Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Entry Draft Part II

[Unknown Caller]

I am starting to think winning 1 or 2 would immensely help the overall wellbeing of our fan base. Between different scouts and fans favorites there will be some serious debates/arguments on who should be taken if the Devils pick 3-6. Which will get progressively worse until the pick is made in two months.

In fairness, it’s very likely Podkolzin at 3. Even McKenzie stated that it’s essentially a big 3 now and Podkolzin is almost a unanimous pick for #3. It gets interesting from 4-6 between Dach, Cozens and Byram. I know the groupthink on this board has 90% of the posters here salivating over Byram, but there’s a very strong chance he isn’t the guy even if he’s on the board when we pick.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Steve, you are doing amazing work and it is always interesting to read. I'm super excited about the idea of getting Byram, I would obviously take the first 2 picks without question, but not getting my hopes up and would not be disappointed in the least to "only" get Byram, because I think if what everything is said about Byram is true, and he reaches his potential, it would dramatically improve this team by shuffling people into positions they belong and allowing to trade some of our 2nd pairing guys for more help up front.

But, what I'm wondering is, how does the potential of Byram stack up against the potential of A. Larrson? I mean, forget absolutely everything since his first NHL game, I'm talking about what he was projected to be. If I remember correctly, it was pretty close to the way Byram is talked about, minus the compliments to his skating.

Don't want to start a debate about if A.L reached his potential or why he hasn't or bust or who, if anyone, screwed him up or is he doing exactly was expected of him. I'm simply talking time machine back to a couple days before that draft. Was he as highly talked about as Byram is now in your opinion?

 

[Cult of Hynes]

In fairness, it’s very likely Podkolzin at 3. Even McKenzie stated that it’s essentially a big 3 now and Podkolzin is almost a unanimous pick for #3. It gets interesting from 4-6 between Dach, Cozens and Byram. I know the groupthink on this board has 90% of the posters here salivating over Byram, but there’s a very strong chance he isn’t the guy even if he’s on the board when we pick.

I'd stay far away from Podkolzin regardless of his skill. He might not come to NA for a while, making the pick worthless, or at least on par with picking Byram.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Steve, you are doing amazing work and it is always interesting to read. I'm super excited about the idea of getting Byram, I would obviously take the first 2 picks without question, but not getting my hopes up and would not be disappointed in the least to "only" get Byram, because I think if what everything is said about Byram is true, and he reaches his potential, it would dramatically improve this team by shuffling people into positions they belong and allowing to trade some of our 2nd pairing guys for more help up front.

But, what I'm wondering is, how does the potential of Byram stack up against the potential of A. Larrson? I mean, forget absolutely everything since his first NHL game, I'm talking about what he was projected to be. If I remember correctly, it was pretty close to the way Byram is talked about, minus the compliments to his skating.

Don't want to start a debate about if A.L reached his potential or why he hasn't or bust or who, if anyone, screwed him up or is he doing exactly was expected of him. I'm simply talking time machine back to a couple days before that draft. Was he as highly talked about as Byram is now in your opinion?

Well I know they're very different leagues, but I don't think Larsson was ever as productive offensively as a prospect as Byram has been.

 

[glenwo2]

Though it's tough to root for a tank, today was a good day for the Devils. There is now only a 15% chance of drafting lower than 5th.

As annoying as it was to not be able to play spoiler with the Canes, there's always this silver lining to look at.


BTW, at least they clinched on THEIR home ice and not ours. THAT would've been infuriating.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Locked in a top 6 pick at worst.

Hughes
Kakko
Bryam
Turcotte
Cozens

Is my personal top 5. So hyped, haven’t decided on number 6.

Your top 4 is the same as mine. I just really hope we end up with a top 4 pick.

I am starting to think winning 1 or 2 would immensely help the overall wellbeing of our fan base. Between different scouts and fans favorites there will be some serious debates/arguments on who should be taken if the Devils pick 3-6. Which will get progressively worse until the pick is made in two months.

Haha I agree with this. Although it seems to me that the majority of fans have Byram as their #3. The real conversation gets going at number 4.

In fairness, it’s very likely Podkolzin at 3. Even McKenzie stated that it’s essentially a big 3 now and Podkolzin is almost a unanimous pick for #3. It gets interesting from 4-6 between Dach, Cozens and Byram. I know the groupthink on this board has 90% of the posters here salivating over Byram, but there’s a very strong chance he isn’t the guy even if he’s on the board when we pick.

The consensus was that Puljujarvi was going 3rd overall. But Columbus didn't agree and went with their gut. I hope the Devils would select Byram over Podkolzin

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Steve, you are doing amazing work and it is always interesting to read. I'm super excited about the idea of getting Byram, I would obviously take the first 2 picks without question, but not getting my hopes up and would not be disappointed in the least to "only" get Byram, because I think if what everything is said about Byram is true, and he reaches his potential, it would dramatically improve this team by shuffling people into positions they belong and allowing to trade some of our 2nd pairing guys for more help up front.

But, what I'm wondering is, how does the potential of Byram stack up against the potential of A. Larrson? I mean, forget absolutely everything since his first NHL game, I'm talking about what he was projected to be. If I remember correctly, it was pretty close to the way Byram is talked about, minus the compliments to his skating.

Don't want to start a debate about if A.L reached his potential or why he hasn't or bust or who, if anyone, screwed him up or is he doing exactly was expected of him. I'm simply talking time machine back to a couple days before that draft. Was he as highly talked about as Byram is now in your opinion?

If Larsson was prospect in this draft in 2019 with the different style of play for D men in today's NHL he would be projected as a late first/early second. I'm a Larsson fan but his skating was never great, he wasn't smooth with the puck and his offense left a lot to be desired. He was billed as a shutdown type of D with limited offensive skills, which don't usually get drafted in the top 15-20 today because premier D need to have forward like offensive skills.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I see the draft like this:

Hughes>Kakko>>Byram>>>>>>Turcotte>>Podkolzin/Cozens>Dach/Zegras

 

[TrufleShufle]

As annoying as it was to not be able to play spoiler with the Canes, there's always this silver lining to look at.


BTW, at least they clinched on THEIR home ice and not ours. THAT would've been infuriating.

If you want to break it down further, its basically a 50/50 split between picking 1-4/5-6. Not a bad coin flip at all, with heads being, "amazing and team changing" and tails being "really good and much needed."

Edit, quoted wrong post, but doesn't really matter.

 

[Call Me Al]

He was billed as a shutdown type of D with limited offensive skills

this isn't accurate to my recollection - he was billed as having great breakout/passing ability and there weren't nearly as many knocks on his skating as their should have been. he was consensus best "all around" D man in the draft with virtually no argument

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

this isn't accurate to my recollection - he was billed as having great breakout/passing ability and there weren't nearly as many knocks on his skating as their should have been. he was consensus best "all around" D man in the draft with virtually no argument

breakout passes aren't offensive skills really. His offensive ceiling was limited, not saying he was poor offensively but he wasn't great offensively as a prospect.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

In fairness, it’s very likely Podkolzin at 3. Even McKenzie stated that it’s essentially a big 3 now and Podkolzin is almost a unanimous pick for #3. It gets interesting from 4-6 between Dach, Cozens and Byram. I know the groupthink on this board has 90% of the posters here salivating over Byram, but there’s a very strong chance he isn’t the guy even if he’s on the board when we pick.

The Draft Analyst | 2019 Draft Profile: LW Vasili Podkolzin

I kinda wrote him off mentally because of the concerns about him coming over to North America (don’t know if there’s any validity), but he sounds like a pretty awesome player. Doesn’t fit the typical “lazy Russian” stereotype either.

 

[NJ07102]

The Draft Analyst | 2019 Draft Profile: LW Vasili Podkolzin

I kinda wrote him off mentally because of the concerns about him coming over to North America (don’t know if there’s any validity), but he sounds like a pretty awesome player. Doesn’t fit the typical “lazy Russian” stereotype either.

That is all nice to read, but I see it a bit as the Nico vs Nolan draft. As long as there is not a HUGE difference in skill, it is not smart to take the riskier pick. In Nolan's case, for me his injuries were what made him a riskier pick.
And now with Podkolzin, there is the risk that he might not want to come over to play for probably 3 years or so. Honestly, we need a guy that wants to play for us the night we draft him. And even if that guy is not ready and goes back to the WHL or to college or wherever until he is 100 percent NHL-ready, I still have a better feeling. From what I read Podkolzin is not way better than, say, Byram or Turcotte or Cozens. Which is why I would much rather go with any one of those three instead.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

The Draft Analyst | 2019 Draft Profile: LW Vasili Podkolzin

I kinda wrote him off mentally because of the concerns about him coming over to North America (don’t know if there’s any validity), but he sounds like a pretty awesome player. Doesn’t fit the typical “lazy Russian” stereotype either.

Yeah, in my post above, I have him neck and neck with Cozens for 5th/6th in my Devils wants rankings. He was at about 8/9 a few weeks ago for me. The more I've seen the more I've liked. He could pass Turcotte on my list by the time June comes around.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

If there's one thing I know, its that I trust Devils management and scouting.

2015 was the last draft I was truly disappointed. I REALLY wanted Barzal. When they took Zacha instead I was furious.

2016, I wanted Keller badly. When he was off the board and we were on the clock, I was happy we traded down and gained another draft pick. I didn't want Brown. I was content with the McLeod pick because there was no other player I truly loved. I wasn't high on McAvoy or Chychrun.

2017, I was Nolan Patrick the day we won the lottery, but as I watched more video and the draft came closer, I was Nico all the way. Very very glad with the pick.

2018, as soon as we were on the clock and Ty Smith was still available, I was just saying outloud Ty Smith Ty Smith Ty Smith Ty Smith. Ecstatic when they took him.

2019, I can honestly say I am confident I will be happy with whoever we select. Only way I won't be happy is if we get 3rd, and we don't select Byram. I want Bryam BADLY. Obviously 1 I want Hughes and 2 I want Kakko. 4 5 or 6, I want Podkolzin or Turcotte or Cozens. Don't really care who as of right now. That might change come June.

One thing is for sure, if we land a top 2 pick, I will be jumping around for hours and won't be able to sleep Tuesday night. If we land 3rd overall, I will pray that scouting has Byram at 3rd just like I do. I love Byram. The only way to get a franchise defenseman is through the draft, and Byram can certainly be a franchise cornerstone for 12+ years.

 

[Triumph]

breakout passes aren't offensive skills really. His offensive ceiling was limited, not saying he was poor offensively but he wasn't great offensively as a prospect.

I don't want this thread to get into relitigating past drafts, but Larsson as a young 17 year old in the SEL put up 17 points in 49 games, which is almost unheard of, and when he came to the NHL he was immediately put on the power play. He just never developed offensively. I agree that I think he would be drafted later, and part of why I'm wary of Byram high is all the misses on D at the top of the draft - it's just so much easier to evaluate forwards at this age.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I don't want this thread to get into relitigating past drafts, but Larsson as a young 17 year old in the SEL put up 17 points in 49 games, which is almost unheard of, and when he came to the NHL he was immediately put on the power play. He just never developed offensively. I agree that I think he would be drafted later, and part of why I'm wary of Byram high is all the misses on D at the top of the draft - it's just so much easier to evaluate forwards at this age.

I don't think the Devils really developed Larsson the right way. He never should've been in the NHL in the 2011-12 season anyway.

and In regard to the bolded, Hedman and Doughty say hello

 

[MartyOwns]

The only way to get a franchise defenseman is through the draft, and Byram can certainly be a franchise cornerstone for 12+ years.

yeah that’s key, i’ve said it a few times. that’s ultimately what tips the scale in favor of byram at #3 for me. if he also happens to be the BPA at 3 then great, but the cost of acquiring a true top pairing defenseman by any other means than the draft has to be considered

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

I don't want this thread to get into relitigating past drafts, but Larsson as a young 17 year old in the SEL put up 17 points in 49 games, which is almost unheard of, and when he came to the NHL he was immediately put on the power play. He just never developed offensively. I agree that I think he would be drafted later, and part of why I'm wary of Byram high is all the misses on D at the top of the draft - it's just so much easier to evaluate forwards at this age.

He also had 9 points in his draft year. Idk maybe its just looking at his prospect tape now vs the kids that get drafted first round today and seeing his average skating and decent hands at best leaves me to believe he would be drafted significantly later.

Also look at the top D taken in recent years, not a lot of misses outside of Juolevi who maybe would have been in the NHL this year without that injury.

 

[severian]

One thing is for sure, if we land a top 2 pick, I will be jumping around for hours and won't be able to sleep Tuesday night. If we land 3rd overall, I will pray that scouting has Byram at 3rd just like I do. I love Byram. The only way to get a franchise defenseman is through the draft, and Byram can certainly be a franchise cornerstone for 12+ years.

Other than Craig Wolanin, the Devils have an excellent track record drafting defensemen 3rd overall.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Other than Craig Wolanin, the Devils have an excellent track record drafting defensemen 3rd overall.

They do!

I see some Scotty Nieds in Byram!

 

[Cheddabombs]

The one thing that holds Podkolzin back, I guess two, is his position and when/if he'll come to NA. The latter I'm sure out scouting team and management has a decent grasp on now and will get a much better picture of that at the Combine.

But as STI has said a ton, we have bigger gaps to fill. Now, is the talent disparity between him and his peers a big enough gap to choose him regardless of that? I think aside from Byram, yes it is. I think he's sort of a lesser Kakko, just an absolute beast in a lot of aspects of the game plus he has an amazing work ethic/motor. I'd have zero problem with him at 3 and would almost implore we took him at 4-5, but would definitely understand choosing others like Turcotte.

 

[Emperoreddy]

The Draft Analyst | 2019 Draft Profile: LW Vasili Podkolzin

I kinda wrote him off mentally because of the concerns about him coming over to North America (don’t know if there’s any validity), but he sounds like a pretty awesome player. Doesn’t fit the typical “lazy Russian” stereotype either.

How much hockey has he even played this summer? All his big production seems to come from tournament play because his club production is extremely limited.

 

[My3Sons]

The interview process would seem to be critical this season. The team shrinks will really earn their paychecks this year. I think the interview cemented Nico over Nolan for NJ and it can tell you a lot about a player. An optimist with a high compete level will go further on the same skill than a dour player or one that has a lower compete level. I think that may have been why they took McLeod over Chychrun or Brown. If all three players are similarly ranked take the one who both lives to play and works hard at it and is competitive by nature. Hopefully he’s a positive person and thus probably a good teammate as well.

 

[Triumph]

I don't think the Devils really developed Larsson the right way. He never should've been in the NHL in the 2011-12 season anyway.

and In regard to the bolded, Hedman and Doughty say hello

Larsson was an average defenseman in 2011-12. He never should've been on the power play but he was an NHL quality player.

Did I say that every high pick on a defenseman is a miss? Absolutely not; I didn't say that. The ratio of misses is higher for defenseman than forwards.