2019 offseason - what will these FAs re-sign for?

[LeftHeartInSF]

Cap hit aside, I would love Pavelski (favorite player and have his jersey) but I wouldn't go higher than $4M AAV and doubt he'll sign for such a hometown discount.

I dunno, Tavares just left $13m on the table in the prime of his career. Pavs could easily do something, especially after seeing Thornton do it. Maybe not the most likely scenario, but possible.

 

[LA Shark]

I'm assuming Pavs and EK65 will be DW's main concern. Trade Melker, Dell, and Braun, let Donskoi walk. I'd prefer to trade Vlasic over Braun, but trying to be realistic.

 

[LeeIFBB]

Would be very surprised if Pavelski took a discount.

Great player for the Sharks, but I'll always remember him for playing some of his worst hockey in the single biggest moment for the franchise.

 

[LA Shark]

Would be very surprised if Pavelski took a discount.

I could see a slight discount, like taking 6.5 here instead of 7.5 somewhere. But nowhere near the 4 mil proposed above.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Would be very surprised if Pavelski took a discount.

Great player for the Sharks, but I'll always remember him for playing some of his worst hockey in the single biggest moment for the franchise.

They would’ve never been there without him, and Thornton played just as poorly.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

1. Erik Karlsson ($10M AAV, 7 years)
2. Timo Meier (4 years, between 4.5 and 5M)
3. Joonas Donskoi ($2.5M max. if he wants more let him walk)
4. Joe Pavelski ($7.5M, 3 years)
5. Kevin LaBanc ($2M max)
6. Antti Suomela ($1M max, hasn't proved himself at the NHL level to earn more)
7. Joe Thornton ($3.5-4M, 2 years)
8. Marcus Sorenson ($1.25-1.5M)
9. Joakim Ryan ($1.25-1.5M)
10. Tim Heed (wont resign unless PDB is fired, Heed does not like PDB)

No, Panarin is not worth 10M. He isn't even worth 8M. Let some other GM make that mistake.

Um, what? Panarin is not even worth $8M? Logan Couture just got 8X8 from us and Panarin has outscored him by over 20 points every season he has been in the league. Since Panarin entered the NHL, he has 198 even strength points, and in that same time frame, Couture has 179 points at all situations.

Panarin is also 2 and a half years younger.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Matthews isn't a typical shooter or playmaker...he's a solid allrounder with many strenghts but no weaknesses. A top5 Centerman already...at least. If you can't score more than 60 points on the wing of such a Center then you suck ass. No other way to put it. Again. Meier would probably score 100 or more if playing with Matthews. I mean even friggin Alex Burrows reached 67 playing with the Sedins. Also don't forget that Nylander is as much of a one way player as it gets. Zero defense, zero physicality, zero strength on the puck. Only points and giveaways.

That's an assessment of Matthews that is more accurate than what you were saying before about him. Nylander has done fine with Matthews. He's scored more than 60 points with him twice. The second season he would've scored more than the 61 if Matthews wasn't injured for 20 games. Nylander helps Matthews be better in the possession game and the next few years will likely increase their production together if they remain. The idea that Meier would probably score 100 or more playing with Matthews is absurd and can't be backed up by anything credible. Burrows and the Sedins are irrelevant to this discussion. Meier's defensive play isn't exactly something I'd tout because it's about as useful as Nylander's.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

1) I suspect Panarin will get more.
2) I'm not sure Ryan and Suomela will be able to command that much considering the season either player is having.
3) There is definitely some risk slotting Chmelevski, Merkley and Kotkov(!) into the NHL lineup right away.

Lastly, at this point, Meier could really make a push for a much more lucrative contract. After all, what does Nylander have over Meier? Since December 2017 I'd say Meier has been the decidedly superior player.

You could shave half a million off of Suomela and Ryan and give that to Panarin if he needs it. Hell, if Panarin wants $12M and we can make it fit, we can trade LaBanc as well.

The flaw of the lineup is certainly a lack of depth. That’s the issue. Some might prefer the space to comfortably bring back Pavelski, Sorensen, Thornton, etc. I prefer the top-end talent of Panarin.

Kotkov was just a name I threw in there because he has a contract. You can replace him with Radil, Gambrell, etc...

As has been mentioned, Meier won’t get as much as Nylander. A closer comparable is Alex Tuch.

 

[Hinterland]

That's an assessment of Matthews that is more accurate than what you were saying before about him. Nylander has done fine with Matthews. He's scored more than 60 points with him twice. The second season he would've scored more than the 61 if Matthews wasn't injured for 20 games. Nylander helps Matthews be better in the possession game and the next few years will likely increase their production together if they remain. The idea that Meier would probably score 100 or more playing with Matthews is absurd and can't be backed up by anything credible. Burrows and the Sedins are irrelevant to this discussion. Meier's defensive play isn't exactly something I'd tout because it's about as useful as Nylander's.

Not a good post. Matthews is much better than Couture so Meier would score a lot more playing with Matthews. Burrows isn't completely irrelevant since I used him to prove that even a bad player can score 60+ points when playing with a superstar. There are countless other examples. Nylander couldn't even score more than 60 as Matthews' sidekick and those aren't good numbers. To even compare Meier's defense to a one way player like Nylander is crazy. Nylander is 100% useless besides the points he puts up. Basically a poor club's Johnny Gaudreau.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Not a good post. Matthews is much better than Couture so Meier would score a lot more playing with Matthews. Burrows isn't completely irrelevant since I used him to prove that even a bad player can score 60+ points when playing with a superstar. There are countless other examples. Nylander couldn't even score more than 60 as Matthews' sidekick and those aren't good numbers. To even compare Meier's defense to a one way player like Nylander is crazy. Nylander is 100% useless besides the points he puts up. Basically a poor club's Johnny Gaudreau.

Your arguments and takes are far too simplistic to be given any merit. Burrows with the Sedins that one year back in 2009-10 has absolutely no relevance to a conversation about players in 2018-19 with one individual like Auston Matthews. You say that he can't even score more than 60 as Matthews' sidekick yet he has consecutive 61 point seasons. You are in way over your head on this because of your simplistic and also plainly incorrect views on this topic.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think there’s a real comparison to be made between Nylander and Meier but not in terms of contract discussions. Contract discussions are based on tangible evidence and Nylander had two straight seasons of 60 points when he signed. Meier has one season of 6 points, one season of 36 points, and will probably finish this season with roughly 60 points.

Also remember that Kyle Dubas gave a ton of leverage to Nylander when he said “we can, and we will” in response to signing all of those guys. It was a rookie mistake that hurt him in contract negotiations. On top of that, Nylander’s father was a guy who historically made contract negotiations very difficult for the teams that he signed with and he likely had a big influence on his son doing the same.

 

[WTFetus]

I don't think it hurt Dubas in contract negotiations at all. ~7m for a 22 year old with already 60+ seasons is a good deal. The fact that he signed him at the last minute gave him the flexibility to overpay him the one season they have cap-space, and get value for the rest of his contract. This could've very well been their plan all along. If DW did this, we'd all be calling him a genius.

 

[Hinterland]

I think there’s a real comparison to be made between Nylander and Meier but not in terms of contract discussions. Contract discussions are based on tangible evidence and Nylander had two straight seasons of 60 points when he signed. Meier has one season of 6 points, one season of 36 points, and will probably finish this season with roughly 60 points.

Also remember that Kyle Dubas gave a ton of leverage to Nylander when he said “we can, and we will” in response to signing all of those guys. It was a rookie mistake that hurt him in contract negotiations. On top of that, Nylander’s father was a guy who historically made contract negotiations very difficult for the teams that he signed with and he likely had a big influence on his son doing the same.

If Meier stays healthy he'll score a lot more than 60 points and he's scoring at this rate not just this season but pretty much since getting used more or less properly. It's also evidence that Nylander is a one way player with a terrible allround game while Meier is as strong on the puck as anybody, can dominate physically and is pretty good defensively, too. Nylander sucks ass big time in all of those areas and scored his 60 points as Matthews' sidekick. He wouldn't have scored them with the Sharks. I agree with what you said about Dubas though.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think there’s a real comparison to be made between Nylander and Meier but not in terms of contract discussions. Contract discussions are based on tangible evidence and Nylander had two straight seasons of 60 points when he signed. Meier has one season of 6 points, one season of 36 points, and will probably finish this season with roughly 60 points.

Also remember that Kyle Dubas gave a ton of leverage to Nylander when he said “we can, and we will” in response to signing all of those guys. It was a rookie mistake that hurt him in contract negotiations. On top of that, Nylander’s father was a guy who historically made contract negotiations very difficult for the teams that he signed with and he likely had a big influence on his son doing the same.

Meier is basically on a ppg pace. From what I have seen, there is little to statistically support arguments that Meier is due for regression.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

If Meier stays healthy he'll score a lot more than 60 points and he's scoring at this rate not just this season but pretty much since getting used more or less properly. It's also evidence that Nylander is a one way player with a terrible allround game while Meier is as strong on the puck as anybody, can dominate physically and is pretty good defensively, too. Nylander sucks ass big time in all of those areas and scored his 60 points as Matthews' sidekick. He wouldn't have scored them with the Sharks. I agree with what you said about Dubas though.

Timo Meier has 34 goals and 26 assists in his last 82 games and that's about what we can expect from him going forward. That's about the same as Nylander but Nylander did it over an 82 game sample size over the course of the only 2 seasons he played in the NHL. Meier is already fighting an uphill battle with 36 points last season if he wants that kind of money.

Things like "Nylander sucks ass big time" and "Matthews' sidekick" don't play as much of a role in contract negotiations as you seem to think.

I don't think it hurt Dubas in contract negotiations at all. ~7m for a 22 year old with already 60+ seasons is a good deal. The fact that he signed him at the last minute gave him the flexibility to overpay him the one season they have cap-space, and get value for the rest of his contract. This could've very well been their plan all along. If DW did this, we'd all be calling him a genius.

He didn't give him a ton of leverage but it absolutely couldn't have helped. It is incredibly evident that Dubas handled that situation like a rookie and it couldn't have helped him. Doug Wilson isn't making all of the best decisions right now, but he isn't going to walk into Meier negotiations and make the rookie mistakes that Dubas did.

Nylander got a higher AAV and percentage of the cap hit than his closest comparable in Ehlers, a slightly higher AAV and slightly lower cap hit than a superior comparable at the time he signed in Pastrnak, and a higher AAV and percentage of the cap hit to another superior comparable in Filip Forsberg. All of them got 6 years except for Pastrnak who got 7. All 3 of these players are considered superior to Nylander and scored more goals and points in their best years before signing.

Nylander was slightly overpaid. It's not a bad contract or one that I wouldn't add to my team but it is a slight overpayment. It's almost certainly not one that Doug Wilson would have made.

If it was their plan all along, then it was cap circumvention and IMO, it revealed a loophole in the CBA regardless of whether or not it was intentional. There are people on here that would call DW a genius for passing remedial algebra, so I don't think that's all that big of a deal.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Meier is basically on a ppg pace. From what I have seen, there is little to statistically support arguments that Meier is due for regression.

10 of his 14 assists are secondary and secondary assists are a weaker predictor of future assists than primary assists.

His 5V5 oiSH% of 11.26% is very high. Last season, Dylan DeMelo led full-time Sharks with a 5V5 oiSH% of 8.45%, and only 5 players who played over 500 minutes had an oiSH% of 11.26% or higher.

Outside of that, his goal scoring may not be entirely sustainable, but it's pretty close and it could be offset with 1st unit power play time. He is probably a legitimate 40 goal player or close if given that PP time but his assists likely top out at 25-30.

 

[tiburon12]

I'm trying to think of players who rode shotgun to a superstar and had point totals well above their average, like some people are arguing Nylander is. Belesky? Couturier? Arvidsson? Not that many i can think of. Arvidsson seems like a good comparable. Great player, but probably couldn't carry his own line, though i think Nylander could.

Timo Meier has 34 goals and 26 assists in his last 82 games and that's about what we can expect from him going forward. That's about the same as Nylander but Nylander did it over an 82 game sample size over the course of the only 2 seasons he played in the NHL. Meier is already fighting an uphill battle with 36 points last season if he wants that kind of money.

Things like "Nylander sucks ass big time" and "Matthews' sidekick" don't play as much of a role in contract negotiations as you seem to think.



He didn't give him a ton of leverage but it absolutely couldn't have helped. It is incredibly evident that Dubas handled that situation like a rookie and it couldn't have helped him. Doug Wilson isn't making all of the best decisions right now, but he isn't going to walk into Meier negotiations and make the rookie mistakes that Dubas did.

Nylander got a higher AAV and percentage of the cap hit than his closest comparable in Ehlers, a slightly higher AAV and slightly lower cap hit than a superior comparable at the time he signed in Pastrnak, and a higher AAV and percentage of the cap hit to another superior comparable in Filip Forsberg. All of them got 6 years except for Pastrnak who got 7. All 3 of these players are considered superior to Nylander and scored more goals and points in their best years before signing.

Nylander was slightly overpaid. It's not a bad contract or one that I wouldn't add to my team but it is a slight overpayment. It's almost certainly not one that Doug Wilson would have made.

If it was their plan all along, then it was cap circumvention and IMO, it revealed a loophole in the CBA regardless of whether or not it was intentional. There are people on here that would call DW a genius for passing remedial algebra, so I don't think that's all that big of a deal.

We'll doug would have never said anything to the media, and that's just his policy (don't talk about contract negotiations. I'm not in the camp that thinks it hurt Dubas at all. It's just media/fan fodder. Imagine if he said "we're prepared to let him walk", he'd be up to his neck in shit from the media and rabid fans. In reality, what he said was zero-sum to Nylander. But none of this matters to the thread lol

 

[Hinterland]

I'm trying to think of players who rode shotgun to a superstar and had point totals well above their average, like some people are arguing Nylander is. Belesky? Couturier? Arvidsson? Not that many i can think of. Arvidsson seems like a good comparable. Great player, but probably couldn't carry his own line, though i think Nylander could.



We'll doug would have never said anything to the media, and that's just his policy (don't talk about contract negotiations. I'm not in the camp that thinks it hurt Dubas at all. It's just media/fan fodder. Imagine if he said "we're prepared to let him walk", he'd be up to his neck in **** from the media and rabid fans. In reality, what he said was zero-sum to Nylander. But none of this matters to the thread lol

Nylander couldn't carry anybody...he has to be carried. He works as Matthews' sidekick but couldn't produce anything but turnovers on his own.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Timo Meier has 34 goals and 26 assists in his last 82 games and that's about what we can expect from him going forward. That's about the same as Nylander but Nylander did it over an 82 game sample size over the course of the only 2 seasons he played in the NHL. Meier is already fighting an uphill battle with 36 points last season if he wants that kind of money.

You're basing what we should expect from Meier going forward on an 82 game stretch between his first full season and 2nd season? He's pretty much been our best forward when he's in the lineup. I fully think he's capable of 40 goals and 70-80 pts. I'd take Meier over Nylander right now, pay wise I'd expect Meier to get around 5.5-6M for a 3 yr bridge deal

 

[Hinterland]

You're basing what we should expect from Meier going forward on an 82 game stretch between his first full season and 2nd season? He's pretty much been our best forward when he's in the lineup. I fully think he's capable of 40 goals and 70-80 pts. I'd take Meier over Nylander right now, pay wise I'd expect Meier to get around 5.5-6M for a 3 yr bridge deal

I agree with this. However, Wilson has to try and sign Meier longterm...otherwise Meier is gonna cost sick money in three years...

 

[Mattb124]

In 29 games Meier has put up ~80% of the production Tuch put up in the entire RS last year. With that, I think Tuch's contract is diminishing as a reasonable comp.

If we are projecting AAV for a 6-7 year deal, Meier will be closer to Nylander (~$6MM?).

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't think they can sign Karlsson, Pavelski, and also sign Meier to a long term deal. I think the best idea is to bridge him for as long as you want to sign Pavelski for whether it's two or three years then let Pavs' money be what pays Meier after the bridge.

 

[Big Cactus]

Would be very surprised if Pavelski took a discount.

Great player for the Sharks, but I'll always remember him for playing some of his worst hockey in the single biggest moment for the franchise.

Not sure how you can criticize 14 goals in 24 games. That’s a 48 goal pace in the playoffs, he wasn’t the problem. That Pittsburgh team was gonna roll anybody that played them.

 

[Big Cactus]

Nylander couldn't carry anybody...he has to be carried. He works as Matthews' sidekick but couldn't produce anything but turnovers on his own.

This couldn’t be further from the truth. Nylander is the leafs best possession forward and Matthews advanced numbers fall quite a bit without him (as do his).

If Timo puts up 70 pts this year he’ll have a season and a half sample of production at that pace. I see him getting around 6 but like Nylander it’s an interesting discussion because you can clearly see he’s trending towards better production. Maybe we’ll see a bridge because a long term deal might be tough to work out. If the cap goes up another 3-4 mill it might be even harder to agree on a number.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

10 of his 14 assists are secondary and secondary assists are a weaker predictor of future assists than primary assists.

His 5V5 oiSH% of 11.26% is very high. Last season, Dylan DeMelo led full-time Sharks with a 5V5 oiSH% of 8.45%, and only 5 players who played over 500 minutes had an oiSH% of 11.26% or higher.

Outside of that, his goal scoring may not be entirely sustainable, but it's pretty close and it could be offset with 1st unit power play time. He is probably a legitimate 40 goal player or close if given that PP time but his assists likely top out at 25-30.

Not that you're wrong but didn't Karlsson in Vegas have a ridiculous shooting percentage last year? 11% isn't impossible but may be unlikely. In his 56 goal year didn't Cheechoo have an insane shooting percentage?