Speculation: 2020-21 LA Kings News/Rumors/Roster Discussion Part V

Discussion in 'Los Angeles Kings' started by kingsboy11, Mar 19, 2021.

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  1. kingsboy11 Quinton Byfield no matter what

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    Continue here
     
  2. YP44 Registered User

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    So ya, lets continue bashing Dom. His "model" is basically all about goals scored above or below expectation.

    I like him for some stuff, but he is very critical. I used to really like Rob Vollman, who now works for the kings, as he would come onto the local radio station here. He is more of a guy that, to me, uses advance stats practically. For Dom it is the be all and end all.
     
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  3. onlyalad Registered User

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    upload_2021-3-19_10-54-17.png
    I will not pretend this is true, but if the Kings did trade quick who would be their expansion draft bait? And would it damage their chances to maybe make the playoffs this year?
     
  4. johnjm22 16,005

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    People can be annoyed by those comments/rankings in the Athletic, but it's not like they don't have a point.

    The Kings are averaging a pathetic 1.67 5v5 goals per game. That's usually a pretty good indicator that your team sucks.

    For perspective the lowly Ducks average 1.74 and the Sharks average 1.95.
     
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  5. LT Dan Undocumented User

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    This is me asking out of ignorance- would we be able to expose Grosenick with this tenure in the NHL and AHL?
     
  6. driller1 Dry Island Reject

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    Amadio was put on waivers??

    Now who will be the designated whipping boy? Carter? Macdermid? Maatta? We should set up a new poll!
     
  7. YP44 Registered User

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    pfff wagner easy
     
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  8. kilowatt Registered User

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    Perhaps, but the Kings are just about the most disciplined team in the league and have the highest net penalty differential of any team. They're also one of the best teams on the power play. Advanced stats don't paint the whole picture.
     
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  9. johnjm22 16,005

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    The Kings don't have a lot of organizational goaltending depth right now. Trading Quick would leave them very vulnerable.
     
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  10. Stimpythecat Registered User

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    Not trading Quick. The rumblings earlier were the Kings were happy with the goaltending tandem. Plus, the kings need quick for the expansion draft.
     
  11. KingTech Registered User

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    Amadio down MacDermid next please hockey gods
     
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  12. kilowatt Registered User

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    I'd love to draft Wallstedt if we miss out on one of the defensemen. Quick -> Petersen -> Wallstedt.
     
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  13. LT Dan Undocumented User

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    very very good point.
    If this did theoretically happen, we would need to get another goalie back for depth

    Anyone: Does exposing Grosenick count as exposing a goalie if we protect Cal Worthington?
     
  14. KingTech Registered User

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    Easy fix any trade of quick gets a goalie back as a part of the package
     
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  15. BigBrown Fly at eleven.

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    Quick is in the same category as Dustin Brown. Sure some teams might be interested but they aren't gonna offer anything of value. The Kings don't need the cap space so they're better off keeping them.
     
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  16. johnjm22 16,005

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    I do expect the Kings to be drafting a goaltender relatively high in one of the next two drafts.
     
  17. Anguyen92 Registered User

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    Ok, as a fan that don't understand anything about these numbers, tell me why I should be concerned about it? The Atlantic may have a point, but if I can't understand it, I'm not going to be as invested with what they say about the Kings' stats. Sometimes, regarding when people talk analytics, it's ok to dumb things down for people to understand.
     
  18. Kingspiracy Registered User

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    I dont get the Macdermid hate.
     
  19. YP44 Registered User

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    I would be more open to dealing Quick than Brown
     
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  20. Chazz Reinhold Registered User

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    I do like looking to expected goals as one reference point of analysis when you’re comparing teams relatively, but they’re certainly not the end-all, be-all of hockey analysis. That’s especially true when the models vary widely depending on which source you’re looking at.

    It’s been documented elsewhere that some of the models based on the public shot location data are not very good because the data are not very accurate. (As far as I know, Dom is using publicly available data.) From everything I’ve read and heard, the proprietary team models are much more accurate.

    I actually listened to an interesting podcast along these lines the other day that gives good perspective on data v. eye test, especially when it comes to teams as they play systematically: Ep.388: Making Necessary Adjustments
     
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  21. YP44 Registered User

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    for me it's not that i hare MacD but prefer Clague
     
  22. kingsholygrail Nani! Sponsor

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    If someone's willing to overpay for Quick, I'm all over it. It would just be practical, but no one is going to overpay for him so it won't be an issue. He's going to retire a King I'm fairly confident.
     
  23. Ziggy Stardust Master Debater Sponsor

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    With Malkin placed on IR, I expect Hextall to replace his production by placing a claim for Michael Amadio.
     
  24. Master Yoda LA Legends

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    He's not under contract next year so he won't meet the exposure standard. I don't think goalies have a games played requirement though.
     
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  25. johnjm22 16,005

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    I mean the stat I gave is pretty simple. 5v5 goals divided by games played.

    As far as the expected goals model Dom is using, I'm not an expert on it, but it's based on likely scoring relative to the number of quality chances/shots the team is producing.

    So in the NHL if a goal is scored on average once per 10 high danger chances, then you could deduce from the number of high danger chances what a teams expected goals scoring rate is going to be.

    Conversely you could estimate expected goals a team is going to give up using this metric.

    The difference between the two numbers, gives you insight into how a good a team is.
     
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