Proposal: 2020 Draft Battle Plan

[jkutswings]

My dream would still be Perfetti/Raymond + Askarov but I have a hard time seeing him making it to 11th.

Then the real question is:

If you're able to swing that deal and land #11 overall...what more would you have to do in order to deal #11 to Buffalo for #8, and never give Minnesota the chance? Is one of those second rounders enough, or would it take another sweetener?

 

[MBH]

This is not a good defenseman draft at all.

Can almost guarantee it is. We just don't know it yet.

 

[MBH]

The Islanders aren't giving up Dobson or Wahlstrom to dump Boychuk

 

[Tetsuo]

Then the real question is:

If you're able to swing that deal and land #11 overall...what more would you have to do in order to deal #11 to Buffalo for #8, and never give Minnesota the chance? Is one of those second rounders enough, or would it take another sweetener?

45th OA is easily good enough to move up. If not 32nd OA instead, though i would ask for their 3rd in addition because 32nd is effectively a 1st round pick.

Also im not sold on Minnesota taking Askarov either, they are very depleted in terms of organizational center depth. And Askarov is not heading across the pond right away so he doesn't really solve their near term issues. I think they are the earliest team that he good go to, however, based off of their clear need.

 

[Tetsuo]

The Islanders aren't giving up Dobson or Wahlstrom to dump Boychuk

Its a pie in the sky for sure. But teams know they need to move a lot of money around and will exploit them. Barzal alone could eat all of their cap space. Its a very unique situation. If im doing the negotiating I start at Dobson and get worked down to a 1st.

 

[Ishad]

Give me lots of 2nd rounders this year. With the information gap due to covid I think there's lots of potential for picking up a good player in the late second.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

The Islanders aren't giving up Dobson or Wahlstrom to dump Boychuk

As it stands now they have 8.1M to sign Barzal, Pulock, & Toews. Evolving-Hockey has their most likely contracts projected as:

• Barzal 9.5M for 8 years
• Pulock 6.5M for 5 years
• Toews 4.75M for 4 years

That's 20.75M in total which means they're short a whopping 12.65M. Let's be reasonable and say that due to the flat cap Barzal gets the Aho contract, 8.45M per year for 5 years; Pulock gets 5 years for 6M, and Toews is let go as a cap causality. That is now 13.45M in total and they're still 5.4M short of reaching that total.

In terms of easily movable pieces I don't think the Islanders really have any. Boychuk, Leddy, Ladd, Clutterbuck, Komarov, and Bailey are all pretty overpaid with 2-5 years remaining on their deals. A buyout doesn't seem likely either as buying out either Ladd or Boychuk provides the team with just about 1M in cap relief and Komarov or Clutterbuck provide around 1.5M each in savings. Unless a team thinks that Leddy is a worthwhile addition I don't see anyway the Isles get out of this offseason without having to move major assets to sign 2 of their RFAs, let alone all 3.

I'm sure the Leafs didn't want to move a 1st to dump Marleau, but it was their only option. In a similar vein imagine if Barzal was to get offersheeted before the Isles had cleared enough cap to match. The other teams would be able to get a kings ransom for taking on one of those bad contracts. MTL & BUF both have a need for an excellent center and an offer sheet of 8.45M for 5 years only takes a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to make. I also think that it's a bad idea for the Isles to move a 2021 1st, even with top 10 protection, because I do think it's likely they're in the bottom 10 come next season and moving an unprotected 1st in 2022 is dangerous.

 

[Winger98]

I'd consider just moving Pulock and Toews and running with leddy/boychuck/pelech/mayfield/hickey/dobson as the top6. See what Greene would re-sign for, or go shopping for someone else to step in as that #7 guy while maturing Wilde in AHL. Long story short, I'd trust in Trotz making it work rather than hemorrhage assets to keep those two.

 

[MBH]

As it stands now they have 8.1M to sign Barzal, Pulock, & Toews. Evolving-Hockey has their most likely contracts projected as:

• Barzal 9.5M for 8 years
• Pulock 6.5M for 5 years
• Toews 4.75M for 4 years

That's 20.75M in total which means they're short a whopping 12.65M. Let's be reasonable and say that due to the flat cap Barzal gets the Aho contract, 8.45M per year for 5 years; Pulock gets 5 years for 6M, and Toews is let go as a cap causality. That is now 13.45M in total and they're still 5.4M short of reaching that total.

In terms of easily movable pieces I don't think the Islanders really have any. Boychuk, Leddy, Ladd, Clutterbuck, Komarov, and Bailey are all pretty overpaid with 2-5 years remaining on their deals. A buyout doesn't seem likely either as buying out either Ladd or Boychuk provides the team with just about 1M in cap relief and Komarov or Clutterbuck provide around 1.5M each in savings. Unless a team thinks that Leddy is a worthwhile addition I don't see anyway the Isles get out of this offseason without having to move major assets to sign 2 of their RFAs, let alone all 3.

I'm sure the Leafs didn't want to move a 1st to dump Marleau, but it was their only option. In a similar vein imagine if Barzal was to get offersheeted before the Isles had cleared enough cap to match. The other teams would be able to get a kings ransom for taking on one of those bad contracts. MTL & BUF both have a need for an excellent center and an offer sheet of 8.45M for 5 years only takes a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to make. I also think that it's a bad idea for the Isles to move a 2021 1st, even with top 10 protection, because I do think it's likely they're in the bottom 10 come next season and moving an unprotected 1st in 2022 is dangerous.

They aren't giving up Dobson.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

I'd consider just moving Pulock and Toews and running with leddy/boychuck/pelech/mayfield/hickey/dobson as the top6. See what Greene would re-sign for, or go shopping for someone else to step in as that #7 guy while maturing Wilde in AHL. Long story short, I'd trust in Trotz making it work rather than hemorrhage assets to keep those two.

They would be moving their #1 dman, Pulock, and 2nd pairing dman in Toews for a return that would have to be mostly picks and prospects. For a team that is in their "win now" window I can't see that option being on the table. Boychuk is well below a replacement level player, Leddy is a 5/6 at this point, Pelech is a good #2/3, Dobsonis looking like a solid 2nd pairing dmen, and Mayfield + Hickey are 3rd pairing or #7s. I think that defence would be a significant step down from what they've had the past few seasons and would be bottom 5 in the league.

They aren't giving up Dobson.

Probably not, but they will need to move significant assets if they're moving some of their less describable pieces to clear cap space. If it's one of the bigger contracts it's going to have to be a Wahlstrom, Dobson, or a future 1st that moves. If it's players like Komarov or Clutterbuck then it's picks or higher end prospects. I could see a deal where they dump Toews with one of the 2 players, but that still doesn't clear enough cap.

The point isn't that it HAS to be Dobson, but that the Isles cap situation means they will have to make difficult choices this offseason and likely by draft day. Going to FA with just 8.1M in cap space is not an option because of the threat of an offer sheet. Even if you don't think it's likely you need to have at least enough space to match offers on both Barzal and Pulock and hope that nobody throws one at Toews.

 

[HoweFan]

So if Washington loses that leaves 8 teams left. Don’t all of those teams draft after the Caps? If they are the highest ranked team to exit do we not get the 54 pick instead of 58

 

[Winger98]

They would be moving their #1 dman, Pulock, and 2nd pairing dman in Toews for a return that would have to be mostly picks and prospects. For a team that is in their "win now" window I can't see that option being on the table. Boychuk is well below a replacement level player, Leddy is a 5/6 at this point, Pelech is a good #2/3, Dobsonis looking like a solid 2nd pairing dmen, and Mayfield + Hickey are 3rd pairing or #7s. I think that defence would be a significant step down from what they've had the past few seasons and would be bottom 5 in the league.

Like their forwards took a big hit when Tavares left?

Pelech is averaging more minutes than Pulock in the playoffs and Leddy is all of 9 seconds behind him. Toews is their #4, but #5 as ES behind the aforementioned three and Mayfield. Meanwhile, we've seen Trotz play defensemen and goalies up in his system for twenty years.

Toews and Pulock just aren't anything special. And if you're hurting for cap space, I'm not sure why you go out of your way to sign a couple of guys like that to big deals when you have a coach like Trotz and a couple of prospects like Wilde and Dobson.

 

[Killerjas]

I would target Toronto, they are not gonna let Ceci and Barrie walk free.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Like their forwards took a big hit when Tavares left?

Pelech is averaging more minutes than Pulock in the playoffs and Leddy is all of 9 seconds behind him. Toews is their #4, but #5 as ES behind the aforementioned three and Mayfield. Meanwhile, we've seen Trotz play defensemen and goalies up in his system for twenty years.

Toews and Pulock just aren't anything special. And if you're hurting for cap space, I'm not sure why you go out of your way to sign a couple of guys like that to big deals when you have a coach like Trotz and a couple of prospects like Wilde and Dobson.

The Islanders were able to adjust to JT leaving by moving towards a much more defensive system as well as having incredible performances from their goalies. The Islanders would almost certainly be better with JT then without him, I don't think that's up for debate, JT is a gamebreaker and adds a dynamic that the Islanders lack. What they've done is commendable, but you have to wonder how long they can keep the success going. If their goalies falter or there defence deteriorates they're in trouble.

Just because a player plays a lot of minutes doesn't mean they're playing those minutes particularly well. Would you suggest that Nemeth is better than Hronek because he played more at ES this season? Or that last year Hamilton was worse than Faulk because he played less? Coaches aren't perfect and they will play players in ways that they feel will help them the most, that doesn't mean their perceptions line up with reality. In the regular season Pulock played over 22 minutes a game and was 1st in ES TOI, Toews played over 20 minutes and was 4th in ES TOI per game. Losing both of them in the same offseason is difficult and trying to do so in one offseason would be close to impossible.

I think you're seriously under estimating the impact that Pulock and Toews have and the expectation of easily replacing them is misguided. Leddy is not able to replace Pulock and while Dobson should move into a top 4 role next season the Islanders are built on depth and losing that depth really hurt their team. I also wouldn't count on Wilde being anything until he proves himself at the AHL level at least.

 

[ShippinItDaily]

I think Leddy would be a pretty good target. Maybe not the cap dump I'd most be after, but he would help provide some stability to the defense for the next couple of years and possibly beyond that.

Getting him with a pick and then having the option to flip him later if he does well in a more prominent role on this team could be a really nice piece of asset management.

I'd also be interested in what Toews might cost to acquire.

 

[Winger98]

The Islanders were able to adjust to JT leaving by moving towards a much more defensive system as well as having incredible performances from their goalies. The Islanders would almost certainly be better with JT then without him, I don't think that's up for debate, JT is a gamebreaker and adds a dynamic that the Islanders lack. What they've done is commendable, but you have to wonder how long they can keep the success going. If their goalies falter or there defence deteriorates they're in trouble.

Just because a player plays a lot of minutes doesn't mean they're playing those minutes particularly well. Would you suggest that Nemeth is better than Hronek because he played more at ES this season? Or that last year Hamilton was worse than Faulk because he played less? Coaches aren't perfect and they will play players in ways that they feel will help them the most, that doesn't mean their perceptions line up with reality. In the regular season Pulock played over 22 minutes a game and was 1st in ES TOI, Toews played over 20 minutes and was 4th in ES TOI per game. Losing both of them in the same offseason is difficult and trying to do so in one offseason would be close to impossible.

I think you're seriously under estimating the impact that Pulock and Toews have and the expectation of easily replacing them is misguided. Leddy is not able to replace Pulock and while Dobson should move into a top 4 role next season the Islanders are built on depth and losing that depth really hurt their team. I also wouldn't count on Wilde being anything until he proves himself at the AHL level at least.

And part of that system is also making it easier for the D to play over their abilities. The TOI spread from their #1 to their #5 is 22:30 to 19:57 a game. would losing Pulock and Toews hurt? Yeah, but you're not making their situation better by overpaying for those guys. Neither of them are clear leaders of that D, neither of them play in all situations, neither of them eat significantly more IT than anyone else on that squad. NYI is far better off moving on from them than from dumping younger, better assets to keep guys around on bloated deals. Sign Barzal, and cut bait. Let someone else over invest in guys who are pretty meh players who happen to be in the right system at the right time.

Meanwhile, Trotz will move Dobson in, maybe hold Wilde as the #7 or they sign a guy like Greene on the cheap. Ice time will get moved around, roles re-distributed a bit and NYI will be around the top of their division again while NYI will have opened up a good chunk of cap space moving forward.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

And part of that system is also making it easier for the D to play over their abilities. The TOI spread from their #1 to their #5 is 22:30 to 19:57 a game. would losing Pulock and Toews hurt? Yeah, but you're not making their situation better by overpaying for those guys. Neither of them are clear leaders of that D, neither of them play in all situations, neither of them eat significantly more IT than anyone else on that squad. NYI is far better off moving on from them than from dumping younger, better assets to keep guys around on bloated deals. Sign Barzal, and cut bait. Let someone else over invest in guys who are pretty meh players who happen to be in the right system at the right time.

Meanwhile, Trotz will move Dobson in, maybe hold Wilde as the #7 or they sign a guy like Greene on the cheap. Ice time will get moved around, roles re-distributed a bit and NYI will be around the top of their division again while NYI will have opened up a good chunk of cap space moving forward.

The issue is that none of the other defenceman play their minutes as effectively as Pulock or Toews. Losing those 2 while replacing them with replacement level players is a major blow to their blueline and team in general. They may have an equal distribution of ice time, but it's not equal in terms of the on ice results. I don't think we'll see eye to on this as you seem to think Pulock and Toews are dime a dozen types who are only playing well because of Trotz and his system. Paying someone like Pulock 6-6.5M is not even close to an overpayment, nor is given Toews 3.5-5M an overpayment. These guys have more than proven themselves and if we were closer to contention would be excellent fits for us.

You're also missing how bad the Islanders cap situation is. Even if they move Pulock and Toews they still don't have the cap space to sign anyone else unless Barzal takes a discount. They have 8.1M in cap space and Barzal should easily get 8M+. They have to move someone before the draft because of the threat of an offer sheet.

 

[Winger98]

The issue is that none of the other defenceman play their minutes as effectively as Pulock or Toews. Losing those 2 while replacing them with replacement level players is a major blow to their blueline and team in general. They may have an equal distribution of ice time, but it's not equal in terms of the on ice results. I don't think we'll see eye to on this as you seem to think Pulock and Toews are dime a dozen types who are only playing well because of Trotz and his system. Paying someone like Pulock 6-6.5M is not even close to an overpayment, nor is given Toews 3.5-5M an overpayment. These guys have more than proven themselves and if we were closer to contention would be excellent fits for us.

You're also missing how bad the Islanders cap situation is. Even if they move Pulock and Toews they still don't have the cap space to sign anyone else unless Barzal takes a discount. They have 8.1M in cap space and Barzal should easily get 8M+. They have to move someone before the draft because of the threat of an offer sheet.

Oh, we're definitely not going to agree on this because there isn't any way I would want Pulock or Toews on the Wings at$6m and $5m respectively, especially isnce you're also looking at probably 4+ years on each of those deals. I'd rather sign Gudas and promote Seider. And the Isles don't have to move anyone before the draft. Give Barzal the $9m or so he wants long term, go over during the offseason, and look to cut where need be. As it is, signing barzal gives them 14 forwards, 6 D, and 2 goalies on that cap hit for next year. If push comes to shove, go with 13 forwards and they'll probably be fine. Or just bank on an injury at some point. The Wings did it for years and the roster always sorted itself out.

I'm also not sold on Barzal getting $8+ million here, either, but have been going with it for the same of the argument about the D. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Pulock and Barzal both signed for short deals totalling around $10m because the market is going to be dead and the escrow the players are going to fear escrow killing them anyway.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

We are not paying Turris for 8 years...

yeah nevermind, read the buyout wrong.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Oh, we're definitely not going to agree on this because there isn't any way I would want Pulock or Toews on the Wings at$6m and $5m respectively, especially isnce you're also looking at probably 4+ years on each of those deals. I'd rather sign Gudas and promote Seider. And the Isles don't have to move anyone before the draft. Give Barzal the $9m or so he wants long term, go over during the offseason, and look to cut where need be. As it is, signing barzal gives them 14 forwards, 6 D, and 2 goalies on that cap hit for next year. If push comes to shove, go with 13 forwards and they'll probably be fine. Or just bank on an injury at some point. The Wings did it for years and the roster always sorted itself out.

I'm also not sold on Barzal getting $8+ million here, either, but have been going with it for the same of the argument about the D. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Pulock and Barzal both signed for short deals totalling around $10m because the market is going to be dead and the escrow the players are going to fear escrow killing them anyway.

I have wanted Pulock since his draft year. Sign me up for an aggressive chase on him. He is the guy I wanted in the Mantha draft, basically him and then Mantha was my desire.

 

[Winger98]

I have wanted Pulock since his draft year. Sign me up for an aggressive chase on him. He is the guy I wanted in the Mantha draft, basically him and then Mantha was my desire.

Where are you playing him? Personally, I don't slot him ahead of Hronek and Seider. So, $6+m for a third pair D? On NYI, I don't see them losing much having to give Mayfield an extra minute, bringing Dobson in as an 18-20 minute guy, and letting Boychuck mop up on the third pair. Especially if the cap is worrying them. Pay Dobson less than $1m or deal him for essentially nothing to move another contract to pay Pulock $6+m? And probably run into more contract troubles next year because you're overpaying on D.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Where are you playing him? Personally, I don't slot him ahead of Hronek and Seider. So, $6+m for a third pair D? On NYI, I don't see them losing much having to give Mayfield an extra minute, bringing Dobson in as an 18-20 minute guy, and letting Boychuck mop up on the third pair. Especially if the cap is worrying them. Pay Dobson less than $1m or deal him for essentially nothing to move another contract to pay Pulock $6+m? And probably run into more contract troubles next year because you're overpaying on D.

I slot him above both right now, I think Seider overtakes him. I don't think Hronek gets better than Pulock who is a more well rounded player, with similar offense. We will see, I understand betting on Hronek if you want to.

Pulock has one of the best shots in the league, plays heavy defense against other team's #1 lines.

I trade Hronek for assets we need in this scenario.

I wouldn't deal Dobson under any circumstance if I am the Islanders. I just think Pulock is a keeper, I look to trim the fat elsewhere if I am them and I pick him over Mayfield. Those are my right side top 4 for a little while. If he is available he intrigues me significantly. He is a really good skater, plays heavy and absolutely thumps the puck from the blueline.

Pay somebody to take Nick Leddy, re-visit the Parise trade with some more add-ons. They can shift some options around.

Ryan Pulock is a really solid D-man. I like his game a lot.

 

[Winger98]

I slot him above both right now, I think Seider overtakes him. I don't think Hronek gets better than Pulock who is a more well rounded player, with similar offense. We will see, I understand betting on Hronek if you want to.

Pulock has one of the best shots in the league, plays heavy defense against other team's #1 lines.

I trade Hronek for assets we need in this scenario.

I wouldn't deal Dobson under any circumstance if I am the Islanders. I just think Pulock is a keeper, I look to trim the fat elsewhere if I am them and I pick him over Mayfield. Those are my right side top 4 for a little while. If he is available he intrigues me significantly. He is a really good skater, plays heavy and absolutely thumps the puck from the blueline.

Pay somebody to take Nick Leddy, re-visit the Parise trade with some more add-ons. They can shift some options around.

Ryan Pulock is a really solid D-man. I like his game a lot.

If you can move other guys, sure, keep him. I still don't see a guy who is going to carry that blueline, and if we're looking at dumping $6+ million on a guy, I want him to carry something. I watch the guy, and I see a guy I'd ideally like on a second pair. But I like a guy making what Hronek is making a lot more there. Pulock is a guy you move when he gets too expensive because someone will overpay for him, and it's better the other guy does it. Honestly, Hronek will probably be that guy, too. But we don't have to overpay him yet.

 

[Frk It]

I slot him above both right now, I think Seider overtakes him. I don't think Hronek gets better than Pulock who is a more well rounded player, with similar offense. We will see, I understand betting on Hronek if you want to.

Pulock has one of the best shots in the league, plays heavy defense against other team's #1 lines.

I trade Hronek for assets we need in this scenario.

I wouldn't deal Dobson under any circumstance if I am the Islanders. I just think Pulock is a keeper, I look to trim the fat elsewhere if I am them and I pick him over Mayfield. Those are my right side top 4 for a little while. If he is available he intrigues me significantly. He is a really good skater, plays heavy and absolutely thumps the puck from the blueline.

Pay somebody to take Nick Leddy, re-visit the Parise trade with some more add-ons. They can shift some options around.

Ryan Pulock is a really solid D-man. I like his game a lot.

Different players.... But I'd prefer to keep the 22 year old defenseman already showing he can put up .5 PPG.

 

[WaW]

Its a pie in the sky for sure. But teams know they need to move a lot of money around and will exploit them. Barzal alone could eat all of their cap space. Its a very unique situation. If im doing the negotiating I start at Dobson and get worked down to a 1st.

Alternatively, we could spin it the other way. Start at Boychuk to take Dobson or Wahlstrom, and settle for doing them one better and taking Ladd instead.