Value of: 2019 Offer Sheets

[Seanaconda]

..and the Leafs could move Kadri, Marleau, Zaitsev, Kapanen... I think the situations are very similar.

Yeah I listed them both as most likely to be offersheeted. Do think tampas pieces are easier to move than marleau / zaitsev but they are both workable.

If dubas is dead set on not going over 9.5 or whatever tho that's a bit of a problem

 

[Fogelhund]

Yeah I listed them both as most likely to be offersheeted. Do think tampas pieces are easier to move than marleau / zaitsev but they are both workable.

If dubas is dead set on not going over 9.5 or whatever tho that's a bit of a problem

Marleau might not be too hard... it depends on what he wants. After July 1st, he isn't owed much real money, so he helps teams with lower caps.

Dubas needs to make trades, and some substantial ones this offseason. Either Kadri or Nylander need to be moved IMO, for a RHD..and if Marner's asking for more than we can pay, maybe he's the guy who goes for a RHD. This has to be wrapped up before teams can offersheet though. ... unless of course the Leafs went and signed Panarin or EK as UFA's with Marner's money, and left him hanging, if wind of an offer sheet comes in ...LOL That would be kind of funny... have Bread man or EK in the lineup, and four 1sts.... If only it could be drawn up like that.

 

[BatVader]

Yzerman offer sheeting Point would be funny.

 

[Romkey]

If someone offersheets Connor or Laine, you have to think the Jets consider it due to their cap (or lack thereof). If Dubas is dumb enough to let Marner get to July 1st, he deserves to pay out the ass or lose him.

 

[Perratrooper]

We last had an offer sheet 6 years ago. GMs don’t do them. Every year people get excited about them, but until proven otherwise they seem completely dead at this point. Something for fans to speculate about, media to hype, and GMs to be mildly concerned about, but nothing that serious. GMs seem far too scared of being blacklisted and for upsetting the apple cart for everyone of total team control of RFA contracts.

So, to answer your question...until proven otherwise, no teams and no players.

I'm not sure if the bolded is 100% factual, that was the last time an offer she was SIGNED, but that doesn't necessarily mean they haven't been sent out to the players. Overall I agree with your statement, but because we don't see who actually gets an offer sheet we have more room to speculate

 

[Lockin17]

I think there is a none writed rule with the GM's about not offering crazy money on RFA player

 

[Brodeur]

I think there is a none writed rule with the GM's about not offering crazy money on RFA player

I'd argue that it's not so much an unwritten rule but that offer sheets are difficult to make work based on the NHL's salary cap / compensatory pick structure. There's just a lot of boxes which need to be checked off:

1) Does it even make sense for the player to sign an offer sheet? Last summer, some folks thought Mark Stone was an offer sheet candidate. But when guys are close to free agency, it makes sense for most to keep their options open. So signing a long term offer sheet while giving the original team to match might not make sense. For a guy like Trouba who seems to want to play on the East Coast for family reasons, it wouldn't make sense for him to sign an offer sheet since Winnipeg could happily match.

2) Does a team have the cap space? If so, are they restricted by an internal budget? When the Nylander negotiations dragged on, many folks wondered why there hadn't been an offer sheet. But they seemed to be ignoring how there were maybe 10 teams who had the cap space to make an offer that would be attractive enough for Nylander to sign.



3) Does the team have the required draft picks? So last offseason, the Devils had plenty of cap space but had previously dealt their 2019 3rd round pick. That limited the range of offer sheet that the team could hypothetically offer. Obviously it didn't make a ton of sense to put out an offer sheet at 10.25 million and having to fork over four first round picks.

As it stands, eight teams already moved their 2020 2nds or 3rds. We'll probably see a bit more movement at this draft. Last year there were very few teams who had the cap space, draft picks, and motivation to put out an offer sheet.

 

[StreetHawk]

Marleau might not be too hard... it depends on what he wants. After July 1st, he isn't owed much real money, so he helps teams with lower caps.

Dubas needs to make trades, and some substantial ones this offseason. Either Kadri or Nylander need to be moved IMO, for a RHD..and if Marner's asking for more than we can pay, maybe he's the guy who goes for a RHD. This has to be wrapped up before teams can offersheet though. ... unless of course the Leafs went and signed Panarin or EK as UFA's with Marner's money, and left him hanging, if wind of an offer sheet comes in ...LOL That would be kind of funny... have Bread man or EK in the lineup, and four 1sts.... If only it could be drawn up like that.

Entirely up to Marleau given his nmc.

Limited option given that the California teams two are retooling and don’t have need of and old guy and you have SJ who have moved in from his him.

 

[justafan22]

I could see Kapanen, because Johnsson likely files for arb, making him ineligible to sign one.

 

[ole ole]

There is only one person on that list with any remote chance of being offer sheeted, Marner. Point will be re-signed by Tampa, Karlsson will be back in Vegas, and the rest will be resigned or in some cases traded away. Marner is the only one that will have a serious problem getting the contract he wants from his team, which will lead to offer sheets. Toronto has no way out of their Matthews mess without destroying their team.

Ya they really screwed up giving Matthews that contract while their best player is waiting on his.

 

[TheKingPin]

I think it happens. It’s not just the straight offer sheet. A team could offset sheet a player that they are trying to get in a trade but the other team is dragging their feet. GMs would be crazy to not go after some of these names.

 

[Tripod]

I'd argue that it's not so much an unwritten rule but that offer sheets are difficult to make work based on the NHL's salary cap / compensatory pick structure. There's just a lot of boxes which need to be checked off:

1) Does it even make sense for the player to sign an offer sheet? Last summer, some folks thought Mark Stone was an offer sheet candidate. But when guys are close to free agency, it makes sense for most to keep their options open. So signing a long term offer sheet while giving the original team to match might not make sense. For a guy like Trouba who seems to want to play on the East Coast for family reasons, it wouldn't make sense for him to sign an offer sheet since Winnipeg could happily match.

2) Does a team have the cap space? If so, are they restricted by an internal budget? When the Nylander negotiations dragged on, many folks wondered why there hadn't been an offer sheet. But they seemed to be ignoring how there were maybe 10 teams who had the cap space to make an offer that would be attractive enough for Nylander to sign.



3) Does the team have the required draft picks? So last offseason, the Devils had plenty of cap space but had previously dealt their 2019 3rd round pick. That limited the range of offer sheet that the team could hypothetically offer. Obviously it didn't make a ton of sense to put out an offer sheet at 10.25 million and having to fork over four first round picks.

As it stands, eight teams already moved their 2020 2nds or 3rds. We'll probably see a bit more movement at this draft. Last year there were very few teams who had the cap space, draft picks, and motivation to put out an offer sheet.

Just a reminder, that is last years compensation. It will go up again this year with the cap rising. It went up over $300,000 on the top end last year. So that "top end" could be very close to 10.5 for 4 1sts.

 

[Mersss]

..and the Leafs could move Kadri, Marleau, Zaitsev, Kapanen... I think the situations are very similar.

Gourde and Callahan are, at least, Good/decent NHL players...

Marleau won't waive
Zaitsev is a horrible d-man being paid WAY too much for WAY too long, Leafs would need to attach one of Sandin or Liljegren to him

Leavs Kadri to be able to let some salary go. But then again, who's goign to take n Kadri w/out sending some salary bacK?

 

[Seanaconda]

Gourde and Callahan are, at least, Good/decent NHL players...

Marleau won't waive
Zaitsev is a horrible d-man being paid WAY too much for WAY too long, Leafs would need to attach one of Sandin or Liljegren to him

Leavs Kadri to be able to let some salary go. But then again, who's goign to take n Kadri w/out sending some salary bacK?

Aves have 39 million in cap space or something stupid next year and could use a center for free id assume.

 

[Mersss]

Aves have 39 million in cap space or something stupid next year and could use a center for free id assume.

For free yes. But Leafs are trading from a position of weakness, therefore won't get fair price (like a 1st for example)

 

[Seanaconda]

For free yes. But Leafs are trading from a position of weakness, therefore won't get fair price (like a 1st for example)

The aves actually might be willing to trade something for him they could use a second line center , and the only Ufa one is duchene.

They do have makar and forth overall coming up this year tho so maybe Sakic is the gm that finally breaks out an offersheet for point after he signs rants .

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

The one thing to keep in mind that a lot of times people gloss over is that a player has to actually sign the offer sheet.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Lou should be the one who breaks the cease fire. A predatory offer sheet to Marner from the Islanders would be Corleone-esque. The Isles had a great season, theu have the picks, they have the cap room, and it gives their franchise player Barzal a fantastic linemate. Not to mention is would be the most gangster revenge on the history of this league.

Unfortunately giving up 4 first round picks in a cap league where talented players on cheap ELCs is the name of the game is not a good idea, so going to pass on that, as cool as it would be to stick to JTraitor's team.

 

[LucicAndChong]

37 Noteable UFAs and yet HFBoards only thinks the 3 Leafs will be offersheeted

 

[fasterthanlight]

I don't think players like signing them. They are like... a backstab almost. And then you have to go back to the locker room with the folks you just signed an offer sheet to get away from, now taking up more salary than you would have otherwise? TBH I think that's the biggest barrier --- the players, not the GMs.

 

[SML2]

Unfortunately giving up 4 first round picks in a cap league where talented players on cheap ELCs is the name of the game is not a good idea, so going to pass on that, as cool as it would be to stick to JTraitor's team.

I will qualify my statement by adding that I hate both teams. But the reason why it makes sense, to me, at least, is this. The Leafs stole JT. Lou worked for the Leafs. Even if you didn't actually want MM, an offer that is uncomfortable, but matchable is the chaos grenade you can lob into the Toronto foxhole that causes them alot of problems. The Media there is a sunbeam through a magnifying glass that will second guess then either way. Being that this game is chess, you make them match an offer now, it keeps them from keeping a guy 3 or 4 years from now. If there's one guy you give 4 firsts for right now, I think the conversation begins and ends at Mitch Marner. You have a good team right now. It's not four top 5 picks. It's four 15-25 picks. If you get him he's a great player. If you don't you've thrown the wedge in the Toronto organization that could topple the whole house of cards. That's a no lose in my opinion.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

I will qualify my statement by adding that I hate both teams. But the reason why it makes sense, to me, at least, is this. The Leafs stole JT. Lou worked for the Leafs. Even if you didn't actually want MM, an offer that is uncomfortable, but matchable is the chaos grenade you can lob into the Toronto foxhole that causes them alot of problems.

It doesn't really make sense to run a team based on revenge. It would be a nice story for a little bit, but any offer that would make Toronto balk at matching would be a huge offer. While Marner is a good player, he's not worth giving a huge offer to and losing 4 first round picks.

That's potentially 4 young, talented players who would have seasons worth of ELC and RFA years. You need those type of players to have a consistent winner.

 

[KevinRedkey]

You only offer sheet a player when a team undervalues them, and is cash strapped. Revenge is not and never will be a reason for offer sheets.

From this list, the only names I can see being somewhat realistic are Kapanen or Johnsson from Toronto.

Reasons being:
1 - They are not the Leafs #1 RFA concerns (Marner)
2 - GMs may believe either of these players could play a larger role on their team
3 - Leafs may not be in a position to match (Leafs likely want bridge deals for both)

If a GM thinks either of them is worth say... 4.000 x 5, then it's realistic to think the Leafs may not match. It's also not a "A-hole" move just to screw over the Leafs. It's legitimately valuing what one of those 2 can bring to another team, more than they would buried behind talent on the Leafs.

Outside of (one of) those two though - I just don't see it happening.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

If someone offersheets Connor or Laine, you have to think the Jets consider it due to their cap (or lack thereof). If Dubas is dumb enough to let Marner get to July 1st, he deserves to pay out the ass or lose him.

Why is Dubas (and it's Leaf organization) dumb with your silly July 1st deadline? Isn't Marner smart not to sign before July 1st and see if there are other options? It's just dumb to think that the Leafs can strong arm Marner before July 1st.
Fact, Marner has his time table also, which probably isn't the same as yours.

 

[DanM]

Gourde and Callahan are, at least, Good/decent NHL players...

Marleau won't waive
Zaitsev is a horrible d-man being paid WAY too much for WAY too long, Leafs would need to attach one of Sandin or Liljegren to him

Leavs Kadri to be able to let some salary go. But then again, who's goign to take n Kadri w/out sending some salary bacK?

LOL at the bolded

That is never happening, and actually Z was good down the stretch and great in the playoffs with Muzzin.

He is just not the D you want rushing up the ice, but he can be solid in his zone if need be.

But his deal was signed to quickly for sure.