Prospect Info: 2020 Devils-Centric Mock Draft, Playoff First Round Edition

SJinNewJersey

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Steven, thanks for all the excellent posts.

In my opinion, I don't see the Devils coming out of the 1st round of this draft with at least one defenseman. But we shall see.
 
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HenriquesJawLine

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It's tough because Rossi or Holtz would be awesome but where else are you getting a player like Sanderson? You need to draft those guys. I know BPA always but 3 picks makes it interesting. Center is in good shape at the NHL level, LW has some promising prospects, this is a deep draft at RW. If you can get Sanderson at 7 and a fun RW talent at 18 that has to be considered an overwhelming success right? Not like we'd be reaching for Sanderson either based on where respected people say he has a chance of going. I'm the last person that wants to rehash 2015 but look at what the Provorov/Konecny combo has done for that franchise.
 

Spoiled Bratt

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It's tough because Rossi or Holtz would be awesome but where else are you getting a player like Sanderson? You need to draft those guys. I know BPA always but 3 picks makes it interesting. Center is in good shape at the NHL level, LW has some promising prospects, this is a deep draft at RW. If you can get Sanderson at 7 and a fun RW talent at 18 that has to be considered an overwhelming success right? Not like we'd be reaching for Sanderson either based on where respected people say he has a chance of going. I'm the last person that wants to rehash 2015 but look at what the Provorov/Konecny combo has done for that franchise.

You didn’t hit, you smashed the nail right on the head.

We got our superstar forward in Jack Hughes last year, we got our "Patrice Bergeron" in Nico Hischier and we can get a stud forward with picks #18 and #20.

What we don’t have is a stud dman and outside of Ty Smith, who I view as a very solid 2nd pairing dman, our pipeline is bone dry when it comes to potential 1st pairing dmen. Sanderson would not only fill THE major need we’ve been looking to fill for over a decade but he is ranked exactly in the area we’re picking in.

Having to watch our mediocre blueline for the last 10+ years, I’m actually shocked that Sanderson (or Drysdale for that matter) isn’t getting an unanimous vote at #7. Getting a flashy forward would be nice but it wouldn’t move the needle as much as a legit dman.

That Provorov & Konecny example is gold and that’s exactly what we can be doing if we take Sanderson & Jarvis/Amirov/Perreault/Lapierre/Mysak.
 

Unknown Caller

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You didn’t hit, you smashed the nail right on the head.

We got our superstar forward in Jack Hughes last year, we got our "Patrice Bergeron" in Nico Hischier and we can get a stud forward with picks #18 and #20.

What we don’t have is a stud dman and outside of Ty Smith, who I view as a very solid 2nd pairing dman, our pipeline is bone dry when it comes to potential 1st pairing dmen. Sanderson would not only fill THE major need we’ve been looking to fill for over a decade but he is ranked exactly in the area we’re picking in.

Having to watch our mediocre blueline for the last 10+ years, I’m actually shocked that Sanderson (or Drysdale for that matter) isn’t getting an unanimous vote at #7. Getting a flashy forward would be nice but it wouldn’t move the needle as much as a legit dman.

That Provorov & Konecny example is gold and that’s exactly what we can be doing if we take Sanderson & Jarvis/Amirov/Perreault/Lapierre/Mysak.

Needing a stud defenseman is all well and good, but that’s an awful reason to draft a player. “We need a shut down defenseman, so even though a winger with unanimous game breaking talent is on the board, we’re going to take the other guy.” Again, this is just the inverse rationale of what led us to Zacha in 2015.

If Sanderson was Dahlin, you obviously sprint to the podium and take him. The reality is that he isn’t a no brainer, and the forwards on the board will have immense talent and upside. I’m a fan of Sanderson, but I’m not sure I could personally justify letting Marco Rossi or Lucas Raymond slip to another team while we take a guy who probably caps out as a Ryan McDonagh type.
 
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Tretyak 20

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I must say, you haven't watched enough Sanderson film from December through March if you're saying this. The kid's skating is not "good to great" -- he's an exceptional skater. We're not talking Quinn Hughes, but we're certainly talking a kid who should be a top 20-25 skating defenseman in the entire NHL.

If you see nothing elite in his game, there's definitely a need to go back on his film. Jake Sanderson's gap control and positioning are as good as any draft-eligible defenseman in the last decade. I don't think anyone would disagree with that. Then when you top that off with his incredible awareness in closing those gaps on advancing forwards, it's almost freakish. He's as difficult to beat one-on-one upon entering the offensive zone with possession as seven-year NHL veterans who are known for defensive excellence.

I've written about this at length, but judging Sanderson on his statistics is a brutal mistake. The US-NTDP team opens its season with an NCAA-heavy schedule before moving to more of a USHL-centric schedule. Sanderson was named as team captain and then put in a defense-first role alongside offensive-minded defenseman Eamon Powell from the outset of the season. Early on, he was certainly reticent to take too many offensive chances and played very conservatively. As the season wore on, Sanderson's rocket up the draft charts coincided with his increased offensive aggressiveness -- the kid really started believing in himself and controlled the play for all 200 feet of ice pretty much shift in and shift out.

I've said this a ton, but Jake Sanderson will never be Jamie Drysdale offensively. But this is not what his biggest proponents ask of him. What you're looking at is a faster Ryan Suter -- a kid who can score 40-50 points annually while giving you high-end mobility and shut-down defensive play. A 25-minute, all-situations LD whom opposing teams will be forced to routinely game plan against. I fail to see how this is "limited upside" as his detractors suggest. Are they strictly judging defensemen by number of points? Because I don't think there is a GM in the history of the NHL who would prefer Shayne Gostisbehere over Jake Slavin. I certainly wouldn't.

Do you have links to any film from December to March? I'd be really interested to see it, because from all the film I've watched of Sanderson, I'd say EE is spot on.
 

Nico Hischier

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I can’t believe he went in the 4th round. Then you have pesce going in the second. How does Carolina do it? haha that’s the only thing that bothers me is we have to use a top ten pick on a defenseman we hope becomes as good as Slavin.

Sanderson is probably a very safe pick. I mean look back at drafts where defenseman that maybe could be comparables ended up. I’m looking at Darnell Nurse taken 7th who is top 4 not really a #1 though. Or gudbranson who was picked 3rd and still carved out a nhl career. Most defenseman picked top ten have made an nhl career... the only exception I can think off the top of my head is griffin Reinhart

The thing is there are only a few defenseman that were picked top 10 to actually turn out to be a #1. Doughty, Hedman, Seth Jones in my opinion. Some others could be there soon (heiskenen, makar, Hughes) Or they could also drop off like ghost did.

this is a bit of a long winded post but the point I am trying to make is Sanderson would be a safe pick for us over someone like maybe Raymond who might never make it.
 

Nico Hischier

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Needing a stud defenseman is all well and good, but that’s an awful reason to draft a player. “We need a shut down defenseman, so even though a winger with unanimous game breaking talent is on the board, we’re going to take the other guy.” Again, this is just the inverse rationale of what led us to Zacha in 2015.

If Sanderson was Dahlin, you obviously sprint to the podium and take him. The reality is that he isn’t a no brainer, and the forwards on the board will have immense talent and upside. I’m a fan of Sanderson, but I’m not sure I could personally justify letting Marco Rossi or Mason Raymond slip to another team while we take a guy who probably caps out as a Ryan McDonagh type.
I’m with you on Rossi. I think if Rossi was a little bit taller, he would be the unanimous #3 after Byfield
 
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Peter Sidorkiewicz

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Needing a stud defenseman is all well and good, but that’s an awful reason to draft a player. “We need a shut down defenseman, so even though a winger with unanimous game breaking talent is on the board, we’re going to take the other guy.” Again, this is just the inverse rationale of what led us to Zacha in 2015.

If Sanderson was Dahlin, you obviously sprint to the podium and take him. The reality is that he isn’t a no brainer, and the forwards on the board will have immense talent and upside. I’m a fan of Sanderson, but I’m not sure I could personally justify letting Marco Rossi or Lucas Raymond slip to another team while we take a guy who probably caps out as a Ryan McDonagh type.
I think Drysdale is a no brainer. He is consistently ranked ahead of Rossi on most draft rankings. And I would put him the 4th best player of the draft behind Laf, Byfield and Stutzle.

Raymond for me is a little risky, due to the season he just had and size concerns. No doubt he has talent, but he played as a 4th liner for his team. After getting burnt with the Zacha and McLeod picks being disappointing thus far, I would rather take a safer player in Sanderson over Raymond. I would also take Holtz over Raymond because he is bigger and we need a goalscorer more than a playmaker.

if the choice is Rossi v Sanderson. That’s a tough pick. Rossi no doubt has the bigger upside but there is more talent at forward in this first round compared to D. Therefore that’s why I probably lean towards Sanderson over Rossi, knowing that at pick 18 and 20 we are going to get a very good forward. The next best Dman, Guhle and Schneider, I think both would be gone come pick 18.

My pick 7 preference list (Assuming Laf, Byfield and Stutzle are gone):

1. Drysdale
2. Sanderson
3. Rossi
4. Holtz
 

StevenToddIves

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Steven, thanks for all the excellent posts.

In my opinion, I don't see the Devils coming out of the 1st round of this draft with at least one defenseman. But we shall see.

I think the dilemma with the Devils drafting a D is that 2020 is a forward-heavy draft. If (as I assume) Drysdale and Sanderson are off the board at #7, the Devils are certainly taking a forward there. The next tier of D is again just two layers, Schneider and Guhle, and as such they are likely to be off the board by #18.

Do the Devils reach for an O'Rourke or Barron at #20? I'm a huge (and vocal) fan of O'Rourke and I love Barron's potential, but can the Devils pass on potential impact top 6 forwards for another mid-pairing defense candidate? Ty Smith is the only Devils D prospect with top-pairing upside, though we're still unsure if his future is as a LD (he shoots left) or the RD (which Smith prefers).

The Devils actually now have nice depth at LD, although all their prospects are mid-to-bottom pairing types. Bahl, Misyul, Okhotyuk and Vukojevic are all very promising, but I don't think many pundits see them as top pairing guys. At RD, the Devils certainly need depth beyond two more mid-to-bottom pairing prospects in Walsh and McCarthy.

I would say O'Rourke would slot about even with Bahl in the Devils LD prospect pool. Barron would jump to the top of the Devils prospects at RD, unless we're counting Ty Smith there.

Even so, I can't see passing on some of the tremendous forwards who could be available at #18 or #20 unless Braden Schneider or Kaiden Guhle slip to those slots.
 
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StevenToddIves

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It's tough because Rossi or Holtz would be awesome but where else are you getting a player like Sanderson? You need to draft those guys. I know BPA always but 3 picks makes it interesting. Center is in good shape at the NHL level, LW has some promising prospects, this is a deep draft at RW. If you can get Sanderson at 7 and a fun RW talent at 18 that has to be considered an overwhelming success right? Not like we'd be reaching for Sanderson either based on where respected people say he has a chance of going. I'm the last person that wants to rehash 2015 but look at what the Provorov/Konecny combo has done for that franchise.

I have Schneider going at #4 overall so, no I don't think we could call him a reach at #7. I just don't think he'll fall to #7.
 

thethinglonger

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Really interesting mock Steve. Always appreciate the amount of effort you put into these. This is definitely one of those, "what can you do?" scenarios where the few higher-end defensive prospects are picked right before our spot. Still, leaving the first day with Rossi, Jarvis, and Holloway would be a big win in my book. You work with the cards you're dealt and if there are no higher-end defensive prospects at our spots, so be it, we pick our guys, be happy and try to keep building. It's just tough because we'll likely need to invest significant draft capital into building our defensive corps. It makes our timeline a bit tougher, but injecting that amount of talent into our system will definitely be to our benefit. I like the gamble on Holloway at that spot. If he can put it all together, he'd be an ideal linemate for Hughes.

I don't mean to sound negative here either. How many times have we said here something along the lines of "jeez, if only we could have a whole team of Nico Hischiers..."? Well, Rossi absolutely fits that mold. (His coach even compared his play to Nico's.) He's a ferocious attacker and an incredible two-way game. The area I'd like to see him improve is adding a little more explosiveness to his skating, but he's built like a fire hydrant and is immediately ready for NHL play.

As for d-men at 20, I do really like O'Rourke and Barron (O'Rourke moreso) so those would be interesting options as well..

On a quick side note, I love the projection of Lundell to Minnesota. He always struck me as a player that would be a great fit there.
 

thethinglonger

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Just noticed you already mentioned O'Rourke and Barron above. I guess if we're really dead-set on picking a d-man there, we could trade down from 20 and consider picking a guy like Topi Niemela (although he's more of an offensively focused defenseman) or Samuel Johannesson...depends on how far the team trades down.

Also should note here that while my viewing of him this season wasn't very good, and he's generally projected to go around the mid-2nd or the 3rd round...Mark Edwards and HockeyProspect have Yan Kuznetsov at 32 in their rankings, and I hold their opinion very highly.
 

Al Belin

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I’m with you on Rossi. I think if Rossi was a little bit taller, he would be the unanimous #3 after Byfield
But he's not taller. I feel like the Devils have too many "if they were 3 inches taller" guys. That doesnt mean this guy isnt the pick. I'd take Brayden Point on this team right now. But its a concern of mine.
 

FooteBahl

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But he's not taller. I feel like the Devils have too many "if they were 3 inches taller" guys. That doesnt mean this guy isnt the pick. I'd take Brayden Point on this team right now. But its a concern of mine.
My wife always mentions “wishing for an extra 3 inches,” but I’m already 6’3”...I mean 6’6” would be a little freakish no?
 

Brodeur

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In case this creates a domino effect on your mock drafts, but Bob McKenzie alluded to the Kings taking Stutzle during a radio interview although he quickly tried to laugh it off as an educated guess rather than something he knew for sure. But I could almost picture Bob winking as he said it.
 

StevenToddIves

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Really interesting mock Steve. Always appreciate the amount of effort you put into these. This is definitely one of those, "what can you do?" scenarios where the few higher-end defensive prospects are picked right before our spot. Still, leaving the first day with Rossi, Jarvis, and Holloway would be a big win in my book. You work with the cards you're dealt and if there are no higher-end defensive prospects at our spots, so be it, we pick our guys, be happy and try to keep building. It's just tough because we'll likely need to invest significant draft capital into building our defensive corps. It makes our timeline a bit tougher, but injecting that amount of talent into our system will definitely be to our benefit. I like the gamble on Holloway at that spot. If he can put it all together, he'd be an ideal linemate for Hughes.

I don't mean to sound negative here either. How many times have we said here something along the lines of "jeez, if only we could have a whole team of Nico Hischiers..."? Well, Rossi absolutely fits that mold. (His coach even compared his play to Nico's.) He's a ferocious attacker and an incredible two-way game. The area I'd like to see him improve is adding a little more explosiveness to his skating, but he's built like a fire hydrant and is immediately ready for NHL play.

As for d-men at 20, I do really like O'Rourke and Barron (O'Rourke moreso) so those would be interesting options as well..

On a quick side note, I love the projection of Lundell to Minnesota. He always struck me as a player that would be a great fit there.

I agree with everything you say here, pretty much. I certainly considered O'Rourke and Barron with the Devils #20 pick. I think O'Rourke has the best compete level of any D in the 2020 draft and he's smart as hell. He's terrific in his own end and has good, NHL 2PP-type offensive ability as well. Barron has top 15-type talent but really had a rough draft-eligible season which could drop him to the bottom of the first round. With the Devils dearth at RD, he might be a nice gamble to take at #20.

Ultimately, I went with Holloway because that's also a player who would be completely unique in the Devils organization. Though Foote is also a power LW by definition, he does not play the Brady Tkachuk-type, frenetic and physical game which Holloway can give you. I think Holloway would be such a boon to Jack Hughes, and that's why I went with him at #20.

I've said before that -- if Drysdale or Sanderson are available at #7 -- that's who the Devils should and will pick, regardless of what forwards are available. But the fact is that players like Drysdale are often drafted before they are projected (we can call it the Cale Makar Rule) and players like Sanderson are very very very often drafted before they are projected (we can call it the Seider/Heiskanen/Soderstrom etc Rule). In a defense-thin 2020 class, I think the top defensemen will all be off the board earlier than expected, and we may see teams reach in the late first-round/very early second for names like Villeneuve, Grans, Moore, Jurmo, Wallinder and Kleven.

Personally, I'd be thrilled if the Devils could get Drysdale/Sanderson at #7 and Guhle/Schneider at #18. But I'm not sure those guys will last. If not? I'd prefer not to reach for a D, and I do think there will be some nice value picks at D in the middle rounds.

One guy I will be talking about a lot is Brock Faber -- whom I consider to be (by far) the most underrated D in the class of 2020. He's a very solid 6'0-195 and a very good (though not exceptional) skater. Faber is extremely strong and can play the physical game, though we're not talking about a kid who looks for the huge hit. He's smart, smart, smart and very advanced in his defensive game. Though the US-NTDP used him exclusively in a shut-down capacity, he's shown some nice flashes of offensive upside -- he's a crisp passer and features a nice, hard point shot. I think if there's a Jake Slavin in the 2020 draft, it's Faber. At the very least, I think he can be an Ethan Bear-type -- and Bear is one heck of a player. He would have been the best defenseman on the Devils this past season.

There are a few other D I like for the middle rounds, who I think have mid-pairing potential. At LD, I like Daemon Hunt, Donovan Sebrango, Eemil Viro and Mitch Miller. At RD I clearly covet Faber, but I'm also high on Ruben Rafkin, Michael Benning, Michael Krutil, Jake Boltmann and Kaspar Puutio.

Of course, I've been pumping the tires for RD Mason Langenbrunner to be the Devils 7th round pick.

In the end, I've never been a fan of reaching for a player due to positional need. If the Devils draft in the 3rd round ("if") and they're deciding between a big, intriguing D like Jurmo and a potential high-end F like Tristen Robins, I would take Robins in a heartbeat. It wouldn't even be a thought.

As always, I love hearing your opinions @thethinglonger -- and I can't wait to read your draft rankings.
 

StevenToddIves

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In case this creates a domino effect on your mock drafts, but Bob McKenzie alluded to the Kings taking Stutzle during a radio interview although he quickly tried to laugh it off as an educated guess rather than something he knew for sure. But I could almost picture Bob winking as he said it.

That would be a dream come true... for Ottawa.
 

SteveCangialosi123

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It’s really astounding to see people talk about Rossi’s size being so detrimental on the main board when there’s guys like Point and Marchand dominating the league. It would be a big concern if he was 150 pounds but he’s not - he’s very built. His listed weigh is heavier than Nico, in fact. Though I think Nico has added some weight by now.
 

StevenToddIves

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Just noticed you already mentioned O'Rourke and Barron above. I guess if we're really dead-set on picking a d-man there, we could trade down from 20 and consider picking a guy like Topi Niemela (although he's more of an offensively focused defenseman) or Samuel Johannesson...depends on how far the team trades down.

Also should note here that while my viewing of him this season wasn't very good, and he's generally projected to go around the mid-2nd or the 3rd round...Mark Edwards and HockeyProspect have Yan Kuznetsov at 32 in their rankings, and I hold their opinion very highly.

Kuznetsov was very, very impressive for the University of Connecticut this year. To see an 18 year old kid dominate physical battles against 22 and 23 year old forwards with regularity was truly impressive.

I would say that Kuznetsov's skating will limit him to a third-pairing role at the NHL level. I do think he could be a very, very good third-pairing guy, though. Still, for a similar-type player I would prefer Tyler Kleven, another big and physical shut-down LD, but one who offers greater mobility.

My problem with focusing Devils-draft writing on either of these players, is I believe they will both be drafted in the 25-60 range in a defense-thin draft year, which likely puts them out of the Devils draft window. Also, the Devils pretty much covered the "shut-down LD" hole last year with picks of Okhotyuk, Misyul and Vukojevic, followed by the trade for Bahl.

P.S. I also really like Niemela. I rated him quite highly in my Top 75 list.
 
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Edmonton East

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I must say, you haven't watched enough Sanderson film from December through March if you're saying this. The kid's skating is not "good to great" -- he's an exceptional skater. We're not talking Quinn Hughes, but we're certainly talking a kid who should be a top 20-25 skating defenseman in the entire NHL.

If you see nothing elite in his game, there's definitely a need to go back on his film. Jake Sanderson's gap control and positioning are as good as any draft-eligible defenseman in the last decade. I don't think anyone would disagree with that. Then when you top that off with his incredible awareness in closing those gaps on advancing forwards, it's almost freakish. He's as difficult to beat one-on-one upon entering the offensive zone with possession as seven-year NHL veterans who are known for defensive excellence.

I've written about this at length, but judging Sanderson on his statistics is a brutal mistake. The US-NTDP team opens its season with an NCAA-heavy schedule before moving to more of a USHL-centric schedule. Sanderson was named as team captain and then put in a defense-first role alongside offensive-minded defenseman Eamon Powell from the outset of the season. Early on, he was certainly reticent to take too many offensive chances and played very conservatively. As the season wore on, Sanderson's rocket up the draft charts coincided with his increased offensive aggressiveness -- the kid really started believing in himself and controlled the play for all 200 feet of ice pretty much shift in and shift out.

I've said this a ton, but Jake Sanderson will never be Jamie Drysdale offensively. But this is not what his biggest proponents ask of him. What you're looking at is a faster Ryan Suter -- a kid who can score 40-50 points annually while giving you high-end mobility and shut-down defensive play. A 25-minute, all-situations LD whom opposing teams will be forced to routinely game plan against. I fail to see how this is "limited upside" as his detractors suggest. Are they strictly judging defensemen by number of points? Because I don't think there is a GM in the history of the NHL who would prefer Shayne Gostisbehere over Jake Slavin. I certainly wouldn't.
See, here's the thing, you are making definitive statements about his tremendous growth as a player based on THREE MONTHS of play. He didn't show enough earlier in his career for me to take THREE MONTHS of play as proof he is ELITE skating wise and EXCELLENT offensively.

I said you were wrong to call his skating ELITE...ironically you must agree with me since you point out he is clearly behind Q Hughes (who actually has ELITE skating). I don't see why you are debating this.

I also don't get why you are arguing his playing style with me. I think we agree on that. The disagreement comes into risk vs reward where I view him maxing out as middle pair (high end #3) and you view him as not only a top pair, but a true #1 D. Maybe he takes a massive leap next year, but I don't see THAT type of upside right now.
 
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