Prospect Info: 2020-2021 Prospect Thread (CHL, NCAA, Europe) Part II

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He’s only “fine” in that position if MacKinnon is absolutely dominating and Kadri is at least taking a regular shift. If one or more of those things ceases to happen, he gets exposed. Defensively he can do the job IN THE REGULAR SEASON. Offensively though, you can’t have a guy on the third line who can’t crack 30 points. That’s not good enough for a team going for it.

And I highlighted “regular season” because now, two years in a row, he’s gotten completely killed in the postseason once a big, physical team showed up.
Except Saint Louis.
 

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He’s only “fine” in that position if MacKinnon is absolutely dominating and Kadri is at least taking a regular shift. If one or more of those things ceases to happen, he gets exposed. Defensively he can do the job IN THE REGULAR SEASON. Offensively though, you can’t have a guy on the third line who can’t crack 30 points. That’s not good enough for a team going for it.

And I highlighted “regular season” because now, two years in a row, he’s gotten completely killed in the postseason once a big, physical team showed up. Go look at the goals against in this series. I assure you a bunch of them were scored while he was on the ice. I don’t mean to slag him but in the playoffs his obvious weaknesses get exploited big time.

No. The Avs have now lost three years in a row to a team that arguably was not as good as them on paper, but had a deeper center corps. All three of those teams had that advantage. The opposition knows now—shut down MacKinnon and you shut down the Avs. Jost has to be a credible scoring threat to be a legit 3rd line center. And he isn’t.

Add to this, the West this year was by far the weakest division down the middle of the ice. Nobody had good center depth.
 
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Vaslof

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He’s only “fine” in that position if MacKinnon is absolutely dominating and Kadri is at least taking a regular shift. If one or more of those things ceases to happen, he gets exposed. Defensively he can do the job IN THE REGULAR SEASON. Offensively though, you can’t have a guy on the third line who can’t crack 30 points. That’s not good enough for a team going for it.

And I highlighted “regular season” because now, two years in a row, he’s gotten completely killed in the postseason once a big, physical team showed up. Go look at the goals against in this series. I assure you a bunch of them were scored while he was on the ice. I don’t mean to slag him but in the playoffs his obvious weaknesses get exploited big time.

No. The Avs have now lost three years in a row to a team that arguably was not as good as them on paper, but had a deeper center corps. All three of those teams had that advantage. The opposition knows now—shut down MacKinnon and you shut down the Avs. Jost has to be a credible scoring threat to be a legit 3rd line center. And he isn’t.

You could be right about that. I would certainly feel that Newhook as 3C would have more scoring potential than Jost. The return we get for Kadri would definitely have to be 2C caliber if we want to have Newhook as our 3C. I think we do have pieces to add to Kadri to get it done. Only thing is who we could get.
 

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You could be right about that. I would certainly feel that Newhook as 3C would have more scoring potential than Jost. The return we get for Kadri would definitely have to be 2C caliber if we want to have Newhook as our 3C. I think we do have pieces to add to Kadri to get it done. Only thing is who we could get.

That’s why I like the idea of going for someone like Reinhart or Hertl. Both guys could easily play a 2C role but could also shift to the wing and not miss a beat. The Avs need to find a guy like that to offer them more roster flexibility.
 

Foppa2118

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The metric for what makes a good pick is whether you got a good PLAYER when one was available. Jost vs McAvoy and Chychrun is no contest as far as impact goes. If the whole rest of the first round sucked that would be one thing, but there were better skaters available where he was picked, that's just a fact. And it's the scouts job to make sure they get the best player available.

Just because there were a couple defenseman that turned out better doesn't mean he was this terrible pick we've always made him out to be at 10.

There's often a couple defenseman that turn out better. It's ridiculous to be up in arms about taking a player at 10, instead of 12 or 13 or something. A player gets picked a few spots too early ALL THE TIME.

The simple truth is that was a bad draft, only a couple forwards taken after Jost have outproduced him, neither were taken in the first round, and there were a few defenseman that would have been better picks in the first round.

Big deal. Two teams ahead of the Avs picked complete busts. Two teams directly after the Avs picked complete busts instead of the defenseman we're upset the Avs didn't pick, and one of them was the best scouting team in the NHL in Ottawa.

Carolina picked Jake Bean instead of McAvoy and Chychrun. Minnesota picked Luke Kunin instead of Chychrun. 17 teams after that picked someone much worse than Jordan Kyrou. Basically every team in the NHL except Chicago picked someone worse than DeBrincat as there were 32 worse picks taken before him. Every team in the NHL picked someone worse than Jesper Bratt for five rounds.

Jost has played the best hockey of his career this year, he was one of the Avs best and most productive players in the playoffs, but we still treat him like a whipping boy. We just can't stop being negative about him.
 

McMetal

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Just because there were a couple defenseman that turned out better doesn't mean he was this terrible pick we've always made him out to be at 10.

There's often a couple defenseman that turn out better. It's ridiculous to be up in arms about taking a player at 10, instead of 12 or 13 or something. A player gets picked a few spots too early ALL THE TIME.

The simple truth is that was a bad draft, only a couple forwards taken after Jost have outproduced him, neither were taken in the first round, and there were a few defenseman that would have been better picks in the first round.

Big deal. Two teams ahead of the Avs picked complete busts. Two teams directly after the Avs picked complete busts instead of the defenseman we're upset the Avs didn't pick, and one of them was the best scouting team in the NHL in Ottawa.

Carolina picked Jake Bean instead of McAvoy and Chychrun. Minnesota picked Luke Kunin instead of Chychrun. 17 teams after that picked someone much worse than Jordan Kyrou. Basically every team in the NHL except Chicago picked someone worse than DeBrincat as there were 32 worse picks taken before him. Every team in the NHL picked someone worse than Jesper Bratt for five rounds.

Jost has played the best hockey of his career this year, he was one of the Avs best and most productive players in the playoffs, but we still treat him like a whipping boy. We just can't stop being negative about him.
Just because it was a bad draft doesn't excuse the scouts for not finding the diamonds in the rough. That's literally their job to separate the wheat from the chaff. Yeah, Ottawa's legendary scouting team picked Logan Brown, but even good scouting teams make bad picks sometimes. And just because Brown was a WORSE pick than Jost doesn't mean Jost was a good pick.

The Avs scouting staff has historically been really good with top 10 picks. When we apply the same rules to 2015 that I'm applying to 2016, even with all the benefits of hindsight, Rantanen is still a good pick. It's hard to make a slam dunk argument for anybody else in the first round besides him. *Maybe* Aho, but a lot of teams passed on him, and since I'm already giving the Avs the benefit of the doubt on Debrincat it seems fair to give them the same latitude there. Same with Makar. 2017 turned out to be a better draft than many thought, with lots of decent to good NHL players picked in the first and second rounds, but again, hard to make an argument for anybody behind Makar they should have taken a swing at instead. MacKinnon in 2013 was obviously great judgment, and while it's still really early for 2019 to be drawing conclusions on that class, Byram certainly is living up to expectations so far.

So it isn't all bad, the only real miss in the top 10 was Jost. The problems in later rounds may or may not be continuing, but the top 10 is something that the Avs have been good at. But like Ottawa and Logan Brown, sometimes even teams with good records draw a dud. As Hench said earlier, scouting is really hard and nobody gets it right all the time. In general though, the Avs have done quite well in that range.

As for being negative about Jost, I just think we have to be realistic about it. True, the pick wasn't ALL bad, but it wasn't all it could have been, either. I think it's fair to criticize the pick as a whiff while acknowledging that the Avs have done a good job in the same range in other drafts.

It's not like I'm saying it was the worst they could have done, it just wasn't the best either. I don't see why that's a controversial statement.
 

PowerMac

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I don't think Jost is done improving yet. A lot of people said he wasn't even a nhl player just a few months ago, they'll probably be wrong again.
 
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Foppa2118

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Just because it was a bad draft doesn't excuse the scouts for not finding the diamonds in the rough. That's literally their job to separate the wheat from the chaff. Yeah, Ottawa's legendary scouting team picked Logan Brown, but even good scouting teams make bad picks sometimes. And just because Brown was a WORSE pick than Jost doesn't mean Jost was a good pick.

The Avs scouting staff has historically been really good with top 10 picks. When we apply the same rules to 2015 that I'm applying to 2016, even with all the benefits of hindsight, Rantanen is still a good pick. It's hard to make a slam dunk argument for anybody else in the first round besides him. *Maybe* Aho, but a lot of teams passed on him, and since I'm already giving the Avs the benefit of the doubt on Debrincat it seems fair to give them the same latitude there. Same with Makar. 2017 turned out to be a better draft than many thought, with lots of decent to good NHL players picked in the first and second rounds, but again, hard to make an argument for anybody behind Makar they should have taken a swing at instead. MacKinnon in 2013 was obviously great judgment, and while it's still really early for 2019 to be drawing conclusions on that class, Byram certainly is living up to expectations so far.

So it isn't all bad, the only real miss in the top 10 was Jost. The problems in later rounds may or may not be continuing, but the top 10 is something that the Avs have been good at. But like Ottawa and Logan Brown, sometimes even teams with good records draw a dud. As Hench said earlier, scouting is really hard and nobody gets it right all the time. In general though, the Avs have done quite well in that range.

As for being negative about Jost, I just think we have to be realistic about it. True, the pick wasn't ALL bad, but it wasn't all it could have been, either. I think it's fair to criticize the pick as a whiff while acknowledging that the Avs have done a good job in the same range in other drafts.

It's not like I'm saying it was the worst they could have done, it just wasn't the best either. I don't see why that's a controversial statement.

The bolded is where I think our disconnect on this issue is. I just don't think the fact they couldn't find a diamond in the rough warrants the level of criticism the Jost pick gets.

Even the best drafting teams don't do this every year. As evidenced by the best drafting team taking Logan Brown.

If you find a diamond in the rough that usually means you made a really, really, great pick. If you don't find that diamond in the rough, and only a few players would have been better picks than the one you made, it doesn't mean it was a terrible pick. It just means it wasn't a really, really, great pick.
 

McMetal

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The bolded is where I think our disconnect on this issue is. I just don't think the fact they couldn't find a diamond in the rough warrants the level of criticism the Jost pick gets.

Even the best drafting teams don't do this every year. As evidenced by the best drafting team taking Logan Brown.

If you find a diamond in the rough that usually means you made a really, really, great pick. If you don't find that diamond in the rough, and only a few players would have been better picks than the one you made, it doesn't mean it was a terrible pick. It just means it wasn't a really, really, great pick.
I don't think it was a terrible pick... A terrible pick would have been Logan Brown or German Rubtsov. Terrible would have been the worst case scenario, this one was merely bad. I mean, we did get a useful NHL player out of it, it could have been worse. I think you're exaggerating my position here into me hating Jost or something. I think he performed well this season and showed some real growth.

But the fact remains that it wasn't good, either. Imagine this team with McAvoy and Makar on it. You don't even have to subtract Makar, because McAvoy would have been in college for the nightmare season and we still would have ended up in the same boat in 2017. You might not have Toews, but you would also have two 2nd round picks instead that could be used as trade capital to fix the C depth this summer. It could have been a lot better.
 
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Foppa2118

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I don't think it was a terrible pick... A terrible pick would have been Logan Brown or German Rubtsov. Terrible would have been the worst case scenario, this one was merely bad. I mean, we did get a useful NHL player out of it, it could have been worse. I think you're exaggerating my position here into me hating Jost or something. I think he performed well this season and showed some real growth.

But the fact remains that it wasn't good, either. Imagine this team with McAvoy and Makar on it. You don't even have to subtract Makar, because McAvoy would have been in college for the nightmare season and we still would have ended up in the same boat in 2017. You might not have Toews, but you would also have two 2nd round picks instead that could be used as trade capital to fix the C depth this summer. It could have been a lot better.

We're getting into semantics a bit here but I don't think there's much difference between continuing to criticize Jost by saying he was a bad pick at 10, five years after he was drafted, and saying it was a terrible pick.

Every team has plenty of 1st round picks where there were just as many "better picks" taken after them as the Jost pick. But we're always fixated on criticizing Jost for some reason.

This board has genuinely complained way more about the Jost pick at #10 than they ever did the Duncan Siemens pick at #11.

Duncan was essentially a bust that never turned into an NHLer and there were A LOT more "better picks" taken after him, but we were nowhere even close to as negative about him and his pick as we have been Jost.
 

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Duncan was essentially a bust that never turned into an NHLer and there were A LOT more "better picks" taken after him, but we were nowhere even close to as negative about him and his pick as we have been Jost.

There’s a reason for that, fair or not. Dunk was an extra pick, the Avs had already picked their future captain 2nd overall prior to that. If Jost had gone bust that would’ve been 2014 all over again.

It wasn’t a bad pick, but it wasn’t a good one either.
 

Foppa2118

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There’s a reason for that, fair or not. Dunk was an extra pick, the Avs had already picked their future captain 2nd overall prior to that. If Jost had gone bust that would’ve been 2014 all over again.

It wasn’t a bad pick, but it wasn’t a good one either.

But if we're going off the reasons given for why Jost wasn't a good pick, then this doesn't matter.
 

McMetal

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We're getting into semantics a bit here but I don't think there's much difference between continuing to criticize Jost by saying he was a bad pick at 10, five years after he was drafted, and saying it was a terrible pick.

Every team has plenty of 1st round picks where there were just as many "better picks" taken after them as the Jost pick. But we're always fixated on criticizing Jost for some reason.

This board has genuinely complained way more about the Jost pick at #10 than they ever did the Duncan Siemens pick at #11.

Duncan was essentially a bust that never turned into an NHLer and there were A LOT more "better picks" taken after him, but we were nowhere even close to as negative about him and his pick as we have been Jost.
I recall that pick getting plenty of criticism over the years. Yeah, Siemens was a terrible pick, no doubt about it. I think the poor quality of our prospect pool at the time may have inflated our perception of his potential, perhaps, but in the end it was a complete waste of a good pick when we badly needed talent, especially on D.

I think this is less about Jost himself, ultimately, than it is about the scouts that picked him. Jost isn't responsible for where he was picked, he worked as hard as he could and it's not his fault he didn't live up to the expectations attached to a top 10 pick. The fault for it lies solely with Hepple and Sakic for signing off on it. It's not that we're being hard on Jost, nobody questions his work ethic. This was a mistake by the scouting team, pure and simple.
 

Foppa2118

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I recall that pick getting plenty of criticism over the years. Yeah, Siemens was a terrible pick, no doubt about it. I think the poor quality of our prospect pool at the time may have inflated our perception of his potential, perhaps, but in the end it was a complete waste of a good pick when we badly needed talent, especially on D.

I think this is less about Jost himself, ultimately, than it is about the scouts that picked him. Jost isn't responsible for where he was picked, he worked as hard as he could and it's not his fault he didn't live up to the expectations attached to a top 10 pick. The fault for it lies solely with Hepple and Sakic for signing off on it. It's not that we're being hard on Jost, nobody questions his work ethic. This was a mistake by the scouting team, pure and simple.

I appreciate your level headed take in this post, but while Siemens got his share of criticism, it was like a 1/10 of the criticism that Jost has had. It's been relentless and it's still going despite him playing his best hockey.

At the end everyone was basically cheering for Siemens when he finally got a few games in the NHL and got that goal.

Jost has 262 games and 89 points and there's still multiple negative posts about him every day.
 
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MarkT

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The thing with Jost is, years ago I remember watching a video of all his goals in college, and on almost every one my main thought was that an NHL defenseman wouldn't have allowed him to do the thing that led to the goal. This was after his debut and I watched it because I was wondering why he was so ineffective. once I watched it I wasn't surprised. What surprised me is why the Avs scouts couldn't see what I did. A player with some skill, but who would need to completely overhaul his game to be effective. He still hasn't managed to do that when it comes to offense, and if he doesn't he shouldn't be relied on for anything but 4C duties, which I'm personally fine with.

I appreciate your level headed take in this post, but while Siemens got his share of criticism, it was like a 1/10 of the criticism that Jost has had. It's been relentless and it's still going despite him playing his best hockey.

At the end everyone was basically cheering for Siemens when he finally got a few games in the NHL and got that goal.

Jost has 262 games and 89 points and there's still multiple negative posts about him every day.

The difference is Jost has been gifted chance after chance he didn't earn to play in the top 6 or on the top powerplay. Had Siemens been put in the top four and left there despite obviously struggling, he'd have got as much criticism as Jost, if not more.

The negative posts about Jost I think is because most of us can see a 4th line player being misused, and the anger probably comes because if he was slotted properly, Sakic and co might have done something to fill that slot with a player who belongs in the role Jost has been filling.
 
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McMetal

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To get the prospect thread back on topic, let's talk a little bit about some of the good news stories for some prospects whose stock has risen this past year.

Bowen Byram - After a great performance as captain of Team Canada at the WJC, he quickly made his pro debut with the Avs, and immediately showed off his rock-solid defensive prowess and coolness under pressure, as well as flashing some offensive tools as he gained confidence. Despite the injury-shortened season, he proved that he belongs in the NHL.

Conor Timmins - Established himself as an NHL regular this year, playing all 10 postseason games. And while he's still looking for his first goal, he's playing better at both ends of the ice and proving that he belongs at least as a bottom pair D for now. Since he only has 45 NHL games played, he's still going to count as a "prospect" for this summer's polls.

Alex Newhook - After scoring 3G3A at the WJC for Team Canada, he went back to college after missing some time with injury. He ended his college career after 16 points in 12 games and turned pro, immediately contributing to the Eagles squad and quickly earning a 4th line spot with the big club, where he scored his first NHL goal and added 4 assists to start his NHL career.

Martin Kaut - Despite not getting much of a look at the NHL level, Kaut was dynamite for the Eagles, with 16 points in 20 games he found his scoring touch at that level, and now all that's left is for him to get a crack at the NHL squad.

Jean-Luc Foudy - Playing most of the year against men in the AHL, Foudy acquitted himself well in mostly third line usage, scoring 14 points in 34 games and showing that he's already able to withstand the rigors of the pro game. Next year he goes back to the OHL, where his experience and age should provide him with lots of top six minutes.

Justin Barron - After scoring nearly a point per game in the Q as a defenseman, he made his pro debut, scoring 1G3A in 7 games and proving he can adjust quickly to the pro game.

Drew Helleson - After his breakout performance at the WJC with team USA, where he was solid as a rock, he returned to Boston College, doubling his point total from his freshman year and earning key minutes on the blueline, showing off his IQ and refining his all around game.

Sampo Ranta - After a dominant junior season in the NCAA where he scored 19 goals and 31 points in 31 games, he made his pro debut, continuing to progress in the AHL and earning himself a call-up to the big squad, where he got his first NHL cup of coffee.

Colby Ambrosio - Stepping into Newhook's 2C role while he was away with Team Canada, he earned top six minutes on a good BC team, mostly on the wing once Newhook returned. He ended his freshman season with 15 points in 24 games, and is looking to step into a larger role on the team now that Newhook and Boldy have moved on.

Alex Beaucage - Scoring 17 goals in just 22 regular season games in the shortened QMJHL season, Beaucage followed it up with 25 points in 16 playoff games as the Tigres claimed the QMJHL championship, capping it off with the overtime winner to clinch the President's cup for his team. Now signed to an ELC, he'll continue his career with the Eagles.

I know this place is bitter as hell right now about the loss to the Knights, but the state of the prospect pool should show that there's still hope for the org as these guys start to push their way into the NHL.
 

Chiarelli

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ignoring the top 3 hopefully we can get a few bottom 6 forwards and bottom 4 d-men out of the rest of these guys in the next few years.
 

MarkT

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To get the prospect thread back on topic, let's talk a little bit about some of the good news stories for some prospects whose stock has risen this past year.

Bowen Byram - After a great performance as captain of Team Canada at the WJC, he quickly made his pro debut with the Avs, and immediately showed off his rock-solid defensive prowess and coolness under pressure, as well as flashing some offensive tools as he gained confidence. Despite the injury-shortened season, he proved that he belongs in the NHL.

Conor Timmins - Established himself as an NHL regular this year, playing all 10 postseason games. And while he's still looking for his first goal, he's playing better at both ends of the ice and proving that he belongs at least as a bottom pair D for now. Since he only has 45 NHL games played, he's still going to count as a "prospect" for this summer's polls.

Alex Newhook - After scoring 3G3A at the WJC for Team Canada, he went back to college after missing some time with injury. He ended his college career after 16 points in 12 games and turned pro, immediately contributing to the Eagles squad and quickly earning a 4th line spot with the big club, where he scored his first NHL goal and added 4 assists to start his NHL career.

Martin Kaut - Despite not getting much of a look at the NHL level, Kaut was dynamite for the Eagles, with 16 points in 20 games he found his scoring touch at that level, and now all that's left is for him to get a crack at the NHL squad.

Jean-Luc Foudy - Playing most of the year against men in the AHL, Foudy acquitted himself well in mostly third line usage, scoring 14 points in 34 games and showing that he's already able to withstand the rigors of the pro game. Next year he goes back to the OHL, where his experience and age should provide him with lots of top six minutes.

Justin Barron - After scoring nearly a point per game in the Q as a defenseman, he made his pro debut, scoring 1G3A in 7 games and proving he can adjust quickly to the pro game.

Drew Helleson - After his breakout performance at the WJC with team USA, where he was solid as a rock, he returned to Boston College, doubling his point total from his freshman year and earning key minutes on the blueline, showing off his IQ and refining his all around game.

Sampo Ranta - After a dominant junior season in the NCAA where he scored 19 goals and 31 points in 31 games, he made his pro debut, continuing to progress in the AHL and earning himself a call-up to the big squad, where he got his first NHL cup of coffee.

Colby Ambrosio - Stepping into Newhook's 2C role while he was away with Team Canada, he earned top six minutes on a good BC team, mostly on the wing once Newhook returned. He ended his freshman season with 15 points in 24 games, and is looking to step into a larger role on the team now that Newhook and Boldy have moved on.

Alex Beaucage - Scoring 17 goals in just 22 regular season games in the shortened QMJHL season, Beaucage followed it up with 25 points in 16 playoff games as the Tigres claimed the QMJHL championship, capping it off with the overtime winner to clinch the President's cup for his team. Now signed to an ELC, he'll continue his career with the Eagles.

I know this place is bitter as hell right now about the loss to the Knights, but the state of the prospect pool should show that there's still hope for the org as these guys start to push their way into the NHL.

For you or anyone else: If we do part ways with guys like Compher, Donskoi, Kadri or Graves, and we let UFAs walk like PEB, Calvert and Nemeth, how many of the guys listed above are going to be in the game 1 lineup.

I'm assuming Byram, Timmins and Newhook. But Kaut? Ranta? Anyone else you expect to shock us and make the team?
 

McMetal

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For you or anyone else: If we do part ways with guys like Compher, Donskoi, Kadri or Graves, and we let UFAs walk like PEB, Calvert and Nemeth, how many of the guys listed above are going to be in the game 1 lineup.

I'm assuming Byram, Timmins and Newhook. But Kaut? Ranta? Anyone else you expect to shock us and make the team?
Since it's impossible to know for sure how the offseason and camp will go, I'll say what I think SHOULD happen.

Byram, Timmins, and Newhook should all be in the NHL, in order of likelihood. Byram's clearly ready to take the next step, Timmins took another step in the playoffs, and while Newhook can maybe learn more from the AHL I think the need for ELCs will force him onto the squad.

Kaut needs to be in the NHL. Sink or swim time for him, either he's bound for Europe or he's an NHL bottom sixer, but the only way to find out for sure is to play him. Since Bednar appears to be staying, I think this is unlikely. He doesn't seem to like Kaut too much, but if I was in charge I'd play him. Time to find out what you have in him.

Ranta probably should go back to the AHL. He only spent a dozen or so games down there, and clearly has plenty to refine before he gets another crack at the NHL. It's encouraging that he was able to play, but he isn't fully cooked yet, IMO.

As for Barron, he needs more AHL time too, and the NHL D corps is already stacked anyway, especially if you assume EJ is back for his usual 10 games before his annual season ending injury. MAYBE he earns a callup if he keeps playing well in the AHL, but it's probably best to slow cook defensemen if you can afford to.
 
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