Speculation: 2020-2021 Sharks Roster Discussion Part 6
- Thread starter The Nemesis
- Start date
- Status
He's not performing so well that I'm worried about him not being in the lineup. He's not average defensively and doesn't provide a spark unless he is scoring and he's got 1 goal in 7 games and that's it.
Nieto-Marleau-Noesen as a 4th line is a good idea. If Noesen plays the body from the get-go, he's a good insert into the lineup. I'm also looking forward to seeing Chmelevski play. Leonard is a justifiable scratch at this stage.
hohosaregood
Banned
- Sep 1, 2011
- 32,456
- 12,709
Leonard will be back but a game in the press box was deserved unfortunately.
Yeah, he'll be back in. He's got too many tools not to be. Just an effort concern and being a bit lost. Watching sometimes resets those things.
PacificOceanPotion
Registered User
- Jun 19, 2009
- 6,068
- 4,797
Honestly, I think taking a seat up in the press box should be viewed at as a blessing and not some punishment. When you're sitting up there, you get to study the game and see it from a different angle than when you're down on the ice in the action and I think it will benefit Leonard greatly to gain that fresh perspective from a birds eye view.
Absolutely. He'll be back, but he deserved to sit a game after Tuesday's effort.
Excited for Chmelevski and interested to see how they use him. I'd imagine Gregor continues to get PP2 time but it'd be nice if they mix Sasha in there.
Gecklund
Registered User
So is the plan:
Labanc-Couture-Donato
Kane-Hertl-Meier
Gregor-Gambrell-Nieto
Noesen-Chmelevski-Marleau
Looks like it
Labanc-Couture-Donato
Kane-Hertl-Meier
Gregor-Gambrell-Nieto
Noesen-Chmelevski-Marleau
Looks like it
Reggae Shark
Registered User
- Sep 30, 2018
- 414
- 512
Vlasic and Jones could possibly benefit from such a blessing as well.
don't forget meier
Meier’s problems are 100% effort. He seems like a diva.
Sharks dont even have any decent players with expiring contracts to flip at the deadline. Think anyone wants the Long Beach Native hahh? Maybe Donato but hes a RFA we like.
Looking on cap friendly right now and I cant find a team even close to f'd with their contracts like the Sharks are. WTF DW.
Looking on cap friendly right now and I cant find a team even close to f'd with their contracts like the Sharks are. WTF DW.
Last edited:
Sharksrule04
Registered User
I’m starting to think this as well. He’s dominant when he wants to be, but he just seems to not give full effort some games. He has the tools to be a point per game 30+ goal scorer, but I wonder if he ever will be. He doesn’t have the same attitude as the other players from that epic draft.
themelkman
Always Delivers
Trade Donato I rage. One of the only good forwards every game. They should atleast ask about moving Kane
Dicdonya
Registered User
- Jul 21, 2011
- 4,449
- 2,594
Bored at work with nothing to do so decided to dive into some stats.
Its clear at this point Vlasic and Karlsson are killing this team defensively.
Ferraro needs to be put back with Burns immediately and then given the most ES ice time by a mile. They were above water in every way, had not been on the ice for a 5v5 GA yet, and were doing really well in HDCF% which is IMO important because Jones and Dubnyk are both not good enough to be bombarded by HD shots. By comparison, both Ferraro and Burns, especially Burns, are getting destroyed at ES since they switched Vlasic and Ferraro. Vlasic/Burns have doubled the rate of HDCA in less time together than Burns and Ferraro played. It is clear as day Vlasic is the reason for that from a statistical point of view, as Vlasic is terrible with everyone.
Somewhat surprisingly Simek and Knyzhov are actually killing it together, only area they are not doing amazing is GF% which is still a totally acceptable 50%, but their XGF is 60% so they are getting a bit unlucky there. The other area is HDCF% which is also 50%, but although they are not generating a ton, they are not giving up a ton either which is good for a third pair IMO. Possession wise however they are doing great sitting at or near 60% in all categories. Knyzhov has been a bit invisible to me, but it seems like its been the good kind of invisible, just quietly doing his job well when with Simek. Ill be watching him more closely moving forward.
The elephant in the room though is Karlsson. I expected to see his defensive possession metrics down in the dumps, but not only is he the worst defensively, but also the worst offensively. Yes even Vlasic is creating more positive possession, and has higher XGF/60 than Erik f***ing Karlsson.
Just a couple quick numbers to illustrate Karlsson's shit metrics so far this year. Ill compare him and Burns. Both offensive Dmen, both played about the same minutes, against what I assume is relatively similar competition, and both played with the same D partners for close to the same amount of time. In other words, no legit reason their numbers should be wildly different other than because of their own play this year.
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
Also Burns has lower PDO(.969) than Karlsson (.989) which generally indicates that Burns in getting decently below expected results, while Karlsson is pretty close to a 1.000 PDO which means generally speaking there is not much expected improvement for Karlsson. The difference is night and day. Only the HDCF is pretty similar, but everything else is pretty significantly in Burns favor and this holds true in the stats I did not list as well.
Vlasic is just about as bad as Karlsson in all those stats, but better in every one of them except HDCF where Karlsson barely edges him out. Just to put into perspective how absolutely shit Karlsson's metrics are.
Obviously this is a big issue, not simply because those two are doing horrible, and dragging their new partners down into the drain with them, but because A) Putting Ferraro back with Burns mean Karlsson and Vlasic have to play together, and that was an unmitigated disaster. B) Chances are slim to none that either of them will get demoted to third line ice time and duties. C) Neither of them are likely to be traded, nor likely to be desired around the league right now, which means hoping we can get them a better partner in a trade is unlikely.
So I am at a complete loss at how to theoretically fix this problem. I think the only super slim possibility is that Vlasic moves to the third pairing, and we hope that Simek can stay afloat with Karlsson, and that Vlasic with 3rd pairing duties can not tank Knyzhov. However given their status, contract, and expectations, I highly doubt that ever happens. The only other pie in the sky hope would be that Vlasic/Karlsson are the 3rd pair, with Karlsson being a PP specialist and Vlasic a PK specialist, and then roll Simek/Knyzhov out as a quasi shutdown 2nd pair and hope they can do it.
Anyways, TLDR, Vlasic and Karlsson are dogshit this year, while our other defenseman are actually doing quite well away from these two, and that creates a massive issue given their ice time, deployment and contract situations. Nothing short a complete 180 for at least one of them gives me any hope that our season will get any better.
Its clear at this point Vlasic and Karlsson are killing this team defensively.
Ferraro needs to be put back with Burns immediately and then given the most ES ice time by a mile. They were above water in every way, had not been on the ice for a 5v5 GA yet, and were doing really well in HDCF% which is IMO important because Jones and Dubnyk are both not good enough to be bombarded by HD shots. By comparison, both Ferraro and Burns, especially Burns, are getting destroyed at ES since they switched Vlasic and Ferraro. Vlasic/Burns have doubled the rate of HDCA in less time together than Burns and Ferraro played. It is clear as day Vlasic is the reason for that from a statistical point of view, as Vlasic is terrible with everyone.
Somewhat surprisingly Simek and Knyzhov are actually killing it together, only area they are not doing amazing is GF% which is still a totally acceptable 50%, but their XGF is 60% so they are getting a bit unlucky there. The other area is HDCF% which is also 50%, but although they are not generating a ton, they are not giving up a ton either which is good for a third pair IMO. Possession wise however they are doing great sitting at or near 60% in all categories. Knyzhov has been a bit invisible to me, but it seems like its been the good kind of invisible, just quietly doing his job well when with Simek. Ill be watching him more closely moving forward.
The elephant in the room though is Karlsson. I expected to see his defensive possession metrics down in the dumps, but not only is he the worst defensively, but also the worst offensively. Yes even Vlasic is creating more positive possession, and has higher XGF/60 than Erik f***ing Karlsson.
Just a couple quick numbers to illustrate Karlsson's shit metrics so far this year. Ill compare him and Burns. Both offensive Dmen, both played about the same minutes, against what I assume is relatively similar competition, and both played with the same D partners for close to the same amount of time. In other words, no legit reason their numbers should be wildly different other than because of their own play this year.
| Per 60 5v5 | CF | CA | CF% | SF | SA | SF% | HDCF | HDCA | HDCF% | XGF | XGA | XGF% |
| Burns | 57.6 | 61.2 | 48.4 | 31.8 | 29.8 | 51.6 | 8.87 | 12.9 | 40.7 | 2.04 | 2.71 | 43.0 |
| Karlsson | 47.6 | 70.5 | 40.2 | 25.1 | 40.2 | 38.4 | 8.65 | 16.8 | 33.9 | 1.63 | 3.26 | 33.3 |
Also Burns has lower PDO(.969) than Karlsson (.989) which generally indicates that Burns in getting decently below expected results, while Karlsson is pretty close to a 1.000 PDO which means generally speaking there is not much expected improvement for Karlsson. The difference is night and day. Only the HDCF is pretty similar, but everything else is pretty significantly in Burns favor and this holds true in the stats I did not list as well.
Vlasic is just about as bad as Karlsson in all those stats, but better in every one of them except HDCF where Karlsson barely edges him out. Just to put into perspective how absolutely shit Karlsson's metrics are.
Obviously this is a big issue, not simply because those two are doing horrible, and dragging their new partners down into the drain with them, but because A) Putting Ferraro back with Burns mean Karlsson and Vlasic have to play together, and that was an unmitigated disaster. B) Chances are slim to none that either of them will get demoted to third line ice time and duties. C) Neither of them are likely to be traded, nor likely to be desired around the league right now, which means hoping we can get them a better partner in a trade is unlikely.
So I am at a complete loss at how to theoretically fix this problem. I think the only super slim possibility is that Vlasic moves to the third pairing, and we hope that Simek can stay afloat with Karlsson, and that Vlasic with 3rd pairing duties can not tank Knyzhov. However given their status, contract, and expectations, I highly doubt that ever happens. The only other pie in the sky hope would be that Vlasic/Karlsson are the 3rd pair, with Karlsson being a PP specialist and Vlasic a PK specialist, and then roll Simek/Knyzhov out as a quasi shutdown 2nd pair and hope they can do it.
Anyways, TLDR, Vlasic and Karlsson are dogshit this year, while our other defenseman are actually doing quite well away from these two, and that creates a massive issue given their ice time, deployment and contract situations. Nothing short a complete 180 for at least one of them gives me any hope that our season will get any better.
OffSydes
#tank2014/5
- Aug 14, 2011
- 3,395
- 2,091
With the season 14% done the Sharks are sitting in last place in the division.
And people are shocked at this for some strange and odd reason lol
Is this just these first games? Then the sample size is too small. EK65 was terrible the first couple games but has been noticeable better since. I would be curious about how he's trending as far as these numbers. By all means shit on him for sucking at the beginning but he's been noticeably better since having Vlasic removed from his back.
As far as the fix, I still maintain they should put Simek with EK65 and limit Vlasic's minutes on the 3rd pair. Simek has looked great the last few games as has Knyzhov. Enough so I'm not sure which would be the better option to put with EK65. I'm kinda leaning Knyzhov but you guys that work the stats might have a better idea which is actually better.
Makoshark
Registered User
That rebuild can't come soon enough. Wonder which player with a NTC is going to be the first to want to jump ship.
There's only 2 so you got a 50/50 shot betting which one. My money's on Vlasic. Old and probably wants a shot at a cup. EK65 is young enough to see a turn around in his own play as well as with the roster construction. Nice thing about this season is there is a shorter than normal offseason so whatever changes they make will feel rapid.
Dicdonya
Registered User
- Jul 21, 2011
- 4,449
- 2,594
My phone keeps killing my response by refreshing the page, so I’ll try to get back to you later. In short though for now, I do agree with you for the most part but I’ll elaborate later when I wake up and get to a computer.
themelkman
Always Delivers
Couture or Kane should be movable. Burns to seattle is possible but hes been the best of the bunch
Think Kane is worth a 1st now? Obviously his play is but the NHL seems to really dislike him
Can't imagine that any of his three teams would fork over a 1st considering the leverage involved.
- Status
Ad
Upcoming events
-
-
-
-
Game 4 Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers - Boston leads series 3-0Wagers: 1Staked: $1,857.00Event closes- Updated:
-
