Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Draft tracker

jbron

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Apr 27, 2014
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At #61 or #62 you select the best available player regardless of the position. Remember that player in the future can always be added to a trade to bring in a desired position player later. Further it's best to take a boom or bust development type player as others have noted late second round picks don't have a high probability of making an NHL impact. Hopefully a descent prospect falls do to size or some other concern . Some notable players drafted in the last 7 years at #61/#62 are 2015 Bracco at #61 Kovacs #62. In 2013 Zach Sanford was drafted #61.
 

Brockon

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I agree with you that I'd rather not see us drafting a RW if there are equally good prospects available at positions of need. However, if the best player available is a RW and he's clearly ahead of prospects at more desirable positions, then we should draft that right winger. Don't forget that unless we trade up, our first pick will be at the 61st/62nd spot, which basicly doesn't have a lot more value then an early 3rd rounder. We should be happy if there's even a top-level prospect left at that point.

I'm quite aware of where we're drafting, which means that our views on the likelihood of said pick playing for us is equally low. The likelihood of a successful NHL career projects to 25% in the 2nd round and 12% in the 3rd and beyond cumulatively. So, we're looking at closer to a 15ish% chance that pick plays 200+ games for us. (Link at bottom of the post, Successful career defined as 200+ NHL games played by players drafted in the 90s. Numbers for the 2000s were done using a 100+ NHL games played threshold inflating the numbers to 44% for 2nd rounders).

I feel that a Dman is likely more impactful later in the draft than a forward, where the higher skillset players are often lacking - instead you're left with players lacking in: size, perceived hockey IQ, skating ability, opportunity on their squad due to overagers/stars making them wildcards due to lack of meaningful playing time in front of scouts. A well rounded unexceptional Dman can be taught to play a system and complement a skilled partner better than a forward can be molded to successfully complement linemates. I view the probability of finding one such D prospect as higher than finding a forward with similar addressable flaws/deficiencies at 61/62.

Though, given the state of San Antonio, our AHL team also needs a great deal of help - so any tweener would immensely benefit our AHL team giving us the ability to better develop high end prospects with a more winning system around them.

How Many Draft Picks Make It to the NHL?
 

Stealth JD

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Man...i hope the Blues can find the next great mid-round gem, like a Parayko or a Gaudreau. The prospect pool is a bit concerning with Thomas graduated and really only a few boom/bust types left in the organization. Mikkola looks promising, so do the goalies in the system...but another top-4D or top-6F from an unexpected source would really, really be nice.

1. Kyrou
2. Bokk
3. Mikkola
4. Fitzpatrick
5. Kostin
6. Husso
7. MacMac
8. Reinke
9. Perunovich
10. McGing
HM: Stevens, Walman, Foley

That's not great. Not horrible, but not great.
 
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simon IC

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The need for RHD with Pietrangelo and Parayko anchoring the right side makes that a lesser issue in my eyes. Unless you believe Pietrangelo isn't getting re-signed, there isn't a huge glaring need on RD in the short-mid term. A bottom pairing RD isn't a huge problem to acquire on the UFA market if Bortuzzo becomes untenable.

LD becomes a problem with JBo aging, Gunny's fit & future in question between age/injury, Edmundson's inconsistencies and only Dunn viewed as a long-term LD. That leaves 2 slots to fill on the left in the short-mid term if you are of the opinion that Eddy isn't a great fit for us. Perunovich and Mikkola are question marks for top 4 roles, leaving that top 4 LD gap needing filling - unless you believe DA is going to address it via trade/UFA. Is Dunn a 1 LD? 2 LD? 3 LD and PPQB specialist? Depending on your answer, Eddy is less of a liability if he's kept in the 2/3 LD role but there's still a gap to fill there.

The "consistent issue" part of my previous post was poorly worded - we're loaded with RW prospects, and have Tarasenko at the top of the depth chart on the RW. If the BPA is a RW, I'd be hesitant to snag another RW, given the lack of prospects elsewhere and our current long-term players in other positions. Given that our first pick is in the 2nd round we're not likely to be getting a blue chip prospect, the player will be a multi year project - I'd like to see that player possibly able to take over for an older player who doesn't project beyond the short term for us. That list in my eyes is JBo, Gunny, Bortz, Maroon, Bozak, Eddy, Perron, Steen and a 1/2 LW. This leaves multiple openings on the LD and LW to fill, plus a middle 6 centre if Thomas is kept on the wing, with a number of prospects in our system that project as 2/3rd pairing LD and middle/bottom sixers. We should be looking for a potential 1 LD project or defensively coachable LW with top line upside as only Schwartz is a top 6 LW with term.

@Beauterham does this better justify why I view LD/LW as a 2nd round target for need? Later round picks tend to be bottom 6/bottom 4 type players if they reach the NHL - a 2nd rounder is more probable projecting into a top 6/top 4 role (though far from a sure-fire thing). We lack top end prospects everywhere except the RW, so I'd be irritated to see a RW drafted with our 1st available pick.
Good post, I completely agree that LD is more of an immediate need. Even if RD is locked up for years with Pietrangelo and Parayko, I would still like another long term project type of prospect on RD. I am also not as convinced as some on Reinke's NHL readiness. I am particularly concerned about his defensive game. I think he is at least another year away.
 

MortiestOfMortys

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Man...i hope the Blues can find the next great mid-round gem, like a Parayko or a Gaudreau. The prospect pool is a bit concerning with Thomas graduated and really only a few boom/bust types left in the organization. Mikkola looks promising, so do the goalies in the system...but another top-4D or top-6F from an unexpected source would really, really be nice.

1. Kyrou
2. Bokk
3. Mikkola
4. Fitzpatrick
5. Kostin
6. Husso
7. MacMac
8. Reinke
9. Perunovich
10. McGing
HM: Stevens, Walman, Foley

That's not great. Not horrible, but not great.

I think you’re vastly overrating Mikkola here, but that’s a conversation for another time.

I think what your list shows is that there are no positions where we couldn’t use more help. Foley is also a dark horse that could be right there with that top group next year, depending on his recovery. Even still, another forward makes me a lot more comfortable. I like the group of Reinke, Perunovich, Mikkola, and Tucker on defense (not to mention Andersson), but another big name is needed in that group for sure. And Husso, Fitzy, and Hofer are good goalies, but the first two have battled inconsistency and confidence issues throughout their careers, and Hofer is several years away. If we could snag a goalie relatively early (there are some very good ones this year), that would go a long way.
 

execwrite1

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Mar 30, 2018
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Unless the #62 pick candidate is vastly superior at a forward position, I would definitely lean toward a LHD.

Our forwards in the NHL now are generally younger and there are two or three in San Antonio who seem to be good NHL future players.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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It may be worthwhile to schedule a social event on the night of the draft. The Blues won't be trading into the first round, and they won't be doing anything terribly exciting (with no pick until the end of the 2nd round).

But I would trade that EVERY year for the post-season run we've enjoyed.
 

PocketNines

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62, 93, 155, and then whoever wasn't drafted that the Blues still want. And no time to even follow it beforehand. How sweet it is.

They're set in net hopefully for the next 10 years. They are set on RD for awhile.

They could use an elite LD, and then they could use any breakout forward of any kind. Maybe they can go for some DeBrincat style snipers. They can rebuild their depth but they're young in key positions & need just to focus on drafting quality players to keep feeding this roster.
 

LGB

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Feb 4, 2019
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Good post, I completely agree that LD is more of an immediate need. Even if RD is locked up for years with Pietrangelo and Parayko, I would still like another long term project type of prospect on RD. I am also not as convinced as some on Reinke's NHL readiness. I am particularly concerned about his defensive game. I think he is at least another year away.
Reinke was on the ice for the lowest rate of GA/60 of any Rampage player at 5v5.
 

Coach Nate

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Reinke was on the ice for the lowest rate of GA/60 of any Rampage player at 5v5.

The Rampage blue line was atrocious. Reinke had a terrific offensive season, but he still has a ton of work to do defensively. He routinely lost his man who would end up scoring. In the AHL. Its fixable, but he's got a lot of work to do.
 
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LGB

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The Rampage blue line was atrocious. Reinke had a terrific offensive season, but he still has a ton of work to do defensively. He routinely lost his man who would end up scoring. In the AHL. Its fixable, but he's got a lot of work to do.
Interesting. Definitely will defer to your opinion when it comes to the Rampage. Would you say he tilts the ice resulting in a low total of shots against when he's on? Because when he was on the ice the Rampage only gave up 1.945 goals against per 60 minutes. Wish there was shot data for the AHL as well.
 

Coach Nate

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Interesting. Definitely will defer to your opinion when it comes to the Rampage. Would you say he tilts the ice resulting in a low total of shots against when he's on? Because when he was on the ice the Rampage only gave up 1.945 goals against per 60 minutes. Wish there was shot data for the AHL as well.

I love that they are trying to get these stats going, but I'd take them with a huge grain of salt as individual TOI stats aren't allowed to be released to anyone but team personnel.
 

Blueston

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The Rampage blue line was atrocious. Reinke had a terrific offensive season, but he still has a ton of work to do defensively. He routinely lost his man who would end up scoring. In the AHL. Its fixable, but he's got a lot of work to do.
How would you grade Mikkola?
 

LGB

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Feb 4, 2019
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I love that they are trying to get these stats going, but I'd take them with a huge grain of salt as individual TOI stats aren't allowed to be released to anyone but team personnel.
Damn did not know that. Seems kind of odd that they'd keep TOI stats under wraps like that. For the record I wasn't trying to say Reinke was the best defender on the Rampage or anything like that, but it did seem very unlikely to me that someone with such a good GA rate would be a bad defender. Figured he had to be keeping the puck out of the net one way or another.
 

Coach Nate

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Damn did not know that. Seems kind of odd that they'd keep TOI stats under wraps like that. For the record I wasn't trying to say Reinke was the best defender on the Rampage or anything like that, but it did seem very unlikely to me that someone with such a good GA rate would be a bad defender. Figured he had to be keeping the puck out of the net one way or another.

He's not terrible defensively, he got better as the year went on, but when he screws up, it's usually catastrophic.
 
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Blueston

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A shutdown defender with limited to no offensive potential.

He's very good in his own zone. Decent skater with an underrated shot that he doesnt use very often.

Needs to be paired with a puck mover or you're looking at long stretches of the other team possessing the puck.
How close you think he is to being ready?
 

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