Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Draft tracker

[Novacain]

I like us trading up for a goalie very few know anything about, especially a Russian. He might not ever play a minute here obviously, but all you are doing is banking that he might be better then whoever is there in the 7th next year. It’s a lottery ticket but maybe someone had the inside word to keep an eye out for the kid.

Michel is probably just a guy. Still, would be fun having a Mr. Irrelevant to keep tabs on.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

There was that story about how Armstrong went to Russia right when the Blues turned their season around, thinking he needed to scout some top players (presumably Podkolzin). Maybe he saw Zherenko while he was there?

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Surprised we didn’t draft a goalie with that last pick.

 

[simon IC]

Not a bad draft, considering what we little we had to work with. IMO, there were no poor choices as opposed to previous drafts. Still reading up on our selections. I can't find anything on Zherenko!

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Here are some highlights of Zherenko (watch it on mute, the music is awful).



He seems... very not good here.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I think Colorado, Minnesota, Vegas, and Carolina had by far the best drafts of the weekend. The first three - and especially the first two - aren’t great news for us. Winnipeg and Nashville made some picks I liked a lot too.

 

[execwrite1]

I think Colorado, Minnesota, Vegas, and Carolina had by far the best drafts of the weekend. The first three - and especially the first two - aren’t great news for us. Winnipeg and Nashville made some picks I liked a lot too.

I have concerns that Colorado is really loading up.

Let's hope they don't have a Stanley Cup goaltender.

 

[simon IC]

Here are some highlights of Zherenko (watch it on mute, the music is awful).



He seems... very not good here.

Interesting. Thanks for finding and posting this!

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Swapped our 2020 7th for Toronto’s this year. Sounds like we now have two clean-up attempts here now

Maybe this is pre-emptive “future considerations”.

 

[stl76]

The more I read about Keean Washkurak the more I like the pick.

Voted "Hardest Working Player" in the OHL coach's poll. Described in some scouting reports as: feisty, fearless, always moving his feet, strong in the defensive zone, good PKer, etc...sounds like a perfect bottom 6 player. A bit undersized, but if he can add some strength and improve his scoring touch, he could be a really good fit for the Blues.

EDIT: little write up From @Brock

Keean Washkurak - Forward - Mississauga Steelheads
Really likeable player and a fan favourite in Mississauga because of his non stop motor. Measures in at only 5'10, but Washkurak is one of the toughest kids in the OHL and plays way bigger than his size. He does not back down from any challenge. Washkurak is a terrific forechecker, who can use his speed to cause havoc in puck retrieval scenarios. As such, he's a fantastic penalty killer, which was on full display at the U18's, where he suited up for Canada in a depth role. I love his effort level in all three zones. He's the type of kid who really is hungry for the puck in the sense that if his line turns it over, he will battle to get it back as soon as possible. But it's important to not undervalue his offensive abilities either. Washkurak is a great playmaker who can use his speed to push the pace in transition, or he can work down low with great vision from behind the net. He also has good hands that allow him to finish off the plays in tight after he crashes the net. Washkurak is just a very well rounded, high energy player. That said, I don't think the upside is extremely high, but he could be a very valuable 3rd/4th line player who can provide your lineup with a lot of versatility.

OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Part 3: 30-11

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

The more I read about Keean Washkurak the more I like the pick.

Voted "Hardest Working Player" in the OHL coach's poll. Described in some scouting reports as: feisty, fearless, always moving his feet, strong in the defensive zone, good PKer, etc...sounds like a perfect bottom 6 player. A bit undersized, but if he can add some strength and improve his scoring touch, he could be a really good fit for the Blues.

EDIT: little write up From @Brock


OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Part 3: 30-11

Another thing he has going for him: he doesn’t turn 18 until mid-August this year. He’s *very* young, which bodes well for his development. He could still grow some, and his skills have a longer runway to catch up to some guys who went higher. Future 100-pointer in the OHL? I don’t see it, but he can carve out a nice career for himself if he wants it (and it certainly seems like he does).

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Here’s what Scott Wheeler of The Athletic had to say about Alexandrov:

Nikita Alexandrov is one of my favourites. If you’ve read my draft coverage, you already know this. He finished at No. 32 on my board. He’s just darn good. Electric offensively sometimes, even. He was one of the only available players with true second-line upside.... Alexandrov is the real get here though.

 

[Blues0307]

Just watching YouTube videos of Alexandrov, what sticks out is he looks like a perfect fit for how Chief gets this team to play. He has a nose for the net, will clean up rebounds, deflect pucks, seems smart and competitive, and he's definitely skilled. I guess my chief concern is I don't understand why he didn't have more points than he did. I'd have expected him to be well over a ppg player based on his skill set.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Just watching YouTube videos of Alexandrov, what sticks out is he looks like a perfect fit for how Chief gets this team to play. He has a nose for the net, will clean up rebounds, deflect pucks, seems smart and competitive, and he's definitely skilled. I guess my chief concern is I don't understand why he didn't have more points than he did. I'd have expected him to be well over a ppg player based on his skill set.

I think I read the team he’s on isn’t very good. Could be wrong.

 

[simon IC]

The more I read about Keean Washkurak the more I like the pick.

Voted "Hardest Working Player" in the OHL coach's poll. Described in some scouting reports as: feisty, fearless, always moving his feet, strong in the defensive zone, good PKer, etc...sounds like a perfect bottom 6 player. A bit undersized, but if he can add some strength and improve his scoring touch, he could be a really good fit for the Blues.

EDIT: little write up From @Brock


OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Part 3: 30-11

Good read! I really like this pick. I'm not worried about his size.. Blais and Parayko grew a lot after they were drafted. Even if he remains undersized, it really isn't an issue for a forward.

 

[Zamadoo]

I wonder if they're targeting college FA defenseman, having gone F and G in the draft (and no collegiate players).

Reinke comes to mind as someone who didn't fit the profile as a draftee, but who we picked out as someone who could make it.

To me, defense seems like the position that takes more time to develop and (compared to F) might be more translatable to a pro game, at least from a scouting/development standpoint).

It just seems as if noticable skill gets drafted (more necessary at F), and intangible/IQ/defense aspects (more necessary at D) might slip through the cracks.

 

[tfriede2]

Alexandrov sounds like the Barbashev we saw this season - two way player, tenacious, can chip in offensively. I’ll take that, but would love if he can become more of a 40-50 point guy.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

The Blues took the biggest homerun swing with their draft picks, according to Manny Elk’s ratings / translation scores. Our players have a relatively low chance of making it, but a relatively high likelihood of having an impact if they do. For those advocating for high risk / high reward players: this draft was for you

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

The Blues took the biggest homerun swing with their draft picks, according to Manny Elk’s ratings / translation scores. Our players have a relatively low chance of making it, but a relatively high likelihood of having an impact if they do. For those advocating for high risk / high reward players: this draft was for you

I like that philosophy at this stage of the team’s contender status. But how on earth do you quantify this?

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I like that philosophy at this stage of the team’s contender status. But how on earth do you quantify this?

It’s based on past results. We have years and years of data of players from all sorts of leagues, and we know which players have had success at the NHL level, so you can kind of reverse engineer the likelihood of success for any given player using a model that can generate probabilities.

For players at X age, playing in Y league, on teams with Z performance, adjusting for era (I.e. how all other players in a given cohort do) and games played, you can generate a probability of making the NHL, and how they might perform if they make it. I don’t know the full range of inner workings in the model, but based on the back-end spreadsheets I’ve seen from Manny, it’s pretty thorough. Not perfect, not infallible, but pretty thorough, and more or less on track with what tracks with reality year-to-year. For example, his model called Sundqvist’s breakout several years ago.

My one criticism of the model is that it is almost completely agnostic when it comes to previous year performances, or “extenuating circumstances.” That can result in big swings in scores year-over-year for a given player. For example: Nolan Foote overperforms for his age group in his age 15 and 16 years, breaks his wrist in his age 17 year, and his score plummets as a result. Alexandrov takes awhile to adjust to North America in his first year away from home, and his strong second half doesn’t quite shine through in his overall scores. That’s just my opinion on it though. FWIW, Manny is pretty forthright about the limitations of his model.

 

[execwrite1]

The quants are taking over everything.

 

[Celtic Note]

Does this model take into account that the Blues didn’t have great draft position or high picks? Ultimately, I would guess our rating is less about taking high risk/reward players as a strategy and more about taking those types of player due to pick position.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Does this model take into account that the Blues didn’t have great draft position or high picks? Ultimately, I would guess our rating is less about taking high risk/reward players as a strategy and more about taking those types of player due to pick position.

I mean... yes and no. You’d be surprised at how much value people leave on the draft floor; Seider in the top 10? Yikes. What Manny’s model is really good at (a strength as much as a weakness) is eliminating all of the noise and looking just at production. A goal is a goal. A primary assist is a primary assist. Height/weight doesn’t matter. Character doesn’t matter. Pooping on your girlfriends car doesn’t matter. If you’re producing, and you’re doing it better than other people in your age group and league, you get cred.

This particular tableau chart shows averages though. So, not much info within the chart itself as far as individual player effects go. Zherenko and Michel weren’t on anybody’s radar, so their values are going to drag us down quite a bit, representing 2/5 of our overall haul. Eliminate them, and we likely look quite a bit better. But then... shouldn’t we have maybe taken better players there? It is what it is, obviously our scouts saw something in those two guys, and being 7th round picks it’s not a huge deal if they fail. But we shouldn’t complain when the model frowns on that. Obviously you hope that those players outperform the model, and make an impact. At this point though, given where those players are, and where players like them have ended up, not much to hope for. Had we taken, say, Bergeron out of the Q instead of Michel with the last pick, our score might look quite a bit better.

FWIW, Manny’s model liked the Alexandrov and Washkurak picks, and undervalues (imo) goalie picks. After that, it’s just an averages game

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

What picks by Dallas are making them stick out like a sore thumb?

 

[execwrite1]

I mean... yes and no. You’d be surprised at how much value people leave on the draft floor; Seider in the top 10? Yikes. What Manny’s model is really good at (a strength as much as a weakness) is eliminating all of the noise and looking just at production. A goal is a goal. A primary assist is a primary assist. Height/weight doesn’t matter. Character doesn’t matter. Pooping on your girlfriends car doesn’t matter. If you’re producing, and you’re doing it better than other people in your age group and league, you get cred.

This particular tableau chart shows averages though. So, not much info within the chart itself as far as individual player effects go. Zherenko and Michel weren’t on anybody’s radar, so their values are going to drag us down quite a bit, representing 2/5 of our overall haul. Eliminate them, and we likely look quite a bit better. But then... shouldn’t we have maybe taken better players there? It is what it is, obviously our scouts saw something in those two guys, and being 7th round picks it’s not a huge deal if they fail. But we shouldn’t complain when the model frowns on that. Obviously you hope that those players outperform the model, and make an impact. At this point though, given where those players are, and where players like them have ended up, not much to hope for. Had we taken, say, Bergeron out of the Q instead of Michel with the last pick, our score might look quite a bit better.

FWIW, Manny’s model liked the Alexandrov and Washkurak picks, and undervalues (imo) goalie picks. After that, it’s just an averages game

It seems like just taking raw data can skew everything. There are many cases, particularly in the QMJHL, where players post huge scoring stats and never have an impact in the NHL.