2019 offseason - what will these FAs re-sign for?

[WSS11]

So this should be a no go now

Yeah, I love Panarin and all but no I’d rather give 11MM to EK

 

[Gilligans Island]

In my eyes, we probably ditch a few of Melker, Braun, Dillon, Dell, and replace them with <$1M players. Then, we take care of everybody except for one of Pavelski and Donskoi.

Yes, Donskoi is cheaper and younger but he also has a career high of 14 goals and 36 points. Pavelski had 66 points last year and already has 13 goals this season. He’s also the team captain and extremely important to the team as a whole. I’ve flip flopped on this, and I love Donskoi, but I’m just gonna say it: Pavelski was our MVP last year, the captain, the heartbeat of the team, and is still a star player in this league.

Among all NHLers, Pavelski is 1st in games played, 3rd in goals, and 12th in points since 2013-2014. Every year, he looks bad for the first 10 games and then gets super hot and finishes with a bunch of points. He is still an integral piece of our team and if he’s willing to take a fair, team-friendly contract with reasonable term, we should not be keeping players like Joonas Donskoi over him.

There are other things to address - Alex Tuch is Meier’s closest comparable and he just signed for $4.75 long term, but Meier is starting to look like he is on another level, I don’t think we will add another top-6 C but LaBanc does strike me as a Setoguchi type who ends up being the sacrificial pawn in a trade, Thornton probably comes back at $1M if he even does come back, etc. But I think the biggest thing is going to be Pavelski Vs. Donskoi and it’s an interesting discussion for sure.

Good call on Tuch as a comp for Meier. If Meier keeps it up, might be tough to bring him in on a similar deal, though.

If we do deal a Braun (or Dillon) + Labanc, it'll end up being a top 6 fwd, I bet, so that cap hit needs to be accounted for. Don't need any more top 4 D.

Cap hit aside, I would love Pavelski (favorite player and have his jersey) but I wouldn't go higher than $4M AAV and doubt he'll sign for such a hometown discount.

I could see Timo doing a 5 or 6 year deal at 4-4.25MM AAV then getting his big pay day after. No shot in hell Joe gets 3.5MM after this year and I’m on the side that I think Pavs walks unless he takes a discount. As PF mentioned, him getting the Holmstrom treatment on a nightly basis is going to wear on his body and his skating is a liability in the defensive and neutral zone as it is and will only get worse.

Yeah, if Jumbo re-signs, I'd love a $1.75M AAV +/- $500K. Hopefully he goes the Jagr route (keeps signing low AAV, 1 yr deals)

 

[SharksAddict]

Pavelski is quickly pricing himself out of the Sharks budget. The better he plays, the less likely he is to return IMO. They can't really afford to pay him what he'll fetch on the open market at this point.

This is all working under the assumption EK65 returns which is far from a guarantee.

If Karlsson leaves, I think they end up overpaying Pavelski which burns them down the road.

 

[LadyStanley]

Sharks' emerging star Timo Meier knew exactly what he wanted...

(Paywall) Kurz feature on Meier. Agent in town for 6-game homestand. Nothing imminent on extension.

 

[stator]

* Timo: at this rate, he's playing out of the 2-yr bridge. Might be smart to do as Poile does in Nashville and sign him for X years (that include 1 or 2 UFAs). Would $4.75M do it? Who are his comps? We have arb rights so could play hardball but he'll be the toughest case in awhile)

*We* don't have his arbitration rights, and never will. Neither does the Sharks either as I believe the CBA doesn't allow the club to choose arbitration if the player is ineligible.

 

[Barrie22]

*We* don't have his arbitration rights, and never will. Neither does the Sharks either as I believe the CBA doesn't allow the club to choose arbitration if the player is ineligible.

Why is meier never eligible for arbitration?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Why is meier never eligible for arbitration?

He's just making a semantics point, that's all.

 

[Barrie22]

He's just making a semantics point, that's all.

No i actually looked it up on capfriendly. And i can't find it next year.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

No i actually looked it up on capfriendly. And i can't find it next year.

Meier needs one more season before he is eligible for arbitration.

 

[Gilligans Island]

Meier needs one more season before he is eligible for arbitration.

Ah I see - so this offseason he has no arb rights and only recourse would be to sit out like Nylander? In any case, I still hope we can bridge him for 2 seasons. Tough call - we'll see how his season plays out.

 

[Barrie22]

I am not worried about meier. Yes if he comes back quickly and continues where he left off before the injury. It doesn't help. But this is not a player that has put up 2 or 3 60 point seasons before his rookie contract ended.

Its a 30 point and potentially a 60 point player in 3 years.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I figure we can make this the "2019-2020 Roster Discussion Thread" since the 2018-2019 roster discussion thread should be more geared to the current roster...

I was just looking over our cap situation, and we have quite a bit more flexibility than I realized. In fact, if Timo Meier will take a bridge at or below $5M, we can make room for one of Mark Stone, Artemi Panarin, or Matt Duchene.

TRADE:

Brenden Dillon to Winnipeg for 2nd round pick or prospect
Justin Braun to Toronto for 2nd round pick or prospect
Aaron Dell and Melker Karlsson to Calgary for 3rd round pick or prospect

SIGN:

Erik Karlsson - $92M/8Y ($11.5M/Y)
Timo Meier - $10M/2Y ($5M/Y)
Antti Suomela - $3M/2Y ($1.5M/Y)
Joakim Ryan - $4M/2Y ($2M/Y)
Kevin LaBanc - $5M/2Y ($2.5M/Y)
Rourke Chartier - $800K/1Y
Artemi Panarin - $70M/7Y ($10M/Y)

Panarin-Couture-Meier
Kane-Hertl-Chekhovich
Chmelevski-Suomela-LaBanc
Kotkov-True-Goodrow
Chartier

Vlasic-Karlsson
Simek-Burns
Joakim Ryan Merkley

Jones
Bibeau

This would leave us with a 19 man roster and $632K in cap space. Mark Stone for roughly the same price might be a bit more realistic due to the Erik Karlsson connection but Panarin is the guy I'd rather have. He is one of the elite wingers in the NHL right now.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I figure we can make this the "2019-2020 Roster Discussion Thread" since the 2018-2019 roster discussion thread should be more geared to the current roster...

I was just looking over our cap situation, and we have quite a bit more flexibility than I realized. In fact, if Timo Meier will take a bridge at or below $5M, we can make room for one of Mark Stone, Artemi Panarin, or Matt Duchene.

TRADE:

Brenden Dillon to Winnipeg for 2nd round pick or prospect
Justin Braun to Toronto for 2nd round pick or prospect
Aaron Dell and Melker Karlsson to Calgary for 3rd round pick or prospect

SIGN:

Erik Karlsson - $92M/8Y ($11.5M/Y)
Timo Meier - $10M/2Y ($5M/Y)
Antti Suomela - $3M/2Y ($1.5M/Y)
Joakim Ryan - $4M/2Y ($2M/Y)
Kevin LaBanc - $5M/2Y ($2.5M/Y)
Rourke Chartier - $800K/1Y
Artemi Panarin - $70M/7Y ($10M/Y)

Panarin-Couture-Meier
Kane-Hertl-Chekhovich
Chmelevski-Suomela-LaBanc
Kotkov-True-Goodrow
Chartier

Vlasic-Karlsson
Simek-Burns
Joakim Ryan Merkley

Jones
Bibeau

This would leave us with a 19 man roster and $632K in cap space. Mark Stone for roughly the same price might be a bit more realistic due to the Erik Karlsson connection but Panarin is the guy I'd rather have. He is one of the elite wingers in the NHL right now.

Much rather trade Vlassic than Dillon & Braun. Dillon is the one I prefer to keep over both at this point moving forward. That roster is young and will need someone other than Kane & Goodrow to stick up for them. Just looks too soft. Also I don't believe Jumbo is retiring after this season so need to allocate $1mil min for him. No way the team walks away from him. Playing 3rd line center he could potentially still be effective for another couple seasons with the right wingers.

You forgot Sorenson. No way are they letting him walk.

Love the idea of getting bread man though. If Pavs walks though I think they need a legit center like Duchene.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Much rather trade Vlassic than Dillon & Braun. Dillon is the one I prefer to keep over both at this point moving forward. That roster is young and will need someone other than Kane & Goodrow to stick up for them. Just looks too soft. Also I don't believe Jumbo is retiring after this season so need to allocate $1mil min for him. No way the team walks away from him. Playing 3rd line center he could potentially still be effective for another couple seasons with the right wingers.

You forgot Sorenson. No way are they letting him walk.

Love the idea of getting bread man though. If Pavs walks though I think they need a legit center like Duchene.

Vlasic has that full NMC though. I would also rather keep Dillon at this stage but idk. Regarding toughness, having Kane, Goodrow, and Alexander True should be enough to fill that role if necessary. It’s not like Pittsburgh or Chicago had any notable fighters in their regular lineup when they were winning Cups.

I think Jumbo is done after this year. Replace Alex True or Kotkov with him if not. Kotkov is probably not the right guy anyway.

Duchene, Stone, Panarin...all comparable. I just think Panarin is the best of the 3. Duchene plays center which is more valuable but I’m not sold on him as a legit #1C for the long term. Very inconsistent player who has suddenly caught fire in a contract year.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I figure we can make this the "2019-2020 Roster Discussion Thread" since the 2018-2019 roster discussion thread should be more geared to the current roster...

1) I suspect Panarin will get more.
2) I'm not sure Ryan and Suomela will be able to command that much considering the season either player is having.
3) There is definitely some risk slotting Chmelevski, Merkley and Kotkov(!) into the NHL lineup right away.

Lastly, at this point, Meier could really make a push for a much more lucrative contract. After all, what does Nylander have over Meier? Since December 2017 I'd say Meier has been the decidedly superior player.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Vlasic has that full NMC though. I would also rather keep Dillon at this stage but idk. Regarding toughness, having Kane, Goodrow, and Alexander True should be enough to fill that role if necessary. It’s not like Pittsburgh or Chicago had any notable fighters in their regular lineup when they were winning Cups.

I think Jumbo is done after this year. Replace Alex True or Kotkov with him if not. Kotkov is probably not the right guy anyway.

Duchene, Stone, Panarin...all comparable. I just think Panarin is the best of the 3. Duchene plays center which is more valuable but I’m not sold on him as a legit #1C for the long term. Very inconsistent player who has suddenly caught fire in a contract year.

What about Sorenson though? That changes your numbers...

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

1) I suspect Panarin will get more.
2) I'm not sure Ryan and Suomela will be able to command that much considering the season either player is having.
3) There is definitely some risk slotting Chmelevski, Merkley and Kotkov(!) into the NHL lineup right away.

Lastly, at this point, Meier could really make a push for a much more lucrative contract. After all, what does Nylander have over Meier? Since December 2017 I'd say Meier has been the decidedly superior player.

Nylander has 2 seasons at 60 points. Longer track record. I don't disagree with your point, but he won't win that conversation in negotiations with DW. He's not getting big money based on a single season at this level of play. Also, Meier doesn't strike me as the hold out type of player unless he is ridiculously undervalued.

 

[Hinterland]

Nylander has 2 seasons at 60 points. Longer track record. I don't disagree with your point, but he won't win that conversation in negotiations with DW. He's not getting big money based on a single season at this level of play. Also, Meier doesn't strike me as the hold out type of player unless he is ridiculously undervalued.

Nylander scored those 60 points as Auston Matthews' sidekick...these aren't very good numbers. Meier had mono and was played mainly on the 4th line without PP-time. Meier should get more than Nylander if he wants it to...not sure he's looking for that kind of trouble though...

 

[WTFetus]

Nylander scored those 60 points as Auston Matthews' sidekick...these aren't very good numbers. Meier had mono and was played mainly on the 4th line without PP-time. Meier should get more than Nylander if he wants it to...not sure he's looking for that kind of trouble though...

Meier is 2 seasons removed from mono, and that was with the Barracuda. He is not worth a 7m+ caphit yet unless we're buying a ton of UFA years.

 

[Hinterland]

Meier is 2 seasons removed from mono, and that was with the Barracuda. He is not worth a 7m+ caphit yet unless we're buying a ton of UFA years.

Mono isn't something that's over from one moment to the other and it broke out at a crucial moment when he was about to crack the Sharks. That set him back for months. I agree with the rest of your post since Nylander was greedy and is now overpaid. I don't think Meier would do anything like that. Just wanted to point out that he's a much better player than Nylander.

 

[WTFetus]

Mono isn't something that's over from one moment to the other and it broke out at a crucial moment when he was about to crack the Sharks. That set him back for months. I agree with the rest of your post since Nylander was greedy and is now overpaid. I don't think Meier would do anything like that. Just wanted to point out that he's a much better player than Nylander.

I'm just saying he's two seasons removed from mono, when it sounded like you were using it as an excuse for his low point totals last season.
His improvement this year is a mix of usage and better offensive IQ. Couture constantly notes in every Meier interview that the previous two seasons, he just shot the puck from anywhere but now he's picking his shots more.

 

[Bizz]

1. Erik Karlsson ($10M AAV, 7 years)
2. Timo Meier (4 years, between 4.5 and 5M)
3. Joonas Donskoi ($2.5M max. if he wants more let him walk)
4. Joe Pavelski ($7.5M, 3 years)
5. Kevin LaBanc ($2M max)
6. Antti Suomela ($1M max, hasn't proved himself at the NHL level to earn more)
7. Joe Thornton ($3.5-4M, 2 years)
8. Marcus Sorenson ($1.25-1.5M)
9. Joakim Ryan ($1.25-1.5M)
10. Tim Heed (wont resign unless PDB is fired, Heed does not like PDB)

No, Panarin is not worth 10M. He isn't even worth 8M. Let some other GM make that mistake.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Nylander scored those 60 points as Auston Matthews' sidekick...these aren't very good numbers. Meier had mono and was played mainly on the 4th line without PP-time. Meier should get more than Nylander if he wants it to...not sure he's looking for that kind of trouble though...

That's only because you have this misguided belief that Matthews is actually an elite playmaker when he's not. He's good but he's more of a shooter than a passer. But in any case, Nylander is not much of a comparable to Meier. Two 60 point seasons compared to 0 60 point seasons and on pace for an 85 point season. Meier's going to get paid but not like Nylander. Nylander has a more proven track record and that matters in a negotiation that has little in way of rights for the player. And honestly, it wouldn't have surprised me if the two sides wanted it to go down this way. They'd pay Nylander more this year to get him cheaper down the road when they need to save money for Matthews and Marner. Meier isn't going to get 7 mil out of DW based off of one damn good set of 29 games.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

1. Erik Karlsson ($10M AAV, 7 years)
2. Timo Meier (4 years, between 4.5 and 5M)
3. Joonas Donskoi ($2.5M max. if he wants more let him walk)
4. Joe Pavelski ($7.5M, 3 years)
5. Kevin LaBanc ($2M max)
6. Antti Suomela ($1M max, hasn't proved himself at the NHL level to earn more)
7. Joe Thornton ($3.5-4M, 2 years)
8. Marcus Sorenson ($1.25-1.5M)
9. Joakim Ryan ($1.25-1.5M)
10. Tim Heed (wont resign unless PDB is fired, Heed does not like PDB)

No, Panarin is not worth 10M. He isn't even worth 8M. Let some other GM make that mistake.

I don't see a good reason to sign Thornton to a 35+ contract. Stick to one year deals and give him easy bonuses and lower his cap hit. Let's the team do more. I'd expect Suomela to come in cheaper than that with like a two year deal that is a one-way contract. Same for Ryan. Donskoi will probably walk at that rate which I'd probably be okay with considering how his season is going thus far and the likelihood that we'll have wingers capable of filling the spot if given the opportunity. The way that Labanc is going though, I'd probably look for a one-for-one hockey trade because while he's a productive power play specialist, he's a detriment at evens more often than not.

My first priority this off-season is to find a trade to get Melker Karlsson off the team. Hopefully there's a team out there willing to take on his last year but if not buying him out is a viable alternative. A 666k cap hit the next two years is small enough to at least consider not trading a useful/valuable player with him to get rid of him but we'll see. Melker Karlsson should only be on the Sharks next season if practically every trade and free agent option fails to materialize which would be right next to impossible.

As a point related to the thread but not this post, the thing to figure out is how you want the blue line to look like next season. If we assume that Vlasic is untradeable and we re-sign Karlsson, do we want them playing together on a pairing or do we want them and Burns all anchoring their own pairing. That pretty much determines what you can do with Braun and Dillon. If they're anchoring their own pairings then you can trade both Braun and Dillon and try to get more help up front. If Vlasic and Karlsson are going to pair up then one I think has to be kept to avoid an inexperienced 3rd pairing.

 

[Hinterland]

That's only because you have this misguided belief that Matthews is actually an elite playmaker when he's not. He's good but he's more of a shooter than a passer. But in any case, Nylander is not much of a comparable to Meier. Two 60 point seasons compared to 0 60 point seasons and on pace for an 85 point season. Meier's going to get paid but not like Nylander. Nylander has a more proven track record and that matters in a negotiation that has little in way of rights for the player. And honestly, it wouldn't have surprised me if the two sides wanted it to go down this way. They'd pay Nylander more this year to get him cheaper down the road when they need to save money for Matthews and Marner. Meier isn't going to get 7 mil out of DW based off of one damn good set of 29 games.

Matthews isn't a typical shooter or playmaker...he's a solid allrounder with many strenghts but no weaknesses. A top5 Centerman already...at least. If you can't score more than 60 points on the wing of such a Center then you suck ass. No other way to put it. Again. Meier would probably score 100 or more if playing with Matthews. I mean even friggin Alex Burrows reached 67 playing with the Sedins. Also don't forget that Nylander is as much of a one way player as it gets. Zero defense, zero physicality, zero strength on the puck. Only points and giveaways.