chicago don't re-up him.

I’m of the mind that the biggest deficit on our D is making the play when they recover the puck, more so than positioning and defending. (Neither are good I just think the former is worse than the latter) Barrie is very good at making those plays out of the zone. The best defense is to have the puck. We just give it away. I think that’s our biggest problem.

I’d give Gustafson a 4 x 5.5-6 I think he’s 28, which is the peak age I’d offer 4+ years to.

Get Dekeyser healthy and bring Seider in next year (yes he’s a prospect and “we don’t know” but his defensive game is the most side thing of all his tools.) throw nemeth in the mix. That’s three of your six D that are solid-very solid in their own zone. We have good defenders imo. We just don’t get to see them play much.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Looking into it more, I do think the Expansion Draft is going to be a huge factor for Yzerman. He got burned in Tampa sending Vegas a 2nd, 4th and the rights to Gusev to keep them from taking two unprotected young D that still had upside at the time (Dotchin and Koekkoek) and convince them to take a bad contract (Jason Garrison).

He'll have three spots to protect Dmen, and so far DeKeyser, Hronek, Cholowski, Lindstrom and Bowey will need to be protected or exposed. Anyone he brings in for longer than 1 year will also be eligible.

I think the plan ends up looking something like this:

-DeKeyser, Hronek and Nemeth are all tabbed as regular every game players
-They look to promote at least one but possibly two of Seider, Cholowski and Lindstrom to be regulars in the lineup
-Bowey's on the #6/7 bubble
-They look at signing a couple of Nemeth level vet UFA's, one for a year that they plan on moving as a rental before the deadline, one for 2 years that they can expose to Seattle to try to keep them from claiming a young or prospect D
-If the factors above add up to 7, they consider keeping up Hicketts or McIlrath as #8D to open up space in GR and cut down on the # of guys that count against the AHL vet rule (Hicketts will count as a veteran starting next season, where Lashoff and McIlrath are already in place)

 

[jkutswings]

Why on Earth would Detroit protect Bowey? Losing him would be addition by subtraction.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Why on Earth would Detroit protect Bowey? Losing him would be addition by subtraction.

Nick Lidstrom finds out he has some X-men like ability to possess people and uses it to play hockey through Madison Bowey instead of fighting crime?

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Really not worried about leaving DK exposed especially if we can land Krug...

I think we are more likely to target lesser players. But if either Petro or Krug want to talk to us we had better pitch them in my opinion and I think Yzerman would.

I don't think Danny Dekeyser and the expansion draft is going to preclude Yzerman from doing business this summer.