2019 offseason - what will these FAs re-sign for?

[hohosaregood]

Lets put it this way. If that happens, people will never complain about Kane's contract ..

You know they'll be like "How can you give Kane $7m when he can barely score as much as old, slow Pavs"

 

[one2gamble]

as good as pavs hands are, I still walk. The league is getting nothing but faster and he simply isnt.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

as good as pavs hands are, I still walk. The league is getting nothing but faster and he simply isnt.

I don't think his speed is going to be the problem. His problem will likely be that as he gets older, he's going to be more likely to get injured since he always goes to the dirty areas. He's been slow for a while and still manages to score.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I don't think his speed is going to be the problem. His problem will likely be that as he gets older, he's going to be more likely to get injured since he always goes to the dirty areas. He's been slow for a while and still manages to score.

It is wild that since the start of the 2013-2014 season, no player has played more games than Pavelski.

 

[one2gamble]

I don't think his speed is going to be the problem. His problem will likely be that as he gets older, he's going to be more likely to get injured since he always goes to the dirty areas. He's been slow for a while and still manages to score.

I dont disagree with that but its not like he moves quickly into the dirty areas. If hes going to get hurt going there its going to be because someone finally breaks his hands

 

[NiWa]

This discussion is quite reasonable except for the suggestion to let Sörensen walk. Unless the agent moves him out of the market, you keep him, as he looks like a great future 3rd liner that can plug in further up the line up during injuries.

 

[Juxtaposer]

This discussion is quite reasonable except for the suggestion to let Sörensen walk. Unless the agent moves him out of the market, you keep him, as he looks like a great future 3rd liner that can plug in further up the line up during injuries.

The thing is, it’s always better to find the next Sorensen than it is to pay Sorensen more than $2M. Our scouting staff has proved that they can do that.

 

[matt trick]

The thing is, it’s always better to find the next Sorensen than it is to pay Sorensen more than $2M. Our scouting staff has proved that they can do that.

Unless of course, our think he's the next Donskoi, a top 6/7 forward at $2m per who raises his game in the playoffs.

I know you know this, but it's all about value/dollar. If the team thinks he's a decent gamble to replace Donskoi at half the price, it could be worth it. I also understand the delivered context was "ideal third liner, rather than a potential top 6 player"

 

[tiburon12]

It is wild that since the start of the 2013-2014 season, no player has played more games than Pavelski.

Is this including playoffs? has to be

The thing is, it’s always better to find the next Sorensen than it is to pay Sorensen more than $2M. Our scouting staff has proved that they can do that.

Especially considering Sorensen's age

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You know they'll be like "How can you give Kane $7m when he can barely score as much as old, slow Pavs"

What year will it be when Kane scores as much as Pavelski?

Is this including playoffs? has to be

Especially considering Sorensen's age

Those numbers are not including playoffs. They’re also from last night so I think Marleau just took the lead by playing tonight.

 

[Sysreq]

We are 100% signing Pavelski. IDK why people would imagine for a second we wouldn’t. I think Donskoi, Melker, Dell and Ryan are gonna be our cap casualties. Each of them can be replaced with younger, cheaper options.

I like the play of a lot of those guys, they are just overpaid at the price they would command. Dell is a very solid goalie - but I would rather have Pavelski than Dell. Donskoi is a good winger, but I don’t think he is a true top-6 player. It’s just the business.

 

[NiWa]

The thing is, it’s always better to find the next Sorensen than it is to pay Sorensen more than $2M. Our scouting staff has proved that they can do that.

So that, I do see.
But logically what's the scenario of that happening? I think it's likely that he'd land somewhere between 1 and 1.6 mil (a bit lower than Donskoi when he signed his 2nd contract with us), depending on his point total in regular season and role on the team come play off time.

The only way I see him exceeding that would be if he ends up scoring at 0.5 PPG or greater, which if he does he deserves more many and we happily pay him.
The main weakness (from a 3rd liner perspective) so far seems to be with needing space and attacking against compact defense as that limits his particular skill set.

Sorensen looks to be on pace for more than 30 points, in limited minutes. Surely, he will be looking for a modest payday or at least a better opportunity; I am sure many teams would like to gamble that he could break out with more minutes.

Overall, the trap with these discussions, which I have fallen into, is that it gets so biased by how the player is playing currently. Meier, Sorensen, and Pavelski are on fire so we want to keep them. Labanc and Donskoi are slumping so they become disposable.

This is spot on of course, and need to keep that in mind with Sörensen as he is currently playing well. Getting fed by Jumbo will certainly not hinder that.

However, I'd argue also that Meier & Sörensen so far are not only looking good on the score sheet but also both in advanced metrics and the eye test when it comes to defensive responsibility.
LaBanc (decision paralysis) & Pavs (speed) have been liabilities in that regard that have cost us games. There is risk teams gunning for the Stanley cup would be able to exploit these repeatedly.
To be fair they can also win us games and have done that.

I guess it's a big puzzle for all the pieces, and Doug will need to free up some slots for the next group of youngsters. A bundle deal, with Braun+ forward does seem the most likely, unless the injury bug bites us.
If we'll be able to retain EK65, I'd be in favor to move Vlasic instead of Braun given their salaries, but I think the terms on their contracts make that unlikely.

 

[NiWa]

We are 100% signing Pavelski. IDK why people would imagine for a second we wouldn’t. I think Donskoi, Melker, Dell and Ryan are gonna be our cap casualties. Each of them can be replaced with younger, cheaper options.

I like the play of a lot of those guys, they are just overpaid at the price they would command. Dell is a very solid goalie - but I would rather have Pavelski than Dell. Donskoi is a good winger, but I don’t think he is a true top-6 player. It’s just the business.

Melker is obvious, and I can follow on Donskoi and Dell (although I do disagree). But how come you see Ryan as a cap casualty? He seems destined to become a proven D signed at discount.

 

[Sysreq]

Melker is obvious, and I can follow on Donskoi and Dell (although I do disagree). But how come you see Ryan as a cap casualty? He seems destined to become a proven D signed at discount.

I could see that as well. I think he is probably worth over 2 mil a season, but don’t really think you can justify that if PDB is gonna keep playing him for like 7 minutes a game. Maybe the PDB hate is gonna force him to sign a show me deal in the 1.5 or less range. I could see that as well.

 

[LA Shark]

We do have a goalie that no one seems to like that could open up quite a bit of space

 

[matt trick]

We do have a goalie that no one seems to like that could open up quite a bit of space

I'd say the same with no sarcasm. With all of our core players having 3 team NTCs, I'd say a goalie who's been past on the depth chart would be the most likely to expand the number of teams he would waive for. Given that he's now #3, Vlasics probably next. I'd be surprised to see Kane, Burns, or Pavs waive at all. Hertl has no NTC, but we'd be crazy to trade him .

 

[Gilligans Island]

2019-20 Salary Cap $81.4-85.4m (Oct BOG preliminary)

I think you're too high. Players don't like escrow so probably won't bump the escalator as high as that. Think it'll be much closer to $81.5m.

It's only $800K difference between the 2 cap guesses. Given the range, I think $82.3M is a reasonable assumption at this point.

I could see that as well. I think he is probably worth over 2 mil a season, but don’t really think you can justify that if PDB is gonna keep playing him for like 7 minutes a game. Maybe the PDB hate is gonna force him to sign a show me deal in the 1.5 or less range. I could see that as well.

I don't see how Ryan gets over $2m. he isn't getting the TOI nor points to warrant that.

 

[LA Shark]

I'd say the same with no sarcasm. With all of our core players having 3 team NTCs, I'd say a goalie who's been past on the depth chart would be the most likely to expand the number of teams he would waive for. Given that he's now #3, Vlasics probably next. I'd be surprised to see Kane, Burns, or Pavs waive at all. Hertl has no NTC, but we'd be crazy to trade him .

Personally I'd be fine moving Jones and looking for a cheaper option to pair with Dell, but I just don't see it happening.

Karlsson, Pavs, Dell and a guy like Greiss is better than losing Karlsson or Pavs but keeping Jones imo.

 

[vatali]

I think the sharks move on from pavs and ek65 moves on from the sharks.

I expect pavs to get a term deal somewhere and the sharks only willing to commit to medium to high level dollars for 3 years. The sharks made their bed last summer (the jt pitch) which would have forced pavs out anyway, he’s just buying his time. And I think the reason the press is getting more vocal about no contract talks is because pavs or his agent are getting more vocal.

As for ek65, the sharks will have a competitive offer, but if you are him, you don’t want to play behind 88, and nothing you have seen so far makes you believe he is in front or on par with him. Erik goes back east for a boat load of term and dollars, and the sharks offseason consists of a 6 x 6 for timo and a trade to replace a second line center.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I dont disagree with that but its not like he moves quickly into the dirty areas. If hes going to get hurt going there its going to be because someone finally breaks his hands

A guy like him can easily have his back get hurt with all the cross-checks he takes in front.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I think the sharks move on from pavs and ek65 moves on from the sharks.

I expect pavs to get a term deal somewhere and the sharks only willing to commit to medium to high level dollars for 3 years. The sharks made their bed last summer (the jt pitch) which would have forced pavs out anyway, he’s just buying his time. And I think the reason the press is getting more vocal about no contract talks is because pavs or his agent are getting more vocal.

As for ek65, the sharks will have a competitive offer, but if you are him, you don’t want to play behind 88, and nothing you have seen so far makes you believe he is in front or on par with him. Erik goes back east for a boat load of term and dollars, and the sharks offseason consists of a 6 x 6 for timo and a trade to replace a second line center.

This doesn't make sense. EK65 has gotten more ice time than Burns and been used in all situations. EK65 can only get the 8th year from the Sharks which is a huge advantage. No one is able to give him more term than the Sharks.

Dude you think Timo is getting 6 per? that's just not realistic. Hertl didn't get that. Meier is getting either getting a bridge deal at 3.5 for 3 years or a longer term deal for 5. Their not backing up the brinks truck based on a couple seasons. Even if he scored 50 this year he is not getting long term money at even Kane's salary.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

We do have a goalie that no one seems to like that could open up quite a bit of space

Only scary part about this is that you never know if his replacement can find another level in the playoffs the way he seems to. Nabby had some great regular seasons only to falter in the playoffs. Best case is that Dell earns more regular season starts this year and Jones is healthy and rested for the playoffs.

 

[WSS11]

Like many of us, I've been wondering what our FAs will be re-signed for or if they'll be dealt at the TDL or in the offseason (applies to RFAs, mainly).

Here's my prioritized list w/ cap hit (AAV). I'm assuming the 2019-20 cap is $82.3M (~3.5% more than this season's cap) when guessing at their AAV.

UFA / RFA

1. Erik Karlsson ($11M AAV)
2. Timo Meier ($4.75M?? see comment below)
3. Joonas Donskoi ($3.25M AAV or trade him)
4. Joe Pavelski (toughest - all depends on if EK re-signs; see comment below)
5. Kevin LaBanc ($2M or trade him)
6. Antti Suomela ($1.4M)
7. Joe Thornton ($3.5M)
8. Marcus Sorenson ($1.25M)
9. Joakim Ryan ($1.25M)
10. Tim Heed ($750K or replacement at league min)

Comments:
* Obviously, the below all hinges on if EK re-signs. If he doesn't, there really won't be many tough calls for DW..
* Timo: at this rate, he's playing out of the 2-yr bridge. Might be smart to do as Poile does in Nashville and sign him for X years (that include 1 or 2 UFAs). Would $4.75M do it? Who are his comps? We have arb rights so could play hardball but he'll be the toughest case in awhile)
* Pavs: SUPER tough if EK re-signs. It's between him and Donskoi, I think, and Donskoi is cheaper and younger...
* Also, if Jumbo comes back, reasonable to assume he'll be cheaper but after everyone else, there's not a lot left and this assumes...
* Braun+Labanc are traded for a top 6 fwd (ideally, C) and that "new top 6 fwd" has to get paid, which means, even more likely that it'll come down to Pavs and Donskoi.

Anyhow - know it's way early and the TDL can change everything. And I know there's been talk in other threads but figured why not have a new thread for this coming offseason.

I could see Timo doing a 5 or 6 year deal at 4-4.25MM AAV then getting his big pay day after. No shot in hell Joe gets 3.5MM after this year and I’m on the side that I think Pavs walks unless he takes a discount. As PF mentioned, him getting the Holmstrom treatment on a nightly basis is going to wear on his body and his skating is a liability in the defensive and neutral zone as it is and will only get worse.

 

[OffSydes]

So this should be a no go now

 

[SjMilhouse]

So this should be a no go now

I thought the idea was to bring him in as a rental? He was always going to be way too expensive if we wanted to keep Karlsson.