Speculation: 2019 Trade Deadline

[Unfriendly Ghost]

it's promoting that sleazy site for some sucker on here to blindly give out their credit card info and pay for words.

If you're looking for a new opponent, you should go for Amazon. So many people buying ebooks, giving out their credit card information willy nilly just to buy e-words.

 

[RedWingzz]

You can look at my first post here:



Or, if you prefer a more qualified opinion, you can check out what analytics writer Dom Luszczyszyn has to say in his new article on The Athletic. This is like a double whammy, right @Dotter? If you don't want to click the link below, I will include a single sentence from the piece:

"Mats Zuccarello and Gustav Nyquist have played like first liners this year, albeit on poor clubs, and despite not generating much hype, grade out as high-end second liners."

By the numbers: Measuring the value of this year’s...

This is getting ridiculous...

I'm not talking about this year. I've said all along his numbers this year are good! That's part of my argument, why it's a bad idea to offer him a longterm extension based solely on his play from this year. He is in a contract year, it is common for players to have better numbers in contract years. In my opinion, he is over achieving this year. A more accurate indicator of what kind of player he is, is reflected from his last 4 years, where he averaged 45 points. A sample size of his previous 300 games is far more accurate than 60 games this year.

Signing him to 6+ million because he's had a good 60 games this year is nonsensical. Why are we ignoring his last 4 years where he was still given 1st line minutes, yet produced as an average second liner? I have never said Nyquist is terrible. All I'm saying is he is an AVERAGE 2ND LINER and that you should not pay AVERAGE 2ND LINERS 6 million per year.

 

[TCNorthstars]

If you're looking for a new opponent, you should go for Amazon. So many people buying ebooks, giving out their credit card information willy nilly just to buy e-words.

You didn't even have to the the ebooks part. By ordering anything on Amazon you are giving your cc number to a website with words on it.

 

[Shaman464]

Ok good, so you agree nobody said Nyquist is a 70 point player. I'm beginning to think you don't know what direct quotes are.



Context. You left out the part where the poster said that hit UFA. He would be in that top tier of wingers that actually hit the open market. The big boys usually don't enter free agency.



Tavares is an outlier. Given your background I know you know what outliers are. Quit with the hyperbole.

Panarin, Stone, Duchene, Simmons, Eberle, among others are as likely to hit UFA as Nyquist. They are a tier higher than Nyquist. Therefore Nyquist isn’t top tier. He’s second tier.

 

[Hen Kolland]

That's part of my argument, why it's a bad idea to offer him a longterm extension based solely on his play from this year.

Reasonable, but someone will pay based on this year; it's how the league works.

He is in a contract year, it is common for players to have better numbers in contract years.

Hearsay. You can't say this because you have no statistical evidence to prove that it's accurate. Literally the only thing that we can say about player performance in contract years is that every single talking head from media outlets will talk about how "player wants to take his game to a new level in his contract year" but actually players actually doing it is unsubstantiated.

In my opinion, he is over achieving this year, and an accurate indicator of what kind of player he is, is reflected from his last 4 years, where he averaged 45 points. A sample size of his previous 300 games is far more accurate than 60 games this year.

Fair point, and agreed. At the end of the day, Nyquist has a lot more of a fog around what he is and will be moving forward. He played a majority of his career next to an aging and injured Zetterberg. Now, he has Larkin, which gives a completely different dynamic considering the pace of play. I don't disagree with you that giving him 6+ million is ill-advised, but if you are going to call people out for miscasting him as a first line winger, I have to step in and point out that he isn't an average 2nd line winger in the right situation.

Put him next to McDavid or Crosby or Tavares, you're looking at someone who plays like a solidified first line winger. Put him next to Frans Nielsen or Luke Glendening and you are looking at someone who plays like a third line winger who goes through anemic stretches. What it boils down to is that he is a complementary piece; if you need a winger to support a good first or second line center, you will likely get a good first or second line winger. But if you're going to put him next to someone who needs assistance in carrying a middle 6 line, you'll probably be underwhelmed. How you want to value a player like that....I'd wish you the best of luck.

Edit: grammatical errors

 

[Shaman464]

Just because I am bored, I did some leg work to put this into context.

Of all forwards in hockey this year, Nyquist ranks #64 in total points. Of the 63 players above him, 37 of the players are listed as centers. Which means that of combined RW and LW, Nyquist ranks 27th. There are 31 teams, all of which need two first line wingers. That would be 62 wingers that qualify as first line wingers. Therefore, low first line winger is more than a safe and adequate description. No matter how you try to frame it, he is producing at a first line rate.

But I'm sure there will be some other qualifier that someone comes up with the detract from his resume.

Over the last 3 years, of forwards that have played at least 82 games, he's 85th in points and 126th in ppg. He's not a low first liner. He's a mediocre second liner.

 

[SirloinUB]

I feel Nyquist is getting a bit underrated here.

• I would argue that Nyquist is a reliable 50 point player. 4 of his last 6 seasons saw him play at a 50 point (or better pace). His career points/game is 0.61 which projects out to exactly 50 points over 82 games.
• Scoring 50 points over a season will rank you around 100th in points among forwards.
• Mathematically speaking, finishing 100th in scoring (among forwards) would mean you're a borderline 1st liner or a high end 2nd liner (3 forwards on a top line x 31 teams = 93 top line skaters)

 

[Shaman464]

Hearsay. You can't say this because you have no statistical evidence to prove that it's accurate. Literally the only thing that we can say about player performance in contract years is that every single talking head from media outlets will talk about how "player wants to take his game to a new level in his contract year" but actually players actually doing it is unsubstantiated.


Edit: grammatical errors

Actually there is *some* basis for the contract year bump, especially in the good but not elite players who see a single year rise in points before a contract: NHL Stat check: Do hockey players step it up in contract year?

 

[Shaman464]

I feel Nyquist is getting a bit underrated here.

• I would argue that Nyquist is a reliable 50 point player. 4 of his last 6 seasons saw him play at a 50 point (or better pace). His career points/game is 0.61 which projects out to exactly 50 points over 82 games.
• Scoring 50 points over a season will rank you around 100th in points among forwards.
• Mathematically speaking, finishing 100th in scoring would mean you're a borderline 1st liner or a high end 2nd liner (3 forwards on a top line x 31 teams = 93 top line skaters)

Over the last three years he's scored at that 0.6 per game. Over the last three years, there were 125 players who played at least 82 games that have had a better ppg than that. So, from that data set he's a mediocre 2nd liner.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Over the last 3 years, of forwards that have played at least 82 games, he's 85th in points and 126th in ppg. He's not a low first liner. He's a mediocre second liner.

Active NHL Forward Stats in Last 5 Seasons

Using this site, looking at the last 5 years and active forwards playing more than 20 games, he is #115 in P/GP. There are 31 teams, and 3 forwards per first line. That's 93 forwards that qualify as first liners, so no, he wouldn't be a low end first liner by an exact mathematical equation, but that would make him #22/93 second liners. That's 76th percentile, which I would consider a high end second liner. Which is pretty much what I have said in total, not looking at a single season.

But thanks for making an attempt to fact check me over something I wasn't even discussing.

 

[SirloinUB]

Over the last three years he's scored at that 0.6 per game. Over the last three years, there were 125 players who played at least 82 games that have had a better ppg than that. So, from that data set he's a mediocre 2nd liner.

Even with your numbers he is among the top third of second liners. However his true points/game over the 3 years is closer to .63 than .6 which would put him in the top 20 second line forwards.

You can get hung up on titles but the numbers don't lie; he is a borderline first line forward or high-end second liner.

 

[Shaman464]

Even with your numbers he is among the top third of second liners. However his true points/game over the 3 years is closer to .63 than .6 which would put him in the top 20 second line forwards.

You can get hung up on titles but the numbers don't lie; he is a borderline first line forward or high-end second liner.

Sorry, meant 4 season (per NHL.com), but still, 0.6 over that period puts him well outside of the cut for first liner. 83rd to 103rd would be your borderline. 126th is not borderline, its right at the middle of the second line, which is definitionally mediocre.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Huh? It's quality journalism through and through. It's your choice to pay or not pay but nothing I have encountered on the athletic is "shady" or "sleazy"

Custance is one of the best in the business. You also don't have to deal with all those awful ads on sites like MLIVE where the content is free. The Athletic is a steal at the current price.

 

[Shaman464]

Active NHL Forward Stats in Last 5 Seasons

Using this site, looking at the last 5 years and active forwards playing more than 20 games, he is #115 in P/GP. There are 31 teams, and 3 forwards per first line. That's 93 forwards that qualify as first liners, so no, he wouldn't be a low end first liner by an exact mathematical equation, but that would make him #22/93 second liners. That's 76th percentile, which I would consider a high end second liner. Which is pretty much what I have said in total, not looking at a single season.

But thanks for making an attempt to fact check me over something I wasn't even discussing.

There haven't been 31 teams over the last 5 years. There has been 3 years with 30 teams. Also, oddly, your source doesn't match NHL.com's ppg ranking, though the criteria I used for NHL.com should have excluded more players, but yet it has Nyquist 2-4 spots higher on the reports than NHL.com

 

[DetroitRed]

Yeah, those Green, Vanek, and Daley contracts are some of the worst I have ever seen!

All examples of guys he shouldn't have signed in the first place or signed for a season or two too long.

At Howard's age, it would be easy for Holland to sign him for a season too long, and judging by what Howard got last time, a season too long is way better than we have reason to hope for.

 

[Hen Kolland]

There haven't been 31 teams over the last 5 years. There has been 3 years with 30 teams. Also, oddly, your source doesn't match NHL.com's ppg ranking, though the criteria I used for NHL.com should have excluded more players, but yet it has Nyquist 2-4 spots higher on the reports than NHL.com

Okay, difference of source is negligible, I think that’s reasonable. We could put him at 125 and I wouldn’t change my mind.

30/31 teams gripe is fair if you’re looking year by year to determine where he ranks, but if we do that you have to acknowledge that he’s a first line player this year. I just arbitrarily picked 31 because it’s what we currently have, and I’m only including active players which ties in with my number of teams.

As with every argument on here, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle

 

[izlez]

Whatever Nyquist is, he's one of the better ones we got in the organization. So if we ever plan on winning hockey games again, we should consider keeping him.



And I feel like I should clarify at this point. I'm advocating CONSIDERING re-signing him based on the return I think he's going to generate at the trade deadline. Which for a winger, with so many other wingers available, is a 3rd rounder. You're either "overpaying" him, "overpaying" some other UFA, or you are not winning any hockey games any time soon... which I know is everyone's favorite option around here

 

[Shaman464]

Okay, difference of source is negligible, I think that’s reasonable. We could put him at 125 and I wouldn’t change my mind.

30/31 teams gripe is fair if you’re looking year by year to determine where he ranks, but if we do that you have to acknowledge that he’s a first line player this year. I just arbitrarily picked 31 because it’s what we currently have, and I’m only including active players which ties in with my number of teams.

As with every argument on here, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle

Realistically my point being is that he's not some bastion of the first lines of the league. Hes in the most replaceable spot in the top 6 forwards/top 4 D-men. Moving on from him isn't going to kneecap the team. Right now, Mantha, AA, and Bert all are relatively close to his production, and there is Zadina, and possibly Svech and Ras. There are even free agent options, that could replace his production. He's just looking to be another example of a role player who will get his retirement contract because he's a life long Wing. And the fact that that culture still exists is troubling.

 

[Shaman464]

Whatever Nyquist is, he's one of the better ones we got in the organization. So if we ever plan on winning hockey games again, we should consider keeping him.



And I feel like I should clarify at this point. I'm advocating CONSIDERING re-signing him based on the return I think he's going to generate at the trade deadline. Which for a winger, with so many other wingers available, is a 3rd rounder. You're either "overpaying" him, "overpaying" some other UFA, or you are not winning any hockey games any time soon... which I know is everyone's favorite option around here

By the time Detroit is ready to compete for anything, Nyquist would be entering his mid thirties and the team will have AA, Bert, Mantha, Zadina, Ras, and a couple more drafts worth of picks that could round out the top 6. So that's at least 5 players, not even counting Svech, that could easily slot in into the top 6 by the time the team should be done rebuilding. Replacing a Nyquist should be this teams least concern.

 

[izlez]

By the time Detroit is ready to compete for anything, Nyquist would be entering his mid thirties and the team will have AA, Bert, Mantha, Zadina, Ras, and a couple more drafts worth of picks that could round out the top 6. So that's at least 5 players, not even counting Svech, that could easily slot in into the top 6 by the time the team should be done rebuilding. Replacing a Nyquist should be this teams least concern.

I don't know, depending on your opinion of Nyquist, he's somewhere between the best and 5th best winger we've drafted in the past 13 or so years. To say that we'll easily find replacement players for the top 6 seems like a stretch to me.

I can't help but think of all of the "Project the (current year+3) starting lineup" threads that are filled with nothing but draft picks.... and are wildly wrong in the end.

 

[Shaman464]

I don't know, depending on your opinion of Nyquist, he's somewhere between the best and 5th best winger we've drafted in the past 13 or so years. To say that we'll easily find replacement players for the top 6 seems like a stretch to me.

I can't help but think of all of the "Project the (current year+3) starting lineup" threads that are filled with nothing but draft picks.... and are wildly wrong in the end.

Well, Mantha, Bert, and AA already regularly play in the top 6, so that’s 3 of 4. Realistically they need one of Svech, Ras, or Zadina to make it. They are all first round picks and two are top 10 picks. By sheer luck one should pan out.

 

[TCNorthstars]

All examples of guys he shouldn't have signed in the first place or signed for a season or two too long.

At Howard's age, it would be easy for Holland to sign him for a season too long, and judging by what Howard got last time, a season too long is way better than we have reason to hope for.

So our best defender who was signed for 2 years was signed for 1 or 2 too long? Vanek was signed for 1 year too long on a one year deal? Daley who has been solid when healthy was signed for 1 or 2 years too long? Lol. Those are very poor examples you are using for bad Holland deals. You are living in the past. Let it go man.

 

[Dotter]

By the time Detroit is ready to compete for anything, Nyquist would be entering his mid thirties and the team will have AA, Bert, Mantha, Zadina, Ras, and a couple more drafts worth of picks that could round out the top 6. So that's at least 5 players, not even counting Svech, that could easily slot in into the top 6 by the time the team should be done rebuilding. Replacing a Nyquist should be this teams least concern.

It's not about the future, it's about the now. It is better for the hockey club to have a chance at winning games, or atleast not get constantly embarrassed which causes bitterness / meltdowns in the locker room, but rather have the kids that feel good about playing games and thrive to win.

For example, would it be better for our 'kids' if the team loses 5-1 against the Flyers the other night, or is it better if the kids learn the 'never say quit' mantra (Red Wings Hockey) and come back with a vengeance and scores 4 goals, tie the game in the final seconds and forces OT? (Even though they still lose.)

Which is better for development?

You talk about being competitive in the future, but why shouldn't they be competitive now? Why do you want the kids to learn how to lay down and die after the other team scores a goal?

^ Above is free content. No need to pay, just smash that like button! #boycottpaidcontent

 

[Winger98]

want to know why Nyquist won't get a decent return? Because teams like Minny deal Charlie Coyle for a modest prospect and a 5th.

 

[RedWingzz]

Reasonable, but someone will pay based on this year; it's how the league works.



Hearsay. You can't say this because you have no statistical evidence to prove that it's accurate. Literally the only thing that we can say about player performance in contract years is that every single talking head from media outlets will talk about how "player wants to take his game to a new level in his contract year" but actually players actually doing it is unsubstantiated.



Fair point, and agreed. At the end of the day, Nyquist has a lot more of a fog around what he is and will be moving forward. He played a majority of his career next to an aging and injured Zetterberg. Now, he has Larkin, which gives a completely different dynamic considering the pace of play. I don't disagree with you that giving him 6+ million is ill-advised, but if you are going to call people out for miscasting him as a first line winger, I have to step in and point out that he isn't an average 2nd line winger in the right situation.

Put him next to McDavid or Crosby or Tavares, you're looking at someone who plays like a solidified first line winger. Put him next to Frans Nielsen or Luke Glendening and you are looking at someone who plays like a third line winger who goes through anemic stretches. What it boils down to is that he is a complementary piece; if you need a winger to support a good first or second line center, you will likely get a good first or second line winger. But if you're going to put him next to someone who needs assistance in carrying a middle 6 line, you'll probably be underwhelmed. How you want to value a player like that....I'd wish you the best of luck.

Edit: grammatical errors

Fair enough, in the end this is all semantics. The lowest people are rating him (myself included) is as an average 2nd liner, whereas in some people's opinions, he is a low end first liner. Regardless, I can't justify handing out the (approximate) 100th best forward in the NHL, based on statistical data over the last 5 years, 6+ million per year. That's really all there is to it. He was a good player for us, went on some crazy offensive stretches and scored some nice goals. Also went on long cold-streaks and has a brutal playoff resume so far. I will wish him well, wherever he goes, but I see no point in bringing him back.

We have enough "veteran leadership" in Abdelkader