Buffalo Bills 2020 Buffalo Bills Part 9

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misterchainsaw

Preparing PHASE TWO!
Nov 3, 2005
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footballoutsiders.com (creators of the DVOA metric) continue to have the #1 weighted DVOA ranking in the league (where games played more recently have more weight).

They have Buffalo has the 2nd most likely to win the Super Bowl at 22.2%. Green Bay is the only team higher, and that's because having LA in the divisional playoffs is a much easier game than Baltimore (or NO and TB playing each other).

The DVOA metric actually really liked the Bills game last week. Without opponent adjustments, they had a VOA of 22% vs. the Colts VOA of 2%, suggesting they would win that game as played about 65% of the time.
 

Zman5778

Moderator
Oct 4, 2005
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I'm not sure an AGM leaving for a GM position is even allowed to 'gut' his former team. It's one thing to let a guy interview and leave for an upgraded position, but wouldnt Buffalo have to give permission for him to 'take' more personel if they are under contract? I guess they could resign or something, but how often does that happen?

Moving organizations for promotions isn't really restricted. So if Schoen leaves to take a GM role in Carolina, he could theoretically take Dan Morgan with him and promote Morgan to AGM.
 

Buffaloed

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Feb 27, 2002
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I agree, losing multiple personnel would be a big issue for the team
The flip side of that is the Bills front office is becoming one of the most sought after places to work for aspiring NFL execs and talent evaluators. It's a competitive field and people want to go to an organization that provides an opportunity to advance to the next level. In the Nix/Whaley days they had to settle for table scraps. Guys whose careers were going nowhere. Beane will be able to hire the best of the best. Success breeds success.
 
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brian_griffin

"Eric Cartman?"
May 10, 2007
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From the previous closed thread:
So.... any free agent RBs out there? Or do they just turn to Antonio Williams? I'd really rather not see Yeldon getting 20 snaps next week.
If the Bills intend to run the ball, as I hope they do. I strongly prefer Williams over Yeldon. Williams is a tough runner. I don't care if it was garbage time vs. Miami.

Antonio looked like the most powerful runner we have last week, I feel like inserting him into the lineup could be a total game-changer for us. Yeldon and Taiwan need to stay off the field, give Antonio the handoffs and Motor the passes.
Agreed.

a defeated defense, not a good one. that was like a preseason game at that point. yeah his run was promising but the tony love fest is a bit much, theyve seen him all year in practice, if he was such a world beater they would've elevated him earlier.
I'd be shocked if they practiced hard / aggressively enough to showcase Williams' power / determination.

I would go with Antonio Williams over Yeldon. He runs like a guy with a chip on his shoulder. He was impressive against the Dolphins, abeit, the game was over by then. But I like his upside. It's a good change up from Singletary's style. Moss has been okay as a rookie this year, it's unfortunate he was hurt. But I do think the Bills run game can improve. When the defence is expecting Allen to pass on almost every down, the Bills backs should be ripping off positive carries on a more frequent basis, Williams seems to be a back that can possess this.
Exactly. Plus, the Ravens won't have much film on him, nor experience against him.

Random question Bills fans. Who has read 100 Things Bills Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die? Found it on the shelf of my local used bookstore. Enjoyed the only edition I have read (Red Wings) and generally hear great things about the series. As I was browsing the chapters and the book I noticed no mention of Bills Mafia. Is your legendary fan base and tailgaters covered and I just missed it? Honestly, reading about Bills Mafia would be the primary interest in the book but, alas, Bills Mafia may have been ghosted by the author.
I have the book. Christmas gift from my wife or my cousin a few years ago. Haven't read all of it; been a while since I looked at it. I knew about half the stories in there, from what I recall.

(and)
The book was published in 2012. Bills mafia started in 2011 and didn’t gain steam until after publishing.
Moreover, many long-time fans don't necessarily align with certain game-day antics which are both disproportionately high in media publicity yet disproportionately low in common sense.

Current thread: I don't like the Bills matchup vs. Baltimore at all. I'm most concerned about the Bills run D matchup against Ingram, Dobbins, Jackson. Both the Bills edge contain and their ability to slow/clog the interior to reduce second-level tackles are suspect. Similarly, the Bills can't afford another imbalance in time of possession (~10-minute IND advantage in 1st half; game ended with 8.5-minute IND advantage) from a strong run game and hope the Ravens have a repeat of the Colts' red-zone futility.

I think it will come down to turnovers and points off turnovers.
 
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5 Minute Major

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There is more than "running hard" to be a running back in the NFL, especially in a Bills style offense.

I 100 % would rather have a veteran Yeldon, who is reliable in picking up blitzers, than a guy like Williams who is not proven. The playoffs are not a time to experiment.
 
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Ace

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I’m curious how the Ravens defend this time around. What they did last year was perfect but I somehow think that blitzing Allen and daring him to throw downfield against man coverage is going to work as well this time.
 

Husko

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Jun 30, 2006
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There is more than "running hard" to be a running back in the NFL, especially in a Bills style offense.

I 100 % would rather have a veteran Yeldon, who is reliable in picking up blitzers, than a guy like Williams who is not proven. The playoffs are not a time to experiment.
Maybe the answer is activating both of them and finding a spot to deactivate elsewhere.
 
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Rowley Birkin

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Oct 31, 2004
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Inject this into my veins.

Lamar vs Allen. It's going to be a thing of beauty. I love both these QBs. Two of my favorites in the league.

Exactly right.

Personally speaking the NFL has provided me with so much escapism this season.

I ended up watching the Browns/Steelers game Sunday night. Didn't end until 4.30am our time & i only got 3 hrs sleep. But it was like a drug i couldn't give up.

Win or lose the Bills' have done themselves & the fanbase proud this season. And you know that the success is going to be sustainable.

Hopefully the Sabres can follow suit. At least to sone degree.
 

Waterfowlist

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What’s interesting to me is that with all those rushing yards, Jackson had the same number of rushing TDs as Allen.
 

TehDoak

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I'm very interested to see how it goes. My big thing is that the Ravens aren't going to beat you through the air. Lamar has only thrown over 200 yards 5 times this season and none over 300 yards. I think Buffalo should be able to get more pressure on him than they did get on Rivers. Really the matchup that is going to decide the game is Ravens D vs Buffalo's offense. I think a healthier Beasley and a less disciplined defensive group (Indy essentially played a perfect defensive game vs Buffalo with minimal penalties, Baltimore is the 2nd most penalized team in the league). We'll see what happens.
 

brian_griffin

"Eric Cartman?"
May 10, 2007
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I'm very interested to see how it goes. My big thing is that the Ravens aren't going to beat you through the air. Lamar has only thrown over 200 yards 5 times this season and none over 300 yards. I think Buffalo should be able to get more pressure on him than they did get on Rivers. Really the matchup that is going to decide the game is Ravens D vs Buffalo's offense. I think a healthier Beasley and a less disciplined defensive group (Indy essentially played a perfect defensive game vs Buffalo with minimal penalties, Baltimore is the 2nd most penalized team in the league). We'll see what happens.
If BUF can't do at least as good a job as TEN did against the Ravens rushing attack, I think the above is of increasingly secondary importance.

I expect BAL will pass <20 times. If I'm BAL, I plan on 40+ rushing attempts, distributed among the backs & Jackson, green light Jackson to take off when ever he sees an opportunity, and seek to get 15+ rushing first downs, 250+ yards, and 35-40 minutes in time of possession. That alone should be good for 4 scores and at least as many points as they put up against TEN. If I'm BAL, I keep running when tied, in the lead, or down by 14 points or less with more than 7 minutes remaining in the game.

I have little faith in a tired Bills defense / defensive depth to get stops if the Bills-Ravens Divisional weekend game unfolds the way the Titans-Ravens Ultimate Extreme Ultra Mega Super Wild Card weekend game did.
 
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StlSwedes

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We really need a better running game, can you imagine if we had a Kamara, Cook, Henry going into Saturdays game?

I hope BBB and McD double down on our strengths in the draft this year. Draft an explosive back to compliment Moss and Singletary. If Know can take a step forward again we could be set at TE but the coaches will be able to evaluate his growth better then us. This offense needs to continue to grow/evolve in order to stay ahead. But with hosting playoff games in Buffalo the Bills need to make sure they can attack the edges in the running game to get another type of chunk plays.

Defensively the Bills needs to target a LB/Safety hybrid athlete who can match up against modern TE's. This gadget role appears to be more and more important in this passing league and I think TE match-ups have been a headache for the Bills all season.
 
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OkimLom

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If BUF can't do at least as good a job as TEN did against the Ravens rushing attack, I think the above is of increasingly secondary importance.

I expect BAL will pass <20 times. If I'm BAL, I plan on 40+ rushing attempts, distributed among the backs & Jackson, green light Jackson to take off when ever he sees an opportunity, and seek to get 15+ rushing first downs, 250+ yards, and 35-40 minutes in time of possession. That alone should be good for 4 scores and at least as many points as they put up against TEN. If I'm BAL, I keep running when tied, in the lead, or down by 14 points or less with more than 7 minutes remaining in the game.

I have little faith in a tired Bills defense / defensive depth to get stops if the Bills-Ravens Divisional weekend game unfolds the way the Titans-Ravens Ultimate Extreme Ultra Mega Super Wild Card weekend game did.

If Buffalo can be as effective as they were on offense vs Indy, I think they can give Baltimore fits, and in turn force them to rely on Lamar's arm more often. TEN was downright bad offensively in their playcalling, and are built for close games (hence the comebacks that Tannehill had) or when they have the lead. They are not a team that will be explosive and a threat to comeback from 2+ scores consistently. Buffalo is a different offense they will need to contend with. When they have faced offenses that can explode quickly, with quick elusive offensive weapons, their defense hasn't been effective. Their two best offenses that they have faced all year were Cleveland and Kansas City.

The key for Buffalo will be their defense. If they can get off the field better than last week, Baltimore will have a tough time to keep up with Buffalo.
 
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