Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Entry Draft Part II

[PKs Broken Stick]

Steve, you are doing amazing work and it is always interesting to read. I'm super excited about the idea of getting Byram, I would obviously take the first 2 picks without question, but not getting my hopes up and would not be disappointed in the least to "only" get Byram, because I think if what everything is said about Byram is true, and he reaches his potential, it would dramatically improve this team by shuffling people into positions they belong and allowing to trade some of our 2nd pairing guys for more help up front.

But, what I'm wondering is, how does the potential of Byram stack up against the potential of A. Larrson? I mean, forget absolutely everything since his first NHL game, I'm talking about what he was projected to be. If I remember correctly, it was pretty close to the way Byram is talked about, minus the compliments to his skating.

Don't want to start a debate about if A.L reached his potential or why he hasn't or bust or who, if anyone, screwed him up or is he doing exactly was expected of him. I'm simply talking time machine back to a couple days before that draft. Was he as highly talked about as Byram is now in your opinion?

Larsson was super overrated because he was playing in the SHL underage. People were saying he's super advanced for his age and playing in a men's league at a young age, it's hard to get points bla bla ba, stuff like that. So his offensive production was just on potential, and ifs.

There's a difference between questioning if a player gets a massive amount of points and wondering whether the skills would transfer and a player not getting many points and hoping it pans out once they figure it out (larsson, zacha). Byram falls in the 1st category. He's been lighting it up and now it's just up to him to be able to translate it to the NHL. Obviously we've been hyping the kid up, but it wouldn't be the first time if he just suddenly flamed out and completely busted for w/e reason. We can't predict the future. This is a risk you have to take with every prospect.

That being said, Byram has a lot of qualities that makes me believe that he will be successful in the NHL. First of all, let's look at Ryan Murphy. Dude was super power offense in juniors but didn't succeed in the NHL. Why? Because offense was all he knew. I'm going to admit that's about all I know about him from his junior days so I'll stop there. Let's look at Byram now. He isn't just offense. He contributes to the defensive side, and does it well. He doesn't shy away from physical contact and playing the rough game. On top of this, he has a great winning attitude and is a competer. Good traits to be a successful nhler.

Didn't mean to turn this into a mini-scouting report lesson lol but this is what I look at in a prospect:
1. Compete level / work ethic
2. Hockey IQ
3. Skating (the whole package, not just speed)
4. Less important but still important, how many points they are getting. It's nice to have qualities #1-3 but if they're not putting up points in juniors, it's not likely they're going to be that great in the NHL. But this only applies to 1st round prospects. Players going in the later rounds are usually late bloomers so you can't judge them based on their stats in their draft year.

All the other skills a player has is nice but to me, these are the core qualities for a prospect. Of course @StevenToddIves could give you a much better scouting lesson

TLDR, yes there's always that chance Byram busts, but same with any other prospect. I think with all the qualities Byram has, chances are higher than not of him being successful.

 

[Sleestak Nation]

They do!

I see some Scotty Nieds in Byram!

Including the same home town ... Cranbook, BC.

 

[OmNomNom]

Including the same home town ... Cranbook, BC.

but does he have an affable brother who will play on the ducks?

 

[OmNomNom]

REMINDER:

@StevenToddIves is willing to air the draft at his bar, Flight 151, in Manhattan. I'm thinking of going, so if anyone wants to join....

 

[Ripshot 43]

REMINDER:

@StevenToddIves is willing to air the draft at his bar, Flight 151, in Manhattan. I'm thinking of going, so if anyone wants to join....

Geez, someone is looking to get a few free drinks

 

[OmNomNom]

Geez, someone is looking to get a few free drinks

if we fall to 6th, i'll jump the bar

 

[HBK27]

The interview process would seem to be critical this season. The team shrinks will really earn their paychecks this year. I think the interview cemented Nico over Nolan for NJ and it can tell you a lot about a player. An optimist with a high compete level will go further on the same skill than a dour player or one that has a lower compete level. I think that may have been why they took McLeod over Chychrun or Brown. If all three players are similarly ranked take the one who both lives to play and works hard at it and is competitive by nature. Hopefully he’s a positive person and thus probably a good teammate as well.

The interview process will also be critical for the Devils and other teams to understand Podkolzin's intentions for playing in North America. If NJ were to take him, you'd have to think they are extremely confident in him coming over sooner than later.

Still, I hope it doesn't come down to that - would prefer Byram, Cozens and Turcotte if we are selecting top 5. Maybe Podkolzin if we land in the 6th spot (which we have a 15.2% chance of seeing if we remain in 29th).

 

[Jack Be Quick]

REMINDER:

@StevenToddIves is willing to air the draft at his bar, Flight 151, in Manhattan. I'm thinking of going, so if anyone wants to join....

Wait, he owns Flight 151?

 

[OmNomNom]

Wait, he owns Flight 151?

I think @StevenToddIves is just one of the bartenders actually, but he'll be there draft day

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Cool cool. I have a funny yet foul story of being hired and fired there roughly 11 minutes in to my first shift about 17 years ago.

Anyways, I'd be happy to attend if he's willing to do a draft lottery party there. Show our very own drafting sleuth some tipping love and all that.

I think @StevenToddIves is just one of the bartenders actually, but he'll be there draft day

 

[StevenToddIves]

Larsson way super overrated because he was playing in the SHL underage. People were saying he's super advanced for his age and playing in a men's league at a young age, it's hard to get points bla bla ba, stuff like that. So his offensive production was just on potential, and ifs.

There's a difference between questioning if a player gets a massive amount of points and wondering whether the skills would transfer and a player not getting many points and hoping it pans out once they figure it out (larsson, zacha). Byram falls in the 1st category. He's been lighting it up and now it's just up to him to be able to translate it to the NHL. Obviously we've been hyping the kid up, but it wouldn't be the first time if he just suddenly flamed out and completely busted for w/e reason. We can't predict the future. This is a risk you have to take with every prospect.

That being said, Byram has a lot of qualities that makes me believe that he will be successful in the NHL. First of all, let's look at Ryan Murphy. Dude was super power offense in juniors but didn't succeed in the NHL. Why? Because offense was all he knew. I'm going to admit that's about all I know about him from his junior days so I'll stop there. Let's look at Byram now. He isn't just offense. He contributes to the defensive side, and does it well. He doesn't shy away from physical contact and playing the rough game. On top of this, he has a great winning attitude and is a competer. Good traits to be a successful nhler.

Didn't mean to turn this into a mini-scouting report lesson lol but this is what I look at in a prospect:
1. Compete level / work ethic
2. Hockey IQ
3. Skating (the whole package, not just speed)
4. Less important but still important, how many points they are getting. It's nice to have qualities #1-3 but if they're not putting up points in juniors, it's not likely they're going to be that great in the NHL. But this only applies to 1st round prospects. Players going in the later rounds are usually late bloomers so you can't judge them based on their stats in their draft year.

All the other skills a player has is nice but to me, these are the core qualities for a prospect. Of course @StevenToddIves could give you a much better scouting lesson

TLDR, yes there's always that chance Byram busts, but same with any other prospect. I think with all the qualities Byram has, chances are higher than not of him being successful.

This is pretty much a perfect answer, so I don't have much to add. It is important to add that, though scouting hockey prospects has improved a great deal in the past 20 years, it is still, like any science, imperfect. There will still be busts taken early and great players found late in drafts.

If we were to look at the defensemen taken first in the draft since 2013, we would find this:

Superstar-type defensemen:
Dahlin (1st overall, 2018)
Jones (4th overall, 2013)

Very good defensemen:
Hanifin (5th overall, 2015)
Heiskanen (3rd overall, 2017)
Ekblad (1st overall, 2014)

Possible busts:
Juolevi (5th overall, 2016)

The unitary potential bust is Juolevi, who still has the upside of a NHL-er. It is somewhat interesting to note that Juolevi was not the universal, consensus best D in the 2016 draft, many writers/scouts (myself included) preferred Mikhail Sergachev.

If we were going to compare Bowen Byram to the players on this list in terms of tools, I would say athletically he would rank fourth best after Dahlin/Jones/Hanifin and before Heiskanen. Skill/hockey smarts wise, he is about even with Heiskanen but behind Dahlin and Jones. Where I would say Bowen ranks highest on this list is in terms of physicality (only rivaled by Ekblad) and compete level (certainly in the argument for top of the list).

So, can Byram bust? Of course -- anyone can. He can blow out his knee in rookie training camp. But devastating injury aside, his realistic talent floor is that of a very fast and physical second-pairing D who chips in 35-45 points per year. He's just too athletic and hard-working to fall below that. And his ceiling? Though it's not as high as Dahlin or Jones, Byram can certainly become a Norris-candidate who wows you every game with a hit or an end-to-end rush.

Every draft prospect comes with risk, but it's important to assess the possibility of those risks manifesting, and then to weigh that against potential upside. When doing this, there is no way to say anything about Byram except that he is an absolutely outstanding prospect for the NHL.

 

[StevenToddIves]

if we fall to 6th, i'll jump the bar

Haha, I warn you I've been bartending on 8th Avenue for 17 years, I'm pretty good in a scrap.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think @StevenToddIves is just one of the bartenders actually, but he'll be there draft day

I will be the dude behind the bar. The only thing I own is my shoes. Oh wait, they're on layaway.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Haha, I warn you I've been bartending on 8th Avenue for 17 years, I'm pretty good in a scrap.

I’m pretty sure he’d be jumping the bar to drink straight from the tap.

 

[OmNomNom]

I’m pretty sure he’d be jumping the bar to drink straight from the tap.

what he said, just lemme get my mouth on the tap and let it run

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Not sure this is the draft I want to be taking a defensmen, first because it is a weak crop, secons it rarely works out with these early picks, 3rd NJ has Smith and Davies jumping in next year. NJ needs impact offensive threats to aid Hall and Hischier.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Not sure this is the draft I want to be taking a defensmen, first because it is a weak crop, secons it rarely works out with these early picks, 3rd NJ has Smith and Davies jumping in next year. NJ needs impact offensive threats to aid Hall and Hischier.

Bryam would bring a completely different element to the team but I myself have gone back and forth on who I would like us to draft. I’m one of the 1st to say, a D consisting of Smith, Davies, Butcher and Vatanen is too small but the potential to add another Hischier type player to the mix and help pot some more goals may be too good to pass up. If we spent for a FA and added a young dynamic forward this draft, our top 6 would be looking good.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Cool cool. I have a funny yet foul story of being hired and fired there roughly 11 minutes in to my first shift about 17 years ago.

Anyways, I'd be happy to attend if he's willing to do a draft lottery party there. Show our very own drafting sleuth some tipping love and all that.

You gunna just throw that out there with out the actual story?

 

[Missionhockey]

Not sure this is the draft I want to be taking a defensmen, first because it is a weak crop, secons it rarely works out with these early picks, 3rd NJ has Smith and Davies jumping in next year. NJ needs impact offensive threats to aid Hall and Hischier.

I think the fact that the Devils signed Davies, plus Smith waiting in the wings, kind of softens the blow for defense immediately. I realize that you should draft for need, but if you did ever do that, Byram would be less of a priority than he was before with those two's future more assured.

...so anyhow, I'm ready for people to tell me more good things about Turcotte.

 

[Brodeur]

Forgive me if it was already mentioned, but if the Kings/Devils ended up with identical records, the first tie break would be head-to-head (we split the two games). The next tie breaker is goal differential. Currently the Kings would have the "edge" with a -61 to the Devils -54.

Also had a good laugh with my buddy. Both of us are never 100% sure if we're spelling Kaapo Kakko correctly and I always find myself habitually typing "Bryan Bowen" instead of Bowen Byram. At least for Kakko, I remember it as "AK" in that there's two A's in the first name, two K's in his last name.

 

[My3Sons]

The interview process will also be critical for the Devils and other teams to understand Podkolzin's intentions for playing in North America. If NJ were to take him, you'd have to think they are extremely confident in him coming over sooner than later.

Still, I hope it doesn't come down to that - would prefer Byram, Cozens and Turcotte if we are selecting top 5. Maybe Podkolzin if we land in the 6th spot (which we have a 15.2% chance of seeing if we remain in 29th).[/QUOTE

If he is truly BPA then we should want him but opinions will certainly differ. Hopefully NJ lands 1 or 2 and none of this is an issue. Can you imagine Bratt Nico and Kakko?

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Not sure this is the draft I want to be taking a defensmen, first because it is a weak crop, secons it rarely works out with these early picks, 3rd NJ has Smith and Davies jumping in next year. NJ needs impact offensive threats to aid Hall and Hischier.

I agree but the main reason why I'm so excited about Byram on the devils specifically and not just as a prospect is because he has size and physicality on top of the steady defense and elite offense. He brings an element that the devils haven't had since uh....ever? Can't really remember. I guess you can say scott stevens but he was 100% defensive when coming to the devils. Of course, like it's been said several times now that he can bust but yea.

As for the forwards, for me only turcotte is in the same level as Byram who I'd consider if we were at 3 and everyone (except hughes and kakko) were available.

 

[Nubmer6]

I guess you can say scott stevens but he was 100% defensive when coming to the devils.

Umm... Stevens led the team in scoring at least one of his years here.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Umm... Stevens led the team in scoring at least one of his years here.

You are correct. When they were irrelevant. Haha my bad. I forgot about that. I did remember stevens was super offensive before coming to the devils but i didn't remember that part too.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Not sure this is the draft I want to be taking a defensmen, first because it is a weak crop, secons it rarely works out with these early picks, 3rd NJ has Smith and Davies jumping in next year. NJ needs impact offensive threats to aid Hall and Hischier.

Byram has the upside of a 20+ goal threat from the blueline, which is pretty rare. And the "weak crop" argument for 2019 draft-eligible defensemen, in my opinion, starts after Byram, who would be an elite defenseman in pretty much any draft class of any year.

If the Devils win the first or second pick in the lottery, none of this will be an issue, of course. Hughes will be the #1 pick and Kakko will be the #2 pick, and there's not much intrigue there, only cause for celebration if you get them. The intrigue is in the other likely Devils draft positions, #3, #4 or #5.

Byram absolutely must be considered a prime Devils target in those spots. He not only combines qualities which the Devils brass of Shero and Castron are building around (high-end skating, hockey IQ, compete level) but adds qualities which the Devils sorely lack on D throughout their organization (strength and physicality on blueline, shut-down defensive upside, swagger).

There are many forwards whom we have highlighted on these threads as players the Devils will also be looking at closely. Dylan Cozens, like Byram, combines qualities the Devils look for with qualities the Devils sorely need in a fashion quite similar to Byram, but at C/RW. Alex Turcotte has the greatest combination of skating/hockey IQ/compete level in the entire draft and is already an accomplished two-way center at an age when most high-scoring pivots still need to learn the defensive game. Kirby Dach, Vasili Podkolzin, Trevor Zegras and Peyton Krebs are all possibilities as well.

If you check out my draft-rankings on these threads, Byram is my #3 prospect overall in the draft. But I also have repeated at length that #3 through #9 is a pretty tightly ranked group. If the player I have ranked #6 (Cozens) were to be taken by the Devils at #3 overall, I would be thrilled. In most years, this would not be the case.