2019 offseason - what will these FAs re-sign for?

[Gilligans Island]

Like many of us, I've been wondering what our FAs will be re-signed for or if they'll be dealt at the TDL or in the offseason (applies to RFAs, mainly).

Here's my prioritized list w/ cap hit (AAV). I'm assuming the 2019-20 cap is $82.3M (~3.5% more than this season's cap) when guessing at their AAV.

UFA / RFA

1. Erik Karlsson ($11M AAV)
2. Timo Meier ($4.75M?? see comment below)
3. Joonas Donskoi ($3.25M AAV or trade him)
4. Joe Pavelski (toughest - all depends on if EK re-signs; see comment below)
5. Kevin LaBanc ($2M or trade him)
6. Antti Suomela ($1.4M)
7. Joe Thornton ($3.5M)
8. Marcus Sorenson ($1.25M)
9. Joakim Ryan ($1.25M)
10. Tim Heed ($750K or replacement at league min)

Comments:
* Obviously, the below all hinges on if EK re-signs. If he doesn't, there really won't be many tough calls for DW..
* Timo: at this rate, he's playing out of the 2-yr bridge. Might be smart to do as Poile does in Nashville and sign him for X years (that include 1 or 2 UFAs). Would $4.75M do it? Who are his comps? We have arb rights so could play hardball but he'll be the toughest case in awhile)
* Pavs: SUPER tough if EK re-signs. It's between him and Donskoi, I think, and Donskoi is cheaper and younger...
* Also, if Jumbo comes back, reasonable to assume he'll be cheaper but after everyone else, there's not a lot left and this assumes...
* Braun+Labanc are traded for a top 6 fwd (ideally, C) and that "new top 6 fwd" has to get paid, which means, even more likely that it'll come down to Pavs and Donskoi.

Anyhow - know it's way early and the TDL can change everything. And I know there's been talk in other threads but figured why not have a new thread for this coming offseason.

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[TomasHertlsRooster]

In my eyes, we probably ditch a few of Melker, Braun, Dillon, Dell, and replace them with <$1M players. Then, we take care of everybody except for one of Pavelski and Donskoi.

Yes, Donskoi is cheaper and younger but he also has a career high of 14 goals and 36 points. Pavelski had 66 points last year and already has 13 goals this season. He’s also the team captain and extremely important to the team as a whole. I’ve flip flopped on this, and I love Donskoi, but I’m just gonna say it: Pavelski was our MVP last year, the captain, the heartbeat of the team, and is still a star player in this league.

Among all NHLers, Pavelski is 1st in games played, 3rd in goals, and 12th in points since 2013-2014. Every year, he looks bad for the first 10 games and then gets super hot and finishes with a bunch of points. He is still an integral piece of our team and if he’s willing to take a fair, team-friendly contract with reasonable term, we should not be keeping players like Joonas Donskoi over him.

There are other things to address - Alex Tuch is Meier’s closest comparable and he just signed for $4.75 long term, but Meier is starting to look like he is on another level, I don’t think we will add another top-6 C but LaBanc does strike me as a Setoguchi type who ends up being the sacrificial pawn in a trade, Thornton probably comes back at $1M if he even does come back, etc. But I think the biggest thing is going to be Pavelski Vs. Donskoi and it’s an interesting discussion for sure.

 

[OrrNumber4]

The Sharks do have a lot of young talent coming up, and that will have a major impact on what happens to those players. You have to think that Karlsson and Pavelski are the priorities...and that means goodbye to Donskoi and Sorensen, and Braun/Dillon/Karlsson via trade. If someone like Suomela or Labanc wants too much, he's also going to be gone.

I'd have to say though, that even without a budget crunch, you might have seen those players traded or left unsigned anyways. Perron, Halbegwachs, Letunov, Gambrell, and True have AHL numbers that are trending to "deserve an NHL shot" sooner rather than later. Blichfeld, Chmelevski, and Chekhovich are dark horses to be NHL ready on day one of training camp. I hesitant to count chickens before they hatch, but I'd be 80% confident that the Sharks could match/exceed the combined contributions of M.Karlsson, Suomela, Sorensen, and Labanc with the above group. Not to mention players like Ferraro, Simek, Wood, Roy, and Merkley on defense...though admittedly I think there would be a noticeable drop, at least initially, from Dillon and/or Braun.

 

[DG93]

Like many of us, I've been wondering what our FAs will be re-signed for or if they'll be dealt at the TDL or in the offseason (applies to RFAs, mainly).

Here's my prioritized list w/ cap hit (AAV). I'm assuming the 2019-20 cap is $82.3M (~3.5% more than this season's cap) when guessing at their AAV.

UFA / RFA

1. Erik Karlsson ($11M AAV)
2. Timo Meier ($4.75M?? see comment below)
3. Joonas Donskoi ($3.25M AAV or trade him)
4. Joe Pavelski (toughest - all depends on if EK re-signs; see comment below)
5. Kevin LaBanc ($2M or trade him)
6. Antti Suomela ($1.4M)
7. Joe Thornton ($3.5M)
8. Marcus Sorenson ($1.25M)
9. Joakim Ryan ($1.25M)
10. Tim Heed ($750K or replacement at league min)

Comments:
* Obviously, the below all hinges on if EK re-signs. If he doesn't, there really won't be many tough calls for DW..
* Timo: at this rate, he's playing out of the 2-yr bridge. Might be smart to do as Poile does in Nashville and sign him for X years (that include 1 or 2 UFAs). Would $4.75M do it? Who are his comps? We have arb rights so could play hardball but he'll be the toughest case in awhile)
* Pavs: SUPER tough if EK re-signs. It's between him and Donskoi, I think, and Donskoi is cheaper and younger...
* Also, if Jumbo comes back, reasonable to assume he'll be cheaper but after everyone else, there's not a lot left and this assumes...
* Braun+Labanc are traded for a top 6 fwd (ideally, C) and that "new top 6 fwd" has to get paid, which means, even more likely that it'll come down to Pavs and Donskoi.

Anyhow - know it's way early and the TDL can change everything. And I know there's been talk in other threads but figured why not have a new thread for this coming offseason.

I think most of these number are accurate, but with how Donskoi's production has fallen off, I think he can be re-signed for close to 2.5M and the other 750K can go towards locking up Meier on a 6yr 5.5M/per rate.

The Sharks do have a lot of young talent coming up, and that will have a major impact on what happens to those players. You have to think that Karlsson and Pavelski are the priorities...and that means goodbye to Donskoi and Sorensen, and Braun/Dillon/Karlsson via trade. If someone like Suomela or Labanc wants too much, he's also going to be gone.

I'd have to say though, that even without a budget crunch, you might have seen those players traded or left unsigned anyways. Perron, Halbegwachs, Letunov, Gambrell, and True have AHL numbers that are trending to "deserve an NHL shot" sooner rather than later. Blichfeld, Chmelevski, and Chekhovich are dark horses to be NHL ready on day one of training camp. I hesitant to count chickens before they hatch, but I'd be 80% confident that the Sharks could match/exceed the combined contributions of M.Karlsson, Suomela, Sorensen, and Labanc with the above group. Not to mention players like Ferraro, Simek, Wood, Roy, and Merkley on defense...though admittedly I think there would be a noticeable drop, at least initially, from Dillon and/or Braun.

I think Sorensen can be re-signed for the same deal as Goodrow, so I doubt they'll have to dump him. I also don't see Labanc getting much more than 2yrx2M/per deal.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think Sorensen can be re-signed for the same deal as Goodrow, so I doubt they'll have to dump him. I also don't see Labanc getting much more than 2yrx2M/per deal.

Sorensen looks to be on pace for more than 30 points, in limited minutes. Surely, he will be looking for a modest payday or at least a better opportunity; I am sure many teams would like to gamble that he could break out with more minutes.

Overall, the trap with these discussions, which I have fallen into, is that it gets so biased by how the player is playing currently. Meier, Sorensen, and Pavelski are on fire so we want to keep them. Labanc and Donskoi are slumping so they become disposable.

 

[tiburon12]

Sorensen looks to be on pace for more than 30 points, in limited minutes. Surely, he will be looking for a modest payday or at least a better opportunity; I am sure many teams would like to gamble that he could break out with more minutes.

Overall, the trap with these discussions, which I have fallen into, is that it gets so biased by how the player is playing currently. Meier, Sorensen, and Pavelski are on fire so we want to keep them. Labanc and Donskoi are slumping so they become disposable.

I agree with all of this. On Sorensen, he will be 27 at the end of this season. is 30 points higher than any of our prospects could chip in? Or maybe his agent will be smart and realize that players like him are expendable for younger talent, especially when the pay demands are sizable. Maybe he is OK with 1-1.5 for 2-3 years, even if his production indicates he should be paid more.

I get the feeling, and i have no basis for why i believe this, that both Thornton and Pavs will take huge hometown discounts. Jumbo around 1-2m (or as necessary), and Pavs around 4. Players want to make money, but they don't want to be anchors. Pavs will be 35 to start the next season, and i see no reason why he doesnt take a deal thats 12m/3y (6m,4m,2m) to ride out his career.

Lot's of time to let the dominoes fall into place

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I agree with all of this. On Sorensen, he will be 27 at the end of this season. is 30 points higher than any of our prospects could chip in? Or maybe his agent will be smart and realize that players like him are expendable for younger talent, especially when the pay demands are sizable. Maybe he is OK with 1-1.5 for 2-3 years, even if his production indicates he should be paid more.

I get the feeling, and i have no basis for why i believe this, that both Thornton and Pavs will take huge hometown discounts. Jumbo around 1-2m (or as necessary), and Pavs around 4. Players want to make money, but they don't want to be anchors. Pavs will be 35 to start the next season, and i see no reason why he doesnt take a deal thats 12m/3y (6m,4m,2m) to ride out his career.

Lot's of time to let the dominoes fall into place

Based on what we heard regarding Jumbo willing to take a pay cut if Tavares signed with us I am pretty sure he does the same if EK65 re-signs. The only sticking point in Jumbo's case may be if he wants Pavs to already be signed before he does so himself, something similar to what happened with him and Patty. I am not quite sold that Pavs takes a hometown discount though. At 34 this may be the last chance for him to get a big payday. Either way, despite how Pavs has played off late, I think it would still be ok to move away from both him and Jumbo.

As far as the numbers in the OP, I think they are pretty close I just don't know how you pay Labanc only 2M though. Guy is on a 46 point pace right now. I would be really surprised if he gets paid anything under 3M AAV.

 

[LadyStanley]

Here's my prioritized list w/ cap hit (AAV). I'm assuming the 2019-20 cap is $82.3M (~3.5% more than this season's cap) when guessing at their AAV.

2019-20 Salary Cap $81.4-85.4m (Oct BOG preliminary)

I think you're too high. Players don't like escrow so probably won't bump the escalator as high as that. Think it'll be much closer to $81.5m.

 

[Barrie22]

2019-20 Salary Cap $81.4-85.4m (Oct BOG preliminary)

I think you're too high. Players don't like escrow so probably won't bump the escalator as high as that. Think it'll be much closer to $81.5m.

All depends on when the seatle blood money gets calculated and sent through also.

 

[sharski]

Even if EK65 doesn't re-sign, I don't think Pavs stays. Someone is going to throw a ridiculous amount of cash at him and I think the Sharks let him walk.

 

[OffSydes]

American Dollars is my guess

 

[one2gamble]

I don't want to talk about it

 

[5H4RK5]

1 million each.........................stanley cup here we come.

 

[LadyStanley]

All depends on when the seatle blood money gets calculated and sent through also.

Expansion fees are not part of HRR. (Players don't see a dime of that, just the owners.)

 

[Barrie22]

Expansion fees are not part of HRR. (Players don't see a dime of that, just the owners.)

Then why were all the media talking about the bump in the cap being because of the vegas expansion fees.

 

[matt trick]

Then why were all the media talking about the bump in the cap being because of the vegas expansion fees.

Increased games= increased gate revenue I assume?

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Even if EK65 doesn't re-sign, I don't think Pavs stays. Someone is going to throw a ridiculous amount of cash at him and I think the Sharks let him walk.

That is very possible. I am pretty sure if money is what Pavs cares about, he will get better offers than what DW makes him. Also, then there is the fact that there have no contract negotiations with him (that we know of) and he is not the top priority right now. Not sure if that is something that makes him upset or not.

Jumbo came out last year and said that he would take lesser money to play in SJ if we got Tavares. I think we easily get him back in a 3C role next year for 2M or so, which is going to pretty good. I would actually love to see Chekhovich earn a spot next year in the top-9 if Pavs is gone.

Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Kane-Couture-Donskoi
Sorensne-Shovels-Chekhovich
Too-Many-Options

Dillon-Karlsson
Ryan-Burns
Vlasic-Simek

Ideal scenario for us would be to see both Chekhovich and Merkley make the jump to the NHL next year. And Melker needs to be gone for sure. Seeing him as a permanent spot on the 4th line upsets me because he is just eating up opportunities for the kids to step up into that role. I am having deja-vu with all the complaints @Juxtaposer made about Burish a few years back. This seems like a repeat scenario. I do think Melker is better than Burish (not saying much here) but that 2M is brutal. As well as we have players like Praplan, Radil, Perron, etc. who should be given a chance there.

 

[matt trick]

Not sure how expensive Donskoi and Sorensen will be, I'd love to have them back. That said I think that priorities need to be Karlsson followed by Pavs. I'd be curious if Pavs would take a long term deal for cheap like 7*5 that's heavily frontloaded. As a 38, 39, and 40 year old Pavs would probably be a ~2-3M player and he looks like a 7M player right now. Wouldn't be shocking to see him get 4*7 or 3*8, this would get him a contract like that followed by a /$2M per year in what will likely be a rough year 5, 6, and 7. At that cap hit, you could afford Karlsson, Donskoi, and a $1M Thornton.

On Meier, I might consider brindging him for two years. Within two years, I think you'd see all of Dell, Dillon, Braun, and Karlsson replaced.

I'd also bridge Ryan. He shouldn't be much more than Demelo based on usage, and I think he'd easily end up being worth it when Braun or Dillon are moved. Furthermore, I'm guessing that we lose Ryan to expansion in two years (7F, Vlasic, Burns, Karlsson) so it's not like a long-term contract will end up being a steal in a few years.

7F: Hertl, Couture, Pavs, Kane, Meier, Donskoi, Labanc/kid

Pavs contract: 7*5 (10, 9, 6, 6, 2, 1, 1)

 

[Barrie22]

I can't see the league allowing a contract that litterally is 2 days early from being a 35+ contract to a 7 year deal.

 

[matt trick]

Compared to Hossa, Zetterberg, and a couple of others I don't think this would show up on the leagues radar. I don't think it'd be crazy for Pavs to get several 6+ year offers, partially because he wipp be just under 35. Also, I'm sure the deal was done with his next contract being under 35 in mind. Not sure the PA would go for a "he's close enough rule from the league". It would be just our luck though!

 

[tony d]

I think Pavelski moves on but Karlsson will get 8 yrs. at 10.5 million per.

 

[hohosaregood]

giving pavelski a 7x5 contract would be absolutely nuts.

 

[fasterthanlight]

I think Joe Thornton will take a below market deal, e.g., 2M.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I think Pavelski moves on but Karlsson will get 8 yrs. at 10.5 million per.

But will he take it?

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

giving pavelski a 7x5 contract would be absolutely nuts.

Lets put it this way. If that happens, people will never complain about Kane's contract ..