2020 Entry Draft Order for LA Kings discussion

[ricardfromage]

So you’re saying the draft lottery is rigged? So the league intentionally places teams into a predetermined order that they (Bettman?) want. So the whole lottery ball thing and the presentation on tv with all the GM’s is all a hoax?

Yes I believe that to some level the "lottery" is rigged. How rigged and to what extent I am not certain but it seems to me like something is amiss.

 

[AzKing]

Yes I believe that to some level the "lottery" is rigged. How rigged and to what extent I am not certain but it seems to me like something is amiss.

It's impossible for that to happen. Someone would leak the information. People always talk. The government would step in and not only shut it down, but prosecute those responsible. There is no way to rig any sort of draft. You would have the entire NHL thrown into some sort of uncharted territory and the governing body would be removed.

 

[bouncesonly]

Yes I believe that to some level the "lottery" is rigged. How rigged and to what extent I am not certain but it seems to me like something is amiss.

Do you understand how the draft lottery is operated?

 

[johnjm22]

If the lottery was rigged I don't think teams like Buffalo and Edmonton would win it.

 

[psych3man]

I heard an interview with Perfetti on NHL Radio today. The kid sounds very mature with strong character and leadership qualities.

 

[ricardfromage]

It's impossible for that to happen. Someone would leak the information. People always talk. The government would step in and not only shut it down, but prosecute those responsible. There is no way to rig any sort of draft. You would have the entire NHL thrown into some sort of uncharted territory and the governing body would be removed.

See that is a straw man argument though. Who is to say that the people in charge don't have it paired down to the smallest number of people possible in the know and in this case it could be as little as 2 or 3 people really. Also, in the military I can tell you that nobody has talked about several things that we were a part of or it would have ended up on the news for certain. See what I mean.

 

[ricardfromage]

I heard an interview with Perfetti on NHL Radio today. The kid sounds very mature with strong character and leadership qualities.

I think so too. For my money Perfetti is a real underdog in the top of the draft (if that is possible).

 

[ricardfromage]

Do you understand how the draft lottery is operated?

Very, very much so.

 

[bouncesonly]

Very, very much so.

So you believe that Ernst & Young, under the direction of the NHL/Bettman, is "fixing" the draft to an outcome of their liking, or at the least, Bettman is telling E&Y to redo the draft until he has an outcome that is acceptable?

 

[regulate]

 

[ricardfromage]

So you believe that Ernst & Young, under the direction of the NHL/Bettman, is "fixing" the draft to an outcome of their liking, or at the least, Bettman is telling E&Y to redo the draft until he has an outcome that is acceptable?

I didn't say that, what I said is that I believe that on some level that the system is rigged. I mean your question is sort of ridiculous isn't it? So the people who the NHL pays to put names into envelopes and then tell the NHL what names are in what envelopes are perfectly above suspicion? O.K. lets say that they are, then is Betteman above suspicion? Are the owners who pay him not capable of determining that certain things are for public consumption and others aren't? Do you remember Alan Eagleson? Is it outside the realm of possibility that Betteman et al couldn't also be capable of improprieties? I believe that something isn't adding up and that somewhere on some level something seems to be fishy to me. I don't believe that it is an impossibility but I welcome you to do so if that is what you want to do so. Ga head.

 

[bouncesonly]

I didn't say that, what I said is that I believe that on some level that the system is rigged. I mean your question is sort of ridiculous isn't it? So the people who the NHL pays to put names into envelopes and then tell the NHL what names are in what envelopes are perfectly above suspicion? O.K. lets say that they are, then is Betteman above suspicion? Are the owners who pay him not capable of determining that certain things are for public consumption and others aren't? Do you remember Alan Eagleson? Is it outside the realm of possibility that Betteman et al couldn't also be capable of improprieties? I believe that something isn't adding up and that somewhere on some level something seems to be fishy to me. I don't believe that it is an impossibility but I welcome you to do so if that is what you want to do so. Ga head.

If that is what you believe, or believe to be a possibility, you do not understand how the draft lottery works.

 

[ricardfromage]

If that is what you believe, or believe to be a possibility, you do not understand how the draft lottery works.

I see, so because I see things differently than you then the only possibility is that I must not understand how something works? Got it. Your depth is showing. I am done since reason isn't likely to be a part of our conversation.

 

[psych3man]

It is very very fishy when NJ (11.5%) & NY (7.8%), both MSG network franchises--the largest in US, get the first 2 picks...then the struggling Blackhawks, an original 6 in a huge market, get the 3rd pick (3.0%).
So, the two largest hockey markets in US get the first 3 picks. Hmmmmmmm.
And Ottawa (18.5%, 16.5%, 14.6%) & LA (13.5%, 13.0%, 12.3%) get 4 & 5.

Odds of 1 NJ, 2 NY & 3 Chi = .02691%
Odds of 1 Ott, 2 LA & 3 NJ = .2669%, just under 10x more likely

 

[King'sPawn]

It is very very fishy when NJ (11.5%) & NY (7.8%), both MSG network franchises--the largest in US, get the first 2 picks...then the struggling Blackhawks, an original 6 in a huge market, get the 3rd pick (3.0%).
So, the two largest hockey markets in US get the first 3 picks. Hmmmmmmm.
And Ottawa (18.5%, 16.5%, 14.6%) & LA (13.5%, 13.0%, 12.3%) get 4 & 5.

Odds of 1 NJ, 2 NY & 3 Chi = .02691%
Odds of 1 Ott, 2 LA & 3 NJ = .2669%, just under 10x more likely

And in 2018, the high-profile Buffalo and Carolina franchises got the 1st and 2nd overall picks. Explanation for that?

 

[bouncesonly]

I know I say shit like the Devils/Oilers are gonna pick 1OA again in 2020, however I say that in jest, cause it's hilarious and sad, but mostly hilarious.

But to actually believe the lottery is rigged is either 1, you don't understand how odds work, or 2, you don't understand how the draft lottery operates. If you do understand both, and you still choose to believe the lottery is fixed, as in the NHL wants a specific outcome regardless of the odds, is absolutely bonkers. Do you understand how many things would have to fail for this conspiracy to be even possible?

Bettman would be a diabolical genius if he was able to rig the lottery to his liking if he wasn't able to convince E&Y to do his bidding. How the f*** would he do that? The lottery is literally determined in front of the GM's, on camera, with representatives from E&Y ensuring the fairness of the lottery. He'd have to get a hold of the lottery balls from E&Y (without their knowledge) and swap them out to alter the odds. And even that would be a crap shoot...what's he gonna do, make all the balls/look up tables NJ. Cause it's being video recorded. What's the alternative if not make all the balls and look up tables NJ, edit the video recording later? What about the GM's watching this? They're not gonna like Bettman altering the video and thus the lottery? Or are they? They're going to agree that the video should be altered so that NJ picks 1oA? So Luc was "acting" with a pout'y face when he finds out the Kings are picking 5oA? Haha, that'd be hilarious. I don't even know where to begin to make this even remotely possible without adding confusing layers and figuring out who the f*** are going to be the actors in this conspiracy. And no one's even come close to offering a plausible way that wasn't pedestrian in thought. Literally the best explanation is "Bettman could." GMAFB.

And if E&Y was somehow convinced to be complicit in Bettman's shenanigans, that would literally mean the END (as in no longer existing) of E&Y, one of the big 4 accounting groups IN THE WORLD. NHL is chump change to a company like E&Y. Why the f*** would they risk the only thing that mattered to their business for the NHL/Bettman: their reputation?

Insane.

 

[ricardfromage]

I know I say shit like the Devils/Oilers are gonna pick 1OA again in 2020, however I say that in jest, cause it's hilarious and sad, but mostly hilarious.

But to actually believe the lottery is rigged is either 1, you don't understand how odds work, or 2, you don't understand how the draft lottery operates. If you do understand both, and you still choose to believe the lottery is fixed, as in the NHL wants a specific outcome regardless of the odds, is absolutely bonkers. Do you understand how many things would have to fail for this conspiracy to be even possible?

Bettman would be a diabolical genius if he was able to rig the lottery to his liking if he wasn't able to convince E&Y to do his bidding. How the f*** would he do that? The lottery is literally determined in front of the GM's, on camera, with representatives from E&Y ensuring the fairness of the lottery. He'd have to get a hold of the lottery balls from E&Y (without their knowledge) and swap them out to alter the odds. And even that would be a crap shoot...what's he gonna do, make all the balls/look up tables NJ. Cause it's being video recorded. What's the alternative if not make all the balls and look up tables NJ, edit the video recording later? What about the GM's watching this? They're not gonna like Bettman altering the video and thus the lottery? Or are they? They're going to agree that the video should be altered so that NJ picks 1oA? So Luc was "acting" with a pout'y face when he finds out the Kings are picking 5oA? Haha, that'd be hilarious. I don't even know where to begin to make this even remotely possible without adding confusing layers and figuring out who the f*** are going to be the actors in this conspiracy. And no one's even come close to offering a plausible way that wasn't pedestrian in thought. Literally the best explanation is "Bettman could." GMAFB.

And if E&Y was somehow convinced to be complicit in Bettman's shenanigans, that would literally mean the END (as in no longer existing) of E&Y, one of the big 4 accounting groups IN THE WORLD. NHL is chump change to a company like E&Y. Why the f*** would they risk the only thing that mattered to their business for the NHL/Bettman: their reputation?

Insane.

 

[psych3man]

And in 2018, the high-profile Buffalo and Carolina franchises got the 1st and 2nd overall picks. Explanation for that?

Actually, the 2018 draft went almost exactly how you would expect given the numbers, and the system worked near perfectly.
Here was the order of finish by performance:
1. Buf
2. Ott
3. Ari
4. Mon
5. Det

Here were the lottery results:
1. Buf
2. Car (from 11 spot, 3.3%)
3. Mon
4. Ott
5. Ari
6. Det

Notice:
(1) The worst team with the best odds got to pick first
(2) The bottom 4 all picked in the top 5
(3) The team outside top 4 (Det) only dropped 1 spot
(3) No team in the top 5 dropped more than 2 spots (2 dropped 2 spots, 1 dropped 1)
(3) Only one outlier, Car at 2, is what you would expect as no draft is perfect

Compare to 2019:
Performance:
1. Ottawa
2. LA
3. NJ
4. Det
5. Buf

Lottery:
1. NJ (from 3 spot, 11.5%)
2. NYR (from 6 spot, 7.8%)
3. Chi (from 12 spot, 3.0&)
4. Ott (dropped 3 spots)
5. LA (dropped 3 spots)
6. Det (dropped 2 spots)

Way too many improbable results 2019
And all improbable results were NY/Chi
In 2018 it works just like it should...
In 2019 nothing worked like it should...

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

And in 2018, the high-profile Buffalo and Carolina franchises got the 1st and 2nd overall picks. Explanation for that?

Had to keep up appearances?

 

[Maynard]

Actually, the 2018 draft went almost exactly how you would expect given the numbers, and the system worked near perfectly.
Here was the order of finish by performance:
1. Buf
2. Ott
3. Ari
4. Mon
5. Det

Here were the lottery results:
1. Buf
2. Car (from 11 spot, 3.3%)
3. Mon
4. Ott
5. Ari
6. Det

Notice:
(1) The worst team with the best odds got to pick first
(2) The bottom 4 all picked in the top 5
(3) The team outside top 4 (Det) only dropped 1 spot
(3) No team in the top 5 dropped more than 2 spots (2 dropped 2 spots, 1 dropped 1)
(3) Only one outlier, Car at 2, is what you would expect as no draft is perfect

Compare to 2019:
Performance:
1. Ottawa
2. LA
3. NJ
4. Det
5. Buf

Lottery:
1. NJ (from 3 spot, 11.5%)
2. NYR (from 6 spot, 7.8%)
3. Chi (from 12 spot, 3.0&)
4. Ott (dropped 3 spots)
5. LA (dropped 3 spots)
6. Det (dropped 2 spots)

Way too many improbable results 2019
And all improbable results were NY/Chi
In 2018 it works just like it should...
In 2019 nothing worked like it should...

You do understand that improbable results are a very normal part of lotteries and drawings right? That’s actually the point. The odds are just math. It’s descriptive, not prescriptive.

 

[King'sPawn]

Actually, the 2018 draft went almost exactly how you would expect given the numbers, and the system worked near perfectly.
Here was the order of finish by performance:
1. Buf
2. Ott
3. Ari
4. Mon
5. Det

Here were the lottery results:
1. Buf
2. Car (from 11 spot, 3.3%)
3. Mon
4. Ott
5. Ari
6. Det

Notice:
(1) The worst team with the best odds got to pick first
(2) The bottom 4 all picked in the top 5
(3) The team outside top 4 (Det) only dropped 1 spot
(3) No team in the top 5 dropped more than 2 spots (2 dropped 2 spots, 1 dropped 1)
(3) Only one outlier, Car at 2, is what you would expect as no draft is perfect

Compare to 2019:
Performance:
1. Ottawa
2. LA
3. NJ
4. Det
5. Buf

Lottery:
1. NJ (from 3 spot, 11.5%)
2. NYR (from 6 spot, 7.8%)
3. Chi (from 12 spot, 3.0&)
4. Ott (dropped 3 spots)
5. LA (dropped 3 spots)
6. Det (dropped 2 spots)

Way too many improbable results 2019
And all improbable results were NY/Chi
In 2018 it works just like it should...
In 2019 nothing worked like it should...

And 2017? Going exactly as it should or a conspiracy to get big market teams like New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Dallas the top picks?

2016 with picks going to Toronto, Winnipeg, and Columbus?

The point is, the lotteries go exactly as they should. As it's a lottery. Every result has varying degrees of probability, but they can all happen.

 

[HavlatMach9]

you're suggesting that that's how it goes down unless you have a different idea about how the lottery is rigged

 

[LAKings88]

I would think if it’s rigged the NHL would want an exciting star in LA no?

 

[tbrown33]

I would think if it’s rigged the NHL would want an exciting star in LA no?

that's why we'll win this one

I am not sure why the NHL would fix the lottery. What would the motive be? The risk-reward factor here makes no sense. So NJ and NYR win the last one because...why? Who benefits? What's the end goal? Does the NHL become - to a noticeable degree - markedly richer because Hughes is in NJ and Kaako is in NY? Or are NJ and NYR in on it in this scenario?

Similar to flath earthers, I just have so many questions.

 

[psych3man]

I cannot conceive how I would get the idea that a league that uniquely rigged an expansion draft to ensure that the new team in a large and massively growing market would be immediately super-successful (thereby allowing them to extort and penalize deep, well-developed existing teams...then allowing them exemption from the next time such a ridiculous draft was to be held) would use a prospect draft to protect the league's 2 largest markets...where would I get such a ridiculous illogical theory from.

1) Remember, Hughes and Kakko were league-wide thought to be immediate impact players, which was why Robitaille was so upset at not getting either; remember the Kings perceived either player as immediately spearheading their way back, both on the ice and publicity-wise. Both players have underperformed the league's expectations (fair or not); do not forget how they were perceived at the time.

2) I know Vegas gets no expansion money in exchange for being exempt from the Seattle draft. I don't give a damn about the money, I care about all teams having to play by the same rules and not allowing a team that has already been provided an unfair advantage to be given another competitive edge no other team gets.