Proposal: 2020 Draft Battle Plan

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Ya’ll over value 2nd round picks, especially from contenders that will like be in the 50 range. The canes got a 1st to buyout Marleau and you guys are tripping over yourself to add some picks that have a less than 20% chance of having a meaningful career.


“Sweet sweet sweet 2nd round picks” lmao. I ain’t taking on any significant contracts for a 52nd pick

I think it all depends on what player the Wings are taking on. Someone with like a 1 year deal at 3M isn't that bad of a contract to take on if you're getting a 2nd rounder back; however, I definitely wouldn't take on a Jack Johnson or Jay Beagle for just a 2nd rounder. If a team wants us to take on those truly awful ones their going to have to pay up and move some premium assets.

If it were up to me I'd be calling the Pens about Johnson; the Canucks about Eriksson, Beagle, Ferland, or Roussel; and the Islanders about Boychuk and their bangers, Komarov and Clutterbuck. I had previously looked at the cost of dumping a contact last year and based off of that framework I've made some mock salary dump trades. I should note that last year the model was pretty bang on the Marleau trade as well as a couple others, but it missed the mark on Zaitsev. Anyways, here are some mock trades I think we could see this offseason, assuming these teams are looking to move salary:

Spoiler

To Wings:

Jack Johnson (3 years 3.25M per, has to be played or bought out)
Jared McCann (RFA)
2021 2nd

To Pens:

Adam Erne/Future Considerations

To Wings:

Karl Alzner (2 years x 4.25M per, has to be played or bought out)
2020 1st/(top 10 protected 2021 1st)
Josh Brook

To Mtl:

Turgeon/Future Considerations

To Wings

Johnny Boychuk (Limited NTC & 2 years 6M per, has to be played or bought out)
Noah Dobson
2022 2nd

Or

Johnny Boychuk
Oliver Wahlstrom
Devon Toews (RFA)

To NYI

Christopher Ehn/Givani Smith

To Wings

Leo Komarov or Cal Clutterbuck (2 years x 3M per or 2 x 3.5M per)
Devon Toews (RFA)

To NYI

Turgeon/Future Considerations

I think the best team to take advantage of is the Islanders. They have to sign Barzal, Pulock, and Toews while having just 8.5M in cap space. Unless a team still thinks Boychuk can play, he can't, then the Islanders will need to clear anywhere from 6-10M to sign everyone. I think this is where we can swoop in and get some legitimate talent. One of Dobson or Wahlstrom + would be coming our way if we were to take on Boychuk. The biggest hurdle is that Boychuk has a limited NTC so he'd have to waive to come here. Toews is a legit top 4 defenceman and would slot in nicely on our 2nd pair and while he is older I think he could be signed at a discounted rate due to his limited playing time at the NHL level.

If it were up to me I think I'd look to take on Johnson and Boychuk's contract assuming that the deals were somewhat similar to what the "Dumping Framework" expects.

 

[deca guard]

I think it all depends on what player the Wings are taking on. Someone with like a 1 year deal at 3M isn't that bad of a contract to take on if you're getting a 2nd rounder back; however, I definitely wouldn't take on a Jack Johnson or Jay Beagle for just a 2nd rounder. If a team wants us to take on those truly awful ones their going to have to pay up and move some premium assets.

If it were up to me I'd be calling the Pens about Johnson; the Canucks about Eriksson, Beagle, Ferland, or Roussel; and the Islanders about Boychuk and their bangers, Komarov and Clutterbuck. I had previously looked at the cost of dumping a contact last year and based off of that framework I've made some mock salary dump trades. I should note that last year the model was pretty bang on the Marleau trade as well as a couple others, but it missed the mark on Zaitsev. Anyways, here are some mock trades I think we could see this offseason, assuming these teams are looking to move salary:

Spoiler

To Wings:

Jack Johnson (3 years 3.25M per, has to be played or bought out)
Jared McCann (RFA)
2021 2nd

To Pens:

Adam Erne/Future Considerations

To Wings:

Karl Alzner (2 years x 4.25M per, has to be played or bought out)
2020 1st/(top 10 protected 2021 1st)
Josh Brook

To Mtl:

Turgeon/Future Considerations

To Wings

Johnny Boychuk (Limited NTC & 2 years 6M per, has to be played or bought out)
Noah Dobson
2022 2nd

Or

Johnny Boychuk
Oliver Wahlstrom
Devon Toews (RFA)

To NYI

Christopher Ehn/Givani Smith

To Wings

Leo Komarov or Cal Clutterbuck (2 years x 3M per or 2 x 3.5M per)
Devon Toews (RFA)

To NYI

Turgeon/Future Considerations

I think the best team to take advantage of is the Islanders. They have to sign Barzal, Pulock, and Toews while having just 8.5M in cap space. Unless a team still thinks Boychuk can play, he can't, then the Islanders will need to clear anywhere from 6-10M to sign everyone. I think this is where we can swoop in and get some legitimate talent. One of Dobson or Wahlstrom + would be coming our way if we were to take on Boychuk. The biggest hurdle is that Boychuk has a limited NTC so he'd have to waive to come here. Toews is a legit top 4 defenceman and would slot in nicely on our 2nd pair and while he is older I think he could be signed at a discounted rate due to his limited playing time at the NHL level.

If it were up to me I think I'd look to take on Johnson and Boychuk's contract assuming that the deals were somewhat similar to what the "Dumping Framework" expects.

- love dobson
- komrov works for culture
- with rutherford recently saying theyre still looking to challenge next season i could see doing business with pitt
- the more draft pix this draft the better

 

[Henkka]

A - Creative playmakers (generally playing for a teammate, not for themselves)
B - Annoying guys to play against (to make opposite teams frustraded)
C - some goaltenders at 3rd-4th round picks (spread it around, one talent will hit some day)

That's the plan.

 

[Tetsuo]

I think it all depends on what player the Wings are taking on. Someone with like a 1 year deal at 3M isn't that bad of a contract to take on if you're getting a 2nd rounder back; however, I definitely wouldn't take on a Jack Johnson or Jay Beagle for just a 2nd rounder. If a team wants us to take on those truly awful ones their going to have to pay up and move some premium assets.

If it were up to me I'd be calling the Pens about Johnson; the Canucks about Eriksson, Beagle, Ferland, or Roussel; and the Islanders about Boychuk and their bangers, Komarov and Clutterbuck. I had previously looked at the cost of dumping a contact last year and based off of that framework I've made some mock salary dump trades. I should note that last year the model was pretty bang on the Marleau trade as well as a couple others, but it missed the mark on Zaitsev. Anyways, here are some mock trades I think we could see this offseason, assuming these teams are looking to move salary:

Spoiler

To Wings:

Jack Johnson (3 years 3.25M per, has to be played or bought out)
Jared McCann (RFA)
2021 2nd

To Pens:

Adam Erne/Future Considerations

To Wings:

Karl Alzner (2 years x 4.25M per, has to be played or bought out)
2020 1st/(top 10 protected 2021 1st)
Josh Brook

To Mtl:

Turgeon/Future Considerations

To Wings

Johnny Boychuk (Limited NTC & 2 years 6M per, has to be played or bought out)
Noah Dobson
2022 2nd

Or

Johnny Boychuk
Oliver Wahlstrom
Devon Toews (RFA)

To NYI

Christopher Ehn/Givani Smith

To Wings

Leo Komarov or Cal Clutterbuck (2 years x 3M per or 2 x 3.5M per)
Devon Toews (RFA)

To NYI

Turgeon/Future Considerations

I think the best team to take advantage of is the Islanders. They have to sign Barzal, Pulock, and Toews while having just 8.5M in cap space. Unless a team still thinks Boychuk can play, he can't, then the Islanders will need to clear anywhere from 6-10M to sign everyone. I think this is where we can swoop in and get some legitimate talent. One of Dobson or Wahlstrom + would be coming our way if we were to take on Boychuk. The biggest hurdle is that Boychuk has a limited NTC so he'd have to waive to come here. Toews is a legit top 4 defenceman and would slot in nicely on our 2nd pair and while he is older I think he could be signed at a discounted rate due to his limited playing time at the NHL level.

If it were up to me I think I'd look to take on Johnson and Boychuk's contract assuming that the deals were somewhat similar to what the "Dumping Framework" expects.

I absolutely agree with the idea of targeting the Isles specifically. Their cap situation is among the worst in the league this off season. However I would push as hard as possible for a 2022 1st from them. I would not at all be surprised to see them in the lottery a few years down the road and having an extra bullet to grab Wright, Lambert or Savoie could be huge for us. Although I do really like the idea of grabbing Dobson and forming a three-headed monster along the right side with Seider and Hronek. However, the issue with the Islanders' players that could be moved is that they all have some amount of an NTC that would possibly need to be waived for them to come here.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

- love dobson
- komrov works for culture
- with rutherford recently saying theyre still looking to challenge next season i could see doing business with pitt
- the more draft pix this draft the better

I'd love to be able to get more picks from taking on bad contracts too. The thing is that in the past examples of dumps most teams dumping the contract moved younger players opposed to 1st round picks. I think if we can get some higher end prospects or younger RFAs it makes more sense to push for those types.

I absolutely agree with the idea of targeting the Isles specifically. Their cap situation is among the worst in the league this off season. However I would push as hard as possible for a 2022 1st from them. I would not at all be surprised to see them in the lottery a few years down the road and having an extra bullet to grab Wright, Lambert or Savoie could be huge for us. Although I do really like the idea of grabbing Dobson and forming a three-headed monster along the right side with Seider and Hronek. However, the issue with the Islanders' players that could be moved is that they all have some amount of an NTC that would possibly need to be waived for them to come here.

I'd love to target the Isles 2022 1st, I think that makes a ton of sense and agree that they could be lottery bound by that point. As I alluded to above, teams are really hesitant to move 1sts in salary dumps and in my sample it was only the Marleau trade that included a 1st. Most dump type of trades generally include a younger player such as Reilly Smith & Marc Savard going to Florida or Bryan Bickell & Teuvo Teravainen.

I thought about some targets a little more and another one could be Nashville. While there has never been a salary dump trade when a player had greater than 3 years left, I think Turris makes sense for us to take. He's not a negative like most players, but he's severely overpaid and will likely only be getting worse. Assuming they are looking to move him and other teams aren't willing to trade anything for him I think a salary dump trade could like Turris+11th overall/Tomasino+NJ 2020 2nd+2021 2nd or Turris+Tomasino/11th+Trenin+2021 2nd. I think there's some kind of combination of Tomasino, their 11th, NJ 2020 2nd, their 2020 2nd, Trenin, Afanasyev, Tolvanen, and picks in future years that would make sense for us.

 

[deca guard]

I'd love to be able to get more picks from taking on bad contracts too. The thing is that in the past examples of dumps most teams dumping the contract moved younger players opposed to 1st round picks. I think if we can get some higher end prospects or younger RFAs it makes more sense to push for those types.



I'd love to target the Isles 2022 1st, I think that makes a ton of sense and agree that they could be lottery bound by that point. As I alluded to above, teams are really hesitant to move 1sts in salary dumps and in my sample it was only the Marleau trade that included a 1st. Most dump type of trades generally include a younger player such as Reilly Smith & Marc Savard going to Florida or Bryan Bickell & Teuvo Teravainen.

I thought about some targets a little more and another one could be Nashville. While there has never been a salary dump trade when a player had greater than 3 years left, I think Turris makes sense for us to take. He's not a negative like most players, but he's severely overpaid and will likely only be getting worse. Assuming they are looking to move him and other teams aren't willing to trade anything for him I think a salary dump trade could like Turris+11th overall/Tomasino+NJ 2020 2nd+2021 2nd or Turris+Tomasino/11th+Trenin+2021 2nd. I think there's some kind of combination of Tomasino, their 11th, NJ 2020 2nd, their 2020 2nd, Trenin, Afanasyev, Tolvanen, and picks in future years that would make sense for us.

YES IDE PREFER PROSPECTS OVER PIX TO ACCELERATE THE REBUILD , caps by accident .

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Turris
Farrance
2020 1st

For

Cholowski
Bowey

Would be a trade I would try to make. Gives Detroit 11th overall this year. A good prospect, and then buyout Turris.

 

[Marky9er]

Turris
Farrance
2020 1st

For

Cholowski
Bowey

Would be a trade I would try to make. Gives Detroit 11th overall this year. A good prospect, and then buyout Turris.

Farrance is (going to be) a free agent, just sign him.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

As far as the draft targets go, Drysdale at #4.

Prioritize, skating, IQ, talent, for the rest.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Farrance is (going to be) a free agent, just sign him.

Not this year?

 

[Marky9er]

Not this year?

He's playing his senior year then he's a free agent at the end. I was reading about it recently, I've wanted him in trade for a while too.

I guess if we do get him in a trade you know they have a deal in place.

 

[HoweFan]

I’m assuming the Caps lose in the first round now that they are down 3-0. Does that improve our 58 pick down to like 53/54? It was sure nice of Edmonton to let us go from 51 to 45 and 113 to 107

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I’m assuming the Caps lose in the first round now that they are down 3-0. Does that improve our 58 pick down to like 53/54? It was sure nice of Edmonton to let us go from 51 to 45 and 113 to 107

I am not sure it can go down a ton, usually it is based on the conference finals. But St. Louis, Tampa and Boston could find themselves in trouble this round as well and they finished above the Caps in the regular season. I think most likely you are looking at the 57th pick or 56th pick if they go out. Of course those same teams can be upended in the second round. So I guess root against Boston, St. Louis, Tampa, Colorado in the next round.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Turris
Farrance
2020 1st

For

Cholowski
Bowey

Would be a trade I would try to make. Gives Detroit 11th overall this year. A good prospect, and then buyout Turris.

We are not paying Turris for 8 years...

 

[Tetsuo]

We are not paying Turris for 8 years...

Turris would be a useful player for us so long as he was kept on a scoring line. He is just way overpaid, partially due to him being under utilized severly, and the contract will likely end poorly. While he is an alright top 6 forward, Nashville fans won't be getting anything good without coughing up an asset along with him.

I still think 11th OA + Turris for Cholowski is a solid framework, though the Wings would for sure have to add.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Turris would be a useful player for us so long as he was kept on a scoring line. He is just way overpaid, partially due to him being under utilized severly, and the contract will likely end poorly. While he is an alright top 6 forward, Nashville fans won't be getting anything good without coughing up an asset along with him.

I still think 11th OA + Turris for Cholowski is a solid framework, though the Wings would for sure have to add.

I wouldn't add to that, I would ask for Tolvanen on top of that...

Ideally I would try to make them eat at least 1 million on that thing.

But I am not adding anything at all to Cholo for Turris and 11th Overall. In fact if that is just it, I want them to eat 2 million or basically the buyout fee for four instead of eight years.

These teams that are in cap hell don't have a lot of options. Not talked about a lot is there are going to be more than a few teams with an internal budget outside of the general cap most look at. There are only so many dance partners. I hope the Ilitch's are one of them, I know Mike would have been less sure about Chris. But you're paying a premium to get your salvation if I am the Wings. Nobody bites this year, great someone will likely be even more desperate next year.

 

[Bench]

I wouldn't add to that, I would ask for Tolvanen on top of that...

Ideally I would try to make them eat at least 1 million on that thing.

Was thinking the same. Turris deal is a total poison pill for them. He has been a vocal critic of his usage. They don't want him. He doesn't want to be there. Anyone taking Turris on is doing that team a huge favor. They need to step up with serious assets or eat the buyout cost for a decade. Their choice, not our problem.

 

[Tetsuo]

I wouldn't add to that, I would ask for Tolvanen on top of that...

Ideally I would try to make them eat at least 1 million on that thing.

But I am not adding anything at all to Cholo for Turris and 11th Overall. In fact if that is just it, I want them to eat 2 million or basically the buyout fee for four instead of eight years.

These teams that are in cap hell don't have a lot of options. Not talked about a lot is there are going to be more than a few teams with an internal budget outside of the general cap most look at. There are only so many dance partners. I hope the Ilitch's are one of them, I know Mike would have been less sure about Chris. But you're paying a premium to get your salvation if I am the Wings. Nobody bites this year, great someone will likely be even more desperate next year.

The predators are absolutely screwed if they don't move Turris. Hes a lockeroom and cap cancer and hes only going to get worse. His contract is going to be at minimum Loui Erikson level bad in a few years, if not worse. His contract is so bad that I question Poile's sanity. Let's not forget that if Weber non-injury retires they will be hit with an unspeakably bad recapture penalty. I guess I'm not sure how to correctly value taking on Turris and his contract. It is going to be such an anchor in the final two years when we are going to be hopefully locking in our core it gives me pause. But he could be a useful piece for us as a top 6 center which helps our depth and bring young guys up to speed.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

The predators are absolutely screwed if they don't move Turris. Hes a lockeroom and cap cancer and hes only going to get worse. His contract is going to be at minimum Loui Erikson level bad in a few years, if not worse. His contract is so bad that I question Poile's sanity. Let's not forget that if Weber non-injury retires they will be hit with an unspeakably bad recapture penalty. I guess I'm not sure how to correctly value taking on Turris and his contract. It is going to be such an anchor in the final two years when we are going to be hopefully locking in our core it gives me pause. But he could be a useful piece for us as a top 6 center which helps our depth and bring young guys up to speed.

Turris has been a bad fit in Nashville. They also immediately cut his ice time by three minutes and a bunch of his opportunities. He scored .5 ppg still this year. He is a right handed center and make no mistake is easily the second best center on our roster for at least the next couple of years.

Not that I think this is a great character assessment but he struggled in Phoenix as well when he had issues with the organization. Strange currently we have the one guy that actually liked playing for Melynk...

That is really why I doubt Yzerman goes for him in terms of he plays when he wants to seemingly, even if the price is substantial to ditch him for Nashville. But we do offer Turris a lot of what he is looking for. A top 6 role, he brings a right handed shot center up our lineup and to our second PP unit. I just wish it wasn't four years. He turned 31 2 days ago, it isn't a big skating issue or injury plaguing him. It is a fit issue. I think there are other dumps we could take, but if they are willing to offer the 11th pick this gets interesting. My guess is Askarov is gone, but there could be a real building block still on the board there. The Preds also might be pretty interested in Glendening to fill a defensive center roll. I think their focus will be ditching Turris and Bonino. Run Jarnkrok and X down the middle next year in their bottom six.

For the Zadina fan club, Turris does likely split up the MLB line and give us more depth. I think you get Bertuzzi - Larkin - Zadina and Mantha goes with Turris to see if they can recreate their World Championship chemistry.

 

[Tetsuo]

Turris has been a bad fit in Nashville. They also immediately cut his ice time by three minutes and a bunch of his opportunities. He scored .5 ppg still this year. He is a right handed center and make no mistake is easily the second best center on our roster for at least the next couple of years.

Not that I think this is a great character assessment but he struggled in Phoenix as well when he had issues with the organization. Strange currently we have the one guy that actually liked playing for Melynk...

That is really why I doubt Yzerman goes for him in terms of he plays when he wants to seemingly, even if the price is substantial to ditch him for Nashville. But we do offer Turris a lot of what he is looking for. A top 6 role, he brings a right handed shot center up our lineup and to our second PP unit. I just wish it wasn't four years. He turned 31 2 days ago, it isn't a big skating issue or injury plaguing him. It is a fit issue. I think there are other dumps we could take, but if they are willing to offer the 11th pick this gets interesting. My guess is Askarov is gone, but there could be a real building block still on the board there. The Preds also might be pretty interested in Glendening to fill a defensive center roll. I think their focus will be ditching Turris and Bonino. Run Jarnkrok and X down the middle next year in their bottom six.

For the Zadina fan club, Turris does likely split up the MLB line and give us more depth. I think you get Bertuzzi - Larkin - Zadina and Mantha goes with Turris to see if they can recreate their World Championship chemistry.

Splitting up BLM has long been my pet theory for how to improve the top 6 into a more effective unit. Bert is a really smart player and I think that pairs well with Zadina, especially with Larkin opening up space.

Now this is Blashill we are talking about, so maybe it doesn't matter .

I think Glendening could be a good piece for them and be the stabilizing bottom 6 center they could really benefit from. Definitely good food for thought there...

My dream would still be Perfetti/Raymond + Askarov but I have a hard time seeing him making it to 11th.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Splitting up BLM has long been my pet theory for how to improve the top 6 into a more effective unit. Bert is a really smart player and I think that pairs well with Zadina, especially with Larkin opening up space.

Now this is Blashill we are talking about, so maybe it doesn't matter .

I think Glendening could be a good piece for them and be the stabilizing bottom 6 center they could really benefit from. Definitely good food for thought there...

My dream would still be Perfetti/Raymond + Askarov but I have a hard time seeing him making it to 11th.

I think Askarov won't get past Minnesota. @Bench will get to have a new best friend in town.

I am not big on splitting them up just cause, Turris had really intriguing chemistry with Mantha, enough for me to be okay with it. Currently I think they stick together, but we will see how the summer unfolds. My other #2C target right now would probably be Lars Eller, I think Washington will have to part ways with him.

 

[Tetsuo]

I think Askarov won't get past Minnesota. @Bench will get to have a new best friend in town.

I am not big on splitting them up just cause, Turris had really intriguing chemistry with Mantha, enough for me to be okay with it. Currently I think they stick together, but we will see how the summer unfolds. My other #2C target right now would probably be Lars Eller, I think Washington will have to part ways with him.

Im a big believer in Askarov but not at 4th OA. I'm a believer in BPA and pretty much after the top 7 I think Askarov is too intriguing to ignore.

My big target this off season is still NYI and trying to pry Dobson out of them. They are screwed in a very big way when it comes to Barzal, Pulock and Toews needing moderate to major pay increases.

 

[Bench]

I think Askarov won't get past Minnesota. @Bench will get to have a new best friend in town.

Yeah, no way Askarov gets past Minnesota. Dub seems to be nearing the end and they don't have any real star options coming up. You might be thinking, "What about that Stalock kid they played this year?" You'll be forgiven for not realizing he's been playing like 18 games a season for the last decade and is already 33. Stalock is my vote for most invisible goalie in the NHL.

So far their plan in goal is a big shrug from Guerin.

Wild not committed to Stalock, Dubnyk for next season

"No, the hierarchy's not clear," Guerin said. "Whoever's playing well is going to play. I was disappointed in the goaltending this year. Al had a tremendous year and Devan had an off year, and it needs to be better. That's just the way it is. And if I told you anything different, I'd be lying to you. It was not a strong point for us.

"Can those two turn it around for you next year? No, I can't say that. If we don't get the feeling that we're going to be better, then we're going to improve it."

Note the bolded part. Gee, I wonder what happens if the best goalie prospect in years falls into their laps.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Yeah, no way Askarov gets past Minnesota. Dub seems to be nearing the end and they don't have any real star options coming up. You might be thinking, "What about that Stalock kid they played this year?" You'll be forgiven for not realizing he's been playing like 18 games a season for the last decade and is already 33. Stalock is my vote for most invisible goalie in the NHL.

So far their plan in goal is a big shrug from Guerin.

Wild not committed to Stalock, Dubnyk for next season



Note the bolded part. Gee, I wonder what happens if the best goalie prospect in years falls into their laps.

Oh I don't forget about Stalock, he just sucks... He is a guy I didn't even really like that much in the AHL. Also a name that occasionally comes up when people would talk World Championships with USA and I was always in the no thanks category.

Yeah Askarov is going to the Wild. Good chance that a couple Russians will be their best players in a few years.

Wild fans seem to think they will go forward for what it is worth...

Man if Carolina gets him with the Leafs pick... Buying out Marleau for Askarov, wish we could have been the one on that deal.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Im a big believer in Askarov but not at 4th OA. I'm a believer in BPA and pretty much after the top 7 I think Askarov is too intriguing to ignore.

My big target this off season is still NYI and trying to pry Dobson out of them. They are screwed in a very big way when it comes to Barzal, Pulock and Toews needing moderate to major pay increases.

Dobson is too big and promising a prospect to be moved in a salary dump in my opinion.