So like i said you are hoping for the absolute best of every top player on this team. And every aspect of the team to be at there very best.
The only 1 of those 4 that can be counted on for sure hitting 60 points is couture and that is just because he has done it the most. 4 of 11 years in the nhl. Meier done it once and if he hits his potential should be able to hit it again. Kane has never hit it. Hertl has done it once in his 7 seasons. Not really that good success rate of reaching this area that needs to be hit.
So as i said your way of being in the playoffs needs for 2 players to become something they never been before. And every one else to come close to having career years. And we have not even touched on the bottom 6 that is hoping for 6 players to take 2 steps forward in there progress.
No, not what I wrote
Edit: another add to the 4 60 point players on the same team prediction. Only 1 team in the entire nhl actually hit that mark. 2 other teams would of for sure if not for the season ending early and a 4th that had a chance. No other team was even remotely close to reaching this goal.
Dude... Jeez man that's not what I said. Please re-read it. I specifically said
I don't expect my best case scenario and I detailed what my best case was.
"And no my best case scenarios do not have them barely making the playoffs. If this roster meets what I would consider a best case scenario they finish top 4 in the conference and are battling Vegas for the division all season. I don't think they meet all the best case scenarios so I'm saying they finish somewhere between 4th and 8th in the conference unless of course injuries hit like last year which I think is completely unlikely."
As far as who can hit what points... That was from my best case scenario which hopefully has now been established that I don't think they hit.
The bottom 6 is not hoping for 6 players to take 2 steps... Maybe 1 player needs to take 1 step if even that. Have you looked at the roster? Nieto, Patty, Sorenson, Gamby, Noesen (that's 5 of 6), then all the prospects - Gregor, Blich, Leonard, Handy, Kellman, Chemleski, etc, etc. Then consider that DW is trying to sign Connor Sheary probably to compete with Labanc and Donato in the top 6. 3rd man out there plays in the bottom 6. So there is more than enough ingredients to make a competitive 3rd and 4th line.
Here I'll make it easier for you. Here is my realistic expectations based on an 82 game schedule:
Donato pots 20 goals (he put up 14 last season mostly playing limited minutes in the bottom 6), Labanc gets 45 points, goalies are league average (same), pk is top 10 (same), pp top 15, burns and ek65 put up 100 points between them. Hertl, Couture, Kane, Meier all average out at about 50 points each. It's the average of all 4. All 4 don't have to hit 50. I think at least 2 are going to put up 60+ to make up for a short fall in one or 2 of the other players production. Basically approximately 100 goals and 100 assists from that 4 some. EK65, Hertl and Couture play 90% of the games. Considering how poorly all these players (other burns) played in the first couple months under PDB they still were on pace to beat these predictions last season and that team had major injuries and major motivation and/or chemistry problem. All these expectations are completely reasonable for what these players have shown previously that they are capable of. IMO, this would put them in the lower half of the playoff bracket in the pacific. If they realign for the season and move Dallas and the Avs into the Pacific, I don't think the prediction changes because Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary would be leaving. Sharks are still looking at playing LA, the ducks and AZ multiple times. Dallas to me has the look of of a playoff over achiever. I don't think they show up as an elite team next season with old ass Pavs in their top 6. They basically finished last season in the 4th seed.
A few notes about the top 4 forwards:
- Last 3 seasons Kane put up 54, 56 and then scored at a 60 point pace last season when the team was trash. That's trending up.
- Meier scored 66 2 seasons ago and scored at a 57 point pace last season after basically being a no show for the first 2 months of the season. He is very likely on the cusp of consistently being the teams leading scorer.
- Hertl after scoring 74 points 2 seasons ago was on a 61 point pace last season while carrying his wingers until Meier woke up. Hertl is the wild card. If he's healthy and feeling confident, he's probably the best forward on the team a legit #1 center. 50 points is an absolute minimum prediction if he can stay healthy. Long off season rehabbing, shortened season, I like his chances.
- Couture is a very good bet for 60 let alone 50 unless he's been eating Poutine and getting punched in the mouth everyday since the shut down.
So yeah these 4 players are easy bets for 50 points (avg) and frankly 60 (avg) isn't all that unreasonable as a possibility when you consider they have 2 of the best offensive defensemen helping them from the back end.
One thing to add. I still think DW gets in on a trade for an established player like one of the guys TB has to move. There are a few teams that have to move guys still and this is where I expect DW to do something to bolster the teams talent level.
They didn't finish near the bottom with everyone healthy, great coaching and a great system. There were plainly obvious reasons. The core you're talking about being older... who? Burns? He's the only important player who's old and frankly I bet he still puts up 50 points next season if healthy. Everyone else who matters it 31 or less. Vlasic kinda matters but he can put on the 3rd pair if he's still sucking. I don't think he's the difference between this team missing or making the playoffs anymore. Another year older is likely beneficial to guys like Meier and Labanc and about 10 prospects who are going to be fighting for ice time. Yeah there are question marks as far as Labanc and Donato being top 6 players but they aren't without competition or even guys to fill in when they struggle. DW is also clearly trying to sign at least 1 more NHL vet forward. Unless BB is a complete train wreck and/or they get hit with a ton of injures, this roster is at a minimum fighting for a playoff spot all season. They still have 2 D-men capable of 50+ point seasons and 4 forwards who can score 30 goals.
